Annual GM Survey

[Kernewek]

Luka was an MVP candidate in his second and third seasons, and is only 22. Dallas just needs to do a better job of building around Luka, before the team is able to take that next step. The next best player for Dallas is Porzingas, who is extremely unreliable. Let’s also not forget, Dallas was able to draft Luka (3rd overall via trade) because they were 24-58, and a bad team.

I understand the argument for Giannis, especially since he is still only 26. However, unlike Dallas, the Bucks sold out last offseason by trading 5 first round picks to acquire Jrue Holiday, in hopes of winning a title (and showing a commitment to Giannis). In other words, the Bucks were built to win a title, with their trio of Giannis, Holiday, and Middleton. There were talks of the team firing the head coach if the team didn’t win the title during the Brooklyn series, as they were a huge disappointment based on expectations. Let’s also not forget, Milwaukee doesn’t even make it out of the second round last season, if Durant’s foot wasn’t a half inch past the 3 point line, which ended up being a game 7 tying basket, instead of the series ending basket.

I know it's not a perfect thought experiment, but if you substitute Doncic for Giannis, do the Bucks win the title last year?

I don't think they do.  There's an age gap in Luka's favor, but there's a skill gap in Giannis'.  They're equal scorers, Giannis is more efficient, and Giannis is a better rebounder.  Yes, Luka is a better passer, but is the gap there even close to the gigantic defensive chasm between the two?

How does Giannis fare on the Mavs team? They're a very poorly constructed roster. I don't think Giannis gets past the Clippers either last season or the one prior on the Mavs, as we've seen how Kawhi + another athletic wing defender can bother him.

It's hard to say, but I can't see how more efficient scoring coupled with much, much, much better defense would hurt.

Meanwhile, the Bucks don't win a title with Luka in place of Giannis.

It's a pretty easy analysis to me.  Giannis is great on both sides of the ball.  Luka is great on offense.  If he lifts his game to become an elite shooter -- significantly surpassing Giannis' efficiency -- then maybe there's an argument.  However, right now he's a much less efficient player.  Does his superior passing make up the gap?  I don't think so.  He averages three more assists, but one more turnover.  The value added over Giannis there just isn't that great, particularly because Luka has a history of freezing out teammates and not getting the most out of them.

Yeah, don't get me wrong - I'd pick Giannis first, and I'd pick Luka second. However, if Luka can become a consistent 75% shooter from the stripe and 37% from deep (both of which I think will happen next season) then he's essentially an unstoppable force on offence with his already really solid 2PT shooting. He was also taking much more mid-range shots last season, which I think is crucial for playoff success as a wing-type (Jordan, Durant, Kobe, even LeBron in certain stages of his career, Middleton).

I think Milwaukee has done a much better job at surrounding Giannis with complementary talent than Dallas has with Luka. Middleton, Jrue and Lopez are immensely superior to Porzingis, Hardaway Jr. and Richardson/Finney-Smith.

I think the GMs got this one wrong, but at least it was close (43% to 40%). The more egregious ones, like LA being far and away the best team out West, bothered me more.

Porzingis is a 26 year old former all star that is still basically a 20/10 player.  The fact that he and Luka haven't fit very well I think is a pretty big indictment on Luka. 

Dallas isn't that much worse with Doncic not in the game either.  Last year per 100 possessions they were only 3 points better with Luka on the floor in a very large part because he is such a poor defender and the offense in many ways functions better without him.  He had the highest usage in the league last year.  Luka also seems to have an attitude problem and he has not shown any improvement defensively.  I think there is a real chance he turns into a better version of Kyrie Irving i.e. an unbelievable offensive player that is a terrible defender and a problem in the locker room.  His offensive talent is undeniable though, which is why he should be 2 behind Giannis on that list and well ahead of whomever you put at 3.

Porzingis is doodoo

And made of glass. And the off the court stuff isn't particularly pleasant, although not germane to this discussion.

[Moranis]

Luka was an MVP candidate in his second and third seasons, and is only 22. Dallas just needs to do a better job of building around Luka, before the team is able to take that next step. The next best player for Dallas is Porzingas, who is extremely unreliable. Let’s also not forget, Dallas was able to draft Luka (3rd overall via trade) because they were 24-58, and a bad team.

I understand the argument for Giannis, especially since he is still only 26. However, unlike Dallas, the Bucks sold out last offseason by trading 5 first round picks to acquire Jrue Holiday, in hopes of winning a title (and showing a commitment to Giannis). In other words, the Bucks were built to win a title, with their trio of Giannis, Holiday, and Middleton. There were talks of the team firing the head coach if the team didn’t win the title during the Brooklyn series, as they were a huge disappointment based on expectations. Let’s also not forget, Milwaukee doesn’t even make it out of the second round last season, if Durant’s foot wasn’t a half inch past the 3 point line, which ended up being a game 7 tying basket, instead of the series ending basket.

I know it's not a perfect thought experiment, but if you substitute Doncic for Giannis, do the Bucks win the title last year?

I don't think they do.  There's an age gap in Luka's favor, but there's a skill gap in Giannis'.  They're equal scorers, Giannis is more efficient, and Giannis is a better rebounder.  Yes, Luka is a better passer, but is the gap there even close to the gigantic defensive chasm between the two?

How does Giannis fare on the Mavs team? They're a very poorly constructed roster. I don't think Giannis gets past the Clippers either last season or the one prior on the Mavs, as we've seen how Kawhi + another athletic wing defender can bother him.

It's hard to say, but I can't see how more efficient scoring coupled with much, much, much better defense would hurt.

Meanwhile, the Bucks don't win a title with Luka in place of Giannis.

It's a pretty easy analysis to me.  Giannis is great on both sides of the ball.  Luka is great on offense.  If he lifts his game to become an elite shooter -- significantly surpassing Giannis' efficiency -- then maybe there's an argument.  However, right now he's a much less efficient player.  Does his superior passing make up the gap?  I don't think so.  He averages three more assists, but one more turnover.  The value added over Giannis there just isn't that great, particularly because Luka has a history of freezing out teammates and not getting the most out of them.

Yeah, don't get me wrong - I'd pick Giannis first, and I'd pick Luka second. However, if Luka can become a consistent 75% shooter from the stripe and 37% from deep (both of which I think will happen next season) then he's essentially an unstoppable force on offence with his already really solid 2PT shooting. He was also taking much more mid-range shots last season, which I think is crucial for playoff success as a wing-type (Jordan, Durant, Kobe, even LeBron in certain stages of his career, Middleton).

I think Milwaukee has done a much better job at surrounding Giannis with complementary talent than Dallas has with Luka. Middleton, Jrue and Lopez are immensely superior to Porzingis, Hardaway Jr. and Richardson/Finney-Smith.

I think the GMs got this one wrong, but at least it was close (43% to 40%). The more egregious ones, like LA being far and away the best team out West, bothered me more.

Porzingis is a 26 year old former all star that is still basically a 20/10 player.  The fact that he and Luka haven't fit very well I think is a pretty big indictment on Luka. 

Dallas isn't that much worse with Doncic not in the game either.  Last year per 100 possessions they were only 3 points better with Luka on the floor in a very large part because he is such a poor defender and the offense in many ways functions better without him.  He had the highest usage in the league last year.  Luka also seems to have an attitude problem and he has not shown any improvement defensively.  I think there is a real chance he turns into a better version of Kyrie Irving i.e. an unbelievable offensive player that is a terrible defender and a problem in the locker room.  His offensive talent is undeniable though, which is why he should be 2 behind Giannis on that list and well ahead of whomever you put at 3.

Porzingis is doodoo

And made of glass. And the off the court stuff isn't particularly pleasant, although not germane to this discussion.

He definitely is made of glass, but he still produces on the court at a very high level and he has a skill set that should work well with Luka. 

[Vermont Green]

I would definitely take Giannis over Luka.  I don't feel that all the chapters of Luka's book have been written yet but what I see from him so far is kind of like what you see in Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook has all the numbers, all the flash, but never was quite that player who is the main ingredient in taking a team over the top.  So far, Luka has not been that either, Giannis has.

I think there is still plenty of opportunity for Luka to figure it out and be more Giannis than Westbrook but as of now, he isn't.  He is the Westbrook tier, big flashy numbers on teams that aren't all that great.

Maybe the supporting cast and in particular Porzingis are the problem, or at least part of the problem.  I actually think Porzingis is a pretty good player as a #2 alongside who is supposed to be one of the top players in the league.  But he has been injured and had other issues so it is hard to know definitively.  Maybe it is a coaching problem.  Maybe Kidd can figure it out.

[Celtics2021]

I would definitely take Giannis over Luka.  I don't feel that all the chapters of Luka's book have been written yet but what I see from him so far is kind of like what you see in Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook has all the numbers, all the flash, but never was quite that player who is the main ingredient in taking a team over the top.  So far, Luka has not been that either, Giannis has.

I think there is still plenty of opportunity for Luka to figure it out and be more Giannis than Westbrook but as of now, he isn't.  He is the Westbrook tier, big flashy numbers on teams that aren't all that great.

Maybe the supporting cast and in particular Porzingis are the problem, or at least part of the problem.  I actually think Porzingis is a pretty good player as a #2 alongside who is supposed to be one of the top players in the league.  But he has been injured and had other issues so it is hard to know definitively.  Maybe it is a coaching problem.  Maybe Kidd can figure it out.

I get what you’re saying, but I feel you’re being quite harsh on Luka.  Giannis didn’t make it out of the first round of the playoffs until his 6th season, playing in the (then) weaker Eastern conference.  Luka’s had three seasons, and yeah, wasn’t enough to overcome the Clippers with a healthy Kawhi and Paul George, but did get them to 7 games.  Now suddenly Luka is all flash and no substance?   

[Moranis]

I would definitely take Giannis over Luka.  I don't feel that all the chapters of Luka's book have been written yet but what I see from him so far is kind of like what you see in Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook has all the numbers, all the flash, but never was quite that player who is the main ingredient in taking a team over the top.  So far, Luka has not been that either, Giannis has.

I think there is still plenty of opportunity for Luka to figure it out and be more Giannis than Westbrook but as of now, he isn't.  He is the Westbrook tier, big flashy numbers on teams that aren't all that great.

Maybe the supporting cast and in particular Porzingis are the problem, or at least part of the problem.  I actually think Porzingis is a pretty good player as a #2 alongside who is supposed to be one of the top players in the league.  But he has been injured and had other issues so it is hard to know definitively.  Maybe it is a coaching problem.  Maybe Kidd can figure it out.

I get what you’re saying, but I feel you’re being quite harsh on Luka.  Giannis didn’t make it out of the first round of the playoffs until his 6th season, playing in the (then) weaker Eastern conference.  Luka’s had three seasons, and yeah, wasn’t enough to overcome the Clippers with a healthy Kawhi and Paul George, but did get them to 7 games.  Now suddenly Luka is all flash and no substance?   

The Mavs were only 3 points per 100 possessions better with Luka in the game then when he was on the bench.  That isn't good, especially for a guy that led the league in usage.  Luka is a terrible defender.  He doesn't have to be a great defender, but he absolutely needs to get that up to at least average level.  He also needs to scale back the usage.  He has had back to back seasons with a USG at 36 or better.  As a point of comparison, Lebron never had a usage greater than 33.8 in his career.  Giannis has only been above 32.5 one time (19-20 when he led the league at 37.5).  Even a notoriously selfish player like Kobe only topped 36 one time in his career (05-06 right after Shaq when he averaged 35.7 ppg).  Even Westbrook has only been above 36 twice in his career, though his 41.7 season in 16-17 is the highest season ever (that was his 1st triple double season when he led the league in scoring at 31.6 ppg along with his 10.4 assists and 5.4 turnovers). 

It is worrisome that 3 years in, Luka already has 2 of the 15 highest USG seasons since they started keeping track of that during the 77-78 season.  None of the seasons on that list were on a NBA champion and I'm not even sure they are from teams that even made the conference finals (I didn't look at them all, most were not).  The super high usage seasons are generally poor overall seasons at least where team winning is concerned.  That is absolutely a concern as that generally isn't conducive to high level winning.  He needs to scale back into the 32 or 33 range. 

[Vermont Green]

I would definitely take Giannis over Luka.  I don't feel that all the chapters of Luka's book have been written yet but what I see from him so far is kind of like what you see in Russell Westbrook.  Westbrook has all the numbers, all the flash, but never was quite that player who is the main ingredient in taking a team over the top.  So far, Luka has not been that either, Giannis has.

I think there is still plenty of opportunity for Luka to figure it out and be more Giannis than Westbrook but as of now, he isn't.  He is the Westbrook tier, big flashy numbers on teams that aren't all that great.

Maybe the supporting cast and in particular Porzingis are the problem, or at least part of the problem.  I actually think Porzingis is a pretty good player as a #2 alongside who is supposed to be one of the top players in the league.  But he has been injured and had other issues so it is hard to know definitively.  Maybe it is a coaching problem.  Maybe Kidd can figure it out.

I get what you’re saying, but I feel you’re being quite harsh on Luka.  Giannis didn’t make it out of the first round of the playoffs until his 6th season, playing in the (then) weaker Eastern conference.  Luka’s had three seasons, and yeah, wasn’t enough to overcome the Clippers with a healthy Kawhi and Paul George, but did get them to 7 games.  Now suddenly Luka is all flash and no substance?   

I don't think comparing Luka to Westbrook is such a slight.  Westbrook is a 9 time all NBA player, twice first team.  But the question is who is the single player in the NBA that you would want to building your franchise around.  Even though Westbrook is very accomplished, he would have never been that player and right now, I don't see Luka as that player.  Right now, Luka is on a trajectory to have a career like Westbrook.  He still has plenty of time to change that trajectory, like Giannis was able to do.  But the difference is Giannis has already done it, Luka may or may not do it.

To start my franchise, I would pick Giannis.  If you told we I had to start my franchise with Luka, that is still pretty good, not the end of the world, and in a few years, who knows, maybe Luka is better.  But he isn't right now.  Right now, Giannis is to me clearly the man.

The vote came down to 12 for Giannis and 13 for Luka so clearly there are GMs that disagree with me.  That indicates that these GMs feel Luka will continue to improve and will reach that level.

[Jvalin]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime. His BBIQ is out of this world. Imo, he's on his way to become a GOAT candidate. When all is said and done, I believe he'll be in the same conversation with MJ, LeBron, Larry, Magic, Kareem, Wilt, Russ, Big O and Timmy (these are my GOAT candidates). Don't think Giannis will ever reach that level.

If you ask me, Luka will be the best player in the NBA this season. Fwiw, he's the clear favorite to win the MVP. In a vacuum, I'd already take him over Giannis (or anybody else for that matter). The only thing that holds me back from deeming the Mavs legit contenders is the fact that they hired Kidd. Don't even think Luka needs Porzingis to stay healthy anymore (partly because I'm very low on Porzingis). He's so good that he can lead a contending team on his own. I mean, he led tiny little Slovenia to the semi finals of the Olympics and they didn't even have Dragic! Remember LeBron single-handedly transforming the Cavs into legit contenders in the 00s? This is how good I think Luka is.

[Roy H.]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

[Moranis]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

This is right.  The chasm defensively makes it no contest.  And as I've been arguing for years on here, the MVP is not a determining factor as to how good a player is.  Luka may very well win the MVP, but Giannis will still be the better player, and it isn't going to be close (you know barring an injury that alters Giannis ability).

[Jvalin]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

- The GM survey is about the upcoming season, not the season before.
- He's only 22 years old. He's ahead of Jordan or LeBron at that age. The only player ahead of him at the age of 22 is probably Oscar Robertson.

That said, imo raw box score stats mean close to nothing. All that matters is what each player brings to the table: what he can do on the court and what he cannot do.

- Luka is a PnR maestro. He can create his own shot out of the PnR. Most importantly, he can create shots for his teammates as well. The PnR is quite possibly the most unstoppable team move in basketball, provided that you have the right players to execute it. Can't think of a better PnR ball handler than Luka. I would argue he has the highest BBIQ since Magic Johnson.
- Luka's step back is literally unguardable. He comfortably led the league in step-back jumpers made last season. Only Harden has scored more step-back jumpers in a single season than Luka did last season.The step back 3 is quite possibly the most unstoppable/devastating 1-vs-1 move in the pace-and-space era. Here's a nice video on Luka's step-back jumper.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1as8JsjQrF0&ab_channel=ESPN

Combine Harden's scoring repertoire/ability with Magic-lite court vision and you end up with a GOAT candidate in the making.

Fwiw, I value offense more than defense, but maybe that's just me. You can build your defense around role players (for instance, rim runners like Timelord and/or 3+D guys). Can't possibly find role players to run your offense through them, especially in the clutch. In any case, Luka is 6'7'' which means it's relatively easy to hide him in a switch-heavy defensive scheme.

[Moranis]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

- The GM survey is about the upcoming season, not the season before.
- He's only 22 years old. He's ahead of Jordan or LeBron at that age. The only player ahead of him at the age of 22 is probably Oscar Robertson.

That said, imo raw box score stats mean close to nothing. All that matters is what each player brings to the table: what he can do on the court and what he cannot do.

- Luka is a PnR maestro. He can create his own shot out of the PnR. Most importantly, he can create shots for his teammates as well. The PnR is quite possibly the most unstoppable team move in basketball, provided that you have the right players to execute it. Can't think of a better PnR ball handler than Luka. I would argue he has the highest BBIQ since Magic Johnson.
- Luka's step back is literally unguardable. He comfortably led the league in step-back jumpers made last season. Only Harden has scored more step-back jumpers in a single season than Luka did last season.The step back 3 is quite possibly the most unstoppable/devastating 1-vs-1 move in the pace-and-space era. Here's a nice video on Luka's step-back jumper.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1as8JsjQrF0&ab_channel=ESPN

Combine Harden's scoring repertoire/ability with Magic-lite court vision and you end up with a GOAT candidate in the making.

Fwiw, I value offense more than defense, but maybe that's just me. You can build your defense around role players (for instance, rim runners like Timelord and/or 3+D guys). Can't possibly find role players to run your offense through them, especially in the clutch. In any case, Luka is 6'7'' which means it's relatively easy to hide him in a switch-heavy defensive scheme.

Obviously offense is more important than defense, but it isn't like Giannis is a bad offensive player.  Even last year he had a better eFG% and better TS%.  He gets more offensive rebounds.  Draws more fouls.  Scores at a similar level.  He isn't the passer or long range shooter, but is incredible in the paint.   And while offense is more important, defense does matter.  It is one of the reason the Mavs aren't way worse when Luka is on the bench because whoever comes in for him doesn't give up as many points as Luka does defensively (the Mavs are better with Luka, it just isn't a huge amount).  You can't just let teams score at will on the defensive end and to this point that has been Luka.  It is one of the complaints I had with IT4 and Irving when they were in Boston i.e. great offensive players (and Luka is way better than them), but horrid defenders (luka may be worse than them).   It is all well and good that you get 2 points, but if you give up 2 points, it is a wash.

[td450]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

Jokic is the best offensive player in the league right now.

[Roy H.]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

Jokic is the best offensive player in the league right now.

Yeah, if last year is a reflection of who he is going to be going forward, then I agree.

[gouki88]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

Jokic is the best offensive player in the league right now.

To do what he did on that efficiency was insane. I think he's somehow not talked about enough, despite winning MVP. 26PPG shooting 61% from 2, 39% from three and 87% from the FT line (60% EFG and 65% TS), as well as 8 assists to 3 turnovers a game. Offensive box-score plus/minus of 9.2, which is higher than Michael Jordan ever had, and an offensive RAPTOR rating of 8.6. Basically every metric, advanced or basic, plus the eye test tells you that his offensive play last season was unbelievable. One of the best offensive displays from a big man ever.

His series against Portland was some of the most entertaining play I can remember

[Moranis]

I think you guys underrate Luka. He might be the best offensive player we've seen in our lifetime.

He averaged 27.7 / 8.6 on .550 eFG%.  Very good numbers, but not close to best in multiple generations.

In fact, its arguably inferior to Giannis’ 28.1 / 5.9 / .600 eFG% without even factoring in his better rebounding, fewer turnovers, etc.  And on the defensive end, it’s like comparing Bill Russell to Steve Nash.

Jokic is the best offensive player in the league right now.

Yeah, if last year is a reflection of who he is going to be going forward, then I agree.

Pretty good chance he does as he has shot better from both 2 and 3 in seasons other than last year.  He obviously put it all together last year, but he had 3 straight seasons of at least 7 assists he has been over 10 rebounds 3 times as well.  If he keeps his shots up, there is no reason he can't replicate last year again this year.