Below is a list of all second-round picks in the 21st century who made one or more appearance in an NBA all-star game (* denotes at least one all-NBA selection; ** is Jokic; *** gives props to Brogdon for being the only second-rounder to win ROTY in over 50 years).
Out of over 600 picks during the time period, there are only 14 players who were selected to at least one all-star game, so roughly 2%.
If you limit the period to 2009-2017, since it’s premature to rule-out a second-rounder since 2018 eventually making an all-star game, it’s only 4 of 270 or roughly 1.5% (2008-2017, a complete ten year period, is 6 of 300, so exactly 2%).
In a few years, we’ll be able to re-run the numbers and see if the drafting was much better from 2010-2019 than it was 2000-2009 (e.g., future all-stars should be identified and drafted in the first round, not slip into the second).
Of the 14, only three of them were selected all-NBA first team at least once and all three are centers (Marc Gasol, DeAndre Jordan and Jokic). So 3 out of over 600 picks is about 0.5%. All three were selected all-NBA more than once, with the only other player to achieve that being Draymond Green (never made all-NBA 1st team, though).
I will leave it to someone else to summarize by year which second-rounders started more than 82 games in their career (and/or played more than 10,000 minutes in their career), but until then it seems safe to say that there’s no data contradicting the theory that you have to be extremely lucky for that second-round pick to have good value (particularly outside the top 50 picks).
Other thoughts, comments or ideas for future draft analysis?
2000
43: Michael Redd *
2001
31: Gilbert Arenas *
38: Mehmet Okur
2002
35: Carlos Boozer *
2003
47: Mo Williams
51: Kyle Korver
2004-2005
None
2006
47: Paul Milsap
2007
48: Marc Gasol *
2008
35: DeAndre Jordan *
45: Goran Dragic *
2009-2010
None
2011
60: IT *
2012
35: Dray *
39: Khris
2013
None
2014
41: Jokic **
2015
None
2016
36: Brogdon ***
2017
None
2018-2022 ****
None at this time
Footnotes:
* - Also at least one all-NBA selection
** - MVP, NBA 75er, Future HOFer
*** - Not yet an all-star, but rookie of the year in 2016-2017 and potential future all-star
**** - Too early to project whether these classes will have a future all-star (e.g., Jalen Brunson was 33rd in 2018)