Perk was going to walk

[celticsclay]

I never hated the deal. It made sense. We needed someone to give pierce/allen rest. Perk was never going to be paid by danny. We had like 40 centers that year

Unfortunately we had 40 injured centers that year.

Honestly, I think if one of them was healthy they would have won in '11. No doubt if the healthy one was Shaq.

The Heat absolutely destroyed the Celtics.  Unless the healthy center was someone like Dwight Howard, Boston was not beating Miami that year. 

And I don't want to hear any garbage about the next season going 7.  Sure, because Chris Bosh didn't play in the first 4 games and barely played in game 5.  he got much closer to normal minutes in games 6 and 7 and the Heat throttled Boston both games. 

The simple truth is the run was over.  The C's were cooked as a real contender the minute James, Wade, and Bosh joined forces.  They had no shot at beating that team.  None at all (especially in a post-KG injury world).  The Jeff Green trade actually probably increased Boston's chances of winning the title that season.  People forget that at the time of the trade Paul Pierce was the only healthy wing on the team as Daniels had just gone down.  Without adding a wing, the team would have gone into a tailspin and Pierce would have been playing so many minutes he would have been toast by the time the playoffs started.

I think you're conflating the 2011 Heat with what they would eventually become. They were very vulnerable and beatable that year. If Shaq was in the form he was in October, the Heat would have had no chance. It would have been a 5 game series the other way.

I'm not conflating anything.  That was a 5 game series (as were all of the Heat series that year until the Mavs in the Finals).  The games generally weren't blow outs, but they weren't 1 possession type games either.  The simple truth is Boston couldn't reasonably guard James or Wade and they didn't have anyone that could take over a game offensively (like Dirk did in the Finals).  The Heat were just too good and Boston (aside from Rondo) was just too old.  If that was the 08 team playing the Heat, then absolutely I think Boston would have been favored to win that series as the big 3 all just had a lot more left in the tank that season.  The following year (2012) the series was closer, but it was because Bosh was out, giving Boston a decided advantage down low.  When Bosh came back and was reasonably healthy the series was over as the Heat were younger, fresher, and quite frankly just better at that point.

The Celtics won game 3, went to OT in game 4 and were within one possession with 1 minute to go in game 5. The difference in 2011 wasn't great. A healthy center makes a huge difference, even if it just means a fresher KG.

Whoa that “they weren’t 1 possession type games” was incredibly wrong. Thanks for doing the research on that. I think sometimes people say stuff like we can’t look it up. Tp #anothercontrariantakegonewrong

Related moranis: we have all been watching your routine here for about a half a decade, and speaking for myself, I have never seen you admit you said something wrong. You said these games were not one possession games and they objectively were (unless this posters info is inaccurate). Is this finally the one you admit you said something wrong on? Or should we anticipate a long post debTing the meaning of a possession with a few stats from the late 80 bucks?

[Moranis]

I never hated the deal. It made sense. We needed someone to give pierce/allen rest. Perk was never going to be paid by danny. We had like 40 centers that year

Unfortunately we had 40 injured centers that year.

Honestly, I think if one of them was healthy they would have won in '11. No doubt if the healthy one was Shaq.

The Heat absolutely destroyed the Celtics.  Unless the healthy center was someone like Dwight Howard, Boston was not beating Miami that year. 

And I don't want to hear any garbage about the next season going 7.  Sure, because Chris Bosh didn't play in the first 4 games and barely played in game 5.  he got much closer to normal minutes in games 6 and 7 and the Heat throttled Boston both games. 

The simple truth is the run was over.  The C's were cooked as a real contender the minute James, Wade, and Bosh joined forces.  They had no shot at beating that team.  None at all (especially in a post-KG injury world).  The Jeff Green trade actually probably increased Boston's chances of winning the title that season.  People forget that at the time of the trade Paul Pierce was the only healthy wing on the team as Daniels had just gone down.  Without adding a wing, the team would have gone into a tailspin and Pierce would have been playing so many minutes he would have been toast by the time the playoffs started.

I think you're conflating the 2011 Heat with what they would eventually become. They were very vulnerable and beatable that year. If Shaq was in the form he was in October, the Heat would have had no chance. It would have been a 5 game series the other way.

I'm not conflating anything.  That was a 5 game series (as were all of the Heat series that year until the Mavs in the Finals).  The games generally weren't blow outs, but they weren't 1 possession type games either.  The simple truth is Boston couldn't reasonably guard James or Wade and they didn't have anyone that could take over a game offensively (like Dirk did in the Finals).  The Heat were just too good and Boston (aside from Rondo) was just too old.  If that was the 08 team playing the Heat, then absolutely I think Boston would have been favored to win that series as the big 3 all just had a lot more left in the tank that season.  The following year (2012) the series was closer, but it was because Bosh was out, giving Boston a decided advantage down low.  When Bosh came back and was reasonably healthy the series was over as the Heat were younger, fresher, and quite frankly just better at that point.

The Celtics won game 3, went to OT in game 4 and were within one possession with 1 minute to go in game 5. The difference in 2011 wasn't great. A healthy center makes a huge difference, even if it just means a fresher KG.

Whoa that “they weren’t 1 possession type games” was incredibly wrong. Thanks for doing the research on that. I think sometimes people say stuff like we can’t look it up. Tp #anothercontrariantakegonewrong

Related moranis: we have all been watching your routine here for about a half a decade, and speaking for myself, I have never seen you admit you said something wrong. You said these games were not one possession games and they objectively were (unless this posters info is inaccurate). Is this finally the one you admit you said something wrong on? Or should we anticipate a long post debTing the meaning of a possession with a few stats from the late 80 bucks?

I had forgotten game 4 went to OT as the Heat won it by 8, but the Heat won their other 3 games by 9, 11, and 10 points.  That isn't a one possession game even if they were at some point in the 4th quarter as both game 2 and game 5 were.  And clearly Boston won game 3 (also not a one possession game - ha). 

I just don't think Perk, Shaq, or some random center would have changed the outcome of that series.  Boston was just too old by then and the Heat in general were just too good, especially Wade and James.  They did what ever they wanted when ever they wanted to in that series. 

[celticsclay]

I never hated the deal. It made sense. We needed someone to give pierce/allen rest. Perk was never going to be paid by danny. We had like 40 centers that year

Unfortunately we had 40 injured centers that year.

Honestly, I think if one of them was healthy they would have won in '11. No doubt if the healthy one was Shaq.

The Heat absolutely destroyed the Celtics.  Unless the healthy center was someone like Dwight Howard, Boston was not beating Miami that year. 

And I don't want to hear any garbage about the next season going 7.  Sure, because Chris Bosh didn't play in the first 4 games and barely played in game 5.  he got much closer to normal minutes in games 6 and 7 and the Heat throttled Boston both games. 

The simple truth is the run was over.  The C's were cooked as a real contender the minute James, Wade, and Bosh joined forces.  They had no shot at beating that team.  None at all (especially in a post-KG injury world).  The Jeff Green trade actually probably increased Boston's chances of winning the title that season.  People forget that at the time of the trade Paul Pierce was the only healthy wing on the team as Daniels had just gone down.  Without adding a wing, the team would have gone into a tailspin and Pierce would have been playing so many minutes he would have been toast by the time the playoffs started.

I think you're conflating the 2011 Heat with what they would eventually become. They were very vulnerable and beatable that year. If Shaq was in the form he was in October, the Heat would have had no chance. It would have been a 5 game series the other way.

I'm not conflating anything.  That was a 5 game series (as were all of the Heat series that year until the Mavs in the Finals).  The games generally weren't blow outs, but they weren't 1 possession type games either.  The simple truth is Boston couldn't reasonably guard James or Wade and they didn't have anyone that could take over a game offensively (like Dirk did in the Finals).  The Heat were just too good and Boston (aside from Rondo) was just too old.  If that was the 08 team playing the Heat, then absolutely I think Boston would have been favored to win that series as the big 3 all just had a lot more left in the tank that season.  The following year (2012) the series was closer, but it was because Bosh was out, giving Boston a decided advantage down low.  When Bosh came back and was reasonably healthy the series was over as the Heat were younger, fresher, and quite frankly just better at that point.

The Celtics won game 3, went to OT in game 4 and were within one possession with 1 minute to go in game 5. The difference in 2011 wasn't great. A healthy center makes a huge difference, even if it just means a fresher KG.

Whoa that “they weren’t 1 possession type games” was incredibly wrong. Thanks for doing the research on that. I think sometimes people say stuff like we can’t look it up. Tp #anothercontrariantakegonewrong

Related moranis: we have all been watching your routine here for about a half a decade, and speaking for myself, I have never seen you admit you said something wrong. You said these games were not one possession games and they objectively were (unless this posters info is inaccurate). Is this finally the one you admit you said something wrong on? Or should we anticipate a long post debTing the meaning of a possession with a few stats from the late 80 bucks?

I had forgotten game 4 went to OT as the Heat won it by 8, but the Heat won their other 3 games by 9, 11, and 10 points.  That isn't a one possession game even if they were at some point in the 4th quarter as both game 2 and game 5 were.  And clearly Boston won game 3 (also not a one possession game - ha). 

I just don't think Perk, Shaq, or some random center would have changed the outcome of that series.  Boston was just too old by then and the Heat in general were just too good, especially Wade and James.  They did what ever they wanted when ever they wanted to in that series.

We were literally down 3 with the ball with 60 seconds left in game 5. If that is not a close game I must not have ever seen one. Obviously we choked and then had to foul, but that is a close game

[Muzzy66]

I'm not surprised - I always argued at the time that Perkins was going to leave anyway, since it was pretty well documented that Boston wouldn't be able to pay him what other teams would potentially offer.

When I made that argument at the time the response from people was generally something like "I don't care if he was going to leave, keeping him to the end of the year could have won Boston an extra championship".

But you have to put yourself in Danny's position. 

He had Shaq and Jermaine O'neal - both were at the end of their careers and were riddled with injures.  Perkins was sidelined with injury, and nobody truly knew when he'd come back or how effective he would have been when he did return.  If Danny kept things as they were he would have been putting all his faith in two broken down vets (Jermaine and Shaq) and an injured big who may or may not return as anything close to what he was.  That's a gigantic risk.  And then on top of that, you also risk losing Perk in free agency and getting nothing in return. 

On the contrary, by pulling the trade he got back an extra young talent who appeared to have significant upside (Jeff Green) and also got back a healthy starting caliber big (Kristic) who gave Boston much needed security at the center spot. Both of those guys were also quite young at the time, so it also made sense for that reason - as Boston were getting pretty old, and it seemed like a couple of sets of young legs might help add some life in to the team.  When you put yourself in his shoes, at that very moment in time, the decision was pretty much a no brainier.

Now as things turned out, the logic of the deal was made all the more clear when both Shaq and Jermain struggled with injuries and missed bunches of games - unfortunately unforeseeable bad luck struck and Kristic also ended up getting injured.  There is no way Danny could have foreseen this, but sometimes bad luck just happens, and there's not much you can do about it.  If Kristic stayed healthy maybe Boston would have won the title that year, and then the Perk trade would have seemed like a great move.

It's easy to criticise Danny when you've seen the future and know how things are going to pan out.  But he doesn't have the luxury of time travel - he has to make the best decision he can at a specific moment in time, armed with the best knowledge he has available. I always felt that he did the right thing.