Tatum and his contribution

[Androslav]

While I am happy that Jayson made improvements in his 3pt shooting this year, I am concerned with his efficiency, especially his ability to score easy buckets or enabling his teammates those. That is something that adorns great offensive players.

Tatums Stats:
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628369/

Roughly, he needs 20 shooting possessions to score 20 points and that is way below premier offensive players in the league. Kemba scores 4 pts more on similar usage and playing time. JB scores more on fewer shots, Hayward has 14% higher true shooting. Smart is more efficient, even after 2/16 shooting night.

Particularly, he is poor at finishing at the rim, and getting to the line more consistently. While his length is good, he doesn't have a great explosion nor bulk to burst by defenders and create decisive separation. That leaves him to be a more of a finesse/skill player inside the arc. I haven't seen that much improvement in this department since he came here.

I don't think that he is no shape or form done with his development, and I think that due to our overall number of scoring threats will eventually leave him to have a mismatch in the playoffs. He could use that opportunity to our benefit, but I would much rather anticipate that if I could see him regularly create and score the easy ones.

What's your overall take in the replaceability of his skill set on our team and where do you rank his contributions (this year) as of today.

[iadera]

I would say his decision making is still incorrect too often. He choses tough shots a lot while his shooting pcercentage is still not on that level.

[Rosco917]

Jayson is a black hole. Once the ball is in his hands it's a for gone conclusion that he is putting a shot up. When he does actually give up the ball it's only to recalibrate his positioning to again receive the ball to seek another shot. If anyone misses Gordon is Jayson Tatum. Hayward being a much more well rounded basketball player than Jayson puts him in better position to go one on one. 

It's the reason why he routinely doubled and triple teamed, the opposing teams know his ability to pass or dribble out of pressure is suspect.   

[Moranis]

Tatum's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +28.1.  That is absolutely astronomically, especially 12 games in.  For comparison, Lebron at his absolute peak (08/09 in Cleveland), was at +21.2.  Theis has the next best on/off per 100 on the team at a much lower +13.4.  Tatum and Theis are also around +16 (per 100 possessions) on the season, with Brown and Walker nearly 8 points lower each at +8.7. 

Tatum's value is insane where it matters most.  And it is that way because there are no credible back-up PF's on the team.  Thus, he might not be the best player on the team (that is still Walker), but Tatum is the most important player on the team.  We lose Tatum for an extended period of time and the team is in real trouble.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I'm encouraged by Tatum's aggressiveness. That was the big concern I had about him. Not efficiency. Not feel. Not passing. I was worried he would never be more than a premium Otto Porter--a good player that can help you win games, but not a high level wing.

I was always frustrated that Wiggins and Ingram got a chance to shoot 20 shots a game, refine their moves, and get comfortable with their skills. I think Tatum is a much better offensive talent than they are, but he needed reps to get there.

These are his reps. He's getting comfortable while we are still winning games (something that couldn't be said about other young wings like Wiggins or Ingram). This team's success relies on the development of Brown and Tatum as all-around players.

He's doing the right things, but he still needs to figure out the feel of getting fouled going to the rim. He will.

[RazzelnoDazzel]

While I am happy that Jayson made improvements in his 3pt shooting this year, I am concerned with his efficiency, especially his ability to score easy buckets or enabling his teammates those. That is something that adorns great offensive players.

Tatums Stats:
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628369/

Roughly, he needs 20 shooting possessions to score 20 points and that is way below premier offensive players in the league. Kemba scores 4 pts more on similar usage and playing time. JB scores more on fewer shots, Hayward has 14% higher true shooting. Smart is more efficient, even after 2/16 shooting night.

Particularly, he is poor at finishing at the rim, and getting to the line more consistently. While his length is good, he doesn't have a great explosion nor bulk to burst by defenders and create decisive separation. That leaves him to be a more of a finesse/skill player inside the arc. I haven't seen that much improvement in this department since he came here.

I don't think that he is no shape or form done with his development, and I think that due to our overall number of scoring threats will eventually leave him to have a mismatch in the playoffs. He could use that opportunity to our benefit, but I would much rather anticipate that if I could see him regularly create and score the easy ones.

What's your overall take in the replaceability of his skill set on our team and where do you rank his contributions (this year) as of today.

I agree in the since of he isn’t anywhere close to being a developed star in this league. He is insanely overrated in my book and I have been saying this. I really think he being pushed to be this “scorer” that he just isn’t. There is nothing wrong with being a spot up catch and shoot player, and I think this is where he is best. At one point I saw him as a Carmelo type, but he isn’t hitting the 2 pointers to even become that.

People get on him about his shot selection, but he misses even at the rim and there is no easier shot than one that is taken at the rim.... he’s just not “that guy”. Stars don’t blow as many layups as he does. Stars can get into unstoppable rhythms that can change games (like Buddy Hield caught against us). Idc about a +/- he just isn’t scoring well and he is known as a scorer so 🤷🏽‍♂️   

[ETNCeltics]

While I am happy that Jayson made improvements in his 3pt shooting this year, I am concerned with his efficiency, especially his ability to score easy buckets or enabling his teammates those. That is something that adorns great offensive players.

Tatums Stats:
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628369/

Roughly, he needs 20 shooting possessions to score 20 points and that is way below premier offensive players in the league. Kemba scores 4 pts more on similar usage and playing time. JB scores more on fewer shots, Hayward has 14% higher true shooting. Smart is more efficient, even after 2/16 shooting night.

Particularly, he is poor at finishing at the rim, and getting to the line more consistently. While his length is good, he doesn't have a great explosion nor bulk to burst by defenders and create decisive separation. That leaves him to be a more of a finesse/skill player inside the arc. I haven't seen that much improvement in this department since he came here.

I don't think that he is no shape or form done with his development, and I think that due to our overall number of scoring threats will eventually leave him to have a mismatch in the playoffs. He could use that opportunity to our benefit, but I would much rather anticipate that if I could see him regularly create and score the easy ones.

What's your overall take in the replaceability of his skill set on our team and where do you rank his contributions (this year) as of today.

I agree in the since of he isn’t anywhere close to being a developed star in this league. He is insanely overrated in my book and I have been saying this. I really think he being pushed to be this “scorer” that he just isn’t. There is nothing wrong with being a spot up catch and shoot player, and I think this is where he is best. At one point I saw him as a Carmelo type, but he isn’t hitting the 2 pointers to even become that.

People get on him about his shot selection, but he misses even at the rim and there is no easier shot than one that is taken at the rim.... he’s just not “that guy”. Stars don’t blow as many layups as he does. Stars can get into unstoppable rhythms that can change games (like Buddy Hield caught against us). Idc about a +/- he just isn’t scoring well and he is known as a scorer so 🤷🏽‍♂️

Buddy Hield is more than 5 years older than Tatum. At 21, he was a college sophomore. 

Talking about Tatum as though he's a finished product or reached his ceiling is a topic not worth visiting.

[CF033]

I'm not worried about Tatum in the slightest. IMO for whatever reason I think he lost an entire year last year developing his game incorrectly taking tons of contested inefficient shots. Could've been the extremely poor team chemistry we had last year, could've been a desire for him to be the next Kobe Bryant. I don't know.

I'm really encouraged by how he is playing this year. I personally believe that his decision making and finishing around the hoop is going to improve by leaps and bounds over the course of the year, he's putting in the work. I love that he is attacking the hoop. The sky is the limit.

[CF033]

While I am happy that Jayson made improvements in his 3pt shooting this year, I am concerned with his efficiency, especially his ability to score easy buckets or enabling his teammates those. That is something that adorns great offensive players.

Tatums Stats:
https://stats.nba.com/player/1628369/

Roughly, he needs 20 shooting possessions to score 20 points and that is way below premier offensive players in the league. Kemba scores 4 pts more on similar usage and playing time. JB scores more on fewer shots, Hayward has 14% higher true shooting. Smart is more efficient, even after 2/16 shooting night.

Particularly, he is poor at finishing at the rim, and getting to the line more consistently. While his length is good, he doesn't have a great explosion nor bulk to burst by defenders and create decisive separation. That leaves him to be a more of a finesse/skill player inside the arc. I haven't seen that much improvement in this department since he came here.

I don't think that he is no shape or form done with his development, and I think that due to our overall number of scoring threats will eventually leave him to have a mismatch in the playoffs. He could use that opportunity to our benefit, but I would much rather anticipate that if I could see him regularly create and score the easy ones.

What's your overall take in the replaceability of his skill set on our team and where do you rank his contributions (this year) as of today.

I agree in the since of he isn’t anywhere close to being a developed star in this league. He is insanely overrated in my book and I have been saying this. I really think he being pushed to be this “scorer” that he just isn’t. There is nothing wrong with being a spot up catch and shoot player, and I think this is where he is best. At one point I saw him as a Carmelo type, but he isn’t hitting the 2 pointers to even become that.

People get on him about his shot selection, but he misses even at the rim and there is no easier shot than one that is taken at the rim.... he’s just not “that guy”. Stars don’t blow as many layups as he does. Stars can get into unstoppable rhythms that can change games (like Buddy Hield caught against us). Idc about a +/- he just isn’t scoring well and he is known as a scorer so ‍♂️

Buddy Hield is more than 5 years older than Tatum. At 21, he was a college sophomore. 

Talking about Tatum as though he's a finished product or reached his ceiling is a topic not worth visiting.

Yep Hield has no doubt become a great shooter but he's turning 27 in under a month! He's well into his prime years. Tatum turns 22 in March. I don't think people are comprehending the amount of potential there.

[Somebody]

Tatum's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +28.1.  That is absolutely astronomically, especially 12 games in.  For comparison, Lebron at his absolute peak (08/09 in Cleveland), was at +21.2.  Theis has the next best on/off per 100 on the team at a much lower +13.4.  Tatum and Theis are also around +16 (per 100 possessions) on the season, with Brown and Walker nearly 8 points lower each at +8.7. 

Tatum's value is insane where it matters most.  And it is that way because there are no credible back-up PF's on the team. Thus, he might not be the best player on the team (that is still Walker), but Tatum is the most important player on the team.  We lose Tatum for an extended period of time and the team is in real trouble.

Again that's a testament to his situational value on the Celtics, not how good he is as a basketball player. On/Off doesn't account for the strength of the units he's mainly playing in, the strength of the opponents he's playing against, the nature of the game when he's on the court (blowout, tight game, etc.) and many other factors. Impact metrics that adjust for such factors such as RPM and APM are much better when it comes to gauging a player's value, and Tatum hasn't been setting the world on fire in this family of +/- stats from what I've seen (I took a look at his RPM on ESPN last season and they weren't anything special).

[Moranis]

Tatum's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +28.1.  That is absolutely astronomically, especially 12 games in.  For comparison, Lebron at his absolute peak (08/09 in Cleveland), was at +21.2.  Theis has the next best on/off per 100 on the team at a much lower +13.4.  Tatum and Theis are also around +16 (per 100 possessions) on the season, with Brown and Walker nearly 8 points lower each at +8.7. 

Tatum's value is insane where it matters most.  And it is that way because there are no credible back-up PF's on the team. Thus, he might not be the best player on the team (that is still Walker), but Tatum is the most important player on the team.  We lose Tatum for an extended period of time and the team is in real trouble.

Again that's a testament to his situational value on the Celtics, not how good he is as a basketball player. On/Off doesn't account for the strength of the units he's mainly playing in, the strength of the opponents he's playing against, the nature of the game when he's on the court (blowout, tight game, etc.) and many other factors. Impact metrics that adjust for such factors such as RPM and APM are much better when it comes to gauging a player's value, and Tatum hasn't been setting the world on fire in this family of +/- stats from what I've seen (I took a look at his RPM on ESPN last season and they weren't anything special).

You know what else wasn't special last year, his +- and on/off numbers (though like this year he had some of the higher ones on the team). 

It is not a coincidence that the best 5-man units for the Celtics this year, all have Tatum in the lineup.  That holds for 4-man, 3-man, and 2-man as well.  Tatum has been the one constant in Boston's most effective units all season long.  He is Boston's most valuable player in the only area that truly matters.

[Somebody]

Tatum's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +28.1.  That is absolutely astronomically, especially 12 games in.  For comparison, Lebron at his absolute peak (08/09 in Cleveland), was at +21.2.  Theis has the next best on/off per 100 on the team at a much lower +13.4.  Tatum and Theis are also around +16 (per 100 possessions) on the season, with Brown and Walker nearly 8 points lower each at +8.7. 

Tatum's value is insane where it matters most.  And it is that way because there are no credible back-up PF's on the team. Thus, he might not be the best player on the team (that is still Walker), but Tatum is the most important player on the team.  We lose Tatum for an extended period of time and the team is in real trouble.

Again that's a testament to his situational value on the Celtics, not how good he is as a basketball player. On/Off doesn't account for the strength of the units he's mainly playing in, the strength of the opponents he's playing against, the nature of the game when he's on the court (blowout, tight game, etc.) and many other factors. Impact metrics that adjust for such factors such as RPM and APM are much better when it comes to gauging a player's value, and Tatum hasn't been setting the world on fire in this family of +/- stats from what I've seen (I took a look at his RPM on ESPN last season and they weren't anything special).

You know what else wasn't special last year, his +- and on/off numbers (though like this year he had some of the higher ones on the team). 

It is not a coincidence that the best 5-man units for the Celtics this year, all have Tatum in the lineup.  That holds for 4-man, 3-man, and 2-man as well.  Tatum has been the one constant in Boston's most effective units all season long.  He is Boston's most valuable player in the only area that truly matters.

Situational value, situational value. His numbers in the plus minus family last year weren't anything special because he wasn't as situationally valuable due to the presence of Morris (who had a negative RPM, so when you combine that with the eye test you can see that he isn't anything special) to provide more viable rotational options at PF. Tatum's situational value to the Celtics doesn't make him a special cookie when you look at him as a player, it only means that the Celtics' big forward rotation is utter garbage.

[GreenCoffeeBean]

Jayson is a black hole. Once the ball is in his hands it's a for gone conclusion that he is putting a shot up. When he does actually give up the ball it's only to recalibrate his positioning to again receive the ball to seek another shot. If anyone misses Gordon is Jayson Tatum. Hayward being a much more well rounded basketball player than Jayson puts him in better position to go one on one. 

It's the reason why he routinely doubled and triple teamed, the opposing teams know his ability to pass or dribble out of pressure is suspect.

TP for this important nugget in bold. Tatum still has at least 2 or 3 significant evolutions to go through as a player before he's a top player in the league. Right now, he's learning how to score a lot at the expense of being predictable and not creating for others. Now that he's deemed a legit threat, defenses are keying down on him.

The next 2 evolutions can come in either order but it boils down to learning how to create for others and score no matter what. Ideally, he first learns how to create for others when he's getting doubled or locked down. Learning how to be a scorer even though you're being given a ton of defensive attention every time you touch the ball.

An example of someone who learned in the order of score-no-matter-what and create-for-others is KD. An example of the reverse is Kawhi.

[keevsnick]

Tatum's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +28.1.  That is absolutely astronomically, especially 12 games in.  For comparison, Lebron at his absolute peak (08/09 in Cleveland), was at +21.2.  Theis has the next best on/off per 100 on the team at a much lower +13.4.  Tatum and Theis are also around +16 (per 100 possessions) on the season, with Brown and Walker nearly 8 points lower each at +8.7. 

Tatum's value is insane where it matters most.  And it is that way because there are no credible back-up PF's on the team. Thus, he might not be the best player on the team (that is still Walker), but Tatum is the most important player on the team.  We lose Tatum for an extended period of time and the team is in real trouble.

Again that's a testament to his situational value on the Celtics, not how good he is as a basketball player. On/Off doesn't account for the strength of the units he's mainly playing in, the strength of the opponents he's playing against, the nature of the game when he's on the court (blowout, tight game, etc.) and many other factors. Impact metrics that adjust for such factors such as RPM and APM are much better when it comes to gauging a player's value, and Tatum hasn't been setting the world on fire in this family of +/- stats from what I've seen (I took a look at his RPM on ESPN last season and they weren't anything special).

You know what else wasn't special last year, his +- and on/off numbers (though like this year he had some of the higher ones on the team). 

It is not a coincidence that the best 5-man units for the Celtics this year, all have Tatum in the lineup.  That holds for 4-man, 3-man, and 2-man as well.  Tatum has been the one constant in Boston's most effective units all season long.  He is Boston's most valuable player in the only area that truly matters.

It MIGHT not be a coincidence, but it is certainly possible it is. The sample size on this plus minus is too small, to dependent on who he's playing with, too dependent on who he's playing, too dependent on too many other factors for us to draw any certainty from the numbers yet. I've seen to many games this season where he ends up +10 to 16 but actually played pretty bad for me to put too much stock in his plus minus.

Now all that being said I also dont think he's been as bad as his efficiency numbers would indicate. Some of that is just him missing shots that I think he will indeed make, shots that are within his current ability to make. So basically he's better than his peripheries indicate, but not s good as the plus minus indicates which for a 21.5 year old is good.

[Fafnir]

How is Smart slotted so low in the poll question?