Since Noel signed the QO, he'd have to give up his birdrights to come here. We're over the cap so we have to create cap space to resign him this offseason. It'd be INCREDIBLY hard to do that so he'd likely be a 1 season rental.
Not quite. We'd be able to resign him for up to 120% of his 2017-18 salary, but there's no way he signs for $5 million after the contract he turned down this summer. And I'd expect him to decline any trade to a team that isn't willing/able to sign him to a big contract long term (since he effectively has a no trade clause this season)
Edit: As mmmmm mentioned above we could also sign him with the mid-level exception, which would be about $8.5 million. Still not a salary he would consider.
To be honest, I don't have any problem with signing Noel to a big contract and taking a gamble on him.
He's actually playing some outstanding basketball for the Mavs so far, averaging 11.5 Points, 8.5 rebounds, 2 steals and 2 blocks (100% FG, 83% FT) over their first two games - and he's doing that in only 23.5 MPG.
And this is from a kid who is 6'11" with a 7'4" wingspan yet has the speed and agility of a wing. The upside on this kid as a defender and rebounder is immense - his skill set is a perfect compliment for Al Horford right now, and would be a perfect compliment for Jayson Tatum if he moves permanently into the PF spot moving forward.
He might never be selected to an All-Star team (though it's not out of the question) but he could very easily become an elite defensive anchor (A Gobert / Chandler / Whiteside / DJ type) - and those guys have proven to be major difference makers for their teams in the past.