The Terry Rozier experiment

[HomerSapien]

I think Patrick Beverly would be a good replacement.  Hopefully he would take to a role on the 2nd unit better than Rozier, and in a pinch he is capable of being a starter even if he isn't capable of scoring quite the same way as Rozier is.  What I like about him is that he is an intense defender while being an ok 3 point shooter.

A 3-teamer with Phx and LAC could get the job done if we were to move on from Scary Terry.  Phx has a 1st round pick from Milwaukee that is protected 1-3 and 17-30 in 2019, and then 1-7 in 2020, so if we could actually extract a 1st for Rozier that'd be an ok pick to target (it'll be a late 2020 1st unless Giannis gets hurt).

http://tradenba.com/trades/ByJxLVUzE

[RockinRyA]

If there's a player I want replacing Rozier right now, its Avery Bradley. But it doesnt look to be feasible.

[Spicoli]

Never in a million years would i ever think i would say this but i would much rather have Rondo at this point. Rozier must go.

[knuckleballer]

What are the chances Jeremy Lin gets bought out?  He's not doing much for the Hawks and his $13.7 mill salary will make it difficult for a team to trade for him.  I'd love to replace Rozier with him.  Of course, if he is bought out, it will be after the trade deadline.

[gpap]

Rozier sucked last night and I didn't particularly appreciate him kissing up to Dwayne Wade after the game either.

It's bad enough I hate Wade, but with how bad Rozier played, I just thought that was a REALLY bad look.

Curious if there are still people that want this knucklehead to be the starting point guard of the team over Kyrie.

[gpap]

Kyrie is injury prone and whether we like it or not, TR is an ideal guy to have fill in if we ever need him.

Not only do I not like it, but so far, it hasn't even been true.

In 41 games this season, Kyrie has only missed 2 and that's cause some punk tried to gouge his eyes out.

How is that being injury prone?

[Jiri Welsch]

Kyrie is injury prone and whether we like it or not, TR is an ideal guy to have fill in if we ever need him.

Not only do I not like it, but so far, it hasn't even been true.

In 41 games this season, Kyrie has only missed 2 and that's cause some punk tried to gouge his eyes out.

How is that being injury prone?

Historically injury prone

[gouki88]

Kyrie is injury prone and whether we like it or not, TR is an ideal guy to have fill in if we ever need him.

Not only do I not like it, but so far, it hasn't even been true.

In 41 games this season, Kyrie has only missed 2 and that's cause some punk tried to gouge his eyes out.

How is that being injury prone?

Historically injury prone

Again, not nearly enough to handicap our bench like we are.

[GRADYCOLNON]

Rozier has no trade value (only a second rounder)

Put yourself in another team's position.  Even if they want him because they believe in him, why would they bid up Rozier against themselves?  They won't, so no team makes any bids, therefore keeping his price at a second round pick. 

If the Celtics make an effort to trade him, other teams perceive the Celtics as unwilling to pay their own player.  This prompts doubt to creep into their minds.  What is wrong with him that they won't consider paying him, or they think he is going to get paid more than they value him, which makes them doubt that they should pay for him. 

The feedback from the Celtics' interest to trade him ruins Rozier's trade value.  So all of these trade ideas will fail immediately.  And this should be a good thing for the Celtics.  As they did with Smart, they have pushed his value so low during the season that other teams lose interest in overpaying by letting doubt creep in the door.  The Celtics really don't have any doubts over what Rozier is worth to them, so they cut the legs out to stack their deck for negotiating.

The reason why I believe that the specific role that Rozier is being suppressed artificially by the team is because his role is not his ideal role.  Off the bench, he spends a decent amount of time playing off the ball and not in his natural position with the ball in his hands.   (Now, the Celtics have plenty of reasons to justify why they've boxed up his role that deflects away from my hunch with plausible deniability.  And that is fine with me, but it doesn't make me shy away from the actual outcomes).

Some players naturally succeed with the balls directly in their hands, and I think his two-man game with Horford also really helps his game.  And we have seen him turn the 'corner' with good games when he is in the starting lineup when Irving takes a break.  So I don't think he is worthless as a suggested in the beginning.  But relatively, as the restricted free agency approaches, his value is squat. 

This is the silver lining and we shouldn't panic over his struggles by trading him.  Just remember the simple and elegant principle of "buy low, sell high".  We don't want to sell Rozier now because he is low. 

[hwangjini_1]

Rozier has no trade value (only a second rounder)

Put yourself in another team's position.  Even if they want him because they believe in him, why would they bid up Rozier against themselves?  They won't, so no team makes any bids, therefore keeping his price at a second round pick.

If the Celtics make an effort to trade him, other teams perceive the Celtics as unwilling to pay their own player.  This prompts doubt to creep into their minds.  What is wrong with him that they won't consider paying him, or they think he is going to get paid more than they value him, which makes them doubt that they should pay for him. 

The feedback from the Celtics' interest to trade him ruins Rozier's trade value.  So all of these trade ideas will fail immediately.  And this should be a good thing for the Celtics.  As they did with Smart, they have pushed his value so low during the season that other teams lose interest in overpaying by letting doubt creep in the door.  The Celtics really don't have any doubts over what Rozier is worth to them, so they cut the legs out to stack their deck for negotiating.

The reason why I believe that the specific role that Rozier is being suppressed artificially by the team is because his role is not his ideal role.  Off the bench, he spends a decent amount of time playing off the ball and not in his natural position with the ball in his hands.   (Now, the Celtics have plenty of reasons to justify why they've boxed up his role that deflects away from my hunch with plausible deniability.  And that is fine with me, but it doesn't make me shy away from the actual outcomes).

Some players naturally succeed with the balls directly in their hands, and I think his two-man game with Horford also really helps his game.  And we have seen him turn the 'corner' with good games when he is in the starting lineup when Irving takes a break.  So I don't think he is worthless as a suggested in the beginning.  But relatively, as the restricted free agency approaches, his value is squat. 

This is the silver lining and we shouldn't panic over his struggles by trading him.  Just remember the simple and elegant principle of "buy low, sell high".  We don't want to sell Rozier now because he is low.

do you have any links or other evidence of the bolded above? or are you simply conjecturing here?

[RodyTur10]

Rozier has no trade value (only a second rounder)

Put yourself in another team's position.  Even if they want him because they believe in him, why would they bid up Rozier against themselves?  They won't, so no team makes any bids, therefore keeping his price at a second round pick. 

If the Celtics make an effort to trade him, other teams perceive the Celtics as unwilling to pay their own player.  This prompts doubt to creep into their minds.  What is wrong with him that they won't consider paying him, or they think he is going to get paid more than they value him, which makes them doubt that they should pay for him. 

The feedback from the Celtics' interest to trade him ruins Rozier's trade value.  So all of these trade ideas will fail immediately.  And this should be a good thing for the Celtics.  As they did with Smart, they have pushed his value so low during the season that other teams lose interest in overpaying by letting doubt creep in the door.  The Celtics really don't have any doubts over what Rozier is worth to them, so they cut the legs out to stack their deck for negotiating.

The reason why I believe that the specific role that Rozier is being suppressed artificially by the team is because his role is not his ideal role.  Off the bench, he spends a decent amount of time playing off the ball and not in his natural position with the ball in his hands.   (Now, the Celtics have plenty of reasons to justify why they've boxed up his role that deflects away from my hunch with plausible deniability.  And that is fine with me, but it doesn't make me shy away from the actual outcomes).

Some players naturally succeed with the balls directly in their hands, and I think his two-man game with Horford also really helps his game.  And we have seen him turn the 'corner' with good games when he is in the starting lineup when Irving takes a break.  So I don't think he is worthless as a suggested in the beginning.  But relatively, as the restricted free agency approaches, his value is squat. 

This is the silver lining and we shouldn't panic over his struggles by trading him. Just remember the simple and elegant principle of "buy low, sell high".  We don't want to sell Rozier now because he is low.

I agree that Rozier has significantly less value than last summer, however I believe he still should provide a reasonable asset in a trade with a team that wants to re-sign him. To illutrate this, there could be 4 candidates to sign Rozier from (perhaps) Phoenix perspective:

1 Boston Celtics
2 Phoenix Suns
3 Orlando Magic
4 Chicago Bulls

Example A (Boston doesn't trade Rozier)

In this situation Boston has the bird rights and option to match any offer. Boston would probably only be interested in doing this if other teams don't come up with a big offer, and at the same time Phoenix and other teams will know this, because of our cap situation. So these teams will see an opportunity to pick him off and try to outbid each other. Phoenix could think that Boston won't match above 48/4, but Chicago will offer 56/4 at a maximum and Orlando will even offer 64/4. So to top that their offer will be 72/4 and Phoenix ends up paying Terry Rozier 18 million a year.

Example B (Phoenix does trade for Rozier)

In this situation Phoenix has the bird rights and option to match any offer. Phoenix wants to re-sign Rozier, unless there's a gross overpay. They limit themselves to match a 80/4 offer, above that they will take their loss. Other teams know that Phoenix just traded for Rozier and will be highly motivated to keep him and thus a huge offer is needed to get him. This discourages other teams to go after him and they make other (unrestricted) free agents a priority. At the end of free agency it turns out that Orlando has used it's cap space, but Chicago has not and they offer 56/4. This is within the boundaries that Phoenix set, and Phoenix ends up paying Terry Rozier 14 million a year.

Example C (Chicago Bulls trades for Rozier)

In this situation Chicago has the bird rights and option to match any offer. Chicago wants to re-sign Rozier and especially don't want to lose an asset. They limit themselves to match a 72/4 offer, above that they will take their loss. Phoenix and Orlando know that Chicago just traded for Rozier and will be highly motivated to keep him and thus a huge offer is needed to get him. This discourages other teams like Orlando. But now Phoenix has to put an offer on the table that Chicago doesn't match. They put out their maximum offer 80/4 and Chicago doesn't match. Phoenix ends up paying Terry Rozier 20 million a year. 

So Phoenix could be saving 16 or 24 million on the contract for Rozier by making a trade before the deadline (Example B). That's worth a decent asset I think. 

[mctyson]

I think this board overrates Rozier as a playmaker.  He only creates offense for himself, so there are only a few teams that will want him as a starting PG.

He is not going to make the kind of splash in free agency people think he will.

[mr. dee]

The second unit needs a playmaker, not a tunnel vision, shoot first guard.

[SHAQATTACK]

He plays hard for himself.  His IQ floor vision from a play maker standpoint is very poor IMO .  He just doesn't play like a point guard or pass enough . He is not Kyrie 2.0 ., lights out  offensive specialist. 

[MJohnnyboy]

Time to put Terry in the doghouse.

I 100% believe that the team would be better off without him in the rotation.

That's not a shot at him either. Terry does not suck. He just does not fit what this team is trying to do. He needs a new team where he can start. He's stat-chasing for his new contract, and it's hurting the team.