Better to be swept in Round 1 and pick #15... or have 9th best draft odds?

[jonaslopes]

Here comes the tankers-hinkies-liberty ballers...

[Vermont Green]

I have been going back and forth on this all season but at this point, I would rather they fall back, miss the playoffs, and get the better pick.  My caveat for that is that they continue to play well but the other teams (Ind, Byk, Cha), which are better teams right now, play a little better.

I  think the Celtics have shown enough by hanging in to establish that this team does have some realistic assets which is good.  I like that they have more in place than some of the really horrible teams.

I guess I am saying that I would rather be a team that has some half decent assets already, plays well, and gets a half decent draft pick than to be a truly bad team that basically barfed the season and will get a better pick (that is still nothing more than a crap shoot anyway).

I think there is potentially a difference in the player we get at 9 or 10 over 15 (potentially the key word here because nothing is for sure in drafting).  So a potential drafting benefit is better than really no benefit that I see from winning a couple more games and making the playoffs.  We are not going to be Atlanta and make this big leap next season as a result of making the playoffs.  We might make a big trade or sign some big FA that could turn us around but making the playoffs is not going to turn us around.  A slightly better draft pick may actually help in a trade or something, but by itself is not going to turn us around either.

We need to be patient.

[Eddie20]

It would be fun as a fan to make the playoffs, but that's about the only real benefit. I'm not buying the belief that 4 to 6 games vs the Hawks will impact our players development much, if at all. That said, I think all these playoff like regular season games, with us trying to simply make the playoffs, is great experience.

The available players at 10 vs 15 has a considerable drop off. Below is Chad Ford's top 20 as an approximation of who will be taken where. I definitely see a huge drop in talent after the #12 pick. So I answer the initial question by saying not making the playoffs, but having playoff like experience anyways, and selecting Turner, Oubre, or Johnson is much better than making the playoffs, simply for a few more games of experience, and coming away with Pope, Lyles, or Poeltl.

RK   PLAYER   NAME   AGE   POS   HT   WT   SCHOOL/COUNTRY   PROJECTION
1      Jahlil Okafor   19   C   6-11   275   Duke   Top 5 Pick
Mar 23 Update: Okafor has been No. 1 all year in our Top 100. ...more

2      Karl-Anthony Towns   19   C   6-11   250   Kentucky   Top 5 Pick
Mar 23 Update: Karl-Anthony Towns had one of the best games of his career ...more

3      Emmanuel Mudiay   19   PG   6-5   196   China   Top 5 Pick
Mar 11 Update: We went all-in on Mudiay last week. I wrote a feature ...more

4      D'Angelo Russell   19   PG   6-5   176   Ohio State   Top 5 Pick
Mar 23 Update: It was a tale of two very different games for Russell ...more

5      Kristaps Porzingis   19   PF   6-11   220   Latvia   Top 5 Pick
Mar 11 Update: Porzingis is averaging 11.6 PPG | 4.1 RPG | 46% 3FG ...more

6      Justise Winslow   18   SF   6-6   222   Duke   Top 10 Pick
Mar 23 Update: In the past five months we've had four different wings -- ...more

7      Kevon Looney   19   PF   6-10   210   UCLA   Top 10 Pick
Mar 23 Update: Looney suffered a facial fracture in the Pac 12 tournament and ...more

8      Willie Cauley-Stein   21   C   7-0   240   Kentucky   Top 10 Pick
Mar 23 Update: Cauley-Stein was quiet offensively, but had 11 rebounds and two blocks ...more

9      Mario Hezonja   20   SF   6-7   200   Croatia   Top 10 Pick
Mar 23 Update: And on a side note -- Mario Hezonja had zero points ...more

10      Myles Turner   19   PF   7-0   240   Texas   Top 10 Pick
Mar 23 Update: Turner's game against Butler was a mixed bag. He scored just ...more

11      Kelly Oubre   19   SF   6-7   204   Kansas   Lottery Pick
Mar 23 Update: Oubre didn't dominate either game. He was better on Friday against ...more

12      Stanley Johnson   18   SF   6-7   237   Arizona   Lottery Pick
Mar 23 Update:Johnson cleaned up against Texas Southern on Thursday, scoring 22 points and ...more

13      Frank Kaminsky   21   C   7-0   234   Wisconsin   Lottery Pick
Mar 23 Update: Kaminsky has moved into the discussion for a lottery pick and ...more

14      Bobby Portis   20   PF   6-11   231   Arkansas   Lottery Pick
Mar 23 Update: Portis had a very rough shooting tournament. He went 10-for-27 from ...more

15      Malik Pope   18   SF   6-10   205   San Diego State   Mid First Round Pick
Mar 23 Update: Pope was solid, but not spectacular in the tournament. His line ...more

16      Trey Lyles   19   PF   6-10   235   Kentucky   Mid-First Round Pick
Mar 23 Update: Trey Lyles has been one of Kentucky's strongest players over the ...more

17      Jakob Poeltl   19   C   7-0   230   Utah   Mid-First Round Pick
Mar 23 Update: Wright has been getting most of the accolades this year, but ...more

18      R.J. Hunter   21   SG   6-5   185   Georgia St   Mid-First Round Pick
Mar 23 Update:Hunter was the new march Madness darling on Thursday after his go ...more

19      Devin Booker   18   SG   6-6   195   Kentucky   Mid First Round Pick
Mar 23 Update:Devin Booker's shooting slump continues. He shot a combined 4-for-15 from the ...more

20      Kris Dunn   21   PG   6-3   180   Providence   Mid-First Round Pick
Mar 23 Update: The downside of Dunn was on full display against Dayton on ...more

[clover]

What are the best projections, for us, from 9-15? I'd consider that a major factor. Maybe even more so, the fact that odds don't tend to mean much in recent history.

I would look at that more as what are the best projections for what #9 plus an extra first will get you versus what#15 plus an extra first will get you. So, I'd be looking around #6-7 and #11.

At DraftExpress right now that would be a Stanley/Winslow or a Myles Turner. I have my doubts that Turner will still be there at 11, however.

[Eddie20]

What are the best projections, for us, from 9-15? I'd consider that a major factor. Maybe even more so, the fact that odds don't tend to mean much in recent history.

I would look at that more as what are the best projections for what #9 plus an extra first will get you versus what#15 plus an extra first will get you. So, I'd be looking around #6-7 and #11.

At DraftExpress right now that would be a Stanley/Winslow or a Myles Turner. I have my doubts that Turner will still be there at 11, however.

I wouldn't want to make any projections based on the assumption of us moving up in the draft because there is no certainty it. I'd rather simplify the argument into where we would realistically be selecting if we don't make the playoffs (9-12) vs making the playoffs (15-17) and then looking at the players available, based on various publications, in those said ranges.

[droopdog7]

Why are we setting up a scenerio where we assume a sweep?  I mean, in that case, why don't we also assume that whoever we draft at 9 will be a bust?

Anyway, leave it as it is. Make the playoffs or not and the pick.  No assumptions either way.

[saltlover]

Why are we setting up a scenerio where we assume a sweep?  I mean, in that case, why don't we also assume that whoever we draft at 9 will be a bust?

Obviously because we want people to select the conclusion that we agree with.  Push-polling has come to Celticsblog.

[loco_91]

Noticed that we were a half game above the team with the 9th best Draft odds.   We have the same amount of losses as them.

Let's lay the groundwork for this hypothetical. 

- Let's say that Utah, Boston, Charlotte, Indiana and Brooklyn all finished the season with 35 wins (they are all tied in the loss column right now with 40 losses).
- Let's just say that each of those teams is on a par with each other in terms of current roster quality (though I think most would admit Utah and Indiana have more potential heading forward)
- Let's say regardless of who the tiebreaker went to (Boston, Charlotte, Indiana or Brooklyn), the Hawks would crush them in Round 1.  I know the optimists always have faith in playoff miracles, but for the sake of argument let's pretend that we are certain a playoff appearance will lead to a sweep by Atlanta. 

So then... explain to me which of the following two scenarios is better:

Scenario #1 - Win the tie-breaker.  End up with the 8th seed.  Get swept in Round 1 by Atlanta.  End up missing out on a lotto pick and picking #15.

Scenario #2 - Lose the tie-breaker.   End up with the 9th best odds in the Lotto.

Again, let's pretend that a sweep in Round 1 is certain.  I'm genuinely wondering if a terrible playoff appearance + #15 outweighs missing the playoffs and having 9th best odds. 

Last year, the team with the 9th best odds ended up winning the lottery.  Doubtful it happens two years in a row, but it's interesting.     

Which is a better Scenario? 

Some will argue that playoff experience, regardless of the quality of the experience, is very beneficial.   I could see it having a mild impact on the trade values of our players.     

Some would argue that there's not a ton of difference between #9 and #15.

Others will argue that #15 + #26 wouldn't get you a Top 10 pick in this draft... and that having the #9 pick, based on the draft tiers, would be far more valuable than having the #15... so much so that it outweighs a pointless playoff exercise. 

Curious what everyone thinks.

To me this is a very easy question. It just doesn't say much about a team if you win a 4-way tiebreak to get into the playoffs - it just isn't an accomplishment, and it isn't something that this team has earned. On the other hand, it makes a BIG difference in terms of the value of our pick. I think there is a pretty significant dropoff in the draft after the top 12, and I doubt we will be able to trade up without giving up more than just the Clips pick.

[D.o.s.]

Why are we setting up a scenerio where we assume a sweep?  I mean, in that case, why don't we also assume that whoever we draft at 9 will be a bust?

Obviously because we want people to select the conclusion that we agree with.  Push-polling has come to Celticsblog.

[bknova]

9th best draft odds. 
In this rebuild, we must always have a lotto ticket.  Next few years we have Brooklyn's ticket.  We can go the playoffs then.

[oldutican]

From what I gather from numerous mocks, 9 would definitely yield one of these wings: Hezonja, Winslow, Johnson, Looney or Oubre. Being at 9 also makes a jump up a few slots for WCS very doable. My semi-informed opinion sees Hezonja or Winslow as perfect fits for Celts on the wing and potential stars. With a number of centers on the FA market, getting a talented wing in the draft is very appealing.

Consensus on this draft really drops off when you get past the first 10-12 picks, which implies guys there are major hit or miss.

So as I've been doing, I can't help but root for the Celts in each game, but I do so with the great comfort of knowing they are better off losing.

[Evantime34]

Every time the C's lost I think it would be nice to have the 9th pick instead of making the playoffs.

Every time they win, I think it is great watching this team play hard win and gain valuable experience playing the right way.

Honestly I try not to take too strong a stance either way, because if I do and things go the other way I will be left disappointed.

[slamtheking]

Loaded question designed to get as many pro-lottery responses as possible.

reality is there's no guarantee C's get swept although losing the series is pretty likely.  no guarantee that when the C's finish the season, they end up worse than everyone else with a similar record currently. 

better question to ask to get a better line on how people lean on this is issue is:
would you prefer a likely first round loss in the playoffs (sweep or not) and the #15 pick or just missing the playoffs and getting the #11 or 12 pick (C's end up 9th or 10th in East)?

I think in that more realistic scenario, a number of people selecting the #9 pick would slide over to the playoffs option.
while this team will end the season with a losing record and will provide a proverbial black eye for the league to have a losing record in the postseason, since the end of the trades, this team has had a winning record.  I still consider it a team of bench players with no bonafide starters but they're definitely winning and playing competive ball

[Celtics4ever]

Every time the C's lost I think it would be nice to have the 9th pick instead of making the playoffs.

Every time they win, I think it is great watching this team play hard win and gain valuable experience playing the right way.

I find once the games start I can't root for us to loose.

[Eddie20]

Loaded question designed to get as many pro-lottery responses as possible.

reality is there's no guarantee C's get swept although losing the series is pretty likely.  no guarantee that when the C's finish the season, they end up worse than everyone else with a similar record currently. 

better question to ask to get a better line on how people lean on this is issue is:
would you prefer a likely first round loss in the playoffs (sweep or not) and the #15 pick or just missing the playoffs and getting the #11 or 12 pick (C's end up 9th or 10th in East)?

I think in that more realistic scenario, a number of people selecting the #9 pick would slide over to the playoffs option.
while this team will end the season with a losing record and will provide a proverbial black eye for the league to have a losing record in the postseason, since the end of the trades, this team has had a winning record.  I still consider it a team of bench players with no bonafide starters but they're definitely winning and playing competive ball

Can't say I completely disagree with many of your points. That said, pick #11 or #12 and no playoff experience is better for our future than #15 and playoff experience because of the drop off in talent. Now, that drop off comes after #12, but it could change dependent on players not declaring. So if say 3 players don't declare, then the drop off is after pick #9, so I'd rather make the playoffs since I would then be of the mindset that the talent level is more or less the same in either spot.