IP's 3-Part Plan To Beating Phoenix
Part 1: Deal with Dwight. Or, At Least Try To.Phoenix has the most dominant big man in basketball, at least defensively. I can’t argue that. However, my own primary big man, Joakim Noah, isn’t too shabby himself. Noah, like Howard, is an elite rebounding center with a penchant for tough defense.
At first, the news does not look good for Sweet Home Chicago. The two big men have met 9 times in their career, and when those 9 games are averaged together, Dwight Howard has dominated the Chicago big man.
But, that doesn’t really tell a fair story. Over those 9 games there is a huge minute discrepancy, with Howard averaging 32.9 mins per game, and Noah averaging 18.9.
However, much of that minute discrepancy is due to games early in Noah’s career, or games in which Noah had his minutes limited for one reason or another.
In games where Noah managed to play 20 minutes or more, the story changes a little bit.
In those games, per 36 minutes, Dwight Howard’s FG% drops to below 60%, his rebounds drop significantly (about 10%), his blocks drop significantly (2.9 per game to 1.2). His scoring goes up to 22 points per game (as opposed to 19 ppg per 36 minutes). The scoring however is possibly a product of Howard’s increased field goal attempts over the same time.
Noah on a per 36 minute basis (he averaged 28 per contest in the games I looked at) also has another story to tell. 60% FG% (20% increase), and a 95% increase in FT’s attempted. That is probably why he scored 17.4 pp36 (30% increase), despite attempting the same amount of FT’s per 36 as he did during the regular season.
That was the good news for Chicago. There is bad news too. The bad news is that in games against Howard, Noah tends to foul. Noah’s per 36 fouls in the games examined is 5.1, which is a 38% increase from his season norm last year. 3 times against Howard has Noah achieved 3 fouls or more in 20 minutes or less.
The first thing I would do to combat this is pray. While it is likely that Noah will finish most games with 4 fouls or more, there is no way that he will start every game with 2 or 3 quick fouls. It would be silly, however, to think that Noah could go an entire 7 game series against Howard without getting in serious foul trouble in a game or two.
The only way I can combat this is by first exhausting Omer Asik in those minutes when Noah has to sit. Asik is 7 feet with the length to combat Howard, but he’s nowhere near the athlete and he’s got nowhere near the strength. If Howard gets the ball in the paint with good position on Asik, orders are to foul hard, and ask questions later. Asik has 6 fouls to give, and he’ll probably use all of them. This is the same strategy that most teams use on Howard, since it is pretty darn near impossible to imagine that you have 2 guys that are capable of guarding Howard. If Noah can stay in, his numbers prove he can limit Howard offensively. I think I’m easily the better team then. If Noah cannot stay in my odds of winning decrease substantially. Make no mistake, I will win this series, but it will be far from a sweep.
Part II: Exploit the weakness(es).After Dwight Howard I’d put forward that I have an advantage at every position. Brandon Jennings as a rookie played Baron Davis in march of 2010. This was after Jennings scored 55 on Golden State, and it was in the middle of his shooting slump of last season. People had figured out how to guard Jennings and Jennings was struggling a lot of nights.
Jennings scored 21 points on 56% shooting, 42% from 3, with 5 rebounds and 5 assists. Davis scored 14 points to go with 1 rebound and 7 assists. One game doesn’t mean domination by Jennings, but I think in that one game Jennings proved he could score on Davis, and at a pretty high clip. Baron Davis is a big strong guy but he ain’t as fast as he used to be and there have been pretty solid allegations that he’s struggling with his weight this off-season. Because of that I have very high doubts that Davis can guard Jennings on a 1 on 1 basis.
Last year it was pretty obvious that Antawn Jamison had lost a step. Kevin Garnett dominated him in the conference finals, and he looked lost next to LeBron in Cleveland, and didn’t look like the player he had been the previous 4 years in Washington. Jamison also had his lowest games played last year in 10 years, his lowest point total since 2004, his lowest PER since 2005, and his lowest minutes played since 2004. His defense has always been suspect. Here is what Hollinger says on Jamison’s defense:
Scouting report: If Jamison has a weakness, it's his defense, and the absence of Brendan Haywood last year magnified that problem. He's a disinterested help defender who rarely blocks shots or takes charges, and quicker forwards beat him off the dribble easily because his lateral movement isn't great. He does a decent job on the boards and doesn't foul, but he needs to be paired with a big, tough center to hide his shortcomings.
Well, Howard is a “Big, Tough Center”, but this scouting report was written in 09/10. By the time this hypothetical matchup happens, Jamison will be just about 35 years old coming off his worst season in years. Ersan Ilyasova however will be 25 years old, after a full season to adjust to the grind of an NBA season, as well as 2 full seasons under his belt with the NBA 3 (as opposed to the FIBA 3). Ilyasova should make a pretty significant jump next season in terms of talent, but Jamison should plummet considerably, especially since he’ll have to play major minutes with 2 rookies behind him. If Jamison were 31 or 32 he could probably handle the 34-36 minutes per game that Phoenix will ask of him, but at age 35 he’s already showing a breakdown. Jamison’s already defensively deficient game should really start to crack by the time he matches up against Chicago.
Ilyasova should also have no problem guarding his fellow countryman Hedo Turkoglu. Ersan has the height and length to both Turkoglu, while his hyperactive motor should really get under Turkoglu’s skin with his pesky defense. These guys have been playing on the same team for years now, so Ersan should pretty much know Turkoglu’s game as well as his own.
Mike Miller is a better shooter than Wes Matthews, he has a significant size advantage, and Matthews game is not predicated on running Miller all over the floor like a Ray Allen or Rip Hamilton. Miller should be better at limiting Matthews than Matthews is at limiting Miller, and because of his size Miller should be able to get his shot off whenever he wants on Matthews.
As far as the bench goes, Tony Allen will guard John Salmons then Wes Matthews, in that order of priority. He’ll also guard Baron Davis when Eric Maynor is in the game. Louis Amundson can guard anyone Phoenix will put at the 4, from Antawn Jamison to Ed Davis and his gimpy knee to Hedo Turkoglu.
Part III: Enter the LeBron. The theory with Dwight Howard is that just by him being on your team, your defense improves. One would logically think that LeBron, facing a Dwight Howard team, would suffer a pretty large decrease in production.
Let me throw some numbers at you.
Here is a graph showing how LeBron James and Dwight Howard have performed when facing each other since 2007 (when both players were simultaneously dominant).
Here is a
direct link.
Basically what it is saying is that Howard does not affect James’s production at all. James’s scoring stayed basically the same, with less than 10% change in any particular element (FG%, 3pt%, FT%, FGA’s, etc…). James’s rebounding actually goes up to 9 per contest, which is a 17% increase, and his 3pt % had a nice little jump too.
Howard’s “bump” should become even less significant with a poor help defender like Antawn Jamison playing next to him. One thing you could say about Rashard Lewis is that he’s an overpaid, overrated, stupid hair-cut having, glorified role player. Another thing you could say that would be substantially less subjective is that Rashard Lewis is a fantastic pick and roll defender. A lot of Orlando’s defensive success was because if/when people got into the paint to see Dwight Howard, they weren’t coming with a full head of steam because guys like Rashard Lewis (or even Marcin Gortat) are very disciplined and able defenders with great lateral movement for 4’s or 5’s. Jamison doesn’t offer that for Phoenix, and neither does Turkoglu.
LeBron James being allowed to produce despite Howard opens up all sorts of opportunities for Chicago. One, Howard will always have to cheat to LeBron’s side of the court. Two, whoever is near LeBron will need to be aware of what LeBron is doing.
This will create shots for Mike Miller, Brandon Jennings, and Ersan Ilyasova on the perimeter, this will create layup opportunities for Joakim Noah (who scored well on the same opportunities when Derrick Rose was the one getting to the rack on Howard) and Ersan Ilyasova, and it will force Howard to take more risks defending LeBron, which could result in more fouls called on Howard, forcing him to play more conservatively.
In the end I will use the same exact strategy I used on Milwaukee last round. Pick and roll Jennings, who should have no problem getting past Baron Davis. Pick and roll LeBron, who should have no problem getting past mediocre defenders Salmons or Turkoglu.
The main difference is that last series I was attacking the basket. Now, I will be attacking Dwight Howard. In forcing Dwight Howard to play more aggressively, I will get Howard in foul trouble and/or create opportunities for my other players when Phoenix’s sub-par supporting cast attempts to help.
This series would be a lot of fun to watch. For Chicago.
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