Did we underrate Al Horford

[RJD1974]

Kemba has better scoring stats than Al but is not actually a better player when you look at their positive impact moving forward.

What are you basing this on?   His health?  Not there, every other game.   His scoring?  Offset by his D.  Nice guy for sure but Al seems to affect our team in more positive ways than Kemba did was mainly just scoring.

Al does one thing on a consistent basis that Kemba has never done in any point in his career.   He makes his team mates better.   Kemba is a one trick pony scorer.

Um, methinks you quoted the wrong person. 

[Jiri Welsch]

Kemba has better scoring stats than Al but is not actually a better player when you look at their positive impact moving forward.

What are you basing this on?   His health?  Not there, every other game.   His scoring?  Offset by his D.  Nice guy for sure but Al seems to affect our team in more positive ways than Kemba did was mainly just scoring.

Al does one thing on a consistent basis that Kemba has never done in any point in his career.   He makes his team mates better.   Kemba is a one trick pony scorer.

Yes, that was what I meant when saying, "[Kemba] is not actually a better player."

I think we're in agreement.

[nickagneta]

Al's contract isn't bad if the Celtics don't go to the Finals this year. If the C's don't make it to the Finals, Al's guarantee is only $14.5 million next year, meaning his contract is only $41.5 million for 2 years. Not a great contract, but if Al gives this team 26 MPG with 11 PPG, 6 RPG and 3 APG with good shooting splits and solid defense, all very reasonable expectations, that's not a bad contract.

That is not what anybody is reporting, though. From my understanding, Al will get his full contract amount if we keep him and only $14.5M if he cut. If we do the latter, that is a 1yr, $41.5M contract, which is pretty brutal. I suppose there is a chance we eat the $14.5M and re-sign him for the minimum, but Al would REALLY have to love Boston to do that.

Hoopshype:

Only $14,500,000 guaranteed in 2022/23, HoopsHype has learned. He would get $19,500,000 guaranteed if his team makes it to the NBA Finals in 2021/22. His 2022/23 would be fully guaranteed if his team wins the NBA championship.

Spotrac:

2022 $14.5 million guaranted, $19.5 million guaranteed if PHI makes Finals in 2020, 2021 or 2022, fully if PHI wins Finals (@BobbyMarks, @JeffSiegel)

Fansided:

in 2022-23, he’ll make just over $14 million guaranteed. That number will increase based on team success, so if the Celtics make or win the NBA Finals, Horford can make as much as $26.5 million.

MassLive:

Horford’s contract for the 2022-23 season is only guaranteed for $14.5 million of the $27.5 million he is owed as long as the Celtics don’t make the NBA Finals this year.

Basically anywhere you look it's all based on team performance and nothing is said about him being cut.

[Moranis]

Kemba is better than Al though and we gave up a 1st round pick to do that.

Kemba has better scoring stats than Al but is not actually a better player when you look at their positive impact moving forward.

I just disagree.  Horford is an old man and has lost a lot of the defensive ability that made him so impactful.  He can only guard traditional centers and there just aren't many of them left.  I think he will do fine as the starter playing 20-24 mpg, but he is going to need nights off to not wear down as the season goes on.  Walker, even injured Walker, just has way more potential to impact a team.  Boston made that trade for cap flexibility not to get better on the floor.  They then used some of that cap flexibility to improve other positions, so from that perspective it was fine, but Walker is right now and will continue to be a better player than Horford.

Well, apparently GM Brad Stevens disagrees with you as well as every team that didn’t think Kemba was worth trading for once He landed in OKC.

His contract was huge, that doesn't mean he doesn't have value.  I mean Houston is going to be hard pressed to trade Wall, but it doesn't mean Wall isn't any good.

[Moranis]

Al's contract isn't bad if the Celtics don't go to the Finals this year. If the C's don't make it to the Finals, Al's guarantee is only $14.5 million next year, meaning his contract is only $41.5 million for 2 years. Not a great contract, but if Al gives this team 26 MPG with 11 PPG, 6 RPG and 3 APG with good shooting splits and solid defense, all very reasonable expectations, that's not a bad contract.

That is not what anybody is reporting, though. From my understanding, Al will get his full contract amount if we keep him and only $14.5M if he cut. If we do the latter, that is a 1yr, $41.5M contract, which is pretty brutal. I suppose there is a chance we eat the $14.5M and re-sign him for the minimum, but Al would REALLY have to love Boston to do that.

Hoopshype:

Only $14,500,000 guaranteed in 2022/23, HoopsHype has learned. He would get $19,500,000 guaranteed if his team makes it to the NBA Finals in 2021/22. His 2022/23 would be fully guaranteed if his team wins the NBA championship.

Spotrac:

2022 $14.5 million guaranted, $19.5 million guaranteed if PHI makes Finals in 2020, 2021 or 2022, fully if PHI wins Finals (@BobbyMarks, @JeffSiegel)

Fansided:

in 2022-23, he’ll make just over $14 million guaranteed. That number will increase based on team success, so if the Celtics make or win the NBA Finals, Horford can make as much as $26.5 million.

MassLive:

Horford’s contract for the 2022-23 season is only guaranteed for $14.5 million of the $27.5 million he is owed as long as the Celtics don’t make the NBA Finals this year.

Basically anywhere you look it's all based on team performance and nothing is said about him being cut.

Al's contract for next year is 26.5 million.  The guarantee is absolutely if you cut him and the size of the guarantee is based on team success.  If you don't cut him though he gets the full 26.5 million.

[nickagneta]

Al's contract isn't bad if the Celtics don't go to the Finals this year. If the C's don't make it to the Finals, Al's guarantee is only $14.5 million next year, meaning his contract is only $41.5 million for 2 years. Not a great contract, but if Al gives this team 26 MPG with 11 PPG, 6 RPG and 3 APG with good shooting splits and solid defense, all very reasonable expectations, that's not a bad contract.

That is not what anybody is reporting, though. From my understanding, Al will get his full contract amount if we keep him and only $14.5M if he cut. If we do the latter, that is a 1yr, $41.5M contract, which is pretty brutal. I suppose there is a chance we eat the $14.5M and re-sign him for the minimum, but Al would REALLY have to love Boston to do that.

Hoopshype:

Only $14,500,000 guaranteed in 2022/23, HoopsHype has learned. He would get $19,500,000 guaranteed if his team makes it to the NBA Finals in 2021/22. His 2022/23 would be fully guaranteed if his team wins the NBA championship.

Spotrac:

2022 $14.5 million guaranted, $19.5 million guaranteed if PHI makes Finals in 2020, 2021 or 2022, fully if PHI wins Finals (@BobbyMarks, @JeffSiegel)

Fansided:

in 2022-23, he’ll make just over $14 million guaranteed. That number will increase based on team success, so if the Celtics make or win the NBA Finals, Horford can make as much as $26.5 million.

MassLive:

Horford’s contract for the 2022-23 season is only guaranteed for $14.5 million of the $27.5 million he is owed as long as the Celtics don’t make the NBA Finals this year.

Basically anywhere you look it's all based on team performance and nothing is said about him being cut.

Al's contract for next year is 26.5 million.  The guarantee is absolutely if you cut him and the size of the guarantee is based on team success.  If you don't cut him though he gets the full 26.5 million.

Please show me where you are getting this info because everywhere I look it's just an incentive guarantee, much like what Jaylen and Timelord have in their contracts for games played or post season awards teams made.

[Vermont Green]

Please show me where you are getting this info because everywhere I look it's just an incentive guarantee, much like what Jaylen and Timelord have in their contracts for games played or post season awards teams made.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/al-horford-2199/

A partially guaranteed contract means exactly what is described by others above, as I understand it.  The partial guarantee is $14.5M but increases to $19M if the Celtics make the finals.  The partial guarantee increases, not the contract value.  The contract value is $26.5M.  This is more like Parker's contract than like Brown's.  What is not clear is when the full contract would become guaranteed.  The $14.5M is more like a pre-negotiated buy out.  The contract value though is $26.5M in any and in all cases.  So either the Celtics "buy him out" at the agreed to value of $14.5M (or $19M if they make the finals) and he goes and plays for someone else or they don't buy him out, and he is under contract for the year for $26.5M.

[Roy H.]

The above is correct:  if Al plays out the year, he receives $26.5 million, period.  The $14.5 million is the least he can make, it cut.

Incidentally, the best thing to do may be to waive him, stretch him, and re-sign him to a new contract that lets him retire in Boston.

[Csfan1984]

The above is correct:  if Al plays out the year, he receives $26.5 million, period.  The $14.5 million is the least he can make, it cut.

Incidentally, the best thing to do may be to waive him, stretch him, and re-sign him to a new contract that lets him retire in Boston.

Just my take but Horford has probably 3 years left in the league. Doubt C's give him a 3 year. Given how he has handle FA so far he goes to highest bidder. If they cut him he signs probably for Hornets at 12 to 15 per for three years.

[Muzzy66]

On Al's initial go around with the C's did we underrate his value to the team and maybe in the league in general. There were some complaints that he wasn't living up to his contract. But is it possible that the team around him limited his opportunity to reach that value?

Depends on your perspective I guess.  Did the team around him limit his ability to reach his value?  Or was he simply the hero we wanted, but not the hero we needed? 

We had a young team with star shoot-first point guards (IT4 and then Kyrie).  We desperately lacked a consistent #2 guy on offence who could ste up as an Alpha guy carry the team offensiively when our top guy had a bad game.  Hayward was supposed to be that guy, but that went down the toilet when he got injured. 

By default this kinda led to us hanging our hopes on Horford to become that guy, but it just isn't really who he has ever been.  Al Ha always been that versatile "do it all" guy.  He's that complimentary piece who everything well and contributes in so many ways, plus once every 3 or 4 games he can put up a nice offensive night.  He's never really been a pure scorer - which is (IMHO) what we really needed at the time.   

Fast forward to now, and we have a pair of 2-way stars on our roster who are capable of scoring 50 on any given night, so we don't really have any need for another volume scorer.  What we really need is more of those complimentary 'swiss army knife' guys who can do a little bit of everything on both ends of the court to help take a bit of the load off Brown and Tatum.  Horford (assuming he can still produce at a high level) is probably the perfect complimentary piece for our roster as it's currently constructed. 

[GreenlyGreeny]

In retrospect, we should have paid him and Rozier instead of bringing in Kneeless Kemba. The post-Kyrie phase would have been less painful.

[SHAQATTACK]

In retrospect, we should have paid him and Rozier instead of bringing in Kneeless Kemba. The post-Kyrie phase would have been less painful.

TP

But the silver lining is DA is out the door along with Kemba

[Vermont Green]

The above is correct:  if Al plays out the year, he receives $26.5 million, period.  The $14.5 million is the least he can make, it cut.

Incidentally, the best thing to do may be to waive him, stretch him, and re-sign him to a new contract that lets him retire in Boston.

A player that is bought out cannot resign or be claimed by the team that bought him out until one year or after the end of the bought out contract, whichever comes first.

If a player is bought out, he cannot resign with the same team.  I do not recall that there was ever a case where a team waived a player and then resigned them to a lesser contract.  It just doesn't seem like this would be allowable.

I suppose that Horford and the Celtics could renegotiate the contract but usually in those cases, any remaining years on the contract stay as is, meaning that he would get the $26.5M but added years at significantly less.  So say it is $26.5M, $5M, $5M so a total of $36.5M over 3 years but with a big upfront payment.  This is good for Al as he doesn't need to go find another contract and he can stay in Boston.  Maybe good for Boston, tough that first year but then good.  He would have to get 3 years and $22M to add to his $14.5M "buy out" to beat this on the market.

I have a hunch that they would not be able to waive him, stretch him, and resign him.  I can't find the specific rule but this just seems too convoluted as a way to get around paying a player his contract.  Maybe some others know the rules better.

[Roy H.]

The above is correct:  if Al plays out the year, he receives $26.5 million, period.  The $14.5 million is the least he can make, it cut.

Incidentally, the best thing to do may be to waive him, stretch him, and re-sign him to a new contract that lets him retire in Boston.

A player that is bought out cannot resign or be claimed by the team that bought him out until one year or after the end of the bought out contract, whichever comes first.

If a player is bought out, he cannot resign with the same team.  I do not recall that there was ever a case where a team waived a player and then resigned them to a lesser contract.  It just doesn't seem like this would be allowable.

I suppose that Horford and the Celtics could renegotiate the contract but usually in those cases, any remaining years on the contract stay as is, meaning that he would get the $26.5M but added years at significantly less.  So say it is $26.5M, $5M, $5M so a total of $36.5M over 3 years but with a big upfront payment.  This is good for Al as he doesn't need to go find another contract and he can stay in Boston.  Maybe good for Boston, tough that first year but then good.  He would have to get 3 years and $22M to add to his $14.5M "buy out" to beat this on the market.

I have a hunch that they would not be able to waive him, stretch him, and resign him.  I can't find the specific rule but this just seems too convoluted as a way to get around paying a player his contract.  Maybe some others know the rules better.

You can waive players and resign them, so long as you don’t buy them out.

One of many examples:  the Rockets recently waived Tyler Bey, and are re-signing him to a two-way deal.

[No Nickname]

The above is correct:  if Al plays out the year, he receives $26.5 million, period.  The $14.5 million is the least he can make, it cut.

Incidentally, the best thing to do may be to waive him, stretch him, and re-sign him to a new contract that lets him retire in Boston.

A player that is bought out cannot resign or be claimed by the team that bought him out until one year or after the end of the bought out contract, whichever comes first.

If a player is bought out, he cannot resign with the same team.  I do not recall that there was ever a case where a team waived a player and then resigned them to a lesser contract.  It just doesn't seem like this would be allowable.

I suppose that Horford and the Celtics could renegotiate the contract but usually in those cases, any remaining years on the contract stay as is, meaning that he would get the $26.5M but added years at significantly less.  So say it is $26.5M, $5M, $5M so a total of $36.5M over 3 years but with a big upfront payment.  This is good for Al as he doesn't need to go find another contract and he can stay in Boston.  Maybe good for Boston, tough that first year but then good.  He would have to get 3 years and $22M to add to his $14.5M "buy out" to beat this on the market.

I have a hunch that they would not be able to waive him, stretch him, and resign him.  I can't find the specific rule but this just seems too convoluted as a way to get around paying a player his contract.  Maybe some others know the rules better.

You can waive players and resign them, so long as you don’t buy them out.

And if you waive him, you'd just run the risk that someone else would pick him up at his current salary?  Is that correct?