We will be foregoing the MLE this year. People should not get their hopes up.
what makes you say that?
I think Marcus Smart will be deemed more important than any player signable via the MLE, and because we have to leave salary space to match an offer sheet, we will miss out on the MLE market (however, doing so will likely bring down Smart’s price to something that provides better value).
Don't see why we can't re-sign Smart and use the MLE as well.
payroll in 2018-19
1. Hayward $31,214,295
2. Horford $28,928,710
3. Kyrie $20,099,189
4. Smart (let's say) $11,000,000
5. Tatum $6,700,800
6. Morris $5,375,000
7. Brown $5,169,960
8. Rozier $3,050,389
9. Yabu $2,667,600
10. Semi $1,378,242
11. Theis $1,378,242
12. #27 pick $1,640,400
13. Non-Taxpayer MLE $8,568,000
14. minimum salary $1,499,698
15. minimum salary $1,499,698
Jackson $92,857
SUM $130,263,080
The tax line is projected at approximately $120.8 million.
$130,263,080 - $120,800,000 = $9,463,080 over the tax line
For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:
$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$7,500,000 + $7,810,390 = $15,310,390 in luxury tax
That's no big deal (especially since the C's will be contending for the championship next season).
So the question is:
Assuming we don't use the MLE, can we avoid the tax altogether in 2018-2019 (in order to postpone the repeater tax for 1 year)? It's possible, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. Basically, we 'd have to convince Smart to re-sign for ~MLE money (or trade Morris straight up for a pick?). I bet Smart can find better offers on the open market.
1. Hayward $31,214,295
2. Horford $28,928,710
3. Kyrie $20,099,189
4. Smart $8,600,000 (just a tad above the MLE)
5. Tatum $6,700,800
6. Morris $5,375,000
7. Brown $5,169,960
8. Rozier $3,050,389
9. Yabu $2,667,600
10. Semi $1,378,242
11. Theis $1,378,242
12. #27 pick $1,640,400
13. minimum salary $1,499,698
14. minimum salary $1,499,698
15. minimum salary $1,499,698
Jackson $92,857
SUM $120,794,778 < $120,800,000 (the tax line)
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As for the MLE candidates:
(imo)
best player on the list is Reke
best fit is Ellington/Redick (don't think Redick is gonna be availble for the MLE though)