Western Conference Semis: Kings (1) Vs Warriors (5)

[action781]

These singular plays are great!  You're lucky that Jordan Crawford isn't on the Warriors though...   

Except the question you have to ask yourself, can Batum do as a good a job on Lebron as Marion did, because that sung the finals.  History has shown Batum can't.

You're right.  Marion's defense on Lebron was huge in the finals.  But before the finals, Marion had allowed Lebron to put up 29/7/7 in 17 games (a pretty significant sample as far as H2H).

So, is regular season defense indicative of postseason defense?  Shawn Marion would argue that it's not.  I guess that's why I'm not worried about Batum.

[ChampKind]

Hey, you can rely on youtube clips and small sample sizes if you want, or you can take a look at what happened in the Finals. If Lebron kept up his regular season dominance throughout the playoffs in his career, he'd have a ring by now.

[Kane3387]

I still don't see how this team scores enough on the kings to beat us.  Our backup PG has thoroughly outplayed the Warriors starting pointguard in their matchups and held him to a low percentage

Meanwhile we have plus defenders at the 2, 3 and 5 and a very good team defender at the 4.

Steph has never gotten to play off a guy like Dirk though. Look at how many open threes Kidd gets from playing with Dirk.

[Rondo2287]

These singular plays are great!  You're lucky that Jordan Crawford isn't on the Warriors though...   

Except the question you have to ask yourself, can Batum do as a good a job on Lebron as Marion did, because that sung the finals.  History has shown Batum can't.

You're right.  Marion's defense on Lebron was huge in the finals.  But before the finals, Marion had allowed Lebron to put up 29/7/7 in 17 games (a pretty significant sample as far as H2H).

So, is regular season defense indicative of postseason defense?  Shawn Marion would argue that it's not.  I guess that's why I'm not worried about Batum.

But in the games where marion was team with a stopper behind him like Chandler, he held Lebron to Shooting % in the 30's.  Most of those were when he was playing with phoenix which as we all know didnt play a defensive game.  

All im saying is that in recent history before the finals Marion gave lebron trouble.

so it does correlate to playoff performances

[Rondo2287]

Hey, you can rely on youtube clips and small sample sizes if you want, or you can take a look at what happened in the Finals. If Lebron kept up his regular season dominance throughout the playoffs in his career, he'd have a ring by now.

Say what you want but in the games that Lebron played against Marion when Marion had a defensive presence behind him guarding the basket (chandler) he held Lebron to shooting percentages of .263 and .353.

Not only do they not have a defensive stopper at the SF position, they do not have a guy like chandler to meet Lebron at the rim.  To say the results will be the same under different circumstances doesnt make sense to me

[Kane3387]

I still don't see how this team scores enough on the kings to beat us.  Our backup PG has thoroughly outplayed the Warriors starting pointguard in their matchups and held him to a low percentage

Meanwhile we have plus defenders at the 2, 3 and 5 and a very good team defender at the 4.

Rondo, you and nick have done a great job of convincing us to vote Kings.  In my head, I want to vote Kings.

But the problem is, my gut wants to say GS.  See, that was a great point you just brought up.  BUT, before the 2011 playoffs started, Miami had good defenders 2-5 also and a typical NBA fan would have asked how could Dallas possibly score enough to beat Miami in a 7 game series.  But they did!  Your points mostly have been excellent and convincing.  But we just saw this past June that sometimes logic doesn't prevail in the NBA playoffs.  Since the most recent case of logic not prevailing is a Dirk-led team beating a Lebron-led team that is so fresh in my mind, my gut is really pulling GS.

It's the only CBNBA team that has this incredibly unique advantage on you.

In the end it will come down to whether my head or gut is the acting force when my fingers start to type a team as winner.

Except the question you have to ask yourself, can Batum do as a good a job on Lebron as Marion did, because that sung the finals.  History has shown Batum can't.

and for your viewing pleasure

This is what happened when he tried

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PplvNDqPvKs


Please watch, its awesome

Marion played admirably but it was Lebron who ultimately beat Lebron. His indecision and lack of being sure of himself made him play pedestrian in the finals. I think a combo of Thad and Batum can bring what Marion did. How has James fared against Marion in the past?

Dirk has shown more of a propensity for delivering in the big moments then James.

This is the only series holding me up from sending in my votes. My gut keeps flip flopping on me and I fear that I will not be comfortable with either decision I make.

Lebron has had HCA the last three years in the series he lost in also.

[Roy H.]

Say what you want but in the games that Lebron played against Marion when Marion had a defensive presence behind him guarding the basket (chandler) he held Lebron to shooting percentages of .263 and .353.

You better hope you don't meet the 76ers in the Finals, then.  They have that strong defensive presence, plus a strong defender at center.

[nickagneta]

But the problem is, my gut wants to say GS.  See, that was a great point you just brought up.  BUT, before the 2011 playoffs started, Miami had good defenders 2-5 also and a typical NBA fan would have asked how could Dallas possibly score enough to beat Miami in a 7 game series.  

Woah...wait right there.

2 through 5?

Bosh is a passable defender at the 4 spot and often gets lit up by the upper half of the better PFs in the league.

Where is the plus defender at the 5 for Miami?

Miami had plus defenders at the 2 and 3 spot...that's it. The media(ESPN, ABC, TNT) pushed the magnificence of the defense and players around Wade and Lebron but the reality was if LeBron and Wade weren't both great, that team wasn't great and the rest of the crew was as average or blow average as everyone thought they were in the pre-season.

Also, I just can't see how people can compare this Warriors team with inexperienced, unproven players(with the exception of Camby and Miller who are both approaching over the hill status) with the All-Star, deeply experience, former All-NBA type players that surrounded Dirk in Dallas.

In 2008 people thought the Big 3 in Boston too ol;d and they proved everyone wrong for 4 years. last year people thought Dallas too old. Wrong.

Fact is experience, deep playoff experience wins in the post season and other than Dirk, the Warriors have none.

[nickagneta]

Say what you want but in the games that Lebron played against Marion when Marion had a defensive presence behind him guarding the basket (chandler) he held Lebron to shooting percentages of .263 and .353.

You better hope you don't meet the 76ers in the Finals, then.  They have that strong defensive presence, plus a strong defender at center.

If we get to the Finals and face Philly, I would have no problem if people voted Philly better than Sactown. I think the teams very evenly matched think it would be just a matter of preference.

In this matchup, I have to think people just aren't looking closely enough at the proof we have shown that shows matchup favoring the Kings, the experience of the kings and the inexperience of the warriors.

[Roy H.]

In this matchup, I have to think people just aren't looking closely enough at the proof we have shown that shows matchup favoring the Kings, the experience of the kings and the inexperience of the warriors.

If these teams played 100 series, I think Sacramento would win about 65 times.  Dirk is good enough to take over the series, and I think he would a lot of the time.  However, if I'm going on averages, I think Sacramento would be most likely to win.

[mgent]

Was Marion even on LeBron more times than not?  I thought Dallas was most effective with the JJ/Terry/Marion lineup, with Terry on LeBron and Marion on Wade.  Wade was the one that needed slowing down, LeBron was just hanging out behind the arc.

[nickagneta]

Hey, you can rely on youtube clips and small sample sizes if you want, or you can take a look at what happened in the Finals. If Lebron kept up his regular season dominance throughout the playoffs in his career, he'd have a ring by now.

These aren't the Finals and you team is nowhere near as good, experienced or defensively oriented as that Mavs team.

Other than the series versus the Mavs here are lebron's stats for EVERY OTHER playoff series he has played in:

2011

vs CHI 25.8 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 6.6 APG, 1.8 BPG, 2.4 SPG 44.7/38.9/86.4 shooting %s
vs BOS 28.0 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.8 BPG, 1.8 SPG 47.2/43.5/66.7
vs PHI 24.3 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 6.2 APG, 0.8 BPG, 0.8 SPG, 46.9/25.0/82.0

2010

vs BOS 26.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.3 BPG, 2.2 SPG, 44.7/26.9/74.3
vs CHI 31.8 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 8.2 APG, 2.4 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 56.7/54.2/72.0

2009

vs ORL 38.5 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 8.0 APG, 1.2 BPG, 1.2 SPG, 48.7/29.7/74.5
vs ATL 33.8 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 6.0 APG, 0.5 BPG, 2.5 SPG, 55.6/48.1/69.6
vs DET 32.0 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 7.5 APG, 0.8 BPG, 1.5 SPG, 50.6/17.6/79.7

2008

vs BOS 26.7 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1.3 BPG, 2.1 SPG, 35.5/23.1/75.6
vs WAS 29.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.7 APG, 1.3 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 48.3/29.0/70.1

2007

vs SAS 22.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.8 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 35.6/20.0/69.0
vs DET 25.7 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 8.5 APG, 0.5 BPG, 2.5 SPG, 44.9/35.7/74.1
vs NJ  24.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 8.5 APG, 0.3 BPg, 1.2 SPG, 42.3/30.8/75.4
vs WAS 27.8 PPG, 8.5 RPG, 7.5 APG, 0.8 BPG, 1.8 SPG, 42.5/26.7/81.3

2006

vs DET 26.6 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 6.0 APG, 0.7 BPG, 1.4 SPG, 44.2/27.6/72.7
vs WAS 35.7 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 5.7 APG, 0.7 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 51.0/38.2/74.6 


Clearly, Lebron had a bad Finals but his history in series other than that is exceptional given who he played with and against.

Most superduperstars like have a bad playoff series and go on to be Champions. Magic and Dirk to name two.

[nickagneta]

In this matchup, I have to think people just aren't looking closely enough at the proof we have shown that shows matchup favoring the Kings, the experience of the kings and the inexperience of the warriors.

If these teams played 100 series, I think Sacramento would win about 65 times.  Dirk is good enough to take over the series, and I think he would a lot of the time.  However, if I'm going on averages, I think Sacramento would be most likely to win.

I respect that opinion and agree that Dirk absolutely can win a series by himself against our team. But I think you are right. A large majority of the time he won't though I think your numbers a bit low. Given the inexperienced nature of his surrounding cast in the playoffs I would put it at 20-25% of the time he could pull the rabbit out of his hat.

[Roy H.]

Clearly, Lebron had a bad Finals but his history in series other than that is exceptional given who he played with and against.

vs SAS 22.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.8 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 35.6/20.0/69.0

Two Finals appearances, two choke jobs.  If the Kings make it that far, I'm assuming Lebron collapses yet again.  However, up until that point, I agree:  he's been a very good performer (although a ton of educated observers seem to think he quit against the Celtics, too).

[Rondo2287]

Clearly, Lebron had a bad Finals but his history in series other than that is exceptional given who he played with and against.

vs SAS 22.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 6.8 APG, 0.5 BPG, 1.0 SPG, 35.6/20.0/69.0

Two Finals appearances, two choke jobs.  If the Kings make it that far, I'm assuming Lebron collapses yet again.  However, up until that point, I agree:  he's been a very good performer (although a ton of educated observers seem to think he quit against the Celtics, too).

I would agree this year was a choke job, though as i pointed out, Marion and chandler did an excellent job defensively.

But I think the first finals series against the spurs they were just incredibly overmatched and probably shouldnt have been there in the first place if lebron wasnt out of his mind good.

I remember watching that game against detroit where Lebron scored the last 25 points or something.  I remember actually liking lebron after that.  [dang], that seems crazy to say