Author Topic: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft  (Read 2598 times)

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The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« on: January 25, 2021, 11:23:55 AM »

Offline CFAN38

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Listening to Chad Fords podcast this morning I came to a realization that this is a draft first round that the Cs really need to run away from. This is nothing against the talent of the class. It has everything to do with the lack of scouting. NBA teams are going to know much less about these prospects then is typical of a draft class. The freshman lost the exposure of the 2020 AAU circuit, teams are not getting into college practices, scouts are not traveling to many games, and a chunk of elite players are in G-League. This could very well lead to a lot of gambling picks.

While I'm usually a big proponent of building through the draft this team and this draft are culminating into a clear trade the pick for an established player scenario.



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Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2021, 11:30:26 AM »

Offline NKY fan

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If scouting is a systematic problem for this draft all the reasons to pile up cheap second rounders and see if a good player falls to you.
If we compile 4/5 picks in the 25-55 range that will be great. See what sticks after you work with the draftees for an off-season.

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2021, 11:45:38 AM »

Offline gift

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If scouting is a systematic problem for this draft all the reasons to pile up cheap second rounders and see if a good player falls to you.
If we compile 4/5 picks in the 25-55 range that will be great. See what sticks after you work with the draftees for an off-season.

Agree. Assuming you buy that scouting will suffer, it means a greater chance better players slip. Which is a reason for better teams to hold on to later picks. Then again, traditional scouting and decision making leads to a lot of mistaken draft picks, so maybe with less traditional process teams just make more of the obvious and "better" picks.

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2021, 12:05:55 PM »

Offline CFAN38

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If scouting is a systematic problem for this draft all the reasons to pile up cheap second rounders and see if a good player falls to you.
If we compile 4/5 picks in the 25-55 range that will be great. See what sticks after you work with the draftees for an off-season.

I'm not sure about spending the assets to acquire 4-5 second round picks but I can see the uncertainty of this draft making for a redraft 5 years from now full of surprise 2nd round guys.
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Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2021, 12:18:48 PM »

Offline NKY fan

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If scouting is a systematic problem for this draft all the reasons to pile up cheap second rounders and see if a good player falls to you.
If we compile 4/5 picks in the 25-55 range that will be great. See what sticks after you work with the draftees for an off-season.

I'm not sure about spending the assets to acquire 4-5 second round picks but I can see the uncertainty of this draft making for a redraft 5 years from now full of surprise 2nd round guys.
Some teams might want to shed salary (to avoid luxury tax and repeater tax in the fiuture) like bucks , Jazz and sixers and we have TPE. I think something can be worked out with those teams.

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2021, 02:40:20 PM »

Offline slamtheking

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so, if I'm understanding the premise correctly, there's been a number of posters complaining about Danny being a bad drafter and/or squandering the draft assets he's acquired over the years and/or the team having enough or too many young players (either because they need development time they're not getting or aren't good enough to play) BUT NOW there's a desire for him to load up on second round draft picks after our draft capital is gone and an already very full roster of players has to be dealt with so we'd be better off also loading up on long shot second round prospects that people think Danny will find a surprise gem from a multitude of picks?   ::)

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2021, 02:46:31 PM »

Offline NKY fan

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so, if I'm understanding the premise correctly, there's been a number of posters complaining about Danny being a bad drafter and/or squandering the draft assets he's acquired over the years and/or the team having enough or too many young players (either because they need development time they're not getting or aren't good enough to play) BUT NOW there's a desire for him to load up on second round draft picks after our draft capital is gone and an already very full roster of players has to be dealt with so we'd be better off also loading up on long shot second round prospects that people think Danny will find a surprise gem from a multitude of picks?   ::)
This is the longest sentence I have ever read lol
The idea is make a few second rounders , give them summer league and camp and move forward with 0-2 of those if someone surprises. The idea is not to draft 5 players and sign them all to long term or give them all the time needed to develop.
Off course the premise of the post was - do not make draft picks in 2021 lol

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2021, 03:03:21 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Trouble is that most other teams will be thinking the same thing.  Makes it tough to get any value for a pick.
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Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2021, 03:53:41 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Two ways to look at that. They have a mid-to-late first round pick. Maybe talent drops and the Cs can get lucky. Gambling is much more palatable when you have a ton of young players already on your roster and the pick is a late first.

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2021, 04:21:04 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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I’d rather they trade draft picks for proven talent while using the TPE.  We have enough young players.

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2021, 06:17:05 PM »

Offline footey

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Listening to Chad Fords podcast this morning I came to a realization that this is a draft first round that the Cs really need to run away from. This is nothing against the talent of the class. It has everything to do with the lack of scouting. NBA teams are going to know much less about these prospects then is typical of a draft class. The freshman lost the exposure of the 2020 AAU circuit, teams are not getting into college practices, scouts are not traveling to many games, and a chunk of elite players are in G-League. This could very well lead to a lot of gambling picks.

While I'm usually a big proponent of building through the draft this team and this draft are culminating into a clear trade the pick for an established player scenario.

Good points.

On the other hand, this is the season to soft tank (i.e. for the 5th or 6th seed) since Home Court Advantage is pretty diminished, unless teams are able to fill the arenas come playoff time (which I highly doubt). 

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2021, 07:33:18 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Listening to Chad Fords podcast this morning I came to a realization that this is a draft first round that the Cs really need to run away from. This is nothing against the talent of the class. It has everything to do with the lack of scouting. NBA teams are going to know much less about these prospects then is typical of a draft class. The freshman lost the exposure of the 2020 AAU circuit, teams are not getting into college practices, scouts are not traveling to many games, and a chunk of elite players are in G-League. This could very well lead to a lot of gambling picks.

While I'm usually a big proponent of building through the draft this team and this draft are culminating into a clear trade the pick for an established player scenario.
The scouting was limited last year as well.

There is still tons of video on the one and dones and non freshman prospects. The athletic departments of schools will provide video of every game played this year, if it's requested. And there were lots of in person scouting that took place at the high school and college level for that group last year. 

Now, the straight out of high school kids, yes, probably a lot less info on them, but the best of the best of that group has been followed for years and scouting departments have loads of info on them already.

I see no reason to run scared from this draft due to lack of scouting. There's still tons of scouting that can be done and maybe even an in person combine and interview sessions, depending on Covid.

Re: The Celtics approach to the 2021 draft
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2021, 07:46:52 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I share some of your concerns regarding exposure, or lack thereof, to actual competition for this class. I've been a big fan of these players for years - Green, Cunningham, Kuminga, and Williams have all been long-term favourites of mine.

However, I'm not sure there's a need to run away from this draft or anything. We've got Daniel Theis, Jeff Teague and Semi Ojeleye coming off the books this off-season. Theis will probably demand more money than we're willing to offer him given the addition of Tristan Thompson and the ascendance of Robert Williams. We should also look to add a 3rd string guard to replace Teague. Not sure if Semi will stick around, but if he doesn't I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

So that leaves us with 3 holes in our roster. 3rd string guard, 3rd string big and a general bench forward. Given we have 3 picks in this upcoming draft, I would like to see us use them all. Kemba, Brown, Tatum, Smart and Thompson are a good collection of veterans. We have some solid young talent in Pritchard, Langford and Nesmith, and adding a few guys to that would be great IMO. I am pretty high on Yam Madar, and think he could be a potential guy to come over next year and play as our 3rd string PG. But if he doesn't, we should look at another NBA-ready guy.

Throw in the potential addition of someone with the TPE (Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross, etc.) an

If we can leave the draft with Luka Garza (skilled physical big at the end of 2nd round), David Johnson (versatile combo guard with size at the end of the first - early 2nd) and Aaron Henry (defensive specialist wing in the 2nd round) I would be ecstatic.

Throw in the potential addition of someone with the TPE (Harrison Barnes, Aaron Gordon, Terrence Ross, etc.) and our rotation next year could look like:
Kemba Walker / Payton Pritchard / David Johnson
Marcus Smart / Romeo Langford / Carsen Edwards
Jaylen Brown / Aaron Nesmith / Aaron Henry
Jayson Tatum / Harrison Barnes / Grant Williams
Robert Williams / Tristan Thompson / Luka Garza

That would be a fantastic result in my opinion. This draft, given we have no top picks and no realistic avenue to a top pick (barring a crazy trade) would be a good one to target proven upper-age prospects. Guys like PP last year have shown the merit to doing this, especially if you get the character assessment right. I think Garza fits this bill to a tee, as does Henry and to an extent Johnson.

While I do agree with you to an extent, particularly about the top prospects, I think there is still plenty to be added to this team from the upcoming draft.
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PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
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