Concerned that the Celtics seem determined to stay on the treadmill

[ETNCeltics]

It boils down to this: you don’t believe in Jayson Tatum.

If you think he’s the next superstar, then you proceed as Ainge has. Ainge is investing and building around him.

But, if you have no belief in him and the patience of a newborn, then you do what some here have suggested and shove Tatum, Brown, and any available draft picks to the middle of the table to get one year of a franchise player before we’re left destitute and lottery bound.

[TheSundanceKid]

We aren't sellers. The timeline has shifted to be around the Jays. That doesn't mean you sell everything else and it doesn't mean you tank for 3 more years.

It's a good option to remain competitive whilst the Jays develop. Too often teams waste years of their top player by being unable to make the shift from tank to compete. That even happened with LeBron in Cleveland the first time around.

Hayward is still only 26/7. Kemba is older but hardly over the hill. Smart is young too. We're building assets that will either compliment the Jays in winning or be used in a trade for a 3rd major piece. It's absolutely the right way to go about this and we're fortunate to have had such a good backup plan

[Boris Badenov]

What exactly could they have done? Trading for Kawhi would have been a mistake, knowing that he is departing for LA. One title is not enough for me. Even the Big 3 should have won at least one more title. We would have been left with nothing. It's better to consistently be competitive and in a position to take advantage of injuries or meltdowns (see: Toronto 2019). What would you say about Toronto's gamble if Durant remained healthy and GS won?

Where did you get the idea I thought trading for Kawhi was smart? I always thought he wanted to go to LA, now we know just how important it was to him. He left a team that won the title!

My original post is more about where the league is now and how to move forward. Unless you draft incredibly well (like, think GS and OKC with Curry/Green/Thompson and Harden/Durant/Westbrook - not really a realistic goal to have for even teams great at drafting) you are going to be at the mercy of stars choosing to come to your organization.

Kyrie was our lure to get one of those players, because stars are not clamoring to team up with Horford or Hayward or even Kemba. So we've missed out on this cycle, how do we make sure we don't miss on the next one?

One of the issues with missing this superstar cycle is that soon the window in which to add talent while Tatum and Brown are on their rookie deals is running out. The other issue is that the cost of acquiring a superstar in trade has skyrocketed, and we're no longer the only team with a collection of valuable assets. Previously everybody considered the Celtics to have the ability to outbid anybody in a superstar trade. That's no longer the case.

Being a good organization certainly has value, but being a consistent winner is slightly overrated IMO. BKN and LAC were not consistent winners. They drafted or traded well, cleared most of their cap space, and were just attractive enough (in addition to being in major cities) to lure star free agents over. We are not in that position because we have Hayward and Kemba eating huge chunk of our cap, and now Brown is slated to eat up more.

The next superstar who might move is Giannis. Beal or Westbrook do not really fit with our team considering what we already have here. Towns seems OK in Minnie now, but even if he became unhappy I don't think he can be the no 1 option on a contender. At his maturity level, I see him more likely ending up on a team with an established alpha veteran star, similar to what Davis did. Turner or Sabonis might become available, but neither are really elite.

So, how do we create a scenario where Giannis might agree to come here in a potential trade? Let's assume for the purposes of this exercise that he doesn't pull a Davis/Kawhi, i.e. is hell-bent on signing with a team like LAL or NYK when he's unrestricted. I really don't believe we would have either the best team or the best offer. New Orleans could easily say, we'll give you Hayes, Ingram, Ball, our 2020 pick, and a bunch of the Lakers' picks. You get to play with Zion and Holiday. GS could say, come play with Green, Curry, and Thompson, we'll deal D'Angelo Russell and a bunch of future picks (remember, convincing Giannis is the first part of the equation. The return doesn't matter if Giannis won't express a willingness to re-sign). The Hawks could say, come play with Trae Young. We'll deal Collins, our own pick, BKNs pick, and throw in one of Reddish, Huerter, or Hunter.

Maybe Kemba, Hayward, and one remaining of Brown/Tatum could be enough of a lure, but it's no slam dunk. I will say that if the goal is to be attractive enough to lure Giannis, actually dealing for Beal might be a risk you should take. If you can say you get to play with Kemba and Beal at the guard spots, and Hayward and/or whoever is left out of Tatum and Brown, you've got a really attractive win-now location for a player like Giannis, even if he doesn't really like playing the 5. [EDIT: Oops, I didn't subtract what it would take to deal for Giannis. So it would probably be like only one of the three of Hayward, Brown, and Tatum remaining, not 2 out of the 3. One thing is also for certain, we desperately need the Memphis pick to become a big asset]

So this is your big plan. Instead of pursuing AD, who at the least was vague enough that we might have a chance, you want to go for a guy who's shown no indication of being remotely available.

(Side note:actively pursuing every single good player who's been available, which is what Ainge has done, and in fact landing several of those guys, is the opposite of "determined" to stay on the treadmill. Take a look at the other 20 teams who've been mediocre for the last decade, but haven't even been minor possibilities for those target players, if you want a good comparison.)

But anyway, back to this plan. You just say we have Beal, whose asking price is probably high, as a lure, without saying how we'd get him? How does that work exactly? And your final statement is an "OOPS" because you forgot you'd have to include one or two of our good players in a deal for Giannis? With the final linchpin being a desperate hope for the Memphis pick to become a big asset?

Forgive me for not demanding we fire Ainge and replace him with you right now.

[jambr380]

You are starting off the thread in a contentious way by using the word, 'treadmill'. You might be evoking better responses if that were softened a bit.

I don't disagree with some of your points, but there weren't a lot of options after Kyrie bailed and AD declared to the world that he would never re-sign here. Looking back, you obviously trade Kyrie and Horford (and Rozier) for the biggest packages possible. The shift to Kemba and Kanter was pretty incredible in my opinion - it could have been much worse.

The future really does hinge on Tatum/Brown...or whatever we acquire in a trade for those two (not my preference, but you never know). I also wouldn't undersell our veterans in Kemba, Hayward, Kanter, and Smart. We have an opportunity to be very good this year - especially if a couple of our non-Jays also pan out and we acquire a couple of vet min buy-outs or make some surprise trades. I would not consider us a treadmill team.

[BitterJim]

Ainge hasn't doomed us to the treadmill. He's put the team into a position where Tatum or Brown making a leap makes us contenders, but we can also change directions in a couple of years if neither does

[NKY fan]

What exactly could they have done? Trading for Kawhi would have been a mistake, knowing that he is departing for LA. One title is not enough for me. Even the Big 3 should have won at least one more title. We would have been left with nothing. It's better to consistently be competitive and in a position to take advantage of injuries or meltdowns (see: Toronto 2019). What would you say about Toronto's gamble if Durant remained healthy and GS won?

One title is infinitely more than the titles we have won in the last 13 years when Danny seemingly has done so many right moves

[Sketch5]

Ainge hasn't doomed us to the treadmill. He's put the team into a position where Tatum or Brown making a leap makes us contenders, but we can also change directions in a couple of years if neither does

Yeah, if Hayward gets to 80-90% of Utah HAyward, and Tatum and Brown make a jump looking more like two years ago playoff versions(but better), we're in a good spot. Brown actually out of the 3 was the best players against the Bucks. I think he was the only one that didn't let the Irving stuff drag his game down.

Kanter had a really nice post season. Showed some defensive abilities. Maybe with the right coaching he'll be competent. But maybe we can make a move for more of a defensive center by mid season or next summer.

DA did a solid job so far with what just happened, I wouldn't be surprised if an other deal is in the works. Hasnt' been even a week of FA and people are already saying DA hasn't done anything. 

[obnoxiousmime]

I trust Ainge more than some random poster on a forum. These guys know more than we know, and it doesn't surprise me a bit that what we see isn't what they see as well. They are certainly operating under different information than us.

If you told me before that the Celtics would lose both Horford and Kyrie, I would certainly not say that we could get Kanter and Kemba at least.

Um, exactly what do you think internet forums are for? Why do you read anybody's opinion at all if it ultimately doesn't matter? We're all on this board because we like to read and offer opinions, aren't we? Or are we here to just root, root, root for the home team and never second-guess anything?

Also, you could say the Celtics losing Horford and Kyrie for nothing and steadfastly operating under an AD targeting plan when he wanted nothing to do with us show they aren't necessarily the best predictors either, even with all the "inside info."

Lol the mere fact that they didn't trade for AD means that they already knew Kyrie wasn't staying. Just because nobody told you doesnt mean that they didnt know.

Sure, they cant 100% predict whats gonna happen, but they can make the better informed choice than our random hypothesis and speculations.

The Lakers just lost on Kawhi. Clearly they didnt know the outcome. So should they not try instead?

When opportunity presents itself, you go for it. If you fail, you must have plan b, plan c or plan d. And Kemba Walker while still maintaining assets and flexibility is a dang good one.

Some view that an asset like kyrie walkig for nothing is a mess up on our managements part. I dont. We traded an injured IT for him, it was the best we couldve done with the misfortune of injuries.

It's fine to disagree, but I'm not sure what "I trust Danny Ainge" even means. As if nobody is allowed to critique this or that move from the sports organization they follow. I actually like Ainge, but it doesn't mean I don't wonder from time to time if there were/are better courses to take.

My larger point is not that they should stop "trying," but to be cognizant of the fact that they are stuck in the middle right now. They no longer have the best asset base in which to trade for a star, and if they switch gears and go young with Tatum and Brown it's not evident that that is the strongest young base in the league right now. The team could find that a reset is forced upon them and not something they proactively initiate ahead of time.

In the near future, it is conceivable Hayward could walk next offseason (after Horford it's something you have to consider). Are they going to risk that or can they make another move by that time?

For the record, I'm fine with signing Kemba because it's getting an asset. However, I don't necessarily think it's likely he will be part of our next title contending team. If things go nowhere in say a year or two, they can deal Kemba to a contender for younger assets, though as we learned with Hayward and Rondo the chance of a devastating injury is always there (yes, I am aware we were still able to move Rondo for a first/Crowder, but before the injury he was a legit star and we could have gotten much more).

More teams are run intelligently now, unlike the old days of capping out your roster and destroying flexibility. The Nets' move to Brooklyn and the Clippers switching owners created two more spots in major markets becoming destinations. Now even the Knicks are trying to tank properly and only sign guys to low years to maintain space for a star FA (no more horrible trades for Francis or Stoudemire). Finally, the age of player movement means amassing talent may not mean as much as being able to accommodate stars and the players they wish to team up with. We're clearly forgoing the "draft a franchise star" method at this point. Can we attract a top 6-7 player? I'm not so sure.

[NKY fan]

I kinda of agree with all the points “obnoxiosmeme” is making. I think Danny failed to deliver the title. He tried and he can still deliver a few years from now but it looks like what he did was not enough.
I think if he got a little luckier and maybe traded for a useful player the previous season when we made the “improbable” run to the WCF could have changed things but no one would have known.

[Sketch5]

I think some thing that has to be looked at now is who people were mad at DA for not going after and who ended up where.

AD wanted the Lakers, got there, and there is no indication that he would have stayed in Boston.

Iriving wanted to go to NY, ended up in Brooklyn. Which is close, ownership probably made a big difference, but still ended up in NY.

KD, rumored to want to go to NY, ended up with the NEts, same as above.

PG13, rumored to want to go to LA, resigned to OKC, but demanded a trade to LA after a good season with OKC.

Leonard, rumored to want to go to LA, won a chip in Toronto, still went to LA.

I'm thinking DA isn't going to want to take a huge chance on guys who are rumored to want to play for certain cities from here on out, maybe thats why he didn't pull some of these triggers. Asking price to likely hood of them staying was too risky.

So making a move for a legit PG, and building around the J's might be a better move in the long run than taking on a AD or Leonard.

[NKY fan]

I think what the premise of the OP is that Danny failed to pick a clear direction and that hurt the Celtics in the end. I also agree with that.
One implication is the future contract that jaylen will or should sign.
Danny has no idea how much jaylen is worth right now because in his mind the young kids have to wait for the chance to take the torch from the older guys and that plan clearly didn’t work out

[obnoxiousmime]

It boils down to this: you don’t believe in Jayson Tatum.

If you think he’s the next superstar, then you proceed as Ainge has. Ainge is investing and building around him.

But, if you have no belief in him and the patience of a newborn, then you do what some here have suggested and shove Tatum, Brown, and any available draft picks to the middle of the table to get one year of a franchise player before we’re left destitute and lottery bound.

As I said before, I think his ceiling is a second option on a contender. I don't think he's an elite, MVP type, no, but that doesn't mean he won't be very good. I am operating under the presumption that even with Tatum here, a real first option would eventually need to be added. I don't think this is necessarily an overly negative or pessimistic view of Tatum's potential. I don't even think Ainge disagrees, according to reports, he was quite willing to offer Tatum (but not much else) in a one-year rental for AD. If he thought Tatum could be that level of player, you keep him no matter what.

You are starting off the thread in a contentious way by using the word, 'treadmill'. You might be evoking better responses if that were softened a bit.

I don't disagree with some of your points, but there weren't a lot of options after Kyrie bailed and AD declared to the world that he would never re-sign here. Looking back, you obviously trade Kyrie and Horford (and Rozier) for the biggest packages possible. The shift to Kemba and Kanter was pretty incredible in my opinion - it could have been much worse.

The future really does hinge on Tatum/Brown...or whatever we acquire in a trade for those two (not my preference, but you never know). I also wouldn't undersell our veterans in Kemba, Hayward, Kanter, and Smart. We have an opportunity to be very good this year - especially if a couple of our non-Jays also pan out and we acquire a couple of vet min buy-outs or make some surprise trades. I would not consider us a treadmill team.

You're right, "treadmill" is one of those buzzwords that automatically causes some readers to see red. Maybe I shouldn't have used that term.

So this is your big plan. Instead of pursuing AD, who at the least was vague enough that we might have a chance, you want to go for a guy who's shown no indication of being remotely available.

(Side note:actively pursuing every single good player who's been available, which is what Ainge has done, and in fact landing several of those guys, is the opposite of "determined" to stay on the treadmill. Take a look at the other 20 teams who've been mediocre for the last decade, but haven't even been minor possibilities for those target players, if you want a good comparison.)

But anyway, back to this plan. You just say we have Beal, whose asking price is probably high, as a lure, without saying how we'd get him? How does that work exactly? And your final statement is an "OOPS" because you forgot you'd have to include one or two of our good players in a deal for Giannis? With the final linchpin being a desperate hope for the Memphis pick to become a big asset?

Forgive me for not demanding we fire Ainge and replace him with you right now.

It's not necessarily my well thought out plan, I was just thinking aloud. Now that the free agency shuffle is over and AD is gone, of course I'm going to focus on the next possible superstar who might become available. Isn't that what all GMs do? Make plans based on which stars might be gettable in the future? That's what Ainge did with AD and it was the smart move even if it didn't work out. The reason you do it is because 30 teams are fighting for a handful of elite stars at the very top.

I don't think it's crazy to suggest Beal would be a very strong lure. In terms of "stars want to play with him rankability" I would place him slightly above Kemba and a tier above Hayward. If your goal is to create a base most alluring for a star to want to come, acquiring Beal while still having flexibility left over is an option you have to consider. That's all I was saying.

Anyway, thanks for the replies so far. Even from those that want to rip me a new one.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

I am waiting to see the actual basketball these guys play before making any conclusions of this kind. After all if, the Jays are as legit as they seemed to be in 2018, then plus Kemba and a healthy Haayward we are still a very dangerous team , Then again, 9 out of our 15 guys are still on their rookie deals in the NBA and a few other are not exactly 90th percentile in their posotion, so we could be very badly off. At the end the day I waiting for the actual baskeball to happen before making any hard conclusions.

[mqtcelticsfan]

Ainge hasn't doomed us to the treadmill. He's put the team into a position where Tatum or Brown making a leap makes us contenders, but we can also change directions in a couple of years if neither does

Yeah, we have a lot of flexibility right now. The contracts of Kanter, Theis, Yabu and Langford can get us somewhere if an impact player becomes available, without having to give up both Smart and Brown/Tatum necessarily.

[cman88]

I view a treadmill team as one with no shot at a title and really no future....I dont see the celtics as that.

I think we are looking at the future performance of this team based on last years Hayward being a shell of himself and Tatum/Brown taking a step back.

but, hopefully with a year removed from his injury Gordon gets back to his utah self....and without the other mouths to feed, tatum/Brown go back to being their 2018 playoffs selves.