Who was Danny’s worst draft pick?

[Ogaju]

For me - this question always boils down to opportunity cost.  Who we drafted versus who we should have (with the understanding that hindsight is 20/20).

Unfortunately, drafting Olynyk over Giannis was legacy altering.   Yes, KO went on to be a serviceable rotation big.  But Giannis is a generational talent - an MVP and DPOY who can serve as the anchor to a team with title aspirations.

The Celtics scouted the Greek Freak pretty extensively.   In the end, they went with a player with a higher floor, but much lower ceiling.  My quibble with this move - the Celtics had just traded away KG and Pierce.  The rebuild was well underway.  Given that context, that just seemed like the right time to take a flyer on a player like Giannis, with a middle of the first round pick. Olynyk's selection was the conservative approach.  For a team that struggles to recruit the truly elite players - you have to roll the dice in the draft.

Compunding matters, they traded two 2nd rounders to move up to 13.  One of those was a 2014 Brooklyn 2nd round pick which wound up 34th overall in 2014.  Nikola Jokic was selected 7 picks later at 41st.   Either of these two players would have turned into cornerstones, with Brown and Tatum coming later via the Nets lottery picks. 

If the Celtics had been able to draft either of these guys - we're viewing Ainge very differently right now.

We had just hired Brad Stevens, and I recall Ainge asking Brad his opinion of Kelly pre-draft, and Brad said that his team couldn't guard him, an endorsement of drafting him, I suppose.  Wonder if Brad's view on Kelly affected Danny's decision to take Kelly; he in fact traded up to get him. Of course if he hadn't moved up, I think the Bucks would have had the pick before us, IIRC.

Not blaming Brad, but just wondering.

If Brad cost Cs Giannis he should be fired for that alone.

[jambr380]

I have actually been a defender of KO in the Giannis debate, simply because KO has been a pretty good player and that's all you can expect with a mid-1st.

BUT, if we are answering this question in terms of franchise impact, and not just who is the worst player that Ainge has selected; then KO is by far the #1 choice. Giannis is a generational talent. We actually took multiple trips overseas to scout him and then traded up to the proper spot to select him. Not having Giannis is the difference between us having 17 Titles and like 20+ right now (w/ more to come).

[hwangjini_1]

Obviously, everybody is going to have their own criteria here. For me, it is selecting a guy who completely couldn’t play, mixed with there being clearly better options in the draft.

I’m going to say Yabusele.  He had to horrible years here, and was so bad that no other NBA team even took a flyer on him.

And, he was a reach at the time.  There were no superstars available, but LaVert, Beasley, Siakim, Brogdon and Murray were all on the board.

The kicker is that we had to “stretch” him, meaning he has counted $1+ million on our books for the past few years. 

I expect the consensus here might be KO, but he could play and has had a good career.

Other options:  Marcus Banks, James Young, Fab Melo, J.R. Giddens

I would agree with this. Worst part is, the Celtics even had a private workout with Siakam prior to the draft.  Danny loves his “Tweeners” and undersized scrappy players though. He’s terrible at drafting mid to late first and forget about the second round. When is the last time Danny drafted a player in the 2nd round that worked out? I can’t think of any. Fortunately, he hit on Jaylen and Jayson big time, so all is forgiven.

please do some research instead from rummaging through your memory and finding evidence to fit pre-existing preferences.

- semi ojeleye, say what you will, for a second rounder to play in well over 200 games in 4 years is working out.

E'Twaun Moore, ten years in the nba

Ryan Gomes 8 years & 487 games

Big baby david, 8 years and over 500 games, drafted for the celtics

mid to late first rounders that worked out?

payton pritchard, if you want to argue it is too soon to tell, i understand and dont' disagree totally.

kelly olynyk, drafter FOR the celtics

Terry Rozier, clearly working out

jared sullinger, a decent player until he ate himself out of the league

al jefferson

delonte west

tony allen


jury is still out on langford and nesmith.

 

[todd_days_41]

Two different criteria are being debated in this thread:

1) Worst player drafted
2) Biggest miss

The two don't really have much in common. To me, the worst pick is the worst miss, thus setting back the franchise more. If Ainge picked a bad player in a bad draft (where virtually everyone else behind him also came away with a useless player), it's illogical to call that his worst pick, IMO. The Fab Melo example fits this pretty well. Did the pick set the Cs back? End of the day, in a Star driven league.... not really.

It's where he failed to identify the best talent available that's evidence of his worst pick. So the better question might be: what was his worst draft? And 2013 is the answer.

Hello gang?

[Roy H.]

Two different criteria are being debated in this thread:

1) Worst player drafted
2) Biggest miss

The two don't really have much in common. To me, the worst pick is the worst miss, thus setting back the franchise more. If Ainge picked a bad player in a bad draft (where virtually everyone else behind him also came away with a useless player), it's illogical to call that his worst pick, IMO. The Fab Melo example fits this pretty well. Did the pick set the Cs back? End of the day, in a Star driven league.... not really.

It's where he failed to identify the best talent available that's evidence of his worst pick. So the better question might be: what was his worst draft? And 2013 is the answer.

Hello gang?

I thought that this might be the most common answer, but I’m not sure that it is fair analysis. Literally nobody projected Giannis to be an MVP, or even an all-star. They saw a skinny, raw kid with upside.

I mean, by this logic, couldn’t you argue that Kyrie, Kemba and Klay were all bad draft picks in 2011? Because none of them were as good as Kawhi? 

Or that 39 of the first 40 picks in 2014 were bad picks, because only Embiid holds a candle to Jokic?

[Moranis]

Two different criteria are being debated in this thread:

1) Worst player drafted
2) Biggest miss

The two don't really have much in common. To me, the worst pick is the worst miss, thus setting back the franchise more. If Ainge picked a bad player in a bad draft (where virtually everyone else behind him also came away with a useless player), it's illogical to call that his worst pick, IMO. The Fab Melo example fits this pretty well. Did the pick set the Cs back? End of the day, in a Star driven league.... not really.

It's where he failed to identify the best talent available that's evidence of his worst pick. So the better question might be: what was his worst draft? And 2013 is the answer.

Hello gang?

I thought that this might be the most common answer, but I’m not sure that it is fair analysis. Literally nobody projected Giannis to be an MVP, or even an all-star. They saw a skinny, raw kid with upside.

I mean, by this logic, couldn’t you argue that Kyrie, Kemba and Klay were all bad draft picks in 2011? Because none of them were as good as Kawhi? 

Or that 39 of the first 40 picks in 2014 were bad picks, because only Embiid holds a candle to Jokic?

Exactly.  And the 2012 draft had 6 all stars from it, two of them went after Melo.  3 of the top 8 in WS went after Melo and another is 12th in WS and there are 3 more in the top 19.  It wasn't like everyone was garbage from Melo on.  How much different does the franchise look with Draymond Green or Khris Middleton? And unlike KO, Melo was a horrid NBA player.  I think you can reasonably argue that Fab Melo was the worst 1st round pick of the last 20 years (maybe longer).  There really aren't that many that are even in contention with him and frankly one that is was also an Ainge pick (Johnson) and Yabusele isn't much further back.  Sergia Monia, Nemanja Nedovic, and Troy Bell also only played in 1 season and there are a couple of Europeans that never came over (Fran Vasquez being the highest drafted) and some guys that made 2 years but with very few games or minutes like Ndudi Ebi, Joseph Forte, Kirk Haston, Brice Johnson, Georgiao Papagiannis, and a few others. 

[todd_days_41]

Two different criteria are being debated in this thread:

1) Worst player drafted
2) Biggest miss

The two don't really have much in common. To me, the worst pick is the worst miss, thus setting back the franchise more. If Ainge picked a bad player in a bad draft (where virtually everyone else behind him also came away with a useless player), it's illogical to call that his worst pick, IMO. The Fab Melo example fits this pretty well. Did the pick set the Cs back? End of the day, in a Star driven league.... not really.

It's where he failed to identify the best talent available that's evidence of his worst pick. So the better question might be: what was his worst draft? And 2013 is the answer.

Hello gang?

I thought that this might be the most common answer, but I’m not sure that it is fair analysis. Literally nobody projected Giannis to be an MVP, or even an all-star. They saw a skinny, raw kid with upside.

I mean, by this logic, couldn’t you argue that Kyrie, Kemba and Klay were all bad draft picks in 2011? Because none of them were as good as Kawhi? 

Or that 39 of the first 40 picks in 2014 were bad picks, because only Embiid holds a candle to Jokic?

Avoided my point. Was 2013 not Ainge's biggest draft miss? Obviously it was. By far. He traded from 16 to 13 to take a guy. But the one taken at 15 is an absolute superstar.

As for the predictions you mentioned, there was a ton of chatter before the draft about Giannis' unusual upside.

[Roy H.]

Two different criteria are being debated in this thread:

1) Worst player drafted
2) Biggest miss

The two don't really have much in common. To me, the worst pick is the worst miss, thus setting back the franchise more. If Ainge picked a bad player in a bad draft (where virtually everyone else behind him also came away with a useless player), it's illogical to call that his worst pick, IMO. The Fab Melo example fits this pretty well. Did the pick set the Cs back? End of the day, in a Star driven league.... not really.

It's where he failed to identify the best talent available that's evidence of his worst pick. So the better question might be: what was his worst draft? And 2013 is the answer.

Hello gang?

I thought that this might be the most common answer, but I’m not sure that it is fair analysis. Literally nobody projected Giannis to be an MVP, or even an all-star. They saw a skinny, raw kid with upside.

I mean, by this logic, couldn’t you argue that Kyrie, Kemba and Klay were all bad draft picks in 2011? Because none of them were as good as Kawhi? 

Or that 39 of the first 40 picks in 2014 were bad picks, because only Embiid holds a candle to Jokic?

Exactly.  And the 2012 draft had 6 all stars from it, two of them went after Melo.  3 of the top 8 in WS went after Melo and another is 12th in WS and there are 3 more in the top 19.  It wasn't like everyone was garbage from Melo on.  How much different does the franchise look with Draymond Green or Khris Middleton? And unlike KO, Melo was a horrid NBA player.  I think you can reasonably argue that Fab Melo was the worst 1st round pick of the last 20 years (maybe longer).  There really aren't that many that are even in contention with him and frankly one that is was also an Ainge pick (Johnson) and Yabusele isn't much further back.  Sergia Monia, Nemanja Nedovic, and Troy Bell also only played in 1 season and there are a couple of Europeans that never came over (Fran Vasquez being the highest drafted) and some guys that made 2 years but with very few games or minutes like Ndudi Ebi, Joseph Forte, Kirk Haston, Brice Johnson, Georgiao Papagiannis, and a few others.

Worst draft pick of the last 20 years?  I think you named a prime candidate:  Vazquez.  It's not like there weren't good options on the board; Danny Granger (rightfully) and Gerald Green (wrongfully) were highly regarded, and there were several NBA starters drafted after Vazquez.  Taking a player who never even signs with your franchise is about as bad as it gets.

Even worse, though, were probably Darko and Tskitishvili.  Two absolute busts taken before obvious perennial all-star types.

[SHAQATTACK]

RIP Fab Melo ....


Triple J sucked big time.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Two different criteria are being debated in this thread:

1) Worst player drafted
2) Biggest miss

The two don't really have much in common. To me, the worst pick is the worst miss, thus setting back the franchise more. If Ainge picked a bad player in a bad draft (where virtually everyone else behind him also came away with a useless player), it's illogical to call that his worst pick, IMO. The Fab Melo example fits this pretty well. Did the pick set the Cs back? End of the day, in a Star driven league.... not really.

It's where he failed to identify the best talent available that's evidence of his worst pick. So the better question might be: what was his worst draft? And 2013 is the answer.

Hello gang?

I thought that this might be the most common answer, but I’m not sure that it is fair analysis. Literally nobody projected Giannis to be an MVP, or even an all-star. They saw a skinny, raw kid with upside.

I mean, by this logic, couldn’t you argue that Kyrie, Kemba and Klay were all bad draft picks in 2011? Because none of them were as good as Kawhi? 

Or that 39 of the first 40 picks in 2014 were bad picks, because only Embiid holds a candle to Jokic?

Exactly.  And the 2012 draft had 6 all stars from it, two of them went after Melo.  3 of the top 8 in WS went after Melo and another is 12th in WS and there are 3 more in the top 19.  It wasn't like everyone was garbage from Melo on.  How much different does the franchise look with Draymond Green or Khris Middleton? And unlike KO, Melo was a horrid NBA player.  I think you can reasonably argue that Fab Melo was the worst 1st round pick of the last 20 years (maybe longer).  There really aren't that many that are even in contention with him and frankly one that is was also an Ainge pick (Johnson) and Yabusele isn't much further back.  Sergia Monia, Nemanja Nedovic, and Troy Bell also only played in 1 season and there are a couple of Europeans that never came over (Fran Vasquez being the highest drafted) and some guys that made 2 years but with very few games or minutes like Ndudi Ebi, Joseph Forte, Kirk Haston, Brice Johnson, Georgiao Papagiannis, and a few others.

Am I the only one who remembers that Fab Melo tore it up in the G League?

[nickagneta]

Two different criteria are being debated in this thread:

1) Worst player drafted
2) Biggest miss

The two don't really have much in common. To me, the worst pick is the worst miss, thus setting back the franchise more. If Ainge picked a bad player in a bad draft (where virtually everyone else behind him also came away with a useless player), it's illogical to call that his worst pick, IMO. The Fab Melo example fits this pretty well. Did the pick set the Cs back? End of the day, in a Star driven league.... not really.

It's where he failed to identify the best talent available that's evidence of his worst pick. So the better question might be: what was his worst draft? And 2013 is the answer.

Hello gang?

I thought that this might be the most common answer, but I’m not sure that it is fair analysis. Literally nobody projected Giannis to be an MVP, or even an all-star. They saw a skinny, raw kid with upside.

I mean, by this logic, couldn’t you argue that Kyrie, Kemba and Klay were all bad draft picks in 2011? Because none of them were as good as Kawhi? 

Or that 39 of the first 40 picks in 2014 were bad picks, because only Embiid holds a candle to Jokic?

Exactly.  And the 2012 draft had 6 all stars from it, two of them went after Melo.  3 of the top 8 in WS went after Melo and another is 12th in WS and there are 3 more in the top 19.  It wasn't like everyone was garbage from Melo on.  How much different does the franchise look with Draymond Green or Khris Middleton? And unlike KO, Melo was a horrid NBA player.  I think you can reasonably argue that Fab Melo was the worst 1st round pick of the last 20 years (maybe longer).  There really aren't that many that are even in contention with him and frankly one that is was also an Ainge pick (Johnson) and Yabusele isn't much further back.  Sergia Monia, Nemanja Nedovic, and Troy Bell also only played in 1 season and there are a couple of Europeans that never came over (Fran Vasquez being the highest drafted) and some guys that made 2 years but with very few games or minutes like Ndudi Ebi, Joseph Forte, Kirk Haston, Brice Johnson, Georgiao Papagiannis, and a few others.

Worst draft pick of the last 20 years?  I think you named a prime candidate:  Vazquez.  It's not like there weren't good options on the board; Danny Granger (rightfully) and Gerald Green (wrongfully) were highly regarded, and there were several NBA starters drafted after Vazquez.  Taking a player who never even signs with your franchise is about as bad as it gets.

Even worse, though, were probably Darko and Tskitishvili.  Two absolute busts taken before obvious perennial all-star types.

I'll throw Royce White into the fray as worst draft pick in the last 20 years.

He was taken 16th by Houston in 2012. Never played a minute for them. Traded to Philly in summer of 2013. Never played a minute for them. Got released. Signed a 10-day contract with Sacramento in 2014 to play in 3 games for total of 9 minutes in which his entire contribution was 1 missed shot and 2 personal fouls. That's it. Those numbers are worse than Fab Melo's.

The strange thing was, everyone knew he had issues going into the draft. People knew about the crippling anxiety but were enamored with his potential. Today, such signs would probably have relegated White to a mid to late 2nd rounder.