A basketball writer named Goodman thinks the Celtics are way worse off this year than than last and Brad has mucked it all up badly . Not a very hopeful analysis to be sure .
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/video/jeff-goodman-grades-celtics-offseason-c-team-worse-right-now
Horford, Richardson, Schröder>Kemba, Fournier, Thompson.
This is an interesting way to look at it. These 3 swaps are the key ones but still of some impact is:
Out: Kornet, Ojeleye
In: Kanter, Dunn, Fernando
Fernando has been statistically equivalent to Ojeleye for their careers, Kanter is better than Kornet, and Dunn may or may not make the team but these back ends swaps do probably improve the team a little.
As to the main guys originally noted:
Horford replaces Thompson (an upgrade)
Schroder replaces Walker (debatable, I score a wash)
Richardson replaces Fournier (also debatable)
So to me, we have one decent upgrade and two probably net washes. You have to look at it in terms of the actual production that the player provided the team last season, not what was the expectation if they weren't injured or weren't traded or whatever. Schroder may help us win more games next season than Walker did last season because Walker only played 43 games (Schroder 61). Walker scored more points (per game) but Schroder may do other things the team needs, and do it in more games.
As to Richardson vs. Fournier, even if you think Fournier is a better player, that isn't the question. The question is to compare what Fournier gave the team last season vs. what you expect Richardson to give the team this season. Fournier gave the Celtics 13 pts, 3 rebs, 3 Asst in 29 min in 16 games. He did not impact the team so you can't look at that as we lost this important production from a good player so we are going to be worse for it. Fournier may have a better season than Richardson and the Celtics may also get more from Richardson than we got from Fournier and thus be better with Richardson (in fact I see this as likely).
I know this is kind of convoluted but these 3 players we have given up did not give the team all that much last season. It is not like there was this important role any of them played that we now have to replace. We were the team we were with relatively limited contribution from any of these 3 players. I don't think we are worse than last season. We are going to win more games is my prediction. I suppose you could say we are worse than we could have been if Walker was healthy and Fournier was on the team all season, but what does that mean?
Or if we win say 48 games (better than last season), is everyone going to say yeah but we would have won 52 if we had Fournier and Walker?