The importance of Rondo's return tomorrow can not be overstated. This will be a pivotal moment in Boston Celtics history. I do not know what is going to happen from here on out. What I say in this post will be almost entirely speculation based on my perception of the events leading up to Rondo's return. What I can say with complete certainty, however, is that regardless of what happens from here on out... we will look back on this moment and wonder
"What If?".
Side note: In the interest if fairness, I first must admit that I went into this season with the strong opinion that Boston was tanking. I saw them as a 24-36 win team. I figured Rondo's trade was inevitable. Naturally, those beliefs have unquestionably given me a bias and clouded my view of the season. Second, I have to admit that Rajon Rondo is my favorite player on the Boston Celtics. What I say is not some ultimatum against my favorite player. I'm not a masochist. This is just how I see it. #1 - The Boston Celtics are a bad team without Rajon Rondo. Disputing this is an act of denial. We have the 5th worst record in the NBA. We are on pace to win 28 games. That's right on track with what the majority expected heading into this season. 24-36 wins.
#2 - Danny Ainge has shown little-to-no interest in competing this season. We gave up our 2nd and 3rd best players for future considerations... they are now in Brooklyn holding onto a playoff seed. We gave up a 2nd rounder just to get someone to take Courtney Lee off our hands. A pure salary dump. Lee was the most efficient scorer on Boston and is averaging 15 points for his new team. We also recently dumped our default starting PG and a marginal young asset for future considerations. It's widely believed Ainge has been looking to dump Brandon Bass' salary as well. These are not actions of a team trying to "win now". These are actions of a team looking to win later.
#3 - Rajon Rondo's return, while exciting, will not make us good. We will not suddenly be transformed from 28 win bottom-feeder to 50 win world-beater. We could theoretically go .500 from here on out under Rondo's leadership... 21-21. We'd finish the season with 35 wins... which is right within the 25-36 win range everyone expected.
#4 - Winning 35 games this year would get you the 7th or 8th seed in the playoffs... the #15 or #16 pick in the draft. Making noise in the playoffs is extremely unlikely.
#5 - If the season ended today, we'd have a 90% chance at landing a Top 6 pick in a draft where the top 6 players are thought to be exceptional: Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, Joel Embiid, Dante Exum, Julius Randle. All of them are under 20 years old. There are some who are so high on this draft that they believe every one of those
teenagers will have a better career than 28 year old Rajon Rondo. This is something worth debating.
#6 - Rumors have persisted for years that Ainge has shopped Rondo. These rumors only gained steam this year. Conventional thinking heading into the season was that Rondo would inevitably be traded. On the verge of Rondo's return, speculation continues:
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/rumor-nba-circles-believe-boston-celtics-trade-rajon-164100707--nba.html ...
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1924259-boston-celtics-have-one-more-point-guard-to-trade-with-rajon-rondo-deal#7 - The Celtics now have 16 games until the trade deadline. That should be enough time for Rondo to prove he is healthy. Admittedly, I thought Rondo would be gone months ago. Ainge has never been one to sell low. In retrospect, trading an injured Rajon Rondo never made a lot of sense. For what it's worth, the majority of sports pundits believed we would wait until Rondo returned from injury before making a move.
#8 - The two recent trades by Boston, while minor and geared towards the future, have also given us the added bonus of opening up two roster spots. I would be absolutely shocked to see us sign someone beyond a 10 day contract to fill out those spots. Having those two open roster spots at the trade deadline would open up the possibility for a 5-for-3 trade (see below). It gives you flexibility whether or not you intend to make a move.
#9 - I still say pretty much anything can happen. It's possible everything clicks. It's possible Ainge packages Humph + Sully + our 2014 picks for a star like Melo or Josh Smith. It's possible Rondo remains a Celtic for life. I've been saying the possibility of him being traded is 50/50... but at this moment, I think it's more like 70/30. I believe Ainge will be having conversations this month about Rondo.
I believe Rajon Rondo will be traded.This, of course, represents a splinter in time. Two paths. Two alternate realities. The Boston Celtics have reached a crossroads. Either they hang onto Rondo, add some help and go for it... or they follow through with the plan Ainge has seemingly been laying out all year. All the pieces of the puzzle seem in place.
If you put yourself in Danny's shoes, the big picture question you should be asking yourself right now... is how important is it to maintain that draft position? A Rondo-less Celtic team is clearly a league bottom-feeder. Say, for instance, that you are one of those folks who believes the Top 6 players in this draft have a brighter future than Rajon Rondo. Presuming you can get assets for Rondo now, what logical reason would you have to NOT trade Rondo and maintain your draft position? Presuming you can dump cap space and maximize flexibility heading forward... why wouldn't you trade him? You could likely utilize Rondo to dump some bad money like Wallace and Bass. You likely could get a couple prospects and additional picks that could pan out as well. Rondo will be a free agent after next year and could leave you hanging... trading Rondo now may in-fact be the least risky move.
The kind of trade I'd expect to see would be one that dumped the contracts of Wallace and Bass. We also have two open roster spots, so a 5-for-3 deal seems plausible. Someone suggested this Jazz trade in another thread:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=m55qjo7 Rondo+Bass+Wallace for Jefferson+Biedrins (expiring), 3 prospects and presumably picks.
I contend that the Pistons and Bobcats make the most sense. The Bobcats seem hell-bent on making the playoffs prior to their re-branding next year as the Hornets. SOmething along the lines of this makes sense to me:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=lh4z8kk Rondo+Bass+Wallace for Gordon+Sessions (expiring), 3 prospects and presumably picks.
The Pistons have shown public interest in Rondo all year. This was the best I could come up with in the trade machine:
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=myv3568 ... Rondo+Bass+Wallace for CharlieV+Stuckey (expiring), 3 young players and presumably picks. This trade makes less sense, because Monroe is a RFA and not still on his rookie deal after this season. There's also a possible Kings trade in there somewhere (something involving Ben McLemore and picks), but they dont' really have the expiring contracts aspect.
Again... this is just my perception of the events and speculation. It's certainly possible Rondo stays. It's certainly possible a Rondo trade would look dramatically different than what I came up with in the silly trade machine. I'm just saying that this is how I see it. I think the team will put on a happy public persona... everyone will say all the right things.... we will celebrate the return of Rajon... and ultimately (if he proves he is healthy), he's gone next month.
I'd welcome the Cinderella alternative. I'd welcome some shocking blockbuster acquisition of a star running mate next to Rondo. But I think smart money is on a Rondo trade being the move here.
I do think (presuming Rondo is healthy) the option will absolutely be there for Ainge. Whether or not he does it... I don't know. FWIW, I've seen Ainge make controversial trades following 5 game win streaks... I don't think some marginal success over the next couple weeks will sway his "big picture" thought process here.
Whatever DOES end up happening... I think we'll look back on Rondo's return and wonder how things might have been different for the Celtics from 2015-2025 had we swung in one direction or the other. If this draft ends up a bust and we keep Rondo, it will be impossible not to think of the bullet we dodged. If this draft ends up epic and we ride Rondo to mediocrity, it will be impossible not to express frustration over the blown opportunity. If Ainge follows through on the plan he seems to be laying out and we land our Superstar, it will be impossible not to think back on how badly we almost blew it by hanging onto Rondo. Should be interesting.
