I don't know what Brad's thought process is, but if I had to guess as to why he stayed put, my guesses would be:
1. value for money given the luxury tax's multiplicative impact, especially for those lower value players in the $5-$15m range to fill the end of bench role
2. timing - at the time the TPE expired, both Timelord and Gallo were healthy. Our active rotation was deep
3. rather than pre-empt anything, wait to see what needs arise during the season and make a move then
I think the Brad's main reasoning with letting the TPE expire comes down to value for money. It's one thing to go over the luxury tax to sign a quality player like Brogdon, or to extend a guy like Jaylen or Tatum. I don't think Wyc would bat an eyelid with those things. It's the fact that when you are already over the luxury tax, the multiplicative effect of it makes a player cost 2-3x more. So it's harder to internally justify those $5-$15m guys who may end up costing $20-$60m. My guess is that is why Brad decided to let the $17m TPE expire. I'm sure he's tasked to win, but he probably also feels he has a fiduciary responsibility to spend the organization's money wisely. It's enough of a challenge to find a guy within the $5-$15m range that is worth the money given who was available at the time, let alone having that player end up costing the equivalent of a max contract.
Now would Wyc have put the kibosh on using the TPE to sign a guy like Myles Turner, who has a cap hit of $18m and would have an ultimate payroll cost of $72m? (Let's assume he's available.) Probably not, but with our roster healthy, where would we carve his minutes out of? Obviously hindsight being 20/20 he would be very useful now, but what happens when Timelord comes back?
So the type of player we're looking for is really a supersub type guy, an Aron Baynes or Daniel Theis who is perfectly serviceable being subbed in, certainly not as good as Timelord but a lot better than Vonleh or Kornet, but at the same time has no issue with sitting. Maybe a Bitadze who is at $5m. Maybe we could even stretch and get a Poeltl for $10m. But with being over the luxury tax, Bitadze ends up costing $20m, the same as Smart, and Poeltl ends up at $40m, more than Jayson Tatum. For a guy that might play 10m or less when Timelord gets back? I think that's the equation that goes through Brad's head. I don't think Wyc would intervene to stop him if he really felt it was worth it, but it's one of those "you have the authority to do what you think is right, but God help you if you are wrong" type decisions
Then if we look at the timing of events:
Jul 9 - Brogdon trade
Jul 10 - Gallo signing
July 18 - expiration of $17m TPE
Sep 2 - Gallo injury
Sep 21 - Timelord surgery, expected to be out 4-6 weeks
Oct 18 - Timelord return expected to be delayed to Jan-Feb
Finally, it's early in the season. I know things don't look good after 5 games, but I don't think Brad or the organization will be slitting wrists just yet. They have plenty of time to make a move if things continue to go south. Nobody wants to tempt fate, but if you look at us last year, we were 2-3, we had given up 138, 115, 97, 129 and 116. By the end of November we were 11-21. We all know where we ended. Not to say that history will repeat itself, but a lot of these moves Brad didn't make, other than using the TPE which is gone, can be addressed.
We can trade for a big if we need to, we still have the same trade assets we did this time a week ago, when we were 3-0 and everyone was calm, if a bit concerned at the amount of points we were giving up. I posted an thread earlier looking at our defense and even though it's a small sample size, there's some early evidence to suggest that another big would help because our small ball lineup with Horford at the 5 and White in the backcourt is giving up a lot more points than we would like. But it could have just as easily have been Jaylen missing time instead of Timelord and we would now be castigating Brad for not signing another wing.
So while losing 2 games sucks and my thread on our defense sucking may have been over reactionary, I'm not too worried (being over reactionary is being part of a fan
). It's early in the season and Brad should be able to course correct, with an easier sell for going deeper into the luxury tax because there's a clearer need now than there was a few months ago. I wouldn't be surprised to see him use the $6.9m Hernangomez TPE and the $5.9m Schroder TPE before the trade deadline, if the right deal comes up
Topic: Indefensible Decisions By Brad Stevens (Read 15867 times)