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Re-sign him at a price over $14 mill. He does a lot for the team
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117 (85.4%)

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Author Topic: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged - finalizing 4 year deal]  (Read 123428 times)

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Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #705 on: July 10, 2018, 08:22:13 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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The top two 2 man units offensively last season that played at least 200 minutes together were...

                    Off. Rat.     Minutes
Irving/Smart    111.0         861
Horford/Smart  110.7         903


The top four 3 man units offensively that played at least 200 minutes were...

                                Off. Rat.     minutes
Horford/Morris/Smart   116.6         220
Irving/Morris/Smart     116.0         223
Brown/Horford/Smart   113.8         514
Brown/Irving/Smart     113.2         505

Eight of the top nine 4 man units that played at least 100 minutes also contain Smart's name...

If Marcus Smart sucks so bad offensively why does his name appear in all of the most successful lineups???  Why do the C's 2 best offensive players (Irving and Horford) have the most success offensively when on the floor with Smart???  Maybe just maybe some of you might be missing something?

Yea, people forget that Smart's actually good in a way that's additive with the team's best players. Smart playing out the season on the QO isn't Boston "winning" the negotiation, it's both sides losing.
In 2017 season Smart/Isaiah put up an amazing 114.5 offensive rating in 1320 minutes.  Thomas/Horford/Smart 117.4 in 727 minutes. 

When surrounded by solid offensive weapons Smart has always prospered.  The problem is when you put him on the floor with a couple garbage weapons he and the team then begin to struggle mightily to score. 
He is then forced into a much to large of a role.  That shouldn't be a problem going forward with Hayward, Horford, Irving, Tatum, Brown and possibly Morris, Wanamaker etc..  Even Baynes might not be a drag on the offense anymore if the C's can park him in the corner and bang down 3 balls.
This kind of tells me that Smart is making no difference whatsoever, offensively.

When with good offensive players his off. ratings are good but when with bad offensive pkayers his off. rating is bad.

Where do you see the evidence for that?
There is none, he is misreading the data.  When you have 3 or 4 good offensive players on the floor the team is better when Smart is also part of the 5 man unit rather than a different player.
You said it not me.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #706 on: July 10, 2018, 08:23:23 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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The top two 2 man units offensively last season that played at least 200 minutes together were...

                    Off. Rat.     Minutes
Irving/Smart    111.0         861
Horford/Smart  110.7         903


The top four 3 man units offensively that played at least 200 minutes were...

                                Off. Rat.     minutes
Horford/Morris/Smart   116.6         220
Irving/Morris/Smart     116.0         223
Brown/Horford/Smart   113.8         514
Brown/Irving/Smart     113.2         505

Eight of the top nine 4 man units that played at least 100 minutes also contain Smart's name...

If Marcus Smart sucks so bad offensively why does his name appear in all of the most successful lineups???  Why do the C's 2 best offensive players (Irving and Horford) have the most success offensively when on the floor with Smart???  Maybe just maybe some of you might be missing something?

Yea, people forget that Smart's actually good in a way that's additive with the team's best players. Smart playing out the season on the QO isn't Boston "winning" the negotiation, it's both sides losing.
In 2017 season Smart/Isaiah put up an amazing 114.5 offensive rating in 1320 minutes.  Thomas/Horford/Smart 117.4 in 727 minutes. 

When surrounded by solid offensive weapons Smart has always prospered.  The problem is when you put him on the floor with a couple garbage weapons he and the team then begin to struggle mightily to score. 
He is then forced into a much to large of a role.  That shouldn't be a problem going forward with Hayward, Horford, Irving, Tatum, Brown and possibly Morris, Wanamaker etc..  Even Baynes might not be a drag on the offense anymore if the C's can park him in the corner and bang down 3 balls.
This kind of tells me that Smart is making no difference whatsoever, offensively.

When with good offensive players his off. ratings are good but when with bad offensive pkayers his off. rating is bad.

Where do you see the evidence for that?
There is none, he is misreading the data.  When you have 3 or 4 good offensive players on the floor the team is better when Smart is also part of the 5 man unit rather than a different player.

Makes sense. He spaces the floor by shooting aggressively. He creates additional offensive possessions through defensive plays and offensive rebounds. He creates fast break opportunities. He can make plays on the ball.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #707 on: July 10, 2018, 08:24:23 PM »

Offline feckless

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The top two 2 man units offensively last season that played at least 200 minutes together were...

                    Off. Rat.     Minutes
Irving/Smart    111.0         861
Horford/Smart  110.7         903


The top four 3 man units offensively that played at least 200 minutes were...

                                Off. Rat.     minutes
Horford/Morris/Smart   116.6         220
Irving/Morris/Smart     116.0         223
Brown/Horford/Smart   113.8         514
Brown/Irving/Smart     113.2         505

Eight of the top nine 4 man units that played at least 100 minutes also contain Smart's name...

If Marcus Smart sucks so bad offensively why does his name appear in all of the most successful lineups???  Why do the C's 2 best offensive players (Irving and Horford) have the most success offensively when on the floor with Smart???  Maybe just maybe some of you might be missing something?

So when Marcus goes 1 - 10 fg and 0 - 4 from the 3 it's a good thing?

Does it help this statistic when he has 5 or 6 turnovers?
Days up and down they come, like rain on a conga drum, forget most, remember some, don't turn none away.   Townes Van Zandt

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #708 on: July 10, 2018, 08:31:21 PM »

Online knuckleballer

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The top two 2 man units offensively last season that played at least 200 minutes together were...

                    Off. Rat.     Minutes
Irving/Smart    111.0         861
Horford/Smart  110.7         903


The top four 3 man units offensively that played at least 200 minutes were...

                                Off. Rat.     minutes
Horford/Morris/Smart   116.6         220
Irving/Morris/Smart     116.0         223
Brown/Horford/Smart   113.8         514
Brown/Irving/Smart     113.2         505

Eight of the top nine 4 man units that played at least 100 minutes also contain Smart's name...

If Marcus Smart sucks so bad offensively why does his name appear in all of the most successful lineups???  Why do the C's 2 best offensive players (Irving and Horford) have the most success offensively when on the floor with Smart???  Maybe just maybe some of you might be missing something?

Yea, people forget that Smart's actually good in a way that's additive with the team's best players. Smart playing out the season on the QO isn't Boston "winning" the negotiation, it's both sides losing.
In 2017 season Smart/Isaiah put up an amazing 114.5 offensive rating in 1320 minutes.  Thomas/Horford/Smart 117.4 in 727 minutes. 

When surrounded by solid offensive weapons Smart has always prospered.  The problem is when you put him on the floor with a couple garbage weapons he and the team then begin to struggle mightily to score. 
He is then forced into a much to large of a role.  That shouldn't be a problem going forward with Hayward, Horford, Irving, Tatum, Brown and possibly Morris, Wanamaker etc..  Even Baynes might not be a drag on the offense anymore if the C's can park him in the corner and bang down 3 balls.
This kind of tells me that Smart is making no difference whatsoever, offensively.

When with good offensive players his off. ratings are good but when with bad offensive pkayers his off. rating is bad.

Where do you see the evidence for that?
There is none, he is misreading the data.  When you have 3 or 4 good offensive players on the floor the team is better when Smart is also part of the 5 man unit rather than a different player.
You said it not me.

He may play poorly when surrounded by bad offensive players, but fortunately he's playing with Irving, Hayward, Tatum, Horford, and Brown.  That's why he didn't make sense for the Kings, but is valuable for the Celtics.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #709 on: July 10, 2018, 08:35:26 PM »

Offline bogg

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You said it not me.

No, you're the one who said it, because the data doesn't mean what you think it means.

Makes sense. He spaces the floor by shooting aggressively. He creates additional offensive possessions through defensive plays and offensive rebounds. He creates fast break opportunities. He can make plays on the ball.


Generally speaking, Marcus' strengths play to the kind of things that guys like Irving, Hayward, and (near future) Tatum need out of their teammates. Smart taking on the most difficult defensive assignments allows them to save energy for offense and Smart acting as a primary initiator and talented passer allows them to focus on getting the ball in their most effective spots/situations. Sure, it'd be better if he were a better shooter, but his skills mesh well in lineups with star-level scorers.


Conversely, one of the better things that Rozier does is his ability to create off the dribble and score the ball. The problem is that if he's sharing the court with Kyrie, Hayward, and Tatum you don't actually want Terry trying to be a primary scorer, and he's more of a defensive liability on the other end (not that he's bad, just that Smart's outstanding). It makes Rozier a better option for trying to carry a lineup of bench palyers and defensive specialists, but Smart's a better option for trying to hang with Golden State's starters.


So when Marcus goes 1 - 10 fg and 0 - 4 from the 3 it's a good thing?

Does it help this statistic when he has 5 or 6 turnovers?


"The best Celtics lineups generally feature Smart" isn't really a complicated idea to grasp. It may not make certain people happy, but it's facts.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #710 on: July 10, 2018, 08:41:03 PM »

Online byennie

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The top two 2 man units offensively last season that played at least 200 minutes together were...

                    Off. Rat.     Minutes
Irving/Smart    111.0         861
Horford/Smart  110.7         903


The top four 3 man units offensively that played at least 200 minutes were...

                                Off. Rat.     minutes
Horford/Morris/Smart   116.6         220
Irving/Morris/Smart     116.0         223
Brown/Horford/Smart   113.8         514
Brown/Irving/Smart     113.2         505

Eight of the top nine 4 man units that played at least 100 minutes also contain Smart's name...

If Marcus Smart sucks so bad offensively why does his name appear in all of the most successful lineups???  Why do the C's 2 best offensive players (Irving and Horford) have the most success offensively when on the floor with Smart???  Maybe just maybe some of you might be missing something?

So when Marcus goes 1 - 10 fg and 0 - 4 from the 3 it's a good thing?

Does it help this statistic when he has 5 or 6 turnovers?
Well obviously he doesn't average any of that so I'm not sure what your point is. Irving can go 5-20 with 5 turnovers on a bad night, too.

The point is that Marcus can shoot 37% and all of his other skills still make your team better offensively when paired with the right guys. It could be that his defense turns into offensive opportunities, that he's a good passer, that he does stretch the floor, that he's an extra ball handler, that he makes other guys play hard/ leadership, etc, etc.


Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #711 on: July 10, 2018, 08:56:05 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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You said it not me.


Here is what Oracle said:

"When surrounded by solid offensive weapons Smart has always prospered.  The problem is when you put him on the floor with a couple garbage weapons he and the team then begin to struggle mightily to score."

So yeah, he basically said when Smart plays with good offensive players his offensive rating is good and when he plays with bad offensive players his numbers are bad. So what does that tell you about Smart?

I haven't looked at the stats. I haven't verified any of the numbers Oracle posted. Just going off what he said. And I can't  help but question the actual use of 2 or 3 man offensive rating numbers if they are showing Smart having an offensive rating that much higher than his yearly 5 man unit offensive rating of 97. If Smart is so good as to have all these team leading 2 and 3 man offensive units, what the hell is he doing the rest of the time to have a yearly offensive rating of 97?

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #712 on: July 10, 2018, 08:59:36 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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The top two 2 man units offensively last season that played at least 200 minutes together were...

                    Off. Rat.     Minutes
Irving/Smart    111.0         861
Horford/Smart  110.7         903


The top four 3 man units offensively that played at least 200 minutes were...

                                Off. Rat.     minutes
Horford/Morris/Smart   116.6         220
Irving/Morris/Smart     116.0         223
Brown/Horford/Smart   113.8         514
Brown/Irving/Smart     113.2         505

Eight of the top nine 4 man units that played at least 100 minutes also contain Smart's name...

If Marcus Smart sucks so bad offensively why does his name appear in all of the most successful lineups???  Why do the C's 2 best offensive players (Irving and Horford) have the most success offensively when on the floor with Smart???  Maybe just maybe some of you might be missing something?

So when Marcus goes 1 - 10 fg and 0 - 4 from the 3 it's a good thing?

Does it help this statistic when he has 5 or 6 turnovers?
The Celtics in the playoffs this year turned the ball over the least of any regular rotation player when Smart was on the floor (10.8%).  The C's turned the ball over 13.3% of the time when he was not on the floor.  In the regular season the C's turned the ball over 13.9% of the time when Smart was on the floor and 14.4% when he wasn't on the floor.  When paired with better players Smart is very good with ball safety, it is when he is forced to create more when on the floor with lesser quality players that things go wrong.

Smart's shooting splits show much better the more talent that is on the floor.  During the regular season with Horford on the floor Smart had a TS% (true shooting) of 53.8%, when Horford was not on the floor Smart had a TS% of 42.6%.  The same was true in the playoffs but the numbers weren't as good.

The Celtics will have a lineup next year that will contain tons of solid offensive options, almost the entire regular rotation is somewhere between average and elite.  Smart should thrive as long as he isn't being cast in to large a role and put on the floor with the end of the bench.  In prior years the C's quality offensive options were few and far between.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #713 on: July 10, 2018, 09:08:55 PM »

Offline bogg

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Here is what Oracle said:

"When surrounded by solid offensive weapons Smart has always prospered.  The problem is when you put him on the floor with a couple garbage weapons he and the team then begin to struggle mightily to score."

So yeah, he basically said when Smart plays with good offensive players his offensive rating is good and when he plays with bad offensive players his numbers are bad. So what does that tell you about Smart?

I haven't looked at the stats. I haven't verified any of the numbers Oracle posted. Just going off what he said. And I can't  help but question the actual use of 2 or 3 man offensive rating numbers if they are showing Smart having an offensive rating that much higher than his yearly 5 man unit offensive rating of 97. If Smart is so good as to have all these team leading 2 and 3 man offensive units, what the hell is he doing the rest of the time to have a yearly offensive rating of 97?

I can tell you haven't looked at any stats or verified anything. Smart's ORTG last season was 105.9, not 97, and was higher than the team's overall average ORTG of 105.2. His DRTG was 99.4 compared to the team's DRTG of 101.5 (lower is better for this stat). The team was both better at scoring the ball and preventing the other team from scoring the ball when Smart was on the court relative to when he was off.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #714 on: July 10, 2018, 09:14:32 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Per basketball reference...offensive rating 97

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #715 on: July 10, 2018, 09:26:08 PM »

Offline bogg

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Per basketball reference...offensive rating 97

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

Take it up with NBA Stats.

http://stats.nba.com/team/1610612738/players-advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

EDIT:

Building off this, BBRef's "ORtg" doesn't appear to be a statistic based on actual lineup performance, but a calculation based on the player's individual statisitcs, kind of like PER or other similar attempts at producing an all-encompassing metric:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

NBA Stats OFFRTG (I suppose this is my fault, calling OFFRTG ORTG) is an actual measurement of how the team did while the player was on the floor using the tracking data the NBA has at its disposal.

http://stats.nba.com/help/glossary/#offrtg


This is actually a pretty neat proof of the idea that Marcus does stuff that doesn't show up in the box score, but affects winning nonetheless. Despite an individual stat line that suggests otherwise, the team is better-served on offense when Smart's out there.
« Last Edit: July 10, 2018, 09:37:22 PM by bogg »

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #716 on: July 10, 2018, 09:59:11 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Per basketball reference...offensive rating 97

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

Take it up with NBA Stats.

http://stats.nba.com/team/1610612738/players-advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

EDIT:

Building off this, BBRef's "ORtg" doesn't appear to be a statistic based on actual lineup performance, but a calculation based on the player's individual statisitcs, kind of like PER or other similar attempts at producing an all-encompassing metric:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

NBA Stats OFFRTG (I suppose this is my fault, calling OFFRTG ORTG) is an actual measurement of how the team did while the player was on the floor using the tracking data the NBA has at its disposal.

http://stats.nba.com/help/glossary/#offrtg


This is actually a pretty neat proof of the idea that Marcus does stuff that doesn't show up in the box score, but affects winning nonetheless. Despite an individual stat line that suggests otherwise, the team is better-served on offense when Smart's out there.
Had no idea bbr calculated their per 100 possession ratings that way.

Wonder how 82games.com figures out their offensive ratings as they have Smart in the 109 area.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #717 on: July 10, 2018, 10:06:39 PM »

Offline bogg

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Per basketball reference...offensive rating 97

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

Take it up with NBA Stats.

http://stats.nba.com/team/1610612738/players-advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

EDIT:

Building off this, BBRef's "ORtg" doesn't appear to be a statistic based on actual lineup performance, but a calculation based on the player's individual statisitcs, kind of like PER or other similar attempts at producing an all-encompassing metric:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

NBA Stats OFFRTG (I suppose this is my fault, calling OFFRTG ORTG) is an actual measurement of how the team did while the player was on the floor using the tracking data the NBA has at its disposal.

http://stats.nba.com/help/glossary/#offrtg


This is actually a pretty neat proof of the idea that Marcus does stuff that doesn't show up in the box score, but affects winning nonetheless. Despite an individual stat line that suggests otherwise, the team is better-served on offense when Smart's out there.
Had no idea bbr calculated their per 100 possession ratings that way.

Wonder how 82games.com figures out their offensive ratings as they have Smart in the 109 area.

Yea, I wasn't aware that those were two entirely different stats either until just now. Got confused about the wildly different numbers on the two pages and did a little digging. Surprised me.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #718 on: July 11, 2018, 04:48:34 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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Per basketball reference...offensive rating 97

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/smartma01.html

Take it up with NBA Stats.

http://stats.nba.com/team/1610612738/players-advanced/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&sort=OFF_RATING&dir=-1

EDIT:

Building off this, BBRef's "ORtg" doesn't appear to be a statistic based on actual lineup performance, but a calculation based on the player's individual statisitcs, kind of like PER or other similar attempts at producing an all-encompassing metric:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

NBA Stats OFFRTG (I suppose this is my fault, calling OFFRTG ORTG) is an actual measurement of how the team did while the player was on the floor using the tracking data the NBA has at its disposal.

http://stats.nba.com/help/glossary/#offrtg


This is actually a pretty neat proof of the idea that Marcus does stuff that doesn't show up in the box score, but affects winning nonetheless. Despite an individual stat line that suggests otherwise, the team is better-served on offense when Smart's out there.
Had no idea bbr calculated their per 100 possession ratings that way.

Wonder how 82games.com figures out their offensive ratings as they have Smart in the 109 area.

Yea, I wasn't aware that those were two entirely different stats either until just now. Got confused about the wildly different numbers on the two pages and did a little digging. Surprised me.
Over the last few years I have made multiple posts in regard to the numerous fraudulent metrics that can be found on BBREF.  They are all trash and tend to ruin good basketball discussion as everyone has a different pet metric to quote.  It is impossible to write a comprehensive formula that remotely accurately captures a players true value using box score statistics, there is simply far more to the game than that.  Not to mention that the logic used to construct the formulas behind these metrics has a million holes in it.

As to the Offensive Rating metric specifically found on BBREF, it is a metric that is designed to try and capture a players individual value using his own box score statistics.  The results are laughable unless you agree with the notion that unskilled big men that score on lobs, junk buckets and offensive rebounds are among the best offensive players in the league.

Re: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged topics]
« Reply #719 on: July 11, 2018, 06:29:58 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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I mean, if you could get DeAndre Jordan dunk every possession, or a putback, you're doing well.

Or alternatively a 3, simply because it's 1 more than 2.

That's practically the Rockets, right? They were a Chris Paul injury away from the Warriors, too.