Author Topic: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19  (Read 14765 times)

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Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #60 on: December 23, 2019, 04:58:41 PM »

Offline colincb

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SOS is a nearly meaningless stat as poorer teams are going to have higher SOS than weaker teams especially if there's a difference in the strength of conferences. IOW, you beat a team and your SOS goes down and their SOS goes up. For instance, in 2018-19 the 8 EC playoff teams had 8 of 9 easiest schedules and 6 of the 7 bottom feeders in the WC had the toughest schedules. I look at how many 500+ teams you've played, and the Cs are in line with the other top teams. IOW, scheduling advantages are diminishing by now.

In any case, you can make a very strong case for the Cs being ranked behind MIL and LAL in the 3-5 range given their record, their margin of victory, road wins - home losses, and records vs .500+ teams. DEN isn't in my top 5 and I cannot see how could anyone could consider them to be the 2nd best team in the NBA ahead of the Lakers. Maybe they get into the top echelon once the Jokic gets better conditioned, but they're not there yet.

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #61 on: December 23, 2019, 06:01:12 PM »

Online Neurotic Guy

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Not saying that I think the C’s are with LAL and Milwaukee in the top tier, but the C’s 2019-20 ceiling is still untapped.  The Jays are still discovering what they are capable of, Kanter is just hitting his stride, the bench has unrealized potential, and Cs have been playing playoff-level basketball without their defensive leader and without Hayward. C’s are the most capable team in the league to withstand an injury to a top player in the playoffs.

I am really psyched to see the fully jelled and healthy version of this team. 

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #62 on: December 23, 2019, 07:10:15 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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I've been trying to write what it is about the Celtics that gives them a superior rating against other NBA teams.

Often, the rating process leans heavily on "surface" stats and then, the number of star players.

The Celtics create the following challenge for opposing defenses:
Too many options. You collapse on one? He has two legit, big moment scorers waiting for the ball. This was evident last night, when midway through the third quarter the Hornets just ran out of answers.

Each night, one of the big three can carry a quarter or a half. These players rarely (they do from time to time) watch one of the others "go off." There's a pretty well choreographed "distribution" that goes on between the three. Tatum's passing here also, has improved.

These Celtics don't get trapped chucking threes. Kemba will never have Kyrie's or IT's brilliant driving ability, but, he makes up for it in a dozen ways. The big three go inside quickly and effectively.

The Celtics use their bigs pretty well on offense and it integrates with the "big three's" game very well. Theis, Kanter and Grant look oK, They are not "hurting the team" at either end.

Finally, the Celtic's are a defensive team....3rd in the NBA. this further contributes to their offensive success as the opponent wears down into the fourth quarter.

No jinx here, but the Celtics don't get blown out. They don't collapse. They are very tough late in games.

The bench has looked OK the last 4 games. If they could keep improving? 

Lakers have a lot to deal with.
Bucks are deep and have size. I think their bench array is at or near the top of the league.
The Celtics are third. Too much weight was given to losing to an inconsistent 76'ers team on the second night of a back to back.

The Heat really didn't give this Celtics team that much trouble in their last game. I'd put Clips right up there if their best player didn't skip every other game.

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #63 on: December 23, 2019, 10:49:42 PM »

Offline Somebody

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SOS is a nearly meaningless stat as poorer teams are going to have higher SOS than weaker teams especially if there's a difference in the strength of conferences. IOW, you beat a team and your SOS goes down and their SOS goes up. For instance, in 2018-19 the 8 EC playoff teams had 8 of 9 easiest schedules and 6 of the 7 bottom feeders in the WC had the toughest schedules. I look at how many 500+ teams you've played, and the Cs are in line with the other top teams. IOW, scheduling advantages are diminishing by now.

In any case, you can make a very strong case for the Cs being ranked behind MIL and LAL in the 3-5 range given their record, their margin of victory, road wins - home losses, and records vs .500+ teams. DEN isn't in my top 5 and I cannot see how could anyone could consider them to be the 2nd best team in the NBA ahead of the Lakers. Maybe they get into the top echelon once the Jokic gets better conditioned, but they're not there yet.
SRS is semi-reliable at this point though. It's basically MOV taking SOS into account - and we're cruising along with an SRS over 7 (the usual range for a contender is 5-8).
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Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #64 on: December 24, 2019, 04:07:20 AM »

Offline colincb

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SOS is a nearly meaningless stat as poorer teams are going to have higher SOS than weaker teams especially if there's a difference in the strength of conferences. IOW, you beat a team and your SOS goes down and their SOS goes up. For instance, in 2018-19 the 8 EC playoff teams had 8 of 9 easiest schedules and 6 of the 7 bottom feeders in the WC had the toughest schedules. I look at how many 500+ teams you've played, and the Cs are in line with the other top teams. IOW, scheduling advantages are diminishing by now.

In any case, you can make a very strong case for the Cs being ranked behind MIL and LAL in the 3-5 range given their record, their margin of victory, road wins - home losses, and records vs .500+ teams. DEN isn't in my top 5 and I cannot see how could anyone could consider them to be the 2nd best team in the NBA ahead of the Lakers. Maybe they get into the top echelon once the Jokic gets better conditioned, but they're not there yet.
SRS is semi-reliable at this point though. It's basically MOV taking SOS into account - and we're cruising along with an SRS over 7 (the usual range for a contender is 5-8).

SRS is semi-reliable only because MOV is very reliable as an indicator. Look at the miscellaneous stats below and you'll see SRS is predominately affected by MOV, With the two conferences being roughly equal this season, SOS won't tell you much.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020.html#misc_stats::9


Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #65 on: December 24, 2019, 04:22:08 AM »

Offline Somebody

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SOS is a nearly meaningless stat as poorer teams are going to have higher SOS than weaker teams especially if there's a difference in the strength of conferences. IOW, you beat a team and your SOS goes down and their SOS goes up. For instance, in 2018-19 the 8 EC playoff teams had 8 of 9 easiest schedules and 6 of the 7 bottom feeders in the WC had the toughest schedules. I look at how many 500+ teams you've played, and the Cs are in line with the other top teams. IOW, scheduling advantages are diminishing by now.

In any case, you can make a very strong case for the Cs being ranked behind MIL and LAL in the 3-5 range given their record, their margin of victory, road wins - home losses, and records vs .500+ teams. DEN isn't in my top 5 and I cannot see how could anyone could consider them to be the 2nd best team in the NBA ahead of the Lakers. Maybe they get into the top echelon once the Jokic gets better conditioned, but they're not there yet.
SRS is semi-reliable at this point though. It's basically MOV taking SOS into account - and we're cruising along with an SRS over 7 (the usual range for a contender is 5-8).

SRS is semi-reliable only because MOV is very reliable as an indicator. Look at the miscellaneous stats below and you'll see SRS is predominately affected by MOV, With the two conferences being roughly equal this season, SOS won't tell you much.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2020.html#misc_stats::9
Yeah I know that MOV is very reliable as well as SRS being predominantly affected by MOV. We'll probably need 75% or more of the season to be played out until we can say anything definitive about the Celtics by looking at SRS, but I love the current signs that I'm seeing when we've been mostly in the 5-8 range with key players being out for significant stretches of the season so far (Hayward and Smart).
Jaylen Brown for All-NBA

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #66 on: February 03, 2020, 09:49:08 AM »

Offline RMO

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28579205/nba-power-rankings-week-16-raptors-blazers-climb-jazz-fall

I know these don't matter but if it's a ranking based mostly on the last week how do the lakers have such a firm hold on number two week after week?  They were 1-1 this week (with a postponed game against the Clippers - a team they have yet to beat) and last week they held on to it despite losses to the Celtics and sixers and wins against the New York teams.

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #67 on: February 03, 2020, 10:08:16 AM »

Offline Somebody

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28579205/nba-power-rankings-week-16-raptors-blazers-climb-jazz-fall

I know these don't matter but if it's a ranking based mostly on the last week how do the lakers have such a firm hold on number two week after week?  They were 1-1 this week (with a postponed game against the Clippers - a team they have yet to beat) and last week they held on to it despite losses to the Celtics and sixers and wins against the New York teams.
It's ESPN, they're pretty much the Lakers' media mouthpiece.
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Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #68 on: February 03, 2020, 10:11:02 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Its not based just on the last week. Its setup like the CFB polls, your last week moves you up and down your previous ranking. Lakers are still setup with a clear second best record in the league, plus you really think you're moving them down after Kobe died a game was cancelled and they lost a tough game where Lillard went Supernova?

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #69 on: February 03, 2020, 10:17:38 AM »

Offline footey

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I think 6 is about right.

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #70 on: February 03, 2020, 10:40:31 AM »

Offline RMO

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Its not based just on the last week. Its setup like the CFB polls, your last week moves you up and down your previous ranking. Lakers are still setup with a clear second best record in the league, plus you really think you're moving them down after Kobe died a game was cancelled and they lost a tough game where Lillard went Supernova?

I always thought it was just a week by week thing based on their most recent play.

From the ESPN page:  Throughout the regular season, our panel (ESPN's Tim MacMahon, Andre' Snellings, Royce Young and Bobby Marks and The Undefeated's Marc J. Spears) is ranking all 30 teams from top to bottom, taking stock of which teams are playing the best basketball now and which teams are looking most like title contenders.

Again, I know it doesn't matter at all and probably not worth my time to be too concerned about it.  I just find it interesting they've held on to that spot the past two weeks when they've lost to the Celtics, Sixers and Blazers while managing to beat the New York teams and Sacramento.

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #71 on: February 03, 2020, 11:00:31 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Nope, its exactly like the AP college polls. Not a true snapshot how are you playing right now.

Re: ESPN Weekly Power Ranking: now at 3 on 12/9/19
« Reply #72 on: February 03, 2020, 12:46:34 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Nope, its exactly like the AP college polls. Not a true snapshot how are you playing right now.
Yup. When Boston began their mini slide a few weeks ago they were third, had a rough week, and was still third. It wasn't until the next week where the slide continued that they were moved out of that third spot.