Unpopular Opinion: We are better than last year

[JumpingJudkins]

Things I question
-Ainge drafting Langford. Not sure why he drafted him if he's not able to participate in summer league due to injury. He could've simply drafted another big (Goga) or drafted a healthier shooting guard (Alexander Walker, Kevin Porter, etc.)

-Vincent Poirer: I wouldn't mind Ainge getting another experienced NBA center as a back-up. Not sure what his fascination is with these un-drafted players from the Euro league.

Isn't this a touch short-sighted? I'm not a fan of the Langford pick either (wanted Goga or Alexander-Walker), but if Ainge thinks Langford ultimately has the most potential, being able to help win a Summer League title is really far down the list of requirements.

[MichiganAdam]

I think we CAN be better, if the rookies have the talent we hope and the chemistry problems of last year allow the talent of the J's and GH to take a step up and overcome the net talent loss in the TR, AH, MM, KI vs Kanter, KW transactions.  Last years log jam was certainly not a lack of talent, but rather a lack of cohesion/chemistry/fit.  We can be better and should be better with fit and GH improving health/conditioning/confidence.

[obnoxiousmime]

FWIW, according to this compilation the current over/under for the Celtics is 48.5, with 1 place of the 4 offering 47.5. Since they won 49 last year, that's basically the same or only a tad worse in terms of W-L record.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-win-totals-betting-odds-2019-2020


My prediction: Tacko Fall goes for 12 pts, 7 rebounds, and 5 blocks in a summer league game and the crazy Boston fan action on the over pushes that number to 49.5 

[playdream]

Not if Brown start to complain about his role and forcing the issue, i(and Danny) will keep an eye on him for that.

[gpap]

Things I question
-Ainge drafting Langford. Not sure why he drafted him if he's not able to participate in summer league due to injury. He could've simply drafted another big (Goga) or drafted a healthier shooting guard (Alexander Walker, Kevin Porter, etc.)

-Vincent Poirer: I wouldn't mind Ainge getting another experienced NBA center as a back-up. Not sure what his fascination is with these un-drafted players from the Euro league.

Isn't this a touch short-sighted? I'm not a fan of the Langford pick either (wanted Goga or Alexander-Walker), but if Ainge thinks Langford ultimately has the most potential, being able to help win a Summer League title is really far down the list of requirements.

I'm not concerned about a Summer League title (lol)

What I'm saying is if he's too injured to play in the summer league, wouldn't that hinder his transition from college into the pros?

[fairweatherfan]

Chemistry should be improved just by a couple of malcontents leaving.  But, I worry about the loss of size, toughness and veteran voices. These were already issues, and they got worse.

I'm with you on two of those but Kemba, Kanter, G Williams, Edwards all seem pretty tough to me. Poirier sure LOOKS tough but he's a big TBD til we see how he reacts to NBA contact. I think we sought out toughness, especially the ability to draw FTs. Contact seekers.

This will be a grittier, hungrier team than last season. How that pans out is mostly gonna come down to how the Jays step up, how much Hayward gets back, and whether we can cobble together a functional big man rotation.

[tstorey_97]

They will be a better "team" than last year.

They will play as a team, play for each other.

Walker will not be "the" leader, but, he will certainly be one of the leaders and he is committed to the team...imagine that? A player who wants to play here and be here and win and has a contract and everything...wow. 

Tatum and Brown will be better. To me, it is clear that their arcs are about right. Brown was very good in the playoffs. Watch his Bucks series. He wasn't the MVP, but he would've gotten votes...more votes than a lot of his team mates.

I simply have no idea about Hayward. I'm a fan. I am hopeful. His playoff run was pretty bad. Watch the games, if he watches them and doesn't turn it around?

Smart will be one of the leaders. We need him to play all of the playoff games this time.

I don't know about Robert Williams. Maybe, he will break out, maybe not this year.

I think that Poirier and Kanter will be fine and the coach will use them correctly....he will have to, neither are outside threats. They are both experienced veteran players who "play big" and the Celtics certainly need that.

Theis, Semi and GrantW will sort it out. They each have their strengths and weaknesses, thus, Stevens will work on matchups. I like Grant Williams, he has a very polished game at both ends and he is small. Heck, watch his games at Tennessee, he was small compared to college forwards.

I am quite hopeful on Edwards as he is the only Celtic off the bench who can light it up. I watched all of Purdue's tourney games last year and, at college level, Edwards wasn't just a volume shooter. I feel there is a difference, he made big shots in big games...he made a goodly number of them and he wasn't a jerk about it, he just made them. All shooters have some streakiness...Edwards wasn't "that" streaky though. He runs hard and gets after it on defense....which he will have to do here to get minutes.

I know little about Langford, In college he was "good", in high school he was top 5 in the nation, but, had the broken finger and I just don't know. He will not have regular minutes available to him this year without injuries.

Walker - Smart - Brown
Tatum - Hayward -( Semi)
Kanter - (Theis) - (Poirier)

The young guys are going to be looking for minutes from the above.
If Edwards gets two turns a game with the second team? I don't see any "real" minutes for anyone else. Stevens just won't give them out.

I think the Celtic's starting 6 above will win a ton of games. I think they will throw the ball all over the court. They will hit a boatload of threes. They will pull opposing defenses out with their deep threat and open up the inside. They will hustle and play correctly on defense, they will be confident and this confidence will be fed by winning a lot of games.

The regular season should be aok for these guys. They will not have slumps like last year.

The playoffs remain to be seen and trader Danny knows it.

[goz421]

What I can't understand is why everyone keeps saying Irving is more talented than Kemba. Look at the stats, they are virtually identical. Second, Kemba is an every game player. Irving takes every other day off to load manage, and pad his stats.

There is a big difference there. Also, Al last year took many days off. His body is starting to betray him. It was time to move on.

Like Paul Piece said. The Celtics will be fine. I predict high around where they were last year. Maybe breaking 50 wins. And, al lot more fun to watch.

[SHAQATTACK]

We got MR Fall

we good 

[footey]

We were a 49 win team that got blown out in the 2nd round of the playoffs last season.

Are we better than that now?  I think there are good arguments pro and con. I think this season the expectation is more aligned with the reality. There was a big disconnect last year. Including by me.

I thought going into last season, the East would be a battle between Boston and Toronto. I underestimated the Bucks, and overestimated us.  But at least I got Toronto right.

[PhoSita]

I think next year's Celts will be a lot like the Blazers.

Potent pick and roll offense with potential to shoot the lights out some nights.  Offensive rebounding could raise the floor on the offense (big issue the last couple of years).

Very matchup dependent due to situational big man play.  Could win a playoff series and be competitive in the second round, or could be out in Round 1 if they fall to the 5th or 6th seed and get matched up with team that can play Kanter off the floor and make life difficult for Kemba.


This version of the Celts becoming anything more than a nice 48-50 win team that is competitive into the second round of the playoffs is dependent on Jayson Tatum becoming a top 15-20 player, i.e. efficient 20-25 ppg scorer with above average defense.



Short version -- Ceiling is lower, floor is higher, overall product should be much more enjoyable.

[wdleehi]

PG is a push

SG/SF I think should be better with Hayward being healthier while Brown and Tatum improves.


PF is downgraded.  Morris for most the season could hit the open three and play good defense.   (I know about his iso-midgame issues)


C is a big downgrade.   The team cannot simply just replace Horford.  He opened up so much on offense for others.   He was the backbone of the defense.   


Chemistry should improve, but we will not know until they get on the court.


I would expect the team to have a similar or better record, but I do not think the way they are constructed can beat the top teams in the east in a 7 game series.   (something I think last years team had a chance)

[Muzzy66]

What I can't understand is why everyone keeps saying Irving is more talented than Kemba. Look at the stats, they are virtually identical. Second, Kemba is an every game player. Irving takes every other day off to load manage, and pad his stats.

There is a big difference there. Also, Al last year took many days off. His body is starting to betray him. It was time to move on.

Like Paul Piece said. The Celtics will be fine. I predict high around where they were last year. Maybe breaking 50 wins. And, al lot more fun to watch.

I agree with you about Al.

Losing Horford definitely hurts us this year - but I agree 110% with Danny's decision to not offer him the type of ludicrous contract Philly gave him.  This team is much better with Horford then it is without him, nobody can deny that.  But if I were given the choice of our current situation, or signing Horford to the "that" contract he eventually got...I'd definitely choose our current situation.   

Horford has aged well so far, but the signs of slow decline ARE there - and I honestly believe he only has one year (maybe two at most) of production at or near his current level before he drops off like a brick off the Eiffel Tower. 

If we gave him that contract we'd be sacrificing our cap flexibility for the next four years, in return for one or two years of strong competitiveness, and the worst thing is that when Horford likely starts to really show his age (in the 3rd and 4th year), that'll be when Brown and Tatum are entering their 6th and 5th years (respectively) and starting to reach their prime.  That is the WORST time to have $25M or so in cap space tied up in a 36 year old big who's giving you fringe starter production on limited minutes.

Not if Brown start to complain about his role and forcing the issue, i (and Danny) will keep an eye on him for that.

What makes you think he will? 

Now that Kyrie and Horford are gone, I can't help but feel that Danny Ainge will be looking at Brown and Tatum as the #1 priority of this team moving forward.  I feel that he will be force feeding starting roles to both of those guys, even if it means starting one (or both) of them out of their natural positions.

I can see him starting Brown at SG and either Tatum or Hayward as a small ball PF.  One way or the other, I expect that Brown and Tatum will both be starting. 

I kinda hope that ISN'T the case, because I really feel that Boston has a better team with Kemba and Smart starting int he backcourt and Brown coming off the bench - but after all the drama over young guys and roles last season, I feel Danny won't take that risk.  Smart is always that guy who is willing to play whatever role the teamneeds him to, and so it seems like team chemistry would be easier to manage if Brown and Tatum are both starting, and Smart is coming off the bench.

[Muzzy66]

PG is a push

SG/SF I think should be better with Hayward being healthier while Brown and Tatum improves.


PF is downgraded.  Morris for most the season could hit the open three and play good defense.   (I know about his iso-midgame issues)


C is a big downgrade.   The team cannot simply just replace Horford.  He opened up so much on offense for others.   He was the backbone of the defense.   


Chemistry should improve, but we will not know until they get on the court.


I would expect the team to have a similar or better record, but I do not think the way they are constructed can beat the top teams in the east in a 7 game series.   (something I think last years team had a chance)

I tend to agree with you.

But then again last year's team proved they couldn't beat the top teams in a 7 game series either, so I guess that's no loss lol

I actually don't mind the PF spot too much - I think Tatum can play small ball PF in today's NBA, and he played it a lot in his rookie year and seemed to do so pretty effectively. 

My biggest concerns are the center spot and the bench. 

Boston started out last season with Rozier, Smart, Morris and Baynes on our second unit - each one of those guys was good enough to start on a lot of NBA teams.   The strength of that second unit was always one of the reason's why people had such high hopes for the team. 

This year the only proven entity on our bench is Smart / Jaylen / Hayward - whichever of the three doesn't start.  The rest of the bench is filled with 3rd tier guys and newbies who have never played an NBA game. It reminds me a lot of some of those terrible second units that we had during the Big 3 era - where the instant Pierce/KG/Ray went out the team would get their butts kicked.

I think our starting 5 probably has enough talent to compete with just about any team out there, even with Kanter as our starting center - but that second unit is a worry unless one or more of the following prove true:

* Theiss or Ojeleye make significant developments (not out of the question)
* One or two of the rookies surprise and prove to be real steals (certainly possible)
* Frenchy manages to replace Baynes effectively by finding a decent mid-range jumper we didn't know he had, and by providing size, toughness and physicality in the paint

Some concerns:
a) If none of those come true then this team will struggle
b) If Hayward doesn't return to at least around 90% of the All-Star he once was, this team will struggle
c) If neither Tatum nor Brown takes a SIGNIFICANT stride in development, this team will struggle
d) If the combination of Smart/Brown/Hayward/Tatum (whichever three start) can't play good enough defense to overcome the defensive liabilities of Kemba and Kanter, this team will struggle

Lot of uncertainties here, but I'm hopeful.

[obnoxiousmime]

What I can't understand is why everyone keeps saying Irving is more talented than Kemba. Look at the stats, they are virtually identical. Second, Kemba is an every game player. Irving takes every other day off to load manage, and pad his stats.

There is a big difference there. Also, Al last year took many days off. His body is starting to betray him. It was time to move on.

Like Paul Piece said. The Celtics will be fine. I predict high around where they were last year. Maybe breaking 50 wins. And, al lot more fun to watch.

I agree with you about Al.

Losing Horford definitely hurts us this year - but I agree 110% with Danny's decision to not offer him the type of ludicrous contract Philly gave him.  This team is much better with Horford then it is without him, nobody can deny that.  But if I were given the choice of our current situation, or signing Horford to the "that" contract he eventually got...I'd definitely choose our current situation.   

Horford has aged well so far, but the signs of slow decline ARE there - and I honestly believe he only has one year (maybe two at most) of production at or near his current level before he drops off like a brick off the Eiffel Tower. 

If we gave him that contract we'd be sacrificing our cap flexibility for the next four years, in return for one or two years of strong competitiveness, and the worst thing is that when Horford likely starts to really show his age (in the 3rd and 4th year), that'll be when Brown and Tatum are entering their 6th and 5th years (respectively) and starting to reach their prime.  That is the WORST time to have $25M or so in cap space tied up in a 36 year old big who's giving you fringe starter production on limited minutes.

Not if Brown start to complain about his role and forcing the issue, i (and Danny) will keep an eye on him for that.

What makes you think he will? 

Now that Kyrie and Horford are gone, I can't help but feel that Danny Ainge will be looking at Brown and Tatum as the #1 priority of this team moving forward.  I feel that he will be force feeding starting roles to both of those guys, even if it means starting one (or both) of them out of their natural positions.

I can see him starting Brown at SG and either Tatum or Hayward as a small ball PF.  One way or the other, I expect that Brown and Tatum will both be starting. 

I kinda hope that ISN'T the case, because I really feel that Boston has a better team with Kemba and Smart starting int he backcourt and Brown coming off the bench - but after all the drama over young guys and roles last season, I feel Danny won't take that risk.  Smart is always that guy who is willing to play whatever role the teamneeds him to, and so it seems like team chemistry would be easier to manage if Brown and Tatum are both starting, and Smart is coming off the bench.

You're right, but you didn't say WHY overpaying was a bad decision for us and a good decision for Philly. Teams that are going for a title can afford to overpay if they think a piece pushes them over the top. Teams that realize they aren't in the title picture yet can't make irresponsible signings like that.

Thus, whether or not Horford should be considered an overpay is dependent on where your team is in its development. What stings is, his leaving feels like confirmation our team took a step back after 4-5 years of steady forward movement.

We considered ourselves ahead of the Sixers a year ago. Now, they've leapfrogged us.