Author Topic: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?  (Read 7127 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2021, 11:49:42 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18705
  • Tommy Points: 1818
Seems to me that when you have many of something other teams demand more of you of what they would demand from other teams. Often it seemed like teams trading with the Celtics asked for more assets than from other teams.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2021, 09:18:27 AM »

Online SHAQATTACK

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 36863
  • Tommy Points: 2968
OKC might do the Philly thing keep trading /drafting top four picks till you hit the best three.   I can’t remember all the top recruits Philly drafted and destroyed while tanking to finally land Simmons and Embiid and actually start playing ball.   At some point you realize that these guys are going to be paid and you can only keep 3-4 of them any significant length of time. You can draft 6 Lebrons , but you can only afford to keep 2-3 long term. 

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2021, 09:59:00 AM »

Online greg683x

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4099
  • Tommy Points: 585
Seems to me that when you have many of something other teams demand more of you of what they would demand from other teams. Often it seemed like teams trading with the Celtics asked for more assets than from other teams.

I think this is spot on.  Having SO many picks I feel can also stunt the value of them.

If other teams know you HAVE to trade some of these picks bc of roster spots and salary complications, they’re gonna feel like they have a leg up on you at the bargaining table.  Almost similar to dealing with a team who’s player has demanded a trade.  Your offers get watered down bc other teams know you have to make a deal
Greg

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2021, 12:19:31 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8147
  • Tommy Points: 549
OKC might do the Philly thing keep trading /drafting top four picks till you hit the best three.   I can’t remember all the top recruits Philly drafted and destroyed while tanking to finally land Simmons and Embiid and actually start playing ball.   At some point you realize that these guys are going to be paid and you can only keep 3-4 of them any significant length of time. You can draft 6 Lebrons , but you can only afford to keep 2-3 long term.
That's because there weren't any.  The Sixers only had 4 top four picks: Embiid, Okafor, Simmons  and Fultz during their tanking period.  They also drafted or acquired via draft day trades: Noel, Michael Carter Williams and Saric in the lottery during their tanking period. 

All of those players are still in the league.  Sixers didn't destroy any of them.  Note that Fultz screwed up his shot before he joined the Sixers. 

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2021, 01:30:41 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8147
  • Tommy Points: 549
Seems to me that when you have many of something other teams demand more of you of what they would demand from other teams. Often it seemed like teams trading with the Celtics asked for more assets than from other teams.

I think this is spot on.  Having SO many picks I feel can also stunt the value of them.

If other teams know you HAVE to trade some of these picks bc of roster spots and salary complications, they’re gonna feel like they have a leg up on you at the bargaining table.  Almost similar to dealing with a team who’s player has demanded a trade.  Your offers get watered down bc other teams know you have to make a deal
It is not anywhere close to the same thing.  A star demanding a trade has to be dealt with in the near term.  There will also be relatively few teams that could be traded with given a star's small list of preferred teams and limited number of teams that are interested and have the assets.  Even so which star trade didn't return good value?  NOP got plenty for AD, Houston got plenty for Harden, OKC got plenty for PG13, NOP got plenty for Holiday and even the Spurs got a good return for Kahwi given the situation. 

OKC has lots of time and lots of options to use their picks.  They have absolutely no roster spot or salary cap issues.  Their only big contract is Kemba which is only for two years and he is most likely to be moved before then.  The "15 picks over 3 years" is fairly bogus since it includes 6 2nd round picks which can easily be traded, sold or used for draft and stash or 2-way players. 

It looks like they'll have 3 1st rounders in each of the next 3 years which is very manageable given their situation.  They could draft them all if they wanted to.  The key for OKC is player development and player assessment.  Need to figure out quickly if a young player putting up numbers is a keeper or "good numbers on bad team" player that should be moved quickly. 

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #20 on: July 17, 2021, 01:32:07 PM »

Offline W8ting2McHale

  • NCE
  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 698
  • Tommy Points: 91
Seems to me that when you have many of something other teams demand more of you of what they would demand from other teams. Often it seemed like teams trading with the Celtics asked for more assets than from other teams.

I think this is spot on.  Having SO many picks I feel can also stunt the value of them.

If other teams know you HAVE to trade some of these picks bc of roster spots and salary complications, they’re gonna feel like they have a leg up on you at the bargaining table.  Almost similar to dealing with a team who’s player has demanded a trade.  Your offers get watered down bc other teams know you have to make a deal

I think this happened to Danny more than once. He was actively looking to trade or consolidate those extra picks, and other GMs knew that he had to, or he would get stuck making a bunch of picks that he didn’t have to.

He didn’t like getting taken advantage of, so he made the picks. Guys like Yabusele and Edwards. In hindsight he should have gritted his teeth and overpaid to get out from under them, in order to get players that could contribute. Instead, he comes out saying there were no deals to be made, but there were probably deals that he just didn’t like.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #21 on: July 17, 2021, 01:34:58 PM »

Online greg683x

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4099
  • Tommy Points: 585
Seems to me that when you have many of something other teams demand more of you of what they would demand from other teams. Often it seemed like teams trading with the Celtics asked for more assets than from other teams.

I think this is spot on.  Having SO many picks I feel can also stunt the value of them.

If other teams know you HAVE to trade some of these picks bc of roster spots and salary complications, they’re gonna feel like they have a leg up on you at the bargaining table.  Almost similar to dealing with a team who’s player has demanded a trade.  Your offers get watered down bc other teams know you have to make a deal

I think this happened to Danny more than once. He was actively looking to trade or consolidate those extra picks, and other GMs knew that he had to, or he would get stuck making a bunch of picks that he didn’t have to.

He didn’t like getting taken advantage of, so he made the picks. Guys like Yabusele and Edwards. In hindsight he should have gritted his teeth and overpaid to get out from under them, in order to get players that could contribute. Instead, he comes out saying there were no deals to be made, but there were probably deals that he just didn’t like.

I think that’s exactly what happened
Greg

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2021, 01:43:51 PM »

Online greg683x

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4099
  • Tommy Points: 585
Seems to me that when you have many of something other teams demand more of you of what they would demand from other teams. Often it seemed like teams trading with the Celtics asked for more assets than from other teams.

I think this is spot on.  Having SO many picks I feel can also stunt the value of them.

If other teams know you HAVE to trade some of these picks bc of roster spots and salary complications, they’re gonna feel like they have a leg up on you at the bargaining table.  Almost similar to dealing with a team who’s player has demanded a trade.  Your offers get watered down bc other teams know you have to make a deal
It is not anywhere close to the same thing.  A star demanding a trade has to be dealt with in the near term.  There will also be relatively few teams that could be traded with given a star's small list of preferred teams and limited number of teams that are interested and have the assets.  Even so which star trade didn't return good value?  NOP got plenty for AD, Houston got plenty for Harden, OKC got plenty for PG13, NOP got plenty for Holiday and even the Spurs got a good return for Kahwi given the situation. 

OKC has lots of time and lots of options to use their picks.  They have absolutely no roster spot or salary cap issues.  Their only big contract is Kemba which is only for two years and he is most likely to be moved before then.  The "15 picks over 3 years" is fairly bogus since it includes 6 2nd round picks which can easily be traded, sold or used for draft and stash or 2-way players. 

It looks like they'll have 3 1st rounders in each of the next 3 years which is very manageable given their situation.  They could draft them all if they wanted to.  The key for OKC is player development and player assessment.  Need to figure out quickly if a young player putting up numbers is a keeper or "good numbers on bad team" player that should be moved quickly.

Having three 1st round picks and a second round pick in an upcoming draft post all star break certainly counts as near term.  Thats certainly similar to how long the Anthony Davis and James Harden sagas played out.  I think there was a year Danny had three firsts and two seconds, I could be wrong, but that’s 5 potential incoming roster spots that he and other teams know he has to deal with.  It’s also definitely a squeeze if your roster is not filled with disposable assets bc you’re a contending team, which is exactly the situation Danny was in.  You don’t think other teams knew that?

You’re also acting like I said it’s the exact same thing as a star demanding a trade.  I said ‘almost similar’ and you took it and ran real far.

I also never mentioned OKC once.  If you’re a team that has literally just ripped it’s whole roster apart and is starting from square one, then yeah this situation is a lot more manageable.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2021, 01:50:09 PM by greg683x »
Greg

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #23 on: July 17, 2021, 02:13:10 PM »

Offline bdm860

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5990
  • Tommy Points: 4593
OKC might do the Philly thing keep trading /drafting top four picks till you hit the best three.   I can’t remember all the top recruits Philly drafted and destroyed while tanking to finally land Simmons and Embiid and actually start playing ball.   At some point you realize that these guys are going to be paid and you can only keep 3-4 of them any significant length of time. You can draft 6 Lebrons , but you can only afford to keep 2-3 long term.
That's because there weren't any.  The Sixers only had 4 top four picks: Embiid, Okafor, Simmons  and Fultz during their tanking period.  They also drafted or acquired via draft day trades: Noel, Michael Carter Williams and Saric in the lottery during their tanking period. 

All of those players are still in the league.  Sixers didn't destroy any of them.  Note that Fultz screwed up his shot before he joined the Sixers.

Okafor and Noel?  Sixers certainly didn't do them any favors.

Both their values certainly went down drastically during their time with the Sixers, with both players asking for trades out of town, and the Sixers gettingt practically nothing for them.

Okafor, top 3 pick, All Rookie 1st team, gets traded for an expiring contract the team doesn't even want.  In only his 3rd season in the league, the Sixers aren't even playing him any more.

Noel, #6 pick, All Rookie 1st team, had his value up to where he was in trade discussions for the #3 pick (Jaylen Brown).  Waited and got a much lower level prospect (Justin Anderson), salary filler, and a couple of 2nd round picks.

Once on track for big paydays, neither guy has yet to sign a contract for more than $5m.  Sure not all on the Sixers, but they certainly weren't helped by them either.



After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #24 on: July 17, 2021, 02:31:27 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3667
  • Tommy Points: 586
I don't know if "having a lot of picks" is the ultimate for a GM.
 
Sure top 10 picks have plenty of value, but what I've seen usually is picks are window dressing  for the opposing GM in a tough trade.

"Hey, we got two first rounders!" Sure thing a 17 and a 23 whoop de do.

Look at the Celtics with 6 young guys on the bench who can't get minutes.

Presti has had better draft luck than anyone right? Be a question of whether he still has any left.

"Sam, how many Durants you got left in ya?"

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #25 on: July 17, 2021, 03:14:14 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8147
  • Tommy Points: 549
OKC might do the Philly thing keep trading /drafting top four picks till you hit the best three.   I can’t remember all the top recruits Philly drafted and destroyed while tanking to finally land Simmons and Embiid and actually start playing ball.   At some point you realize that these guys are going to be paid and you can only keep 3-4 of them any significant length of time. You can draft 6 Lebrons , but you can only afford to keep 2-3 long term.
That's because there weren't any.  The Sixers only had 4 top four picks: Embiid, Okafor, Simmons  and Fultz during their tanking period.  They also drafted or acquired via draft day trades: Noel, Michael Carter Williams and Saric in the lottery during their tanking period. 

All of those players are still in the league.  Sixers didn't destroy any of them.  Note that Fultz screwed up his shot before he joined the Sixers.

Okafor and Noel?  Sixers certainly didn't do them any favors.

Both their values certainly went down drastically during their time with the Sixers, with both players asking for trades out of town, and the Sixers gettingt practically nothing for them.

Okafor, top 3 pick, All Rookie 1st team, gets traded for an expiring contract the team doesn't even want.  In only his 3rd season in the league, the Sixers aren't even playing him any more.

Noel, #6 pick, All Rookie 1st team, had his value up to where he was in trade discussions for the #3 pick (Jaylen Brown).  Waited and got a much lower level prospect (Justin Anderson), salary filler, and a couple of 2nd round picks.

Once on track for big paydays, neither guy has yet to sign a contract for more than $5m.  Sure not all on the Sixers, but they certainly weren't helped by them either.
Okafor wasn't on track for a big payday.  His rookie season was very much a good numbers on a bad team situation.  He doesn't have the skillset for the modern game.  He also got injured at the end of his rookie season and the injury lingered throughout his 2nd season. 

The Sixers actually bumped Noel up to more than he was actually worth in many peoples' minds including his own.  The Mavs reportedly offered Noel a 4yr/70m deal but he stupidly turned it down. 

Okafor and Noel are the players that always were going to be regardless of which team drafted them.  The Sixers certainly didn't get much trade value for either player but I don't ever recall any significant trade rumors for either player at any time.  The Sixers were also hampered by Embiid not getting the proper foot surgery the first time and missing a 2nd year.  If Embiid gets injured again, the Sixers may have been the team offering Noel a 4yr/70M deal.   

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #26 on: July 17, 2021, 03:35:21 PM »

Online tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8147
  • Tommy Points: 549
I don't know if "having a lot of picks" is the ultimate for a GM.
 
Sure top 10 picks have plenty of value, but what I've seen usually is picks are window dressing  for the opposing GM in a tough trade.

"Hey, we got two first rounders!" Sure thing a 17 and a 23 whoop de do.

Look at the Celtics with 6 young guys on the bench who can't get minutes.

Presti has had better draft luck than anyone right? Be a question of whether he still has any left.

"Sam, how many Durants you got left in ya?"
Having a championship caliber team with a couple young superstars is the ultimate for a GM.
 
However having lots of 1st rounders is a very good thing.  The more picks you have the better chance that you'll draft players with star potential.  Obviously top picks are much better but there are plenty of good players who were drafted outside the top 10 and even quite a few stars.
Luck certainly plays a part but a lot of it is good player assessment given limited information and not being risk adverse. 

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #27 on: July 17, 2021, 03:54:11 PM »

Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15871
  • Tommy Points: 1393
OKC might do the Philly thing keep trading /drafting top four picks till you hit the best three.   I can’t remember all the top recruits Philly drafted and destroyed while tanking to finally land Simmons and Embiid and actually start playing ball.   At some point you realize that these guys are going to be paid and you can only keep 3-4 of them any significant length of time. You can draft 6 Lebrons , but you can only afford to keep 2-3 long term.
That's because there weren't any.  The Sixers only had 4 top four picks: Embiid, Okafor, Simmons  and Fultz during their tanking period.  They also drafted or acquired via draft day trades: Noel, Michael Carter Williams and Saric in the lottery during their tanking period. 

All of those players are still in the league.  Sixers didn't destroy any of them.  Note that Fultz screwed up his shot before he joined the Sixers.

I think it is fair to say the Sixers hurt Noel and Okafor's development (if we are ever going to say a team hurt a player's development at least). Also saying Okafor is still in the league is a pretty low bar. He is on a minimum contract and appeared in 27 games last year averaging 13 minutes for one of the worst teams in the league. He was their third string center behind plumlee and isiah stewart. That is absolutely awful for a 25 year old that was a number 3 pick in draft.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #28 on: July 17, 2021, 04:24:36 PM »

Offline celticsclay

  • Reggie Lewis
  • ***************
  • Posts: 15871
  • Tommy Points: 1393
OKC might do the Philly thing keep trading /drafting top four picks till you hit the best three.   I can’t remember all the top recruits Philly drafted and destroyed while tanking to finally land Simmons and Embiid and actually start playing ball.   At some point you realize that these guys are going to be paid and you can only keep 3-4 of them any significant length of time. You can draft 6 Lebrons , but you can only afford to keep 2-3 long term.
That's because there weren't any.  The Sixers only had 4 top four picks: Embiid, Okafor, Simmons  and Fultz during their tanking period.  They also drafted or acquired via draft day trades: Noel, Michael Carter Williams and Saric in the lottery during their tanking period. 

All of those players are still in the league.  Sixers didn't destroy any of them.  Note that Fultz screwed up his shot before he joined the Sixers.

I think it is fair to say the Sixers hurt Noel and Okafor's development (if we are ever going to say a team hurt a player's development at least). Also saying Okafor is still in the league is a pretty low bar. He is on a minimum contract and appeared in 27 games last year averaging 13 minutes for one of the worst teams in the league. He was their third string center behind plumlee and isiah stewart. That is absolutely awful for a 25 year old that was a number 3 pick in draft.

Adding some more on to this because this is such a ludicrous take. If we are going to say players are going to be who they are regardless of coaching, their teammates, training practices etc. Is the NBA and every other basketball league just wasting billions of dollars every year investing in developing players and development leagues?

Here are just a few of the ways that the 76ers could have impacted okafor and noel's development.

1) Impacting confidence. Players across every sport have talked about how not knowing role or having a consistent playing situation has impacted them on the field or court. While they weren't always healthy at the same time they had what were viewed as three starting quality NBA centers on their roster for a consistent period of time. Maybe guys that were young and had some confidence issues to begin with were impacted by this situation and tried less hard in practice. Tried less hard in the gym. Maybe they received less attention and reps from the coaching staff then they would have in a different situation. Does this matter for a superstar talent like Lebron. No. But I am sure it can make the difference between a young player developing into a servicable rotation player compared to a complete fringe nba player like Okafor has.

2) Playing time. Obviously every team in the NBA believes playing time helps young players develop. Okafor was receiving DNP coaching decisions as a 22 year old when Noel and Embid were healthy. This could certainly have hurt him and also can be connected back to number 1.

3) Mismanagement of injuries. The 76ers medical staff has kind of been a laughing stock of the NBA for years. Okafor had what was supposed to be a 6 week recovery from a knee injury and it was still bothering him over a year later. Did they botch the surgery? Was he misdiagnosed? This obviously could significantly hurt his development.

4) Coaching. A lot of people associated with the NBA say Pitino and to a lesser extent Carr really hurt Walkers development by just giving him free reign to launch threes. He got away from some of the incredible gifts he had as an interior player and driver and there were no repercussions. Okafor was allowed to just get his points and was not pulled for some completely horrible defensive play. In fact he was receiving accolades like all rookie first team because the team wanted to lose and was not pulling him for this kind of play. Perhaps if he is drafted by the Spurs (who I guess according to you just always magically get the guys that were going to turn out good) and pops says you are not going to play if you don't improve the effort defense he becomes at least a slightly above horrible defender. Maybe they force him to develop a three point shot.

5) Very limited/no veteran leadership. Here is a great story on why veterans are important from a few years back (it is also interesting that beasely has developed into a pretty good player)

Speaking of those two guys [Malik Beasley, Hernangomaez] actually, and we'll close on this: people have wondered why a guy like Mike Miller is still in the league, he basically hasn't played all season. And I gotta little window into that very early on; I got to the game [Nuggets @ Warriors on January 2nd] early, about 5 o'clock, for the 7:30 game. And there was a 3 on 3 game - Miller, Beasley, Hernangomez, Alonzo Gee, and then a couple of the Nuggets assistant coaches, I think Steven Graham was one of em... [he's a] former NBA player... and then another guy I didn't recognize. So they're playing 3 on 3 hard; they played for like 45 minutes, I caught the last 20 minutes of it. They had been playing full court for a time, then they had to switch to half court when some of the Warriors players came out to start shooting. Jauncho [Hernangomez] and Beasley were exhausted... and Mike Miller is sill running around, still in great shape, draining 3s for game point in this 3 on 3 game... ya know talking it up all the time, like, Gee is posting up on Beasley, he's got a size advantage, and he [Mike Miller] is telling Beasley "he's going right shoulder, he's going right shoulder." Just yelling, talking, teaching these guys about the game. Being a great vet. Then afterwards these guys are completely exhausted and Mike Miller's like "hey you guys wanna run some sprints with me?" [Nate chuckles] And makes these guys run sprints with him after they're already just like totally out of gas. And, ya know, they weren't gonna play and that's how you keep those guys in shape, keep their skills sharp, teach those guys on the end of the bench to work. And that's why Mike Miller is still around."

Okafor obviously had maturity issues. He got in a street fight in boston outside a bar in the wee hours. He was driving a 100mph on a bridge in philly. His conditioning did not seem very good early in his career. Maybe a mike miller on the team helps his development a little?

There is even more than this, but the idea that  a young player like Okafor and nba players in general are just who they are and cant be hampered by a situation, staff or coaching is behind ludicrous. Okafor is kind of a poster buy what if because he had so many of these things working against him. I don't think he was ever going to be a superstar but to say it was impossible for him to even have a servicable role player career if he developed in a different system is beyond ludicrous.

Re: Who is most likely getting stuck like Ainge did?
« Reply #29 on: July 17, 2021, 05:12:16 PM »

Offline bdm860

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5990
  • Tommy Points: 4593
I do wonder what the Sixers thoughts were when drafting Noel/Embiid/Okafor back-to-back-back.  I assume they thought competition is good, the cream will rise to the top, so we'll keep the best and just flip the others for even more assets.

Were they thinking it was going to be a James Harden in OKC situation?  Everybody will be able to get some shine, and we'll flip the odd one out for a decent enough haul?

They did successfully flip Michael Cater Williams at his peak, did they just think they'd be able to keep doing that?

How much did the mid-process regime change alter things?  Maybe Hinke could have gotten top dollar for those guys.

I do think OKC may potentially have the same problem, where they end up with nothing or pennies on the dollar for some guys simply because they have way too many of them.

Would love to see them go all in with all these picks and create an instant super team.  There's been rumors/speculation about Lillard, Zion, Beal, Simmons, KAT, Valančiūnas, Sabonis, Porzingis, Barnes, Jerami Grant, Siakam, Brogdon, Markkanen, etc.  Get 2-3 guys on the higher end of the star spectrum 1-2 on the lower end, instant contender.  They have the salaries and trade exceptions to pull off a lot of creative deals too.

After 18 months with their Bigs, the Littles were: 46% less likely to use illegal drugs, 27% less likely to use alcohol, 52% less likely to skip school, 37% less likely to skip a class