Western Conference Semis: Blazers (2) Vs Jazz (3)

[CB Draft Voting]

Western Conference 2nd Round: Blazers (2) V Jazz (3)

Blazers Press Conference

Jazz Press Conference

GMs should post what their tactics would be, how they feel they'd match up, and how they'd handle their rotations. Note that HCA will be the tie-breaker if voting is tied at the end of Tuesday, August 2nd.

Once this round of the playoffs is over, I'll be merging this with the rest of the Western 1st Rd matchups

Note to GMs off playoff teams:
Quote
7. You may not vote for your own team, this is to prevent skewing of overall results by every game theory loving GM from voting themselves in first place.
This rule is a bit unclear it was meant for regular season voting, it doesn't matter in a head to head situation so feel free to list your own team as the winner. If a GM doesn't think his team will win (or fails to vote) boo to him!

Each GM team will still however only get a single vote however, I will count the first ballot I receive. Deadline for voting is 11:59 PM Wednesday.

[nickagneta]

LOL...Kane has posted his opinions on every other 2nd round matchup except his own.

Just busting 'em Kane.

[nickagneta]

I think this is the best series of the second round.

[Kane3387]

Lol it's not a coincidence.

[Kane3387]

Was hoping IP might get us started. 

[nickagneta]

Here's the problem with being a counter puncher...sometimes you get hit with the first punch so hard, you get knocked out.

[indeedproceed]

Ooooookay.....I've looked at all the probable matchups, I've wiped the sleep out of my eyes, and now I'm ready.

Anticipated series rotation:

PG: Lowry 38/Sessions 10
SG: Harden 38/Morrow 10
SF: Delfino (Pierce)/Williams (no Pierce)
PF: Stoudemire 32/Jerebko (Jefferson)/Williams (Garnett-No-Jefferson)
C: Bogut 38/Stoudemire 6/Tolliver (whatever is left)

Offense

Option 1: Attack Al Jefferson and Kevin Garnett.

This might seem counter-intuitive. Why would I go at Kevin Garnett in any fashion? Well, if that seems counter-intuitive, than you didn't watch game 1 of this years' Celtics-Knicks playoff series. You didn't watch Amar'e Stoudemire consistently destroy Kevin Garnett, en-route to a 28pts, 11 rebounds, 67% shooting rampage. The only thing that stopped the Knicks from winning that game was Carmelo Anthony needing shots.

But, Amar'e got hurt soon after, and limped through the rest of the series, which the Celtics mostly cruised on to win. They knew they could, because Amar'e wasn't there to expose Kevin Garnett anymore.

Garnett used to dominate Amare, in the same way that a big brother dominates his little brother that is almost 7 years younger. But, Amar'e isn't that little kid anymore, and he let KG know that this year in the playoffs. KG's impeccable footwork couldn't keep up, his incredible reach wasn't long enough, and his savvy basketball IQ was about as useful as a rolled up newspaper in a lions pen.

Likewise, Andrew Bogut has been pretty darn effective at scoring on Al Jefferson. In 11 matchups with both guys playing center, Bogut is shooting a healthy 60%+ from the field.

My plan is to use James Harden and Kyle Lowry in pick and roll situations to try to force Garnett off Stoudemire, giving Amar'e even more room to work. I will also used Harden and Bogut in a 2-man game, allowing Bogut the space he needs to abuse Al Jefferson.

My frontcourt just simply outclasses Utah's by a long-shot, between Amar'e ability to score on Kevin Garnett paired with Bogut's advantages on Jefferson on both defense and offense, everything I do has to originate there.

My second options are Amare isos in teh high-post, allowing him to put the ball on the floor to exploit KG's lack of lateral quickness, and Lowry's dribble-drive penetration on a woefully under-qualified Baron Davis to get inside to either score, or dish to Bogut or STAT, depending on which one gets an opportunity.

Defense:

Carlos Defino isn't much of an offensive power-house, but he's a very tough defender, and his one and only assignment this series is Paul Pierce. When Paul Pierce is in the game, so is Carlos Delfino.

Andrew Bogut will severely limit Al Jefferson on offense. In 11 matchups between the two players, Al Jefferson is averaging less than 44% shooting from the field, and has only had a successful outing in large minutes twice. Bogut will take away Al Jefferson's biggest advantage (being a low-post scorer), while also scoring on Big Al at a 60% success rate.

Kyle Lowry as a starter last season showed he's got the chops to bang on Baron Davis pretty good, holding Davis to 29% and 22% shooting in those matchups, respectively, as well as forcing Davis into 3 times as many turnovers as Lowry himself committed in more time played, as well as dishing out more assists than Davis and scoring more points.

James Harden should do very well on Caron Butler. Aside from the fact that Butler has become a bit of a lackluster defender, he's also out of position here, and playing against a guy in Harden who can use his quickness to blow-by Butler anytime he likes. This is going to put further stress on Kevin Garnett, and Al Jefferson, leading to more defensive breakdowns, and more easy buckets.

Derrick Williams will still play this series, but he'll be closer to the 18-20 minute range than he will the 30 minutes he played last season. I don't like him defensively for long stretches against Paul Pierce, especially if Amar'e SToudemire is in the game as well, because in order to keep my defensive advantage, I cannot allow more than one mismatch at a time. I still expect 12 or so points from Williams though, because against Butler, Jefferson, or Maxiell, Williams will have considerable size, strength, or quickness advantages, or all 3 in some cases.  

[dark_lord]

not a surprise to any1, but i have never been that high on portland.  my vote goes to utah in this series, although i think utah is a little overrated by some on here

[indeedproceed]

not a surprise to any1, but i have never been that high on portland.  my vote goes to utah in this series, although i think utah is a little overrated by some on here

You've never really gotten into why you're down on Portland. I'd love to hear why.

[Kane3387]

Ok so be it...  

The Jazz are going to be willing to do whatever it takes to win this series, and that means getting much more physical and nasty with the young Blazers. The Jazz will look to get inside their heads. KG will be talking more then ever along with Pierce and Baron. People no how rough and tough Butler and Haywood are. Utah will slow the pace of this series down with their defensive pressure and make this series a fight. A war.

Minute Rotation

PG) Davis 34 min, Crawford 14 min,
SG) Butler 8 min, Crawford 14 min, Thabo 26 min
SF) Pierce 38 min, Butler 10 min,
PF) Garnett 34 min, Jefferson 10 min, Maxiell 3 min
C) Jefferson 20 min, Haywood 28 min

Thabo is getting more minutes then the series before for his defense. He will be picking up full court to slow Lowry's ability to get the offense situated. His length should give Lowry issues. Whenever possibleBaron will then switch onto Lowry and Thabo onto Harden because I like Thabo guarding Harden when the 24 second clock is going down.

Thabo is also a good pick and roll defender and I think that the length of Garnett and Thabo can really slow down the Amare and Harden pick and roll. If and when Portland decides to play off Thabo, he is cutting straight to the basket and going up strong attacking the basket and trying to draw a foul at the very least.

Butler will be playing primarily as Pierce's back-up and his game is very similar to Pierce. We think he can play the Pierce role quite well as far as being aggressive offensively when he has the ball and not really having to guard Delfino off the dribble. He will complement Big Al and Crawford well when they are in together and Pierce and KG are out.

I am a firm believe that changing the starting line-ups in the post season is a mistake. So I am keeping Butler and Big Al in there, but if you look at the minutes rotation they will see more time then ever as back-ups. Especially Butler who will sub-out around the 8 minute mark of the 1st and 3rd qtrs.

Haywood will be seeing more time then normal because he more physical and nasty then Jefferson. He also is a better anchor to a defense. Jefferson will still be seeing time at the C position always when KG is at the PF. He will be asked as always to score on the block and rebound. Maxiell is getting some minutes for HARD FOULS. Send messages to guys like Harden, Bogut, and Delfino who try to go to the basket. No easy buckets for Amare either.

KG will always guard Amare when they are in together. His primary focus will be limiting their primary option on defense and being the Ray Lewis like defensive signal caller he has always been.

Baron's minutes stay the same and so do Crawford's at the PG. Baron will be looked to get his typical 7-8 Apg and get the ball to Kg in the high post and Pierce at the free throw line and top of the key. Baron will be asked to push the ball after stops and shoot about 12-13 shots per game consistent with his season averages. Crawford will be looked to always score and provide scoring help for Pierce and the others. I want Crawford being aggressive, especially with Harden on him.

Obviously Pierce is getting more minutes at 38 but that is because he will not be asked to play a lot of individual defense. We are going to Pierce as much as possible in this series, We believe no one can guard him. Pierce is our best player and he is the difference in this series. Portland has no answer for Pierce.

Also if games are too close and Amare has it going we will be doing a little Hack-a-Bogut.

[Kane3387]

This might seem counter-intuitive. Why would I go at Kevin Garnett in any fashion? Well, if that seems counter-intuitive, than you didn't watch game 1 of this years' Celtics-Knicks playoff series. You didn't watch Amar'e Stoudemire consistently destroy Kevin Garnett, en-route to a 28pts, 11 rebounds, 67% shooting rampage. The only thing that stopped the Knicks from winning that game was Carmelo Anthony needing shots.

But, Amar'e got hurt soon after, and limped through the rest of the series, which the Celtics mostly cruised on to win. They knew they could, because Amar'e wasn't there to expose Kevin Garnett anymore.

Garnett used to dominate Amare, in the same way that a big brother dominates his little brother that is almost 7 years younger. But, Amar'e isn't that little kid anymore, and he let KG know that this year in the playoffs. KG's impeccable footwork couldn't keep up, his incredible reach wasn't long enough, and his savvy basketball IQ was about as useful as a rolled up newspaper in a lions pen.

Not buying that, that much. If you are healthy enough to play then you are healthy. To say KG didn't impact Amare's offense is wrong. No defends Amare better and Amare got a lot of points on Big Baby also.

Kg denied Amare countless times in some of those cunch time posessions. NY wanted to get him the ball and couldn't. Thus they settled for poor threes or watching Melo.

Go at KG all you want. Amare will get his 25-30 points but this will be at the detriment to the team.

[Kane3387]

This season against Boston Amare averaged 24 points and 8.3 boards. I can live with that. One of those games Semih Erden started too..

Go down to Boston and look for yourself.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/1727/amare-stoudemire

[Kane3387]

This season against Boston Amare averaged 24 points and 8.3 boards. I can live with that. One of those games Semih Erden started too..

Go down to Boston and look for yourself.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/1727/amare-stoudemire

That's a point less then his season average.

[dark_lord]

not a surprise to any1, but i have never been that high on portland.  my vote goes to utah in this series, although i think utah is a little overrated by some on here

You've never really gotten into why you're down on Portland. I'd love to hear why.

in a nutshell.....i like amare, bogut, and harden.....however i think u are extremely weak at the point. i think ur bench is very thin as well. i think lopez is ok, and he is perhaps ur strongest bench player. i think portland's roster would hold up better in the east.  compared to other western teams, i just dont value them as much.  i certainly dont think they are a two seed, imo.

i saw ur post about loving ur team, and i assume (i can only assume since i have never tried being a gm in this) most people feel the same way about their team.  i think in this game people debate, use stats to make their case, and find faults in others team and attempt to exploit it, even if it is minuscule.  i think a lot of gm's debate and "play the game" and eventually begin to buy all their arguments, when they wouldn't if they werent involved.

i think being an outside, i have no emotions in teams and rosters and vote as such.  i can understand people's love for their team since it is evident people put a ton of time and energy into building their team.

just my 2 cents, since i was asked.  ip, ur debating skills are very good, i have to give it to u.  but like i said in a different thread, for me personally, it takes more than a good argument to get my vote.

[Fafnir]

This season against Boston Amare averaged 24 points and 8.3 boards. I can live with that. One of those games Semih Erden started too..

Go down to Boston and look for yourself.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/1727/amare-stoudemire

That's a point less then his season average.

Not only is that a small sample size but in the two games that played at the Knicks pace (97 poss for both teams) he had 27 and 39 points. In the third game it was played at the Celtics pace (87), he had 16. That's an average of 27, 2 PPG above his average. It also shows that pace is important for a player like Amar'e.

I excluded the last game of the year where he scored 14 points in his 20 minutes because he was pulled early and was playing against just the C's bench players. You should also exclude that game in your analysis, the playoffs were set it was all garbage time.

And in the game that he had 16 the Celtics were down double digits in the fourth quarter before coming alive to roast the Knicks in the fourth. I see no reason to doubt Amar'es ability to score on KG's defense based on his performances last year.