CelticsStrong
Celtics Basketball => Celtics Talk => Topic started by: Mempitt18 on September 18, 2017, 10:32:04 AM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sWX7sWB9km8&t=334s
Breaking down the top 3 candidates for NBA ROTY, including Jayson Tatum
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IMO players who will get heavy mins have the advantage.
Fultz and Lonzo will start for their teams. Most other rookies picked early in the draft play for weak teams and should see lots of mins.
Tatum will have to do twice as well to compete with them.
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IMO players who will get heavy mins have the advantage.
Fultz and Lonzo will start for their teams. Most other rookies picked early in the draft play for weak teams and should see lots of mins.
Tatum will have to do twice as well to compete with them.
I agree and would add, durability.
Dennis Smith Jr. will play 28/30 minutes too. He is my favorite for ROY.
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Yeah I agree with you, I do wonder if there's a case where Tatum is too impressive to keep off the floor and ends up logging 25-30 minutes like Smart as a rookie
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If Tatum is able to earn 25 minutes a game on this year's team, he will be ROY. This will be the case for three reasons:
1) His per game numbers, which matter to voters, will be respectable.
2) He'll get a bonus for team performance.
3) If he's able to get that many minutes on this Celtics team, it means his play will have been very, very good, as we know Stevens just doesn't give minutes away.
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The media will be eager to give it to Lonzo. Dennis Smith will be given an opportunity to win some votes, too.
I suspect Fultz and Simmons will cancel each other out, especially since Embiid will get most of the spotlight (and touches) while he's healthy, but they seem to have a better chance that JT.
I think a good year for Tatum would be ~20 mpg, 8-9 points per game, a couple rebounds and an assist or two, on acceptable shooting efficiency (45-30-70).
It'd be a poor rookie class if that wins him ROY.
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If Tatum is able to earn 25 minutes a game on this year's team, he will be ROY. This will be the case for three reasons:
1) His per game numbers, which matter to voters, will be respectable.
2) He'll get a bonus for team performance.
3) If he's able to get that many minutes on this Celtics team, it means his play will have been very, very good, as we know Stevens just doesn't give minutes away.
Good points.
Smart didn't get many votes his rookie year, even though Boston made the playoffs with him as their stating PG...but that has a lot to do with the fact that honestly, we didn't have anybody else to play the PG spot, so he got the gig by default and just happened to do pretty well in it.
If Tatum gets big minutes this year it'll be a very different situation. Tatum is a 19 year old combo wing on a team's coming off a #1 seed and ECF appearance, that already has Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart on it's roster. If he ends gets anything more than 15-20 minutes a night then he will have well and truly earned every one of them, and that's mighty impressive and worthy of consideration.
This is compared to guys like Ball and Futlz who will be defacto starting PG's on teams who currently have nobody else who Is even CLOSE to being worthy of a starting spot at that position.
While ROY typically goes to guys who put up big numbers in big minutes, I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that situations like this (A contender getting a top 3 pick) are so incredibly rare. In this case if Tatum puts up stellar Per-minute numbers while helping to lead the Celtics bench - I think that really does need to be given serious consideration.
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I think Tatum is the best tookie, but Donovan Mitchell is my sleeper for ROY
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I think Tatum is the best tookie, but Donovan Mitchell is my sleeper for ROY
I think it's honestly going to be a pretty tough call between Fultz, Ball and Tatum in terms of sheer talent.
Ball is most likely to be a stat sheet stuffer since he has the ability to contribute across a range of categories - I can see him in double figures while also putting up strong assist and rebound numbers. The past players that remind me most of Ball are:
* Ricky Rubio (10.6 PTS / 8.2 AST / 4.2 REB in his rookie year)
* Jason Kidd (11.7 PTS / 7.7 AST / 5.4 REB in his rookie year)
So I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Ball putting up numbers in that range. Something like 12/8/5 I think is quite achievable for him. Though given the team he's playing on (their youth, his probable high usage rate, run and gun style, general roster makeup, etc) I can also imagine his turnover numbers being quite high, and his shooting percentages being quite poor, and his defence being woeful. I can see him shooting something like 38%/33%/67% which (combined with his poor defence) potentially offsets the impressiveness of his other overall numbers.
Fultz is a tough call. With Fultz/Reddick/Saric/Simmons/Embiid the 76ers have a pretty solid young roster, though even with Fultz on board I think Embiid is still their Alpha scorer, and Simmons is still their most talented playmaker, with Fultz being a close second at both categories. Because of this, I think Fultz's numbers will depends a LOT on the health of those two guys. I feel like those three guys all NEED the ball in their hands to be most effective, and if those all stay healthy then I'm not sure how Philly is going to find a way to give all three (Simmons, Embiid and Fultz) the touches they need to perform at their best. There is a risk that Fultz could end up getting the Kevin Love treatment (gets relegated to playing off the ball as a spot up shooter) and if that happens his production could suffer. If either Simmons or Embiid (or both) struggles to stay healthy, then Fultz becomes the defacto #1 option for Philly and will have the ball in his hands a lot - and I expect him to put up pretty big numbers in that scenario. 20 PPG certainly isn't out of the question, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him throw in 5 rebounds and 5 assists to go with it. I think there's enough talent in Philly to get him plenty of good looks, so his percentages will probably be solid - something like 45% / 36% / 70%. With his size (6'4"), weight (195) and length (6'9" WS) he has the same size as Marcus Smart, minus some strength, but seems significantly more athletic...so his defensive potential is high, but I think he'll be restricted by questionable defensive motor and IQ.
Tatum obviously will have to battle for minutes and touches, so he's probably going to struggle to put up numbers competitive with those guys . I can see him putting up Per-36 minutes in the realm of 19 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists and shooting a relatively efficient 46% / 34% / 81% as a rookie. But I think a simple lack of minutes will hold him back in this scenario given the opportunities that Ball and Fultz will get. I think Tatum Is as good a scoring talent as Fultz is, and I think he'll be the best defender of the three due to versatility (he has the mobility and length to guard 2/3/4) and work ethic. I think he might be better defensively then people expect by the end of the season.
I see Fultz getting ROY in the end because he should put up good stats on a Philly team that should make a pretty significant jump in the W column, and probably makes the playoffs in the horribly weak East this year.
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This draft was deep. Someone like john collins or Justin Jackson could easily surprise and be the best performing rookie, especially those rookies stuck on treadmill losing teams.
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Theis could be in the running if he beats out Baynes and Morris to start. It's not completely out of the question seeing how well his recent international play has been. An older more experienced rookie should have a dominant edge over one and done guys from college.
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The favorites:
Ball
Simmons
Next tier:
Tatum
Fultz
Dark horses:
Smith
Fox
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The favorites:
Ball
Simmons
Next tier:
Tatum
Fultz
Dark horses:
Smith
Fox
I dont see Fultz and Tatum in the same tier.
Id expect Smith or Fox to win more than I would Tatum.
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The favorites:
Ball
Simmons
Next tier:
Tatum
Fultz
Dark horses:
Smith
Fox
I dont see Fultz and Tatum in the same tier.
Id expect Smith or Fox to win more than I would Tatum.
Well, you know me, the eternal optimist.
I think Fultz will lose votes to Simmons. Tatum has an uphill battle for playing time, but he'll get plenty of exposure.
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I'd say odds look like:
Simmons/Smith/Ball/Fultz
This is a stats driven award. It'll come down to playing time and usage.
Other guys who could be in the conversation: Bogdanovic, Ntilikina, Marrkenen, Tatum, Jackson
True Dark Horse: John Collins
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The favorites:
Ball
Simmons
Next tier:
Tatum
Fultz
Dark horses:
Smith
Fox
I dont see Fultz and Tatum in the same tier.
Id expect Smith or Fox to win more than I would Tatum.
I think Fultz and Tatum are absolutely in the same Tier. They are both similar aged players who comparable scoring capabilities (both elite), comparable athletic ability (both good athletes but not explosive), comparable rebounding ability (relative to their position), comparable defensive ability (both are limited defensively now, but have high defensive upside) and both have comparable size for their position (very good, but not elite).
The only key distinguishing factors I see is that Fultz is the more skilled playmaker, while Tatum is a better pure shooting (FT% as evidence) and seems to have a better mentality.
I'd say that they are extremely close as prospects to be honest.
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Theis could be in the running if he beats out Baynes and Morris to start. It's not completely out of the question seeing how well his recent international play has been. An older more experienced rookie should have a dominant edge over one and done guys from college.
I don't get the fascination with Theis to be honest.
Even against international competition, he looks pretty unspectacular...and I've seen countless players who DOMINATED at an international level come over to the NBA and fail miserably. I expect literally nothing from Theis - if we can get >15 genuinely effective/productive minutes from him per game (without him getting fouled out on a nightly basis), then I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Pretty much expecting him to be a poor-man's version of a young Amir Johnson...as a best case.
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The favorites:
Ball
Simmons
Next tier:
Tatum
Fultz
Dark horses:
Smith
Fox
I dont see Fultz and Tatum in the same tier.
Id expect Smith or Fox to win more than I would Tatum.
I think Fultz and Tatum are absolutely in the same Tier. They are both similar aged players who comparable scoring capabilities (both elite), comparable athletic ability (both good athletes but not explosive), comparable rebounding ability (relative to their position), comparable defensive ability (both are limited defensively now, but have high defensive upside) and both have comparable size for their position (very good, but not elite).
The only key distinguishing factors I see is that Fultz is the more skilled playmaker, while Tatum is a better pure shooting (FT% as evidence) and seems to have a better mentality.
I'd say that they are extremely close as prospects to be honest.
Nobody is comparing them as prospects in this thread. Their likelihood of winning Rookie of the Year is being compared.
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That point gaurd the clips signed: Milos Teodisic could make a run.
shades of Juan Carlos Navarro
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That point gaurd the clips signed: Milos Teodisic could make a run.
shades of Juan Carlos Navarro
Like this take.
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The favorites:
Ball
Simmons
Next tier:
Tatum
Fultz
Dark horses:
Smith
Fox
I dont see Fultz and Tatum in the same tier.
Id expect Smith or Fox to win more than I would Tatum.
I think Fultz and Tatum are absolutely in the same Tier. They are both similar aged players who comparable scoring capabilities (both elite), comparable athletic ability (both good athletes but not explosive), comparable rebounding ability (relative to their position), comparable defensive ability (both are limited defensively now, but have high defensive upside) and both have comparable size for their position (very good, but not elite).
The only key distinguishing factors I see is that Fultz is the more skilled playmaker, while Tatum is a better pure shooting (FT% as evidence) and seems to have a better mentality.
I'd say that they are extremely close as prospects to be honest.
Nobody is comparing them as prospects in this thread. Their likelihood of winning Rookie of the Year is being compared.
Ahh - I read this post out of context then. My apologies :)
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DSJ, Fox, Fultz and maybe Simmons are my likely top guys.
Tatum will likely get 10-15mpg less than these guys from the get go, so I can't see him getting it, and I think Ball will struggle immensely.
I think Markkanen and Isaac could be dark horses. If Markkanen can build upon his form that's displayed playing for Finland he could be something, and if Isaac's defensive attributes translate he could be something.
Teodosic is another guy, but hard to tell how many minutes he'll get with Beverly and Rivers.
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Theis could be in the running if he beats out Baynes and Morris to start. It's not completely out of the question seeing how well his recent international play has been. An older more experienced rookie should have a dominant edge over one and done guys from college.
I don't get the fascination with Theis to be honest.
Even against international competition, he looks pretty unspectacular...and I've seen countless players who DOMINATED at an international level come over to the NBA and fail miserably. I expect literally nothing from Theis - if we can get >15 genuinely effective/productive minutes from him per game (without him getting fouled out on a nightly basis), then I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Pretty much expecting him to be a poor-man's version of a young Amir Johnson...as a best case.
It's not that I expect anything just me just thinking outside the box. All the rookies are question marks. But I am just looking at the trend. That he could be in the running due to being older and experienced. He played really well this last fiba tourney. Usually the older rookies fair well year one. If he played along Irving, Smart, Hayward and Horford an average of 11/7/2 wouldn't be hard to get. Brogdon won averaging 10/3/4.
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Theis could be in the running if he beats out Baynes and Morris to start. It's not completely out of the question seeing how well his recent international play has been. An older more experienced rookie should have a dominant edge over one and done guys from college.
I don't get the fascination with Theis to be honest.
Even against international competition, he looks pretty unspectacular...and I've seen countless players who DOMINATED at an international level come over to the NBA and fail miserably. I expect literally nothing from Theis - if we can get >15 genuinely effective/productive minutes from him per game (without him getting fouled out on a nightly basis), then I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Pretty much expecting him to be a poor-man's version of a young Amir Johnson...as a best case.
It's not that I expect anything just me just thinking outside the box. All the rookies are question marks. But I am just looking at the trend. That he could be in the running due to being older and experienced. He played really well this last fiba tourney. Usually the older rookies fair well year one. If he played along Irving, Smart, Hayward and Horford an average of 11/7/2 wouldn't be hard to get. Brogdon won averaging 10/3/4.
Last year's class was very weak. I wouldn't be surprised if 10 rookies exceed Brogdon's numbers.
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Theis could be in the running if he beats out Baynes and Morris to start. It's not completely out of the question seeing how well his recent international play has been. An older more experienced rookie should have a dominant edge over one and done guys from college.
I don't get the fascination with Theis to be honest.
Even against international competition, he looks pretty unspectacular...and I've seen countless players who DOMINATED at an international level come over to the NBA and fail miserably. I expect literally nothing from Theis - if we can get >15 genuinely effective/productive minutes from him per game (without him getting fouled out on a nightly basis), then I'll be pleasantly surprised.
Pretty much expecting him to be a poor-man's version of a young Amir Johnson...as a best case.
It's not that I expect anything just me just thinking outside the box. All the rookies are question marks. But I am just looking at the trend. That he could be in the running due to being older and experienced. He played really well this last fiba tourney. Usually the older rookies fair well year one. If he played along Irving, Smart, Hayward and Horford an average of 11/7/2 wouldn't be hard to get. Brogdon won averaging 10/3/4.
Last year's class was very weak. I wouldn't be surprised if 10 rookies exceed Brogdon's numbers.
To add more context - Kyrie (the guy on our team, 6 year vet, 3 finals, Rio OG, Spain WC) is less than 9 months (263 days) older than Brogdon. LOL. Basically, it means that they are age/class comparable. I think our ROY is better.
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Just to get a prediction on the record, I think Ben Simmons will win it. He should get plenty of minutes and i think he is really good.
Fultz and Tatum will be in the same boat in that they will not get the regular minutes, or if they do, they won't be ready for them. And for Ball, I he just has too many holes in his game right now. He probably will be good someday but not this season.
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Did a forum search before starting a new thread and found this. It's a conversation worth revisiting even though it's still very early in the season.
With Hayward going down, Tatum is bound to get much more minutes than initially expected. The only other player who might significantly cut into Tatum's minutes is Morris when he returns from injury. But so far through 3 games Tatum has averaged 35.6 minutes and a very respectable 12.3 PPG and 9 RPG.
Ben Simmons or Lonzo Ball might finish with better overall statlines, which mostly determines ROTY, but they're playing on a losing teams with more opportunity for touches per game and shots per game and I hope that this comes into consideration. I don't think Fultz will win it.
For the record, I don't find ROTY to be an important award by any means, but I'd still like to see Tatum win it. I love what I'm seeing from him so far.
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Did a forum search before starting a new thread and found this. It's a conversation worth revisiting even though it's still very early in the season.
With Hayward going down, Tatum is bound to get much more minutes than initially expected. The only other player who might significantly cut into Tatum's minutes is Morris when he returns from injury. But so far through 3 games Tatum has averaged 35.6 minutes and a very respectable 12.3 PPG and 9 RPG.
Ben Simmons or Lonzo Ball might finish with better overall statlines, which mostly determines ROTY, but they're playing on a losing teams with more opportunity for touches per game and shots per game and I hope that this comes into consideration. I don't think Fultz will win it.
For the record, I don't find ROTY to be an important award by any means, but I'd still like to see Tatum win it. I love what I'm seeing from him so far.
Simmons maybe, but not Ball. He won't (can't) score enough to get him there. It'll be Simmons or Tatum, and Tatum probably has the edge right now due to the expanded role on a much better team.
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I'm going out on a whim and saying Malik Monk.
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I'm going out on a whim and saying Malik Monk.
For setting a PER Record?
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Lonzo courting a triple doube. 29-10-9 with just over a minute to go vs PHX.
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Lonzo ends with 29 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists in 37 minutes and a W. Shot 44-44-50 (1/2).
Easily best performance of the season for any rookie. Good bounce back after Lonzo got bullied by Pat Bev. It'll be hard topping that outing.
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Wish the Celtics had a talent like Ball...even performed better than Kyrie Irving the last few games.
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I'm going out on a whim and saying Malik Monk.
That is a very thin limb thus far as Monk had a -7 PER in his first game and a PER of 2 tonight, giving him an average PER of -2.5 thus far. He is shooting 18.75% from the field to this point.
Smitty77
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The injury to Hayward may improve Tatum's chances. He will get more game time and he has adapted to the pace of the NBA quickly. Tough season with Simmons in the mix but stats against Phx don't impress as much as stats V Cavs etc. I expect Tatum will put up a 20+ points game before too long.
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I hate the fact that Simmons is considered a rookie. He's not. Its a technicality. He's a 2nd year player. He's had a year in NBA locker rooms already.
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Lonzo ends with 29 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists in 37 minutes and a W. Shot 44-44-50 (1/2).
Easily best performance of the season for any rookie. Good bounce back after Lonzo got bullied by Pat Bev. It'll be hard topping that outing.
29 points on 27 shots isn't that impressive. It was also against the Suns who are staking their claim as worst team in the league. They lost by 48 to the Blazers who were without McCollum. Ball should look his best against young, fast paced, no defense teams like the Suns. It is against the rest of the teams where he'll struggle.
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Wish the Celtics had a talent like Ball...even performed better than Kyrie Irving the last few games.
Like the three points he had Thu 10/19.
http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/4066421/lonzo-ball
http://www.espn.com/nba/player/_/id/6442/kyrie-irving
Kyrie's average is 20. Ball's is 16.
Go home, troll, your not a good one perhaps stop before your exposed even more.....
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This play at 0:57 got me pretty excited
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjcpebBG3sw
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Lonzo ends with 29 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists in 37 minutes and a W. Shot 44-44-50 (1/2).
Easily best performance of the season for any rookie. Good bounce back after Lonzo got bullied by Pat Bev. It'll be hard topping that outing.
29 points on 27 shots isn't that impressive. It was also against the Suns who are staking their claim as worst team in the league. They lost by 48 to the Blazers who were without McCollum. Ball should look his best against young, fast paced, no defense teams like the Suns. It is against the rest of the teams where he'll struggle.
He shot over 44% on those 27 shots, by the way. I'm just glad Fultz, Fox, Tatum, etc. also get to play against the Suns. I'm going to be seeing who doesn't have amazing games against this Edited. Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.ty defense, so I can call them a bust.
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Lonzo ends with 29 points, 11 rebounds, 9 assists in 37 minutes and a W. Shot 44-44-50 (1/2).
Easily best performance of the season for any rookie. Good bounce back after Lonzo got bullied by Pat Bev. It'll be hard topping that outing.
29 points on 27 shots isn't that impressive. It was also against the Suns who are staking their claim as worst team in the league. They lost by 48 to the Blazers who were without McCollum. Ball should look his best against young, fast paced, no defense teams like the Suns. It is against the rest of the teams where he'll struggle.
He shot over 44% on those 27 shots, by the way. I'm just glad Fultz, Fox, Tatum, etc. also get to play against the Suns. I'm going to be seeing who doesn't have amazing games against this ****ty defense, so I can call them a bust.
Meanwhile, Josh Jackson ain't looking so hot on the Suns so far.
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Lets all not kid ourselves.
Barring injury the award will go to Ball. He is the new face of the Fakers and the media and espn will show highlights of him even if he has a soso statline of the night.
Tatum will probably be 4th in the running even if he has the minutes and exposure...there's just no stopping the Ballchoochoo train.
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Lets all not kid ourselves.
Barring injury the award will go to Ball. He is the new face of the Fakers and the media and espn will show highlights of him even if he has a soso statline of the night.
Tatum will probably be 4th in the running even if he has the minutes and exposure...there's just no stopping the Ballchoochoo train.
I agree. His to lose.
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If Tatum can put up decent numbers this year in place of Hayward being injured and have a solid impact on our team he can get ROY.
I don't even think that his numbers would have to be better than Balls - but the TEAM would have to be better than LA.
If this team can somehow muster 45-48 wins, get a playoff berth AND Tatum puts up 14-6-2-1-1 and THEN the Lakers get only 25-30 wins I don't see how Ball can get ROY.
So far, Jayson has put up 12.3, 9 rebs, nearly 2 assist and 1 block, through 3 games. Not bad at all.
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Tatum is going to slay with or without ROY! ROY doesn't always mean you're the best.
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does Tatum even miss free throws? His stroke is so smooth.
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ROY or not... let's play hard, play smart, and have some funn!!
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Markannen looks legit so far. I think its going to be a tight ROY race this year, a great collection of talent at the top of this rookie class.
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This draft could turn out to be the best ever. There are two legitimate dark horses that I haven't seen mentioned, Kuzma and John Collins (Hawks)