Author Topic: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread  (Read 123687 times)

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Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #165 on: July 18, 2018, 02:00:26 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed. Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.


Not tanking but very bad is rather vague. In what range do you expect their W-L?
I think they will end up right around their win total from last year in the 20-25 win range.  I just don't think they are well put together and really do think much of their tanking was overblown with quite simply bad roster management and construction.  I know their are stories out there like the one clay posted, but I watched them enough the last couple of years to see they just aren't a very good team and signing Deandre Jordan isn't going to make them a very good team.

You don't think them having it documented that they played a reverse death lineup with a guy that didn't know their plays and 3 undrafted players impacted their wins? The only team that i saw being documented as bad for tanking in january like this was the bulls (everyone did it the last month)

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #166 on: July 18, 2018, 02:01:14 PM »

Offline footey

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #167 on: July 18, 2018, 02:09:18 PM »

Offline bdm860

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.

Oops, you're correct. I forgot about Jordan.

Mike

Also, for whatever reason, a few people on here really didn't realize how hard Dallas was tanking last year. They have some veteran talent and good coaching. Here is from an article on espn (link crashed)

"The brutally honest and painfully obvious -- not to mention extremely pricey -- way to put it is that the Mavs have at least tinkered with tanking.

Just look at the lineup that Carlisle put on the floor for the final 5:19 of that tight game against the Lakers.

The veterans who kept the Mavs in the game took a seat down the stretch despite Nowitzki, Barnes, Matthews, guard J.J. Barea and center Dwight Powell combining for 85 points on 66 percent shooting from the floor that night. Small forward Doug McDermott, making his Mavs debut after arriving in a trade deadline deal, joined 20-year-old rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr. and a trio of undrafted players on minimum contracts (Kleber, guard Yogi Ferrell and center Salah Mejri).

That foursome played a total of 12 minutes together in the first three and a half months but has recently become the Mavs' closing lineup of choice. It's a group that had blown a 10-point lead in the final 4:42 of a loss to the LA Clippers a couple of games earlier and was minus-38 in 24 February minutes before managing to close out the Lakers.

"Hopefully the new draft lottery rules will change the approach to player development," Cuban wrote in a recent email reply to ESPN, although he expressed his doubts on the issue after abstaining from the vote in October."

Dallas was up among the hardest tankers in all of the league last year. No way to spin it any other way. They would win 5-7 more games easily just from not doing those hardcore shenanigans.

So do you think Dallas was tanking all last season or just the 2nd half of last season? 

Quote
That foursome played a total of 12 minutes together in the first three and a half months but has recently become the Mavs' closing lineup of choice.


That sentence makes it sound like a 2nd half thing, but I'm not really sure, but I do know the Mavs were bad pretty much all of last year.  They had a good stretch in Dec (with all 8 wins coming against teams with playoff aspirations) but that was about it.

Oct: 1-7, 13% win % = 10 win pace
Nov: 4-10, 29% win % = 23 win pace
Dec: 8-8, 50% win % = 41 win pace
Jan: 3-11, 21% win % = 18 win pace
Feb: 3-7, 30% win % = 25 win pace
Mar: 4-10, 29% win % = 23 win pace
Apr: 1-5, 17% win % = 14 win pace

So if you think they were tanking all last year that's fine, but if you think it was just a 2nd half thing where they pulled their vets and experimented with lineups, I would disagree.


Personally I don't know what to think of the Mavs.  My heart says a couple of solid players in Barnes and Jordan, a few scrappy rotation players with Powell, Ferrell, Barea, interesting young players in Smith and Doncic, OG Dirk, with a top coach in Carlisle.  That's a team that can win around 35, and if everything breaks right maybe even hit .500.

But my brain says Barnes is a very slightly better Jeff Green, Jordan is out of style in the current NBA, Dirk's been cooked, and everybody else looks better than they are putting up empty numbers on a poorly constructed team that was "tanking."  And whose to say they won't try to tank again this upcoming season because their draft pick next year is Top-5 protected?

I can see them winning 25, I can see them winning 35.  I don't really know on this one.

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Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #168 on: July 18, 2018, 02:13:30 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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biggest FA/trade target remaining that could have made the Kings a likely playoff team is off to Toronto...

good news for the protected pick staying in the lottery! :D

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #169 on: July 18, 2018, 02:27:26 PM »

Online Moranis

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.
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Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #170 on: July 18, 2018, 04:44:29 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #171 on: July 18, 2018, 06:13:44 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable. 

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #172 on: July 18, 2018, 06:19:48 PM »

Offline JHTruth

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Meh, not seeing it. They still have an aging Dirk and DJ. Plus Smith and Luka. They won't be good by any means but the Kings literally have nothing. And "incentive" to tank means little as history has taught us.

Suns will be better, who knows by how much but adding Ayton should get them in the 30'win mark. They are done tanking as well.

Vegas has the Kings at around the 3-4 worst team. Sounds about right

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #173 on: July 18, 2018, 06:27:09 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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These projections are interesting to look at:

Quote
I added a Wins Likely Range, which is a 90% confidence interval, into my live win projection tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nVYeMSUq8GI1-0Qe9E3lgT5jjT0LMFP4brLt_oOefJg/edit?usp=sharing




https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1019668408462389250

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #174 on: July 18, 2018, 06:29:52 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book

Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1

Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #175 on: July 18, 2018, 06:57:20 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book

Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1

Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.
I'd expect the odds projections for last season would have been similar.  The Kings were tied with the Bulls for the 2nd worst point differential and yet they finished 4th worst in the West and 7th worst overall. 

Also, betting odds of winning the west don't necessarily equate to how the bottom teams are projected to finish in the West. 
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 07:05:47 PM by tazzmaniac »

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #176 on: July 18, 2018, 07:01:04 PM »

Offline saltlover

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book

Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1

Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.
I'd expect the odds projections for last season would have been similar.  The Kings were tied with the Bulls for the 2nd worst point differential and yet they finished 4th worst in the West and 7th worst overall.

This is all getting divorced from the original debate.  I said that the Mavericks are in a different tier of a team than Sacramento, and Moranis disagreed.  Yes, random things happen to records, injuries happen, etc.  Dallas is still a cut higher than Sacramento, and has only marginally more reason to tank than Sacramento (which Dallas was blatantly doing last year — Cuban even got fined for telling his players to tank.)

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #177 on: July 18, 2018, 07:09:01 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book

Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1

Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.
I'd expect the odds projections for last season would have been similar.  The Kings were tied with the Bulls for the 2nd worst point differential and yet they finished 4th worst in the West and 7th worst overall.

This is all getting divorced from the original debate.  I said that the Mavericks are in a different tier of a team than Sacramento, and Moranis disagreed.  Yes, random things happen to records, injuries happen, etc.  Dallas is still a cut higher than Sacramento, and has only marginally more reason to tank than Sacramento (which Dallas was blatantly doing last year — Cuban even got fined for telling his players to tank.)

Saltlover I was trying to illustrate that by providing third part ideas. If one team is 250-1 and one is 200-1 to win their conference you can argue they are in the same tier. If one is 150-1 and the other one is 1000-1 they clearly are viewed as being different level teams for whatever reason.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #178 on: July 18, 2018, 07:12:28 PM »

Offline saltlover

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book

Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1

Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.
I'd expect the odds projections for last season would have been similar.  The Kings were tied with the Bulls for the 2nd worst point differential and yet they finished 4th worst in the West and 7th worst overall.

This is all getting divorced from the original debate.  I said that the Mavericks are in a different tier of a team than Sacramento, and Moranis disagreed.  Yes, random things happen to records, injuries happen, etc.  Dallas is still a cut higher than Sacramento, and has only marginally more reason to tank than Sacramento (which Dallas was blatantly doing last year — Cuban even got fined for telling his players to tank.)

Saltlover I was trying to illustrate that by providing third part ideas. If one team is 250-1 and one is 200-1 to win their conference you can argue they are in the same tier. If one is 150-1 and the other one is 1000-1 they clearly are viewed as being different level teams for whatever reason.

I know.  That’s why I was replying to Tazz :)

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #179 on: July 18, 2018, 07:44:53 PM »

Offline JHTruth

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book

Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1

Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.
I'd expect the odds projections for last season would have been similar.  The Kings were tied with the Bulls for the 2nd worst point differential and yet they finished 4th worst in the West and 7th worst overall. 

Also, betting odds of winning the west don't necessarily equate to how the bottom teams are projected to finish in the West.

So they overperformed their point differential last year. Fine.

Wouldn't it make sense that they regress back to the mean in terms of pt differential to the 2-4 worst team in the league rather than overperforming again?