Brown, Celtics agree on 4 years-115 million

[Fierce1]

I told you guys that Jaylen is worth around 24-27 million, he'll get around 26.75 million per year if he doesn't hit the unlikely bonuses.

He's being paid big money because of his potential.

It remains to be seen if he's really worth the money he got.

[Somebody]

I told you guys that Jaylen is worth around 24-27 million, he'll get around 26.75 million per year if he doesn't hit the unlikely bonuses.

He's being paid big money because of his potential.

It remains to be seen if he's really worth the money he got.

His potential is also a part of his current value, you pay for potential lol. His value will drop if he doesn't improve as he ages.

[Muzzy66]

I told you guys that Jaylen is worth around 24-27 million, he'll get around 26.75 million per year if he doesn't hit the unlikely bonuses.

Being signed to it and being worth it are two different things.

He's being signed to that number in the hope that he will one day prove worthy of it.  This is yet to be seen, and my level of confidence that it will happen currently lies somewhere around 40%-45%. 

But Danny and the Celtics scouts know Jaylen and basketball better then I do, so I'm hoping he ends up right on this one.

[Kuberski33]

I told you guys that Jaylen is worth around 24-27 million, he'll get around 26.75 million per year if he doesn't hit the unlikely bonuses.

He's being paid big money because of his potential.

It remains to be seen if he's really worth the money he got.

And this is uniquely an NBA thing. The impact of star players is so big that teams are willing to pay for potential vs risking losing a future star.

[ozgod]

Good move. Some team is going to give him that in RFA anyway. He's probably not worth it at this point but he's 22, he has a lot of upside to grow into it. If he doesn't then we can trade him. The downside for us is if he significantly underperforms it which I don't think he will. If he underperforms it but only by a little bit he's still going to be very tradable, there's going to be teams out there desperate for a young, promising 3 and D player like Jaylen.

It's also a marker for the absolute minimum we can expect Tatum to command next season, and very likely more than that.

[keevsnick]

Ainge didn't trade him for Butler, George or Kawhi. Now he gives him 107/4, and you can say what you want about his drafting record he doesn't really give out bad contracts. So I think this is pretty simple: Ainge believes in Jaylen.

[action781]

While its far from perfect, I still like to check fivethirtyeight's CARMELO ratings once in a while since I haven't yet found a better algorithm to estimate the actual future values of players.  Fwiw, the CARMELO model projects Jaylen as worth $140 over the next 5 years, so this contract is pretty much right in that ballpark.

[Somebody]

Ainge did not pay a premium. He got Jaylen on a contract that is less than Jaylen is worth (the max). He saved the team $15mil over 4 years with this contract.

Great business for the Celtics. Not so much for Jaylen. He left a lot of money on the table.

Paying $115M over 4 years to a guy with career highs of 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists - you don't consider that to be paying a premium?

That's an interesting perspective.

I mean, I understand the concept of "potential" and the argument that if Ainge didn't pay him somebody else would.  But does the fact that SOMEBODY out there is willing to pay him that necessarily mean he is worth that?

I don't know. 

I'm a little worried about this one.  It's a big commitment from the team, who already has max money tied up in Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker and still needs to allow for an extension to Jayson Tatum (which will almost certainly be a max).  Even if Hayward opts out next year that's still three max or near max contacts allocated to Kemba, Brown and Tatum - will the team have enough cap space left over to build a contender around that core?

Is Brown going to develop into the borderline All-Star that he'd have to become in order to justify that type of money?

I guess we will find out.

Yeah I'd be willing to pay him the max if I was a GM

[gouki88]

While its far from perfect, I still like to check fivethirtyeight's CARMELO ratings once in a while since I haven't yet found a better algorithm to estimate the actual future values of players.  Fwiw, the CARMELO model projects Jaylen as worth $140 over the next 5 years, so this contract is pretty much right in that ballpark.

Only $140? 

[keevsnick]

Also Jaylen apparently hired Jason Glushon as his agent for this negotiation, other clients include Al Horford and Jrue Holiday. Given that all three of those guys have received contracts that have at various points been considered an "overpay" I'd say the agent is doing a fine job.

[Androslav]

I like the deal very much.
2 way wings this young are usually max guys.

[LilRip]

I hope DA knows what he’s doing. I keep expecting a trade to go down eventually with one of our wings.

[Who]

Ainge did not pay a premium. He got Jaylen on a contract that is less than Jaylen is worth (the max). He saved the team $15mil over 4 years with this contract.

Great business for the Celtics. Not so much for Jaylen. He left a lot of money on the table.

Paying $115M over 4 years to a guy with career highs of 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists - you don't consider that to be paying a premium?

That's an interesting perspective.

I mean, I understand the concept of "potential" and the argument that if Ainge didn't pay him somebody else would.  But does the fact that SOMEBODY out there is willing to pay him that necessarily mean he is worth that?

I don't know. 

I'm a little worried about this one.  It's a big commitment from the team, who already has max money tied up in Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker and still needs to allow for an extension to Jayson Tatum (which will almost certainly be a max).  Even if Hayward opts out next year that's still three max or near max contacts allocated to Kemba, Brown and Tatum - will the team have enough cap space left over to build a contender around that core?

Is Brown going to develop into the borderline All-Star that he'd have to become in order to justify that type of money?

I guess we will find out.

I already rate Jaylen Brown as a borderline All-Star. It is not about potential for me. He is already there. That is why I do not think Ainge paid a premium for Jaylen here. He is paying him what he is worth (a little less actually). And that is ignoring Jaylen's ability to improve further.

I believe his statistics undervalue his impact on the court.

I love Jaylen's defense. I think he is a terrific defender. I think it is undervalued just how much he can change things & impact opponents with his combination of size, quickness, strength and willingness to dig in defensively.

His points per game numbers are artificially deflated by having to play with so many selfish shot-happy teammates. On a different team, Jaylen is comfortably in that 17-20ppg range. He has a good outside jump-shot. Is lethal in transition. Can get to the basket some and to the FT line. Good well-balanced arsenal of scoring for a 3rd option.

Put together the scoring, the defense and quality rebounding and you have a player who is ALREADY a borderline All-Star. Ainge paid the going rate (a bit less actually) for such a player.

And that is ignoring Jaylen's capacity to improve in future years.


......

That is why I do not believe Ainge paid a premium here.

[Somebody]

Ainge did not pay a premium. He got Jaylen on a contract that is less than Jaylen is worth (the max). He saved the team $15mil over 4 years with this contract.

Great business for the Celtics. Not so much for Jaylen. He left a lot of money on the table.

Paying $115M over 4 years to a guy with career highs of 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.6 assists - you don't consider that to be paying a premium?

That's an interesting perspective.

I mean, I understand the concept of "potential" and the argument that if Ainge didn't pay him somebody else would.  But does the fact that SOMEBODY out there is willing to pay him that necessarily mean he is worth that?

I don't know. 

I'm a little worried about this one.  It's a big commitment from the team, who already has max money tied up in Gordon Hayward and Kemba Walker and still needs to allow for an extension to Jayson Tatum (which will almost certainly be a max).  Even if Hayward opts out next year that's still three max or near max contacts allocated to Kemba, Brown and Tatum - will the team have enough cap space left over to build a contender around that core?

Is Brown going to develop into the borderline All-Star that he'd have to become in order to justify that type of money?

I guess we will find out.

I already rate Jaylen Brown as a borderline All-Star. It is not about potential for me. He is already there. That is why I do not think Ainge paid a premium for Jaylen here. He is paying him what he is worth (a little less actually). And that is ignoring Jaylen's ability to improve further.

I believe his statistics undervalue his impact on the court.

I love Jaylen's defense. I think he is a terrific defender. I think it is undervalued just how much he can change things & impact opponents with his combination of size, quickness, strength and willingness to dig in defensively.

His points per game numbers are artificially deflated by having to play with so many selfish shot-happy teammates. On a different team, Jaylen is comfortably in that 17-20ppg range. He has a good outside jump-shot. Is lethal in transition. Can get to the basket some and to the FT line. Good well-balanced arsenal of scoring for a 3rd option.

Put together the scoring, the defense and quality rebounding and you have a player who is ALREADY a borderline All-Star. Ainge paid the going rate (a bit less actually) for such a player.

And that is ignoring Jaylen's capacity to improve in future years.


......

That is why I do not believe Ainge paid a premium here.

^this, TP Who. I've been trying to push this point for so long lol.

[jbpats]

Not going to complain about the cost, it's today's NBA as absurd as it is, and while it seems high it is probably fair.

I am just not sold on the player, Jaylen is good, not great. I was one of the pro trade him for Sabonis people around here.. and that said i'd much rather have Sabonis' 4/75 mil vs Browns 4/115 mil deals.