Poll

Would we have beaten the Heat if Hayward had not sprained ankle vs Philly?

Yes, and I think we could have beaten Lakers, or at least taken them to 7 games.
32 (60.4%)
Yes, but would have gotten blown out by Lakers so who cares.
8 (15.1%)
No, Gordon would not have made enough difference to swing Heat series the other way.
13 (24.5%)

Total Members Voted: 53

Voting closed: November 20, 2020, 04:45:32 PM

Author Topic: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?  (Read 3460 times)

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Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 12:05:04 AM »

Offline mmmmm

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I voted yes and here's why:   We are a fundamentally different team with a healthy Hayward in the starting lineup.

Our preferred lineup strategy, with everyone healthy, is to deploy a 1-guard, 3-wing, 1-big lineup where by 'wing' I mean "small forward sized wing".   That lineup presents an offensive match up nightmare (because at least one of the wings will have a matchup advantage on either a big or a small) and switches everything on defense.

Our standard starting 5 of Kemba+Jaylen+Gordon+Jayson+Theis posted a big phat +11.4 Net Rating -- and that includes both regular season AND playoffs, with a hobbled Hayward.   That lineup featured a smoking hot 60.5% TS%.

BUT ... we played most of the playoffs without Gordon and the few games we had him he clearly was not healthy.   Further, we also were missing both Romeo and Javonte'.  This means, out of our normal stable of six "SF-sized wings" we had only Jaylen, Jayson and ... Semi healthy.   This had multiple negative consequences.

First off, it meant that Jaylen and Jayson had to play a ton of minutes -- including in games that were not close.  Both Jays seemed to be running out of gas by the end of the MIA series.

Second of all, it meant that instead of having 3 guys who were all 'small forward' sized on the floor along with a big and only one 'small', instead, we had to make up Hayward's minutes with Brad Wanamaker and more minutes for Marcus Smart.   Smart is big for a guard, but he's not to be confused with a small forward.  He is a guard.   And Wanamaker is a guard.

So, unfortunately, we played most of the playoffs with a 2-guard, 2-wing, 1-big lineup.

Our starting lineup in the playoffs was Kemba+Smart+Jaylen+Jayson+Theis.   That lineup had a NetRtg of +2.4 and scoring efficiency of just 54.6% TS% (again, includes both regular season & playoffs).

That's just a fundamentally different -- and less effective -- starting lineup.

I've watched the NBA for a long time.   And one thing that is constant is that starting lineups are the dominant factor in winning titles.   Bench depth can win a game or two in a deep playoff run.  But it is the strength of the starting lineup that wins most of them and the net ratings of starting lineups is a powerful predictor of playoff success.

So for us to drop a net -9.0 points off our starting lineup's Net Rating between what we used in the regular season and what we used in the playoffs was, well a huge handicap.

So, yeah, I can't help but feel pretty strongly that if we had been luckier and been fully healthy through the playoffs, that we most likely would have performed MUCH better.
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Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 12:18:29 AM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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LA probably handles us.

No answer for AD. They have the clear cut two best players in the series.

However I think we beat Miami. Healthy Hayward completely neuters that zone.
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Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 06:54:01 AM »

Offline JohnBoy65

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However, Hayward would not have made much of a difference with respect to handling Bam inside.  That would still have been a huge problem.



I think a healthy Hayward allows for a bigger front court. Which gives us the ability to put someone that's 6'7 or 6'8 on Dragic. That would have limited Bam's role. I do think the combination of Kemba and Wannamaker just allowed for Goran and Bam to do too much of what they wanted.

Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 09:40:56 AM »

Offline johnnygreen

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The implementation of the zone defense by Toronto was the biggest factor in extending that series and providing the blue print for Miami. I’m still flabbergasted that Boston couldn’t figure it out. However, I strongly believe if Hayward was healthy, he would have ran the point against Toronto if Kemba had that much trouble. I know Kemba ran the point, but his reluctance to shoot and break down the defense was killer. Hayward would have broken down the defense and created open shots for Kemba (and others), who could have just caught and shot. It would have shown the zone to be ineffective and Miami would have most likely not used it once. Also, since the zone extended the series for Toronto, it gave Miami extra time to practice and implement a zone defensive strategy.

Also, I just saw JohnBoy65 bring up Dragic. I wish who ever was defending him, would have complained about Dragic's constant hooking on drives. I also wanted Brad to call the refs out after games for not calling Dragic's hooking, so the refs and the league were put on notice too. Dragic was a massive factor in those fourth quarters, and would have been less effective driving to the basket without using his right arm.

Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 10:50:00 AM »

Offline Birdman

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Rather lose to Miami than the Lakers..Lakers would beat us plus Davis would probably average a Triple double against us
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2020, 10:51:25 AM »

Online Donoghus

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Absolutely.


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Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2020, 11:28:05 AM »

Online jbpats

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A healthy Hayward doesn't stop hero ball from Tatum or Smart, nor does it make Kemba turn back into Kemba.. although to the latter point he gets Kemba off the court during his struggles.

I think we lose the series regardless unfortunately. We had no answer for Bam and Hayward certainly wasn't the answer to stop him.

Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2020, 12:14:02 PM »

Offline mmmmm

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The implementation of the zone defense by Toronto was the biggest factor in extending that series and providing the blue print for Miami. I’m still flabbergasted that Boston couldn’t figure it out.

This is a tidy narrative that was given a lot of voice by sportscasters and some writers and a lot of fans kept / keep echoing it, but I don't really think it is true.

The purpose of the box-and-1 zone was to trap Kemba and keep him from 'going off' and beating TOR single-handedly. That's the basic purpose of a box-and-1 strategy.  To take out the opponent's primary scorer.   And it did have the effect that Kemba's individual scoring numbers were suppressed.

But Kemba did a great job in avoiding the main mistake he could have made when faced with those traps.  He didn't force shots.  He passed out and his teammates benefited.

The Celtics posted an excellent 56.4% TS% (scoring efficiency) against TOR in their series and followed that up with a 58.0% TS% scoring efficiency against MIA.   We scored very efficiently against both teams.  Not as efficiently as we would have had we had a healthy Hayward, but still very efficiently.

We just had some rotten luck on some 50/50 plays, bad calls and miracle shots and a few games with uncharacteristic turnovers - most of them unforced.

The zone defense didn't result in Lowry's perfect hail-mary pass to OG for the perfect winning shot with 0.5s left.   The zone defense didn't cause the refs to completely miss the fouls on Kemba's drive that should have had him winning a game at the FT line.   The zone defense didn't cause normally poor 3PT shooter Jimmy Butler's Hail Mary three to drop in.   The zone defense didn't cause Iggy, who had shot 29.8% on threes this season and only 3 of 13 so far in the series to suddenly go 5-of-5 from deep in Game 6.
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Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2020, 12:32:49 PM »

Offline LilRip

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Unpopular opinion: I voted No

I mean, I thought we had enough to get by the Heat (with or without Hayward)! So while this would have been an easy Yes for me prior to the playoffs, I’m not so sure anymore post-bubble. I mean, at some point, we have to give Miami credit too right?
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Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2020, 05:46:07 PM »

Offline PAOBoston

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First off, I think they should of beaten the Heat as they were.

But a healthy Hayward would have likely meant that Toronto series ends in 4-5 games instead of 7 grueling games. A fully healthy Hayward would have also swing the series bs Miami.

Against the Lakers, I’m not so sure. Playoff Lebron and AD would have been a problem. I think the series would have been more competitive but don’t think the Cs would pull it out. That being said, Cs seemed to handle the Lakers pretty well during regular series so who knows.

Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2020, 06:53:55 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Based on how the team played in  the 4th quarter of that series i'd say no.

Re: Poll: Would we have beaten the Heat with a healthy Gordon Hayward?
« Reply #26 on: October 23, 2020, 05:00:11 AM »

Offline Somebody

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We should've won the ECF as is even with a hobbled Hayward so I'll say absolutely, adding a top 40-50 player to what we had in that series would've considerably stacked the deck in favour of us.
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