Vucevic is easily the second best center in the East.
I would still take Horford over him.
Yeah, Vucevic is wildly overrated. He's putting up good numbers but for the most part it's just empty calories. He provides little impact on winning, and is an atrocious defender.
Horford, even slowed down a step, is still an immensely more valuable player.
TP to you.
When will people understand that stats are not 2k ratings. Generally, you can't do a comparison of stats to figure out who is the better player, especially when one player is on a winning team and one is on a losing team.
Because the Magic do not have another good option, they run all of their offense through him. The result is a lottery team. Sure, he puts up some good stats, but good stats on lottery teams does not mean he would have good stats on a good team, especially when his role changes and the offense doesn't run through him as much.
A great example of this is Spencer Hawes from when they Sixers started tanking. The Sixers were awful, but Hawes averaged 13 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1 blocks. Everyone said, "Look! A stretch 5! Such and such a team would benefit from his presence greatly!"
3 years later, he was out of the league, having never made a significant dent in any winning team's rotation the rest of his career.
I think Vucevic is a better player than Hawes. I do think he can help a winning team, but there are definite parallels between Hawes and Vucevic. His ideal role on a winning team is very similar to Brook Lopez this year. He would stretch the floor, set picks outside, run hand-offs and the occasional backdoor, and rarely take advantage of mismatches inside. I think he can be better than Lopez, but his role would be similar. On a winning team, I'd expect his production to be less than Nurkic, because Nurkic is a much better defender, but better than Lopez, because Vucevic is a much better rebounder.
How likely is it that Vucevic would be willing to accept a lesser role like Lopez did? How likely is it that he would be as efficient in a lesser role? If he played for a winning team, wouldn't he be hunted by opposing offenses in the playoffs? I know Kyrie, Brown, Hayward, and Tatum would hunt him.
You can't hunt Horford in significant ways. I know he's not as good this year as he has been in previous years, but he's still a very versatile defender inside and outside. Horford has also been an integral part of top offenses in the NBA for the last decade. He knows how to play his role. He knows how to pick his spots. He knows how to play with the ball and without the ball.
Maybe Vucevic continues to add to his game and develop as a defender. If that happens, as Horford declines, there may come a point when Vucevic is better than Horford, but stats won't ever dictate that.
I would always rather have a guy that contributed to winning in the playoffs than an empty stat guy on a lottery team.
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