Author Topic: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars  (Read 7552 times)

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Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« on: January 23, 2020, 12:33:23 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/28483078/lowe-nba-all-stars-24-players-plus-biggest-debates


I like Zach Lowe a lot.  I pretty much always respect his opinion on the NBA.  Much more so than basically any other media person except maybe Jackie Mac.


I have to break with him on this one.


Tatum is an All-Star.  He's so obviously an All-Star that I have to question how much Celtics basketball a person has actually watched if they want to say that he's not an All-Star.


I like Jaylen Brown a lot, and I think there's a case that he should be an All-Star, but if you ask me who is more crucial to the Celts this year, the answer is Tatum without hesitation.

It seems to me that it's become "cool" in NBA geek circles to think that Tatum is not actually that good.  I'm usually not a "watch the games!" guy, but that's where I'm at on this one.  Focusing on shooting percentages misses the forest for the trees.


If I'm building a team to win games this season, I'm taking Tatum over Jaylen; I'm taking him over Middleton; I'm taking him over Sabonis.  Given how important wing play is compared to big man play, I would have to think hard about whether I'd take Tatum over Bam.


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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #1 on: January 23, 2020, 12:56:34 PM »

Offline LilRip

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Tatum should be an all star this year, over Jaylen Brown. Celts though probably shouldn’t have 3 all stars, which means JB probably deserves to get cut.
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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #2 on: January 23, 2020, 01:00:15 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Yeah I agree with you on this one, I would put Tatum in over Jaylen. I would have both on the team though.

You can see my comments in the NBA 2019-2020 thread for my thoughts on putting Trae in over Tatum or Jaylen.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #3 on: January 23, 2020, 01:02:16 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Tatum should be an all star this year, over Jaylen Brown. Celts though probably shouldn’t have 3 all stars, which means JB probably deserves to get cut.
I think they deserve three. The reason the C's have been so good this year is that they have 3 all-star level players, even though I'm not sure any of the three is quite all-NBA caliber. (Tatum/Kemba have a 3rd team last spot type of consideration argument but many all-stars are firmly on that team already)

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #4 on: January 23, 2020, 01:06:09 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Tatum should be an all star this year, over Jaylen Brown. Celts though probably shouldn’t have 3 all stars, which means JB probably deserves to get cut.
I think they deserve three. The reason the C's have been so good this year is that they have 3 all-star level players, even though I'm not sure any of the three is quite all-NBA caliber. (Tatum/Kemba have a 3rd team last spot type of consideration argument but many all-stars are firmly on that team already)


This would be my argument as well -- the Celts are as good as they are because of the depth of talent in the top third of the roster.

With that said, I don't have an issue with an argument that the best teams in each conference should get a couple All-Stars each and then maybe the rest of the decent teams should each get one, assuming they have at least one deserving person.  In that case Boston would only get two.


My thing is that (a) Tatum should definitely be an All-Star and (b) if you're picking between Tatum and Brown, it's not a hard choice. 

I also don't think it's a hard choice between Tatum and a lot of the other forwards that are in the discussion for East All-Star.  The only two forwards in the East that I would definitely rather have than Tatum are Giannis and Siakam.  I'm not a fan of Jimmy Butler (mostly from a personality standpoint, but he's a poor shooter as well).
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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #5 on: January 23, 2020, 01:15:10 PM »

Offline johnnygreen

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He seems to be putting too much emphasis on defense, in order to qualify who should be picked for the All Star game. I’m starting to wonder if Zach Lowe has ever seen an All Star game now. The All Star game could roll out Bill Russell, Kevin Garnett, Kawhi Leonard, Michael Jordan, and Gary Payton on one team, and the opposing All Star team would still score over 120 points.

I do agree that the Celtics, or any team this year, should probably not have 3 All Stars. I would have went with Tatum over Brown, but will admit, it is basically splitting hairs with one over the other.

Kyle Lowry’s inclusion seems to be more of a lifetime achievement award, and not necessarily based on his play this year. Ban Adebayo is having a good year on a very good team, but is he really deserving of an All Star selection?

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #6 on: January 23, 2020, 01:15:49 PM »

Online Roy H.

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I think both should make it, but I lean toward Jaylen as being my first choice.  He’s put up almost the same numbers on much superior efficiency.


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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #7 on: January 23, 2020, 01:16:12 PM »

Online bdm860

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Lowe is my favorite too.

But I think you're switching the question:

but if you ask me who is more crucial to the Celts this year, the answer is Tatum without hesitation.

This is not the question Lowe is answering.

Who is more crucial vs who played the best the first 40ish games.

Lowe's analysis seems very fair to me:

Quote
Tatum has the best dossier, but he is shooting a career-worst 47% on 2s and is the fourth-best passer among Boston's heavy-rotation guys.

Tatum is ahead of Brown as a distributor, and underrated on defense -- Brown's equal. Brad Stevens has leaned most on Tatum to prop up Boston's offense when Walker rests. I'd bet on Tatum being better than Brown over his career -- and probably over the rest of this season.

But Tatum and Brown are still mostly finishers, and Brown -- 39% from deep, 55% on 2s -- has finished more accurately over the relevant sample. Tatum's case isn't so strong that Boston should get a third All-Star.

And when you look at the stats, it's crazy how similar they are.  Per game, advanced, whatever your fancy.  Points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, steals, PER are all very close, though where they differ, Tatum's are slightly better.  But where Brown separates himself is efficiency, which Lowe mentioned as his tie breaker.  Brown has been better by a wide margin in eFG% and TS%.

And we've seen some of the complaints here, how Tatum's more likely to go ISO and has worse shot selection.  Also I know we joke about how Tatum will be hot one game and ice cold the next.  Brown hasn't had as many cold bouts (though has also played 6 fewer games) as Tatum has.  Brown has 8 games with a FG% <40%, while Tatum has had 15.

As somebody who watches every game, I'm okay with Brown being an All-Star over Tatum if you had to pick one.  To me it's a coin toss, and personally I'd probably give it to Brown now, just because I expect Tatum to make more in the future.

No problem with Lowe's opinion here.

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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #8 on: January 23, 2020, 01:18:35 PM »

Online Roy H.

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Quote
My thing is that (a) Tatum should definitely be an All-Star and (b) if you're picking between Tatum and Brown, it's not a hard choice. 

What massive differentiation are you seeing in Tatum’s favor here?


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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #9 on: January 23, 2020, 01:21:06 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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My thing is that (a) Tatum should definitely be an All-Star and (b) if you're picking between Tatum and Brown, it's not a hard choice. 


I disagree that it's not a hard choice.   Tatum has played more minutes and has taken more shots, but otherwise their counting numbers (especially when you look at per-36) are almost identical across the board ... except Jaylen has simply been much more efficient.

Tatum has also been much more dependent on Hayward's presence.   His scoring efficiency fluctuates wildly depending on whether Hayward is on the floor (57.6% TS) or not (51.9%).   Jaylen's scoring efficiency has been steady (59.8, 59.5) and less dependent on Hayward's presence.

I can understand arguments made for either.  I don't think it's a simple, obvious choice at all.  Personally, I think both are playing at AS level right now and deserve to make the cut.
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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #10 on: January 23, 2020, 01:24:13 PM »

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Both Jaylen & Tatum should be on the All Star team. It is a crime against basketball if they are not there. There simply isn't enough All-Star talent in the East to justify knocking one of them off because folks do not like seeing 3 guys from one team make it if that one team is not top of the conference.

I'd take Jaylen's performance this season over Tatum's performance myself. I think Jaylen has made a bigger positive contribution to the team. Almost as much positive plays as Tatum with much less negative plays (largely due to bad shots).

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #11 on: January 23, 2020, 01:28:27 PM »

Online bdm860

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Tatum should be an all star this year, over Jaylen Brown. Celts though probably shouldn’t have 3 all stars, which means JB probably deserves to get cut.
I think they deserve three. The reason the C's have been so good this year is that they have 3 all-star level players, even though I'm not sure any of the three is quite all-NBA caliber. (Tatum/Kemba have a 3rd team last spot type of consideration argument but many all-stars are firmly on that team already)

League wide, what 4-5 guards do you see ahead of Kemba for All-NBA that would potentially put him last spot on 3rd team?  On my personal ballot, I have Kemba firmly in 2nd Team All-NBA (continuing an impressive run of PGs in Stevens system).  It's Doncic, Harden, Lillard, Kemba, with a clear gap between Kemba and the next tier down (Young, Beal, Simmons, Lowry, Booker, Mitchell, etc.).

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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #12 on: January 23, 2020, 01:29:30 PM »

Offline LilRip

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If Celts are getting 3 all stars, then I think Milwaukee deserves 3 as well. Even more so, actually. Their win% is ridiculous right now - they’re on pace for 71 wins.

The reason I say C’s probably only deserve 2 is because we’re not dominating the eastern conference. We’re 3rd/4th. Other teams deserve some all stars there too
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Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2020, 01:34:44 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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If Celts are getting 3 all stars, then I think Milwaukee deserves 3 as well. Even more so, actually. Their win% is ridiculous right now - they’re on pace for 71 wins.

The reason I say C’s probably only deserve 2 is because we’re not dominating the eastern conference. We’re 3rd/4th. Other teams deserve some all stars there too
Giannis is worth probably 5 all-star spots on his own. He's been that dominant.

I don't feel the need to give any to his teammates. Middleton can get in on his coattails, no more than that.

Re: Zach Lowe re: All-Stars
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2020, 01:35:10 PM »

Offline Moranis

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The only real argument for leaving Tatum off is he is a front court player which is just deeper than the guards.  I don't really have any issue with Giannis, Butler, Embiid, Siakam, Adebayo, Sabonis, and Middleton making the team.  That is 7 front court players, you can't put an 8th on the team so if you put Tatum on, you have to take one of those players off.  Embiid actually seems like the easiest to remove given his games played, but I expect him to start and I'd have a hard time putting Boston's #2 player (even though I think he is the most valuable, he probably isn't quite as good as Walker yet) in over the #1 player on the Pacers (who are just behind Boston in record), or the #2 players on the two top teams in the conference.

I know Lowe didn't frame it that way, but that seems like a reasonable enough result when you do look at this way.  The guards are much weaker and with guys like Irving being hurt, it makes it easier for Brown to get in even though Tatum has been the better player.
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