NBA Season 2022-23

[Moranis]

I'm splitting the difference between the two because I think the stats are too noisy to bear this out one way or the other thus far, but I would like to point out that the true best player on the Celtics, The Great Forehead, is currently sitting at a .618 TS% and a 4.5:1 A:T ratio.

And White's on/off differential per 100 possessions is +12.7 only Hauser has been better, but White has played more than 150 more minutes than Hauser. 

Tatum is +7.4.  Grant is +1.3.  The only other guys that are positive are Vonleh (+3) and Kornet (+2.2).  Not unsurprisingly all 5 of those guys are near perfect fits next to Tatum.  I think Boston should absolutely play more White, Hauser, Tatum, Grant, and 1 big guy sets.  I think the offense would just destroy teams and it would still be solid defensively.  Boston is at its best when it plays to Tatum's strengths and that isn't really Brown.  He takes up the same place on the floor as Tatum.  The offense goes much more into a your turn my turn type offense, which isn't when Boston is at its best.  Tatum needs guys that can shoot and space the floor and give him room to work and that don't need the ball themselves. 

[nickagneta]

Some passing stats for the Celtics.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=1610612738&dir=D&sort=SECONDARY_AST

Some interesting ones regarding Brown. Even though he is only 0.1 APG away from being 5th on the team in APG, he is tied for 3rd on the team in secondary APG(only 0.1 less than Tatum) and is tied for 3rd in potential APG at 6.4.

If you look at the conversion rate of assists/potential assists, Jaylen's at just 52% is one of the worst on the team with most of the other players being in the 55%-60% area. That means, he's had some bad luck picking up assists because guys aren't hitting shots as frequently as passes from other players.

Also, Jaylen is generating an extra 9.1 points per game with his assists. You add that to his PPG numbers and the fact he's making 37 passes a game and it's pretty difficult to say that he is somehow a drag on this team.

Admittedly, his turnovers hurt but how much? If he averaged only 2.4TOs a game rather than 3.4TOs, would we be complaining about his TOs hurting the team any more than anyone else? On a team that's one of the best in the league at taking care of the ball(4th at 13.4TO/game) and one of the best at not giving up points off turnovers(5th at 15.8 PPG)? How much does that 1 TO/game get converted to points and how much is it truly hurting the team when the team averages only giving up 1.1 points per turnover?

[Roy H.]

Some passing stats for the Celtics.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=1610612738&dir=D&sort=SECONDARY_AST

Some interesting ones regarding Brown. Even though he is only 0.1 APG away from being 5th on the team in APG, he is tied for 3rd on the team in secondary APG(only 0.1 less than Tatum) and is tied for 3rd in potential APG at 6.4.

If you look at the conversion rate of assists/potential assists, Jaylen's at just 52% is one of the worst on the team with most of the other players being in the 55%-60% area. That means, he's had some bad luck picking up assists because guys aren't hitting shots as frequently as passes from other players.

Also, Jaylen is generating an extra 9.1 points per game with his assists. You add that to his PPG numbers and the fact he's making 37 passes a game and it's pretty difficult to say that he is somehow a drag on this team.

Admittedly, his turnovers hurt but how much? If he averaged only 2.4TOs a game rather than 3.4TOs, would we be complaining about his TOs hurting the team any more than anyone else? On a team that's one of the best in the league at taking care of the ball(4th at 13.4TO/game) and one of the best at not giving up points off turnovers(5th at 15.8 PPG)? How much does that 1 TO/game get converted to points and how much is it truly hurting the team when the team averages only giving up 1.1 points per turnover?

I tend to agree with you.  Regarding secondary assists, though, how much of the inability to convert those passes into buckets is do to the ball not being precisely on target, compared to other guys?  A pass can still lead to an assist opportunity, while not necessarily being in good position.

I've got no idea about that.  I assume NBA teams track that stuff, but I haven't seen any publicly available data on pass accuracy.

[nickagneta]

Some passing stats for the Celtics.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=1610612738&dir=D&sort=SECONDARY_AST

Some interesting ones regarding Brown. Even though he is only 0.1 APG away from being 5th on the team in APG, he is tied for 3rd on the team in secondary APG(only 0.1 less than Tatum) and is tied for 3rd in potential APG at 6.4.

If you look at the conversion rate of assists/potential assists, Jaylen's at just 52% is one of the worst on the team with most of the other players being in the 55%-60% area. That means, he's had some bad luck picking up assists because guys aren't hitting shots as frequently as passes from other players.

Also, Jaylen is generating an extra 9.1 points per game with his assists. You add that to his PPG numbers and the fact he's making 37 passes a game and it's pretty difficult to say that he is somehow a drag on this team.

Admittedly, his turnovers hurt but how much? If he averaged only 2.4TOs a game rather than 3.4TOs, would we be complaining about his TOs hurting the team any more than anyone else? On a team that's one of the best in the league at taking care of the ball(4th at 13.4TO/game) and one of the best at not giving up points off turnovers(5th at 15.8 PPG)? How much does that 1 TO/game get converted to points and how much is it truly hurting the team when the team averages only giving up 1.1 points per turnover?

I tend to agree with you.  Regarding secondary assists, though, how much of the inability to convert those passes into buckets is do to the ball not being precisely on target, compared to other guys?  A pass can still lead to an assist opportunity, while not necessarily being in good position.

I've got no idea about that.  I assume NBA teams track that stuff, but I haven't seen any publicly available data on pass accuracy.

Anecdotally, I've been mentioning in the game threads Jaylen's bad luck on converted assists for a couple weeks now. There was one game where players missed 7-8 WIDE OPEN shots, like nowhere within 6', on Jaylen potential assists. That's happened a bunch lately. So, maybe instead of where the pass is received one should look at how wide open of a shot it created?

Jaylen is a drive and kicker and my guess(also judging by the points created per assist) is most of his assists and potential assists are from three point shots. THAT, the drive and kick for threes and making threes, is one of the most important aspects of this team having such a historic offensive start to the season. Not having JB and his gravity to attract attention when he drives to create space for the players he kicks to and gravity to open spaces for others when he is off ball, is something people don't consider about his game.

If Jaylen is out a few games, the team will pick up the slack, but if Brown leaves after next season and can't be adequately replaced, this offense and team will suffer greatly as opposing defenses will adjust to the Celtics not having that elite 2nd offensive weapon on the court. Something to think about because JB is a top 12-13 scorer in the league and would probably be the leading scorer on 20 other teams in this league.

Also, secondary assists are hockey assists. I think you meant potential assists, no?

[Roy H.]

Also, secondary assists are hockey assists. I think you meant potential assists, no?

I did, thank you.

[slamtheking]

Some passing stats for the Celtics.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=1610612738&dir=D&sort=SECONDARY_AST

Some interesting ones regarding Brown. Even though he is only 0.1 APG away from being 5th on the team in APG, he is tied for 3rd on the team in secondary APG(only 0.1 less than Tatum) and is tied for 3rd in potential APG at 6.4.

If you look at the conversion rate of assists/potential assists, Jaylen's at just 52% is one of the worst on the team with most of the other players being in the 55%-60% area. That means, he's had some bad luck picking up assists because guys aren't hitting shots as frequently as passes from other players.

Also, Jaylen is generating an extra 9.1 points per game with his assists. You add that to his PPG numbers and the fact he's making 37 passes a game and it's pretty difficult to say that he is somehow a drag on this team.

Admittedly, his turnovers hurt but how much? If he averaged only 2.4TOs a game rather than 3.4TOs, would we be complaining about his TOs hurting the team any more than anyone else? On a team that's one of the best in the league at taking care of the ball(4th at 13.4TO/game) and one of the best at not giving up points off turnovers(5th at 15.8 PPG)? How much does that 1 TO/game get converted to points and how much is it truly hurting the team when the team averages only giving up 1.1 points per turnover?

this is a good point that has been mentioned elsewhere during the season but doesn't get a lot of attention even though it's a valid concern.  players not making open shots from Jaylen's passes have been pretty noticeable and they're not necessarily due to the quality of Jaylen's passes.  not to say he couldn't improve the targeting of his passes a bit but he draws a lot of attention when he has the ball which tends to leave a teammate open for a shot even if it's just a little off on the delivery.

[Moranis]

Brown is a top 25 type player, but as we've seen his entire time in Boston, he just doesn't impact winning like many other top 25 type players do.  He had that 3 month stretch at the end of last year, where he was very impactful, but other than that small period, he really hasn't done much in that regard.  During that 33 game stretch, Brown averaged 23.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 tpg and his GmSc was 16.3.  His TS% was 58.5, AST% 19.5 and TOV% 10.9.  On the year, his on/off differential per 100 possessions was +5.4 (the best since his 2nd year and only the 3rd time he was positive).  This year he is back to negative and he is way negative at this point at -11.6.  Of the regulars, only Smart is worse at a horrid -14.7. 

And it is worse in the playoffs.  Brown has had a positive on/off differential in the playoffs only his rookie year at +1.3 when he was a back-up that didn't play much.  Even last year on the Finals run, Brown was -1.5 per 100 possessions.  Of the top 8, 4 were positive - Pritchard, Rob, Tatum, and Al, while 4 were negative Brown, White, Smart, and Grant.  I'm not surprised to see the two bigs and a shooter being positive along with Tatum.  That matches what I've witnessed, i.e. Tatum is at his best at SF without Brown on the floor and a shooter (but not scorer) in the backcourt. 

And I know it is early, but this has been the trend for going on 7 seasons now with Brown and Tatum.  It isn't a fluke, and while all metrics have to be taken in context, the on/off differential per 100 possessions I've found to be the most accurate in actually determining impact to winning (Jokic for example has an astronomically high on/off).  If you go through all of the historical greats that were anchors on winning and championship level teams, they almost always are in the +10 or greater range.  On most great teams that have a big 2 or 3, the top players don't have the discrepancy that Tatum and Brown do either.  The Bucks, for example, the last two seasons both Jrue and Giannis are in the same general range (Jrue is actually a bit higher) and Middleton is still very much in the positive.  Last year's Warriors team was incredibly reliant on Curry, but the other starters were all still positive.  Going back to the prior championship level teams, Curry and Durant were both uber elite in on/off differential.  In the Raptors playoff run, Leonard and Lowry, both elite (Leonard missed so many regular season games it is hard to get a gauge).   The Lakers bubble run, Davis and Lebron were both above +15 in the playoffs. 

I like Brown as a player, but he just doesn't move the needle for Boston.  That is why I would have been fine moving him for Durant over the summer and why I wouldn't foreclose moving him this summer either (or at the deadline if things start to go bad this year).  Tatum is the engine of Boston's success and Brown quite simply isn't a great fit next to Tatum.  We've seen that time and time again with Tatum not only upping his totals, but also his efficiency without Brown playing, and while simply removing Brown doesn't devastate Boston in the standings.  The inverse has not been true, in the much smaller sample size of Tatum missing games, Boston is no where near the same level of team.  Boston needs Tatum, but Boston doesn't need Brown.  Brown is nice to have, but as Who said, he is the nice sound system which makes the car a lot nicer, but doesn't make the car function.

[Roy H.]

One thing to keep an eye on, which is probably just anecdotal:  I've noticed a few times that JB has missed Hauser on open looks.   It struck me as odd, because there were clear passing lanes and lines of sight. 

It's probably nothing, but some guys just don't trust others to take shots sometimes. 

[Roy H.]

Brown is a top 25 type player, but as we've seen his entire time in Boston, he just doesn't impact winning like many other top 25 type players do.  He had that 3 month stretch at the end of last year, where he was very impactful, but other than that small period, he really hasn't done much in that regard.  During that 33 game stretch, Brown averaged 23.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 tpg and his GmSc was 16.3.  His TS% was 58.5, AST% 19.5 and TOV% 10.9.  On the year, his on/off differential per 100 possessions was +5.4 (the best since his 2nd year and only the 3rd time he was positive).  This year he is back to negative and he is way negative at this point at -11.6.  Of the regulars, only Smart is worse at a horrid -14.7. 

And it is worse in the playoffs.  Brown has had a positive on/off differential in the playoffs only his rookie year at +1.3 when he was a back-up that didn't play much.  Even last year on the Finals run, Brown was -1.5 per 100 possessions.  Of the top 8, 4 were positive - Pritchard, Rob, Tatum, and Al, while 4 were negative Brown, White, Smart, and Grant.  I'm not surprised to see the two bigs and a shooter being positive along with Tatum.  That matches what I've witnessed, i.e. Tatum is at his best at SF without Brown on the floor and a shooter (but not scorer) in the backcourt. 

And I know it is early, but this has been the trend for going on 7 seasons now with Brown and Tatum.  It isn't a fluke, and while all metrics have to be taken in context, the on/off differential per 100 possessions I've found to be the most accurate in actually determining impact to winning (Jokic for example has an astronomically high on/off).  If you go through all of the historical greats that were anchors on winning and championship level teams, they almost always are in the +10 or greater range.  On most great teams that have a big 2 or 3, the top players don't have the discrepancy that Tatum and Brown do either.  The Bucks, for example, the last two seasons both Jrue and Giannis are in the same general range (Jrue is actually a bit higher) and Middleton is still very much in the positive.  Last year's Warriors team was incredibly reliant on Curry, but the other starters were all still positive.  Going back to the prior championship level teams, Curry and Durant were both uber elite in on/off differential.  In the Raptors playoff run, Leonard and Lowry, both elite (Leonard missed so many regular season games it is hard to get a gauge).   The Lakers bubble run, Davis and Lebron were both above +15 in the playoffs. 

I like Brown as a player, but he just doesn't move the needle for Boston.  That is why I would have been fine moving him for Durant over the summer and why I wouldn't foreclose moving him this summer either (or at the deadline if things start to go bad this year).  Tatum is the engine of Boston's success and Brown quite simply isn't a great fit next to Tatum.  We've seen that time and time again with Tatum not only upping his totals, but also his efficiency without Brown playing, and while simply removing Brown doesn't devastate Boston in the standings.  The inverse has not been true, in the much smaller sample size of Tatum missing games, Boston is no where near the same level of team.  Boston needs Tatum, but Boston doesn't need Brown.  Brown is nice to have, but as Who said, he is the nice sound system which makes the car a lot nicer, but doesn't make the car function.

Question:  how many guys that you rate between 15th and 25th *do* impact winning, in your opinion?

And, historically, how would you compare JB to Paul Pierce?  Did PP34 impact winning, and at what stages of his career?

[Vermont Green]

If Brown stays mostly healthy and Boston doesn't collapse, there is almost no way he isn't an all star this year.

Brown is off to a slow start this season.  Tatum had a slow start last season.  Brown's advanced stats were just fine last season, as expected for a #2 star.  I know in theory the all star selection is supposed to be based on just this season but that tends not to be the case.  I feel Brown is an all star caliber player, even this season with the slow start.  And I expect those voting will in general feel the same.

Want to explain "slow start"?

He's averaging career bests in points per game, rebounds per game, assists per game, FG%, 2PT%, FT%, TS%, OReb%, DReb%, Reb% and Usg%.

He isn't having the best year shooting threes or turning the ball over, but every other part of his game is great, scoring over 30 5 times and leading the team in scoring and rebounding many times. I think that's far from starting slow, unless you only mean shooting threes.

The stat that was being discussed was his on/off.  Last season, he was +9.9 per 100 possessions.  This season, he is up to only +2.3 per 100 possessions.  His start to this season so far is not as good as last season in terms of team outcome when he is on the court.  This has been improving and I expect will continue to improve.

Individually, he has had some good games but to me, he has looked more choppy than last season.  More fumbles, more forced shots or drives.  Shooting 3s and turnovers are two of the most important stats for him and you note that those are down.  I expect Brown to be an all star this season in the end.

[nickagneta]

Brown is a top 25 type player, but as we've seen his entire time in Boston, he just doesn't impact winning like many other top 25 type players do.  He had that 3 month stretch at the end of last year, where he was very impactful, but other than that small period, he really hasn't done much in that regard.  During that 33 game stretch, Brown averaged 23.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 tpg and his GmSc was 16.3.  His TS% was 58.5, AST% 19.5 and TOV% 10.9.  On the year, his on/off differential per 100 possessions was +5.4 (the best since his 2nd year and only the 3rd time he was positive).  This year he is back to negative and he is way negative at this point at -11.6.  Of the regulars, only Smart is worse at a horrid -14.7. 

And it is worse in the playoffs.  Brown has had a positive on/off differential in the playoffs only his rookie year at +1.3 when he was a back-up that didn't play much.  Even last year on the Finals run, Brown was -1.5 per 100 possessions.  Of the top 8, 4 were positive - Pritchard, Rob, Tatum, and Al, while 4 were negative Brown, White, Smart, and Grant.  I'm not surprised to see the two bigs and a shooter being positive along with Tatum.  That matches what I've witnessed, i.e. Tatum is at his best at SF without Brown on the floor and a shooter (but not scorer) in the backcourt. 

And I know it is early, but this has been the trend for going on 7 seasons now with Brown and Tatum.  It isn't a fluke, and while all metrics have to be taken in context, the on/off differential per 100 possessions I've found to be the most accurate in actually determining impact to winning (Jokic for example has an astronomically high on/off).  If you go through all of the historical greats that were anchors on winning and championship level teams, they almost always are in the +10 or greater range.  On most great teams that have a big 2 or 3, the top players don't have the discrepancy that Tatum and Brown do either.  The Bucks, for example, the last two seasons both Jrue and Giannis are in the same general range (Jrue is actually a bit higher) and Middleton is still very much in the positive.  Last year's Warriors team was incredibly reliant on Curry, but the other starters were all still positive.  Going back to the prior championship level teams, Curry and Durant were both uber elite in on/off differential.  In the Raptors playoff run, Leonard and Lowry, both elite (Leonard missed so many regular season games it is hard to get a gauge).   The Lakers bubble run, Davis and Lebron were both above +15 in the playoffs. 

I like Brown as a player, but he just doesn't move the needle for Boston.  That is why I would have been fine moving him for Durant over the summer and why I wouldn't foreclose moving him this summer either (or at the deadline if things start to go bad this year).  Tatum is the engine of Boston's success and Brown quite simply isn't a great fit next to Tatum.  We've seen that time and time again with Tatum not only upping his totals, but also his efficiency without Brown playing, and while simply removing Brown doesn't devastate Boston in the standings.  The inverse has not been true, in the much smaller sample size of Tatum missing games, Boston is no where near the same level of team.  Boston needs Tatum, but Boston doesn't need Brown.  Brown is nice to have, but as Who said, he is the nice sound system which makes the car a lot nicer, but doesn't make the car function.

You can repeat this over and over and over and over and over and over again, but it doesn't make it right, which is why almost no one agrees with it in the years and years that you have been bringing it up. It's also why, I am positive, no one in Celtic management, or for that matter, almost any other NBA team's management would agree with it. If Jaylen ends up on the open market, good to great teams will do all sorts of stuff to try to bring him into their team, because none of them think that Brown wouldn't move the needle for them.

[Ed Monix]

Brown is a top 25 type player, but as we've seen his entire time in Boston, he just doesn't impact winning like many other top 25 type players do.  He had that 3 month stretch at the end of last year, where he was very impactful, but other than that small period, he really hasn't done much in that regard.  During that 33 game stretch, Brown averaged 23.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 tpg and his GmSc was 16.3.  His TS% was 58.5, AST% 19.5 and TOV% 10.9.  On the year, his on/off differential per 100 possessions was +5.4 (the best since his 2nd year and only the 3rd time he was positive).  This year he is back to negative and he is way negative at this point at -11.6.  Of the regulars, only Smart is worse at a horrid -14.7. 

And it is worse in the playoffs.  Brown has had a positive on/off differential in the playoffs only his rookie year at +1.3 when he was a back-up that didn't play much.  Even last year on the Finals run, Brown was -1.5 per 100 possessions.  Of the top 8, 4 were positive - Pritchard, Rob, Tatum, and Al, while 4 were negative Brown, White, Smart, and Grant.  I'm not surprised to see the two bigs and a shooter being positive along with Tatum.  That matches what I've witnessed, i.e. Tatum is at his best at SF without Brown on the floor and a shooter (but not scorer) in the backcourt. 

And I know it is early, but this has been the trend for going on 7 seasons now with Brown and Tatum.  It isn't a fluke, and while all metrics have to be taken in context, the on/off differential per 100 possessions I've found to be the most accurate in actually determining impact to winning (Jokic for example has an astronomically high on/off).  If you go through all of the historical greats that were anchors on winning and championship level teams, they almost always are in the +10 or greater range.  On most great teams that have a big 2 or 3, the top players don't have the discrepancy that Tatum and Brown do either.  The Bucks, for example, the last two seasons both Jrue and Giannis are in the same general range (Jrue is actually a bit higher) and Middleton is still very much in the positive.  Last year's Warriors team was incredibly reliant on Curry, but the other starters were all still positive.  Going back to the prior championship level teams, Curry and Durant were both uber elite in on/off differential.  In the Raptors playoff run, Leonard and Lowry, both elite (Leonard missed so many regular season games it is hard to get a gauge).   The Lakers bubble run, Davis and Lebron were both above +15 in the playoffs. 

I like Brown as a player, but he just doesn't move the needle for Boston.  That is why I would have been fine moving him for Durant over the summer and why I wouldn't foreclose moving him this summer either (or at the deadline if things start to go bad this year).  Tatum is the engine of Boston's success and Brown quite simply isn't a great fit next to Tatum.  We've seen that time and time again with Tatum not only upping his totals, but also his efficiency without Brown playing, and while simply removing Brown doesn't devastate Boston in the standings.  The inverse has not been true, in the much smaller sample size of Tatum missing games, Boston is no where near the same level of team.  Boston needs Tatum, but Boston doesn't need Brown.  Brown is nice to have, but as Who said, he is the nice sound system which makes the car a lot nicer, but doesn't make the car function.

Question:  how many guys that you rate between 15th and 25th *do* impact winning, in your opinion?

And, historically, how would you compare JB to Paul Pierce?  Did PP34 impact winning, and at what stages of his career?

I think people have to look at the bigger picture in regards to Brown’s fit next to Tatum.

If not Brown then who? Because although I agree that the fit isn’t perfect, IMO perfect isn’t available.

Who fits and knows Tatum’s game better than Brown? If you go down the list of the best 25 guys, even if they were available, they wouldn’t have the two way impact that he does (perhaps other than Curry), without hogging the ball or clogging the lane.

IMO, it COULD have been Brandon Ingram, if he developed in the Celtics ecosystem instead of the Lakers/Pelicans.

[Who]

Question:  how many guys that you rate between 15th and 25th *do* impact winning, in your opinion?

This is a really interesting question to think about. 

There is a lot of moving parts to it. Some guys impact W-L records in a big way in the regular season but not as much in the post-season such as Rudy Gobert whose defensive game can be game-planned around for in a playoff series. You got some guys like Trae Young who can have a big impact in W-L but have serious flaws (size, defense) that make them vulnerable in the postseason. Or, Trae Young again, some guys who are so ball dominant that they can have a large individual impact but can sometimes limit some of their teammates (also a common complaint for Luka Doncic these days).


I see Jaylen's best quality as being a 20+ppg threat while not being a defensive liability. That two-way quality makes him rock-solid in the playoffs. [Edit: I'd say Jaylen's regular season W-L value understates his playoff value. That is what I was trying to say with the comparison to some of the others above]


---------------------

The question reminds me of a Jerry West comment, that people do not understand how large of a gap there is between an All-NBA player and an All-Star player. They are not similar. An All-Pro is about twice as valuable as an All-Star. I think he's right about that.

[Who]

Some passing stats for the Celtics.

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/passing?TeamID=1610612738&dir=D&sort=SECONDARY_AST

Some interesting ones regarding Brown. Even though he is only 0.1 APG away from being 5th on the team in APG, he is tied for 3rd on the team in secondary APG(only 0.1 less than Tatum) and is tied for 3rd in potential APG at 6.4.

If you look at the conversion rate of assists/potential assists, Jaylen's at just 52% is one of the worst on the team with most of the other players being in the 55%-60% area. That means, he's had some bad luck picking up assists because guys aren't hitting shots as frequently as passes from other players.

Also, Jaylen is generating an extra 9.1 points per game with his assists. You add that to his PPG numbers and the fact he's making 37 passes a game and it's pretty difficult to say that he is somehow a drag on this team.

Admittedly, his turnovers hurt but how much? If he averaged only 2.4TOs a game rather than 3.4TOs, would we be complaining about his TOs hurting the team any more than anyone else? On a team that's one of the best in the league at taking care of the ball(4th at 13.4TO/game) and one of the best at not giving up points off turnovers(5th at 15.8 PPG)? How much does that 1 TO/game get converted to points and how much is it truly hurting the team when the team averages only giving up 1.1 points per turnover?

Just to make a comment on the turnovers part.

So Jaylen is scoring 25.3ppg on 19.5 FGA and 4.8 FTA for a TS% 58.4%.

The league average is currently 57.2%. So if Jayen's scoring was replaced at a league average rate, that would be 24.7ppg. A drop-off of 0.6ppg compared to the 1.1ppg you lost with that extra turnover leaving you with a negative 0.5ppg.

Say the replacements do not score at league average level, say they score 22nd rate in the league. That is 55.5% TS%. That gives you 24.0ppg so you have lost 1.3ppg on the drop-off from Jaylen to his replacement scorers. That extra turnover Jaylen adds removes 1.1ppg of that 1.3ppg to leave you at a net positive 0.2ppg.


Just to have a different viewpoint of looking at that extra turnover and the value it takes away from Jaylen. And that his value on offense would improve quite a bit if he could reduce that negative value his turnovers detract from his game by lowering his turnovers from 3.4tpg to 2.4tpg.

----------------------------

You could also look at it from the team-wide view and question does Jaylen's style of play help limit the turnovers of the rest of the team? I don't know.

I would think having three guards who can handle the ball and pass like Smart, D White and Brogdon helps reduce turnovers a lot. Also having a big man who can handle and pass like Horford. Then you have some secondary ball-handling & playmaking in Tatum.

How much of that team low turnovers is Jaylen responsible for? Probably not that much. 

[Moranis]

Brown is a top 25 type player, but as we've seen his entire time in Boston, he just doesn't impact winning like many other top 25 type players do.  He had that 3 month stretch at the end of last year, where he was very impactful, but other than that small period, he really hasn't done much in that regard.  During that 33 game stretch, Brown averaged 23.2 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 3.9 apg, 2.4 tpg and his GmSc was 16.3.  His TS% was 58.5, AST% 19.5 and TOV% 10.9.  On the year, his on/off differential per 100 possessions was +5.4 (the best since his 2nd year and only the 3rd time he was positive).  This year he is back to negative and he is way negative at this point at -11.6.  Of the regulars, only Smart is worse at a horrid -14.7. 

And it is worse in the playoffs.  Brown has had a positive on/off differential in the playoffs only his rookie year at +1.3 when he was a back-up that didn't play much.  Even last year on the Finals run, Brown was -1.5 per 100 possessions.  Of the top 8, 4 were positive - Pritchard, Rob, Tatum, and Al, while 4 were negative Brown, White, Smart, and Grant.  I'm not surprised to see the two bigs and a shooter being positive along with Tatum.  That matches what I've witnessed, i.e. Tatum is at his best at SF without Brown on the floor and a shooter (but not scorer) in the backcourt. 

And I know it is early, but this has been the trend for going on 7 seasons now with Brown and Tatum.  It isn't a fluke, and while all metrics have to be taken in context, the on/off differential per 100 possessions I've found to be the most accurate in actually determining impact to winning (Jokic for example has an astronomically high on/off).  If you go through all of the historical greats that were anchors on winning and championship level teams, they almost always are in the +10 or greater range.  On most great teams that have a big 2 or 3, the top players don't have the discrepancy that Tatum and Brown do either.  The Bucks, for example, the last two seasons both Jrue and Giannis are in the same general range (Jrue is actually a bit higher) and Middleton is still very much in the positive.  Last year's Warriors team was incredibly reliant on Curry, but the other starters were all still positive.  Going back to the prior championship level teams, Curry and Durant were both uber elite in on/off differential.  In the Raptors playoff run, Leonard and Lowry, both elite (Leonard missed so many regular season games it is hard to get a gauge).   The Lakers bubble run, Davis and Lebron were both above +15 in the playoffs. 

I like Brown as a player, but he just doesn't move the needle for Boston.  That is why I would have been fine moving him for Durant over the summer and why I wouldn't foreclose moving him this summer either (or at the deadline if things start to go bad this year).  Tatum is the engine of Boston's success and Brown quite simply isn't a great fit next to Tatum.  We've seen that time and time again with Tatum not only upping his totals, but also his efficiency without Brown playing, and while simply removing Brown doesn't devastate Boston in the standings.  The inverse has not been true, in the much smaller sample size of Tatum missing games, Boston is no where near the same level of team.  Boston needs Tatum, but Boston doesn't need Brown.  Brown is nice to have, but as Who said, he is the nice sound system which makes the car a lot nicer, but doesn't make the car function.

Question:  how many guys that you rate between 15th and 25th *do* impact winning, in your opinion?

And, historically, how would you compare JB to Paul Pierce?  Did PP34 impact winning, and at what stages of his career?

Pierce had a pretty dramatic impact on winning.  his entire time in Boston, he had a positive on/off (he did in Brooklyn and Washington as well, it was only the last 2 seasons in LA that he did not).  Pierce had several seasons above +10, which is elite.  He is pretty prime example of a guy that is a top 15-25 player that impacted winning in a positive way.  Ray Allen was another guy that applied to.  One of the reasons the Celtics could come together and have so much success so quickly was because all 3 of those guys were tremendously valuable players to the actual wins and losses of their teams. 

ESPN's top 15-25 players this year were (counting down from 25): Edwards, Mitchell, Bam, Jaylen, Paul, AD, Beal, Gobert, Butler, Trae, George

These are the guys that thus far this year are negative for on/off differential per 100 possessions - Brown, Gobert

That is it.  Everyone else is positive.  Some aren't much in the positive, but some are (Bam for example has an elite on/off). 

Now impacting winning, doesn't mean they are going to win championships, but having a guy whose team isn't better when they are on the bench, isn't really much to ask for.