Author Topic: What was Brad thinking?  (Read 7022 times)

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Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #60 on: July 31, 2022, 05:22:08 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Brown shot better from the field, scored more per game and averaged more rebounds. Brown should also improve next year while Middleton should slightly decline. I’m surprised people engage in the lunacy of skip Moranis

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #61 on: July 31, 2022, 06:00:28 PM »

Offline Moranis

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
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Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #62 on: July 31, 2022, 06:24:26 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.

Ok so jaylen brown averaged more foul shots per game than Middleton? Are you literally just making stuff up at this point?

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #63 on: July 31, 2022, 06:32:28 PM »

Offline gouki88

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
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Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #64 on: July 31, 2022, 06:47:02 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.

Why do we have to put up with this?

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #65 on: July 31, 2022, 09:19:40 PM »

Offline Moranis

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion. 
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Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #66 on: July 31, 2022, 11:18:20 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.

You make these intellectually dishonest posts and then just whine when people point out they inaccurate. Do better

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #67 on: July 31, 2022, 11:39:37 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=brownja02&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=middlkh01&p2yrfrom=2022

The stats you are bringing up are so close as to be statistically irrelevant to the conversation. And I am not sure they are relevant in the first place to being a great #2 with a ball dominant #1. Given the very different games of the #1's, I am not sure you can just claim that one player with certain stats is a better suited #2 to all #1's.

Brown is the better player, now and in the future. He surpassed Middleton this year. Not by much, but he did. And Brown is still getting better. The same can not be said of Middleton.

For that reason, I am not buying Milwaukee as Eastern favorites. It's the Celtics.

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #68 on: July 31, 2022, 11:55:57 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=brownja02&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=middlkh01&p2yrfrom=2022

The stats you are bringing up are so close as to be statistically irrelevant to the conversation. And I am not sure they are relevant in the first place to being a great #2 with a ball dominant #1. Given the very different games of the #1's, I am not sure you can just claim that one player with certain stats is a better suited #2 to all #1's.

Brown is the better player, now and in the future. He surpassed Middleton this year. Not by much, but he did. And Brown is still getting better. The same can not be said of Middleton.

For that reason, I am not buying Milwaukee as Eastern favorites. It's the Celtics.

Thanks Nick. Tp

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #69 on: August 01, 2022, 03:21:20 AM »

Offline gouki88

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.
You initially said "much better", which is categorically untrue about foul generation and three point shooting. He is a marginally better three point shooter.

He is a worse foul generator Moranis. He generates less fouls. Generating the tiniest bit higher a ratio of free throws to field goals is not being better at foul generation, let alone "much better". Which is what you said.
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Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #70 on: August 01, 2022, 05:52:56 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.
https://stathead.com/basketball/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1=brownja02&p1yrfrom=2022&player_id2=middlkh01&p2yrfrom=2022

The stats you are bringing up are so close as to be statistically irrelevant to the conversation. And I am not sure they are relevant in the first place to being a great #2 with a ball dominant #1. Given the very different games of the #1's, I am not sure you can just claim that one player with certain stats is a better suited #2 to all #1's.

Brown is the better player, now and in the future. He surpassed Middleton this year. Not by much, but he did. And Brown is still getting better. The same can not be said of Middleton.

For that reason, I am not buying Milwaukee as Eastern favorites. It's the Celtics.

Man I'm so excited for the Celtics to surpass the Bucks. Just one more excuse to destroy (healthy Middleton), and we're good to go.

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #71 on: August 01, 2022, 06:17:42 AM »

Offline Moranis

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.
You initially said "much better", which is categorically untrue about foul generation and three point shooting. He is a marginally better three point shooter.

He is a worse foul generator Moranis. He generates less fouls. Generating the tiniest bit higher a ratio of free throws to field goals is not being better at foul generation, let alone "much better". Which is what you said.
the difference between Middleton and Brown shooting last year (and in their careers) is very similar to the difference between Brown and Smart last year. Which is a smaller gap than their FTr. 

Middleton shoots less, but does more per shot all while being a much better distributor.   
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Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #72 on: August 01, 2022, 06:31:48 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.
You initially said "much better", which is categorically untrue about foul generation and three point shooting. He is a marginally better three point shooter.

He is a worse foul generator Moranis. He generates less fouls. Generating the tiniest bit higher a ratio of free throws to field goals is not being better at foul generation, let alone "much better". Which is what you said.
the difference between Middleton and Brown shooting last year (and in their careers) is very similar to the difference between Brown and Smart last year. Which is a smaller gap than their FTr. 

Middleton shoots less, but does more per shot all while being a much better distributor.

KM is a better distributor, or at least he gets more assists.

Everything else offensively is pretty close, and JB is a better defender.


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Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #73 on: August 01, 2022, 06:53:10 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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JB and Middleton are very close, but Jaylen is five years younger.  Brown will keep refining his skills, while Middleton’s decline.
Yeah, I think if we offered Brown for Middleton straight up today Milwaukee would take that in a second. Brown would be an upgrade for them next season and only get better from there on. They are close they are both good players. But I see Brown as better.
everyone would trade Middleton for Brown because of their age, but Middleton functions much better as a #2 player because he is a much better distributor, 3 point shooter, and foul generator.  Those skills are most critical for a side kick playing next to a ball dominant player.  Middleton also doesn't function best in the same place on the floor as that ball dominant player like Brown does.   Middleton is better than Brown right now and I expect that to continue next season.  At some point Brown will be better though.
Middleton shoots a whole 1.2% better from three over the last two seasons on less attempts. 3.8% worse from 2PT range.

Brown generates more free throws per minute and per possession, but Middleton has a free throw rate advantage of 0.7%.

"Much better" is an extreme exaggeration. Bordering on a lie.
what does 2 point shooting have to do with what I said?  Middleton is a better 3 point shooter, distributor, and as you acknowledge has a better FTr (and he is a much better FT shooter - which yields a better TS%).  There is nothing that I said that was inaccurate.  Those are all skills that are more critical to the roles they play i.e. off the ball with a ball dominant player. 

Per 100 possessions, they have very similar stats, Brown shoots a bit more and has more total points, but Middleton scores slightly more points per shot (They make basically the same amount of 3's, Middleton makes more FT's, while Brown is much more prolific from 2).  Brown is a better rebounder, Middleton a significantly better passer.  Middleton gets slightly more steals and they are the same blocks per 100 possessions.  Brown takes a bit better care of the ball and they both foul at the same rate.

Statistically they are very close, but I think Middleton is better because his skills are more critical to the role they actually play on the floor.  If they were both #1 scorers, I'd prefer Brown, but neither of them are good enough to be #1 scorers and neither of them are that so that doesn't factor in for me.  As a #2 next to a ball dominant player, I think Middleton is better, and that isn't some crazy notion.
You initially said "much better", which is categorically untrue about foul generation and three point shooting. He is a marginally better three point shooter.

He is a worse foul generator Moranis. He generates less fouls. Generating the tiniest bit higher a ratio of free throws to field goals is not being better at foul generation, let alone "much better". Which is what you said.
the difference between Middleton and Brown shooting last year (and in their careers) is very similar to the difference between Brown and Smart last year. Which is a smaller gap than their FTr. 

Middleton shoots less, but does more per shot all while being a much better distributor.

KM is a better distributor, or at least he gets more assists.

Everything else offensively is pretty close, and JB is a better defender.
Yeah, I watch Middleton and I don't see a better passer. I just see a guy making more correct easy passes that turn into assists, something he grew into with experience.

Give Brown and Tatum another year or two and I could see both averaging 1.5-2 more assists per game simply by making the right easy pass more often.

Re: What was Brad thinking?
« Reply #74 on: August 01, 2022, 07:15:40 AM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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Initially Moranis’ point was Giannis is far and away better than Tatum, that the third best among Bucks-Celtics is KM and the 5th best is JH.  If that’s your perspective obviously you think Milwaukee is the better team - even if you give the edge to Boston on the remaining starters and bench.

I'd rank the players a little differently.  Giannis is clearly better than Tatum.  Giannis is top 3, maybe #1, in the NBA.  Tatum is somewhere around 10-12.  That’s a meaningful gap and if a case is to made that Milwaukee is the top team in the East the argument begins and ends there.   To say with any measure of confidence that KM and JH are better than JB and MB is a reach - you can go either way but a more grounded assessment in my opinion is to say that KM and JB are pretty even for 3rd/4th and JH and MB are pretty even for 5th/6th with Rob breathing down both their necks.

Smart, Rob, Horford White, Grant, Gallo looks pretty solid to me as remaining starters and bench.  I think that does make a difference in Boston’s favor.  Bottom line is the teams are pretty close and I wouldn’t bet against either.