If Boston didn't take Brown where do you think he would have gone?

[Eja117]

Sometimes questions like this make me think of Bill Belichick when he was like "There's a million different ways it could have happened and only one way that did and that's the way we choose to focus on."

Where do I think he would have gone? I think he would have gone back to his seat and would have written "Boston" on his enemies/revenge list

[MikeJelly]

Man, I gotta tell ya, I completely wanted Brown and I'm super happy with the fact we did take him. But man if the initial poster's idea actually went down and we got Noel AND Brown, that would be absolutely insane.

IT/AB/Crowder/Horford/Noel
Rozier/Smart/Brown/Amir/KO

Reserves: Covington, JJ, Hunter

Man that would've been nice. I'm still all for trading for Noel. I'd love to see him learn under Amir and Horford.

[jpotter33]

It still does irk me that we didn't try and get Chriss with the 8 pick from Sacramento, though. We certainly had the assets to get him for what Phoenix got him for, and I'd much rather have Chriss than Yabu and Zizic.

We would've legitimately been set at the forward position from here on out. Hell, if we can luck out and get someone like Giles next summer, we would've had an entire starting five that would fit really well together and start a Boston dynasty for the next decade - Rozier, Smart, Brown, Chriss, and Giles?! Holy hell that would've been one hell of a young, dominant core.

[LarBrd33]

This is where Lord Ford's Word-of-God Draft Tiers come into play.  The players in the 3-8 range were pretty consistently portrayed as interchangeable prospects who were unlikely to become stars.  Had Marquese Chriss gone 3rd and Brown went 8th, I don't think anyone would have been any more surprised than they were to see Brown go 3rd and Chriss go 8th. 

That's why it was funny to me that the same media personalities that hammered home the point that 3-8 were interchangeable were the same media personalities that were saying Philly couldn't get a top 5 pick for Okafor but could presumably get a pick 6-8 for him.  If 8 was the same quality level as 3, what difference did it make?   Anyways...

[Ilikesports17]

This is where Lord Ford's Word-of-God Draft Tiers come into play.  The players in the 3-8 range were pretty consistently portrayed as interchangeable prospects who were unlikely to become stars.  Had Marquese Chriss gone 3rd and Brown went 8th, I don't think anyone would have been any more surprised than they were to see Brown go 3rd and Chriss go 8th. 

That's why it was funny to me that the same media personalities that hammered home the point that 3-8 were interchangeable were the same media personalities that were saying Philly couldn't get a top 5 pick for Okafor but could presumably get a pick 6-8 for him.  If 8 was the same quality level as 3, what difference did it make?   Anyways...

I agree prospects 3-8 were very close to each other in terms of consensus ratings. To make it easy lets rank them out of 100. Lets say that you ask a 100 scouts and each player recieves a consensus rating of 80. So 3 and 8 are both 80s so who cares? whats the difference? well the difference is that Boston might have Brown as a 90 and Murray as a 70 and the other guys as 80s. So if they are sitting at 3, they are guaranteed a 90, if they are 7 they know theyll get an 80 and pick #8 could end up with a 70. Thats why the #3 pick still has way more value than the #8 pick.

I think its entirely possible that those Okafor rumors could have been true in the sense that each team had a binkie or two in the 3-8 range that they valued above Okafor and then the other guys they had below Okafor. As such the farther you get from #3 the less sense it makes to gamble on your binkie falling.

Overall I was surprised to see how cheap the 8th pick went. I would have been absolutely furious if thats the haul we got for the 3rd pick.

[ThaPreacher]

I'm fine with Brown at #3.  The question is, should we have made a move up to #8 to draft Chriss?  Looks like Ainge wasn't a big enough fan or didn't have the assets wanted.

Let's look at the #8 trade for Marquese Chriss again.

Phoenix sends picks #13, #28, a 2020 2nd round pick and the rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic (former #27 pick) for pick #8.

Celtics could have offered pick #16, pick #23, and filler (a 2nd rounder, Chris Young or RJ Hunter).  If you are the Kings which offer do you prefer.  Was there even a discussion with the Celtics?

I think  Chriss  could  have been had.  Jaylen Brown might be a great pick, if he improve his shooting.  I think we should be patient, before evaluating Zizic. I think the kid can play.  However, I look at Chriss like the Myles Turner/Bobby Portis of this draft.

 We will watch Chriss and say "Ah why couldn't have Danny taken him!"

[PhoSita]

If the Celts had taken Dunn, I imagine Phoenix, Minnesota, or Denver would've taken Brown.


As for the Chriss thing, I'm not sure when he'd have ever gotten playing time on the Celts. If Mickey is having trouble breaking into the rotation, I can only imagine that Chriss would've been D League bound for most of his rookie contract. 

Plus, it was obvious that Ainge was really keen on not adding more than one guaranteed rookie deal this year. The other guys selected in the first round had to be stashes. That's why he reached for Yabu.

[Tr1boy]

If the Celts had taken Dunn, I imagine Phoenix, Minnesota, or Denver would've taken Brown.


As for the Chriss thing, I'm not sure when he'd have ever gotten playing time on the Celts. If Mickey is having trouble breaking into the rotation, I can only imagine that Chriss would've been D League bound for most of his rookie contract. 

Plus, it was obvious that Ainge was really keen on not adding more than one guaranteed rookie deal this year. The other guys selected in the first round had to be stashes. That's why he reached for Yabu.

Chris likely will never be a good team player. Kind of like a gerald green. But after years in the league be an adequate one.  His bread and butter will be one on one ball. Spectacular plays due to his elite combination of size, strength, explosiveness and good basketball skills

Brown is a little shorter but a better "team" player on both ends

[kraidstar]

This is where Lord Ford's Word-of-God Draft Tiers come into play.  The players in the 3-8 range were pretty consistently portrayed as interchangeable prospects who were unlikely to become stars.  Had Marquese Chriss gone 3rd and Brown went 8th, I don't think anyone would have been any more surprised than they were to see Brown go 3rd and Chriss go 8th. 

That's why it was funny to me that the same media personalities that hammered home the point that 3-8 were interchangeable were the same media personalities that were saying Philly couldn't get a top 5 pick for Okafor but could presumably get a pick 6-8 for him.  If 8 was the same quality level as 3, what difference did it make?   Anyways...

I agree prospects 3-8 were very close to each other in terms of consensus ratings. To make it easy lets rank them out of 100. Lets say that you ask a 100 scouts and each player recieves a consensus rating of 80. So 3 and 8 are both 80s so who cares? whats the difference? well the difference is that Boston might have Brown as a 90 and Murray as a 70 and the other guys as 80s. So if they are sitting at 3, they are guaranteed a 90, if they are 7 they know theyll get an 80 and pick #8 could end up with a 70. Thats why the #3 pick still has way more value than the #8 pick.

I think its entirely possible that those Okafor rumors could have been true in the sense that each team had a binkie or two in the 3-8 range that they valued above Okafor and then the other guys they had below Okafor. As such the farther you get from #3 the less sense it makes to gamble on your binkie falling.

Overall I was surprised to see how cheap the 8th pick went. I would have been absolutely furious if thats the haul we got for the 3rd pick.

TP

These players will almost certainly not be equal value when we reevaluate the draft years later. GMs and scouts are paid for their ability to recognize talent in these situations.

Everyone has their binkies (hinkies?) in the draft, and also guys they don't like. I doubt they care much about "consensus" by talking heads and bloggers. Good GMs will find the better players more often than not, and they know it.

They also can't be sure what player another team behind them in the draft might want. There is zero reason for teams to tip their hands.

If a club thinks their binky has double the chance of becoming a star as another guy in that #3-#8 range then they'll do everything in their power to get that guy.

Just look at the polarizing nature of Dragan Bender. Some folks on this board wouldn't have taken him at #17, let alone at #3. Others wanted him desperately. I'd imagine GMs had similarly differing views. The Suns apparently loved him. So #4 was perfect for them, too valuable to risk trading down.

[BlastFromThePast]

I think the earliest Brown would have been selected is when Denver picked.  More likely at whatever pick # Sacramento was at.

He has many flaws in his game, most of which can be corrected, but it's not clear at all from having watched all of the C's Summer League games that he will learn not to barrel into the lane where a crowd of defenders are waiting.  He was bailed out on multiple occasions by the refs.  He's been doing the same thing since HS, then at Cal the 1 year he attended and he's still doing it.  It can't be excused, or rather rationalized, that it was simply that he didn't get good coaching or no coaching at all to stop doing that. 

The jury is still out, AFAIC, whether he will make the leap to be even an adequate starter until he learns he won't be able to get away with that kid of play at the NBA level...unless he changes his name to Lebron James.

[celticsclay]

This is where Lord Ford's Word-of-God Draft Tiers come into play.  The players in the 3-8 range were pretty consistently portrayed as interchangeable prospects who were unlikely to become stars.  Had Marquese Chriss gone 3rd and Brown went 8th, I don't think anyone would have been any more surprised than they were to see Brown go 3rd and Chriss go 8th. 

That's why it was funny to me that the same media personalities that hammered home the point that 3-8 were interchangeable were the same media personalities that were saying Philly couldn't get a top 5 pick for Okafor but could presumably get a pick 6-8 for him.  If 8 was the same quality level as 3, what difference did it make?   Anyways...

it's funny cause nobody said that. At a minimum it was top 6, some say they couldn't even get too 8. Presumably they didn't ask for lower

[Surferdad]

If the Celts had taken Dunn, I imagine Phoenix, Minnesota, or Denver would've taken Brown.


As for the Chriss thing, I'm not sure when he'd have ever gotten playing time on the Celts. If Mickey is having trouble breaking into the rotation, I can only imagine that Chriss would've been D League bound for most of his rookie contract. 

Plus, it was obvious that Ainge was really keen on not adding more than one guaranteed rookie deal this year. The other guys selected in the first round had to be stashes. That's why he reached for Yabu.

Maybe because Chriss is better than Mickey.

[jpotter33]

If the Celts had taken Dunn, I imagine Phoenix, Minnesota, or Denver would've taken Brown.


As for the Chriss thing, I'm not sure when he'd have ever gotten playing time on the Celts. If Mickey is having trouble breaking into the rotation, I can only imagine that Chriss would've been D League bound for most of his rookie contract. 

Plus, it was obvious that Ainge was really keen on not adding more than one guaranteed rookie deal this year. The other guys selected in the first round had to be stashes. That's why he reached for Yabu.

Maybe because Chriss is better than Mickey.

Yeah, I agree. His potential is much higher than Mickey's with better size and athleticism. He'd probably spend most of this year in the D-league, but he's probably about as ready as Jaylen is to contribute to the team. We just have less of a need for him at the 4 and 5 spot than we do at the 3.

[BitterJim]

It still does irk me that we didn't try and get Chriss with the 8 pick from Sacramento, though. We certainly had the assets to get him for what Phoenix got him for, and I'd much rather have Chriss than Yabu and Zizic.

We would've legitimately been set at the forward position from here on out. Hell, if we can luck out and get someone like Giles next summer, we would've had an entire starting five that would fit really well together and start a Boston dynasty for the next decade - Rozier, Smart, Brown, Chriss, and Giles?! Holy hell that would've been one hell of a young, dominant core.

I'm sure that Danny DID try to get Chriss, but it seems like he didn't have the ammo. 

The Kings wanted Papagiannis, and it's doubtful that he would have been on the board long enough for them to take him at #16.  Add in the fact that Bogdanovic and the #28 were more valuable than the #23 pick, and it's easy to see why the Kings took that deal.  Without offering a future pick (or having a deal in place to get a pick where Pappagiannis would be available), there's no way Danny could have beaten that offer

The difference between #16 and #13 is just way bigger than the difference between #28 and #23, never mind if you throw in Bogdanovic

[Celtics4ever]

I was just glad we did not take Bender.