Author Topic: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank  (Read 17527 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2013, 09:19:36 AM »

Online Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 58543
  • Tommy Points: -25636
  • Bo Knows: Joe Don't Know Diddley
Rondo will win us some games.  I'm not sure that Jeff Green will have a major impact on the win / loss column.


I'M THE SILVERBACK GORILLA IN THIS MOTHER——— AND DON'T NONE OF YA'LL EVER FORGET IT!@ 34 minutes

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2013, 09:21:38 AM »

Offline connor

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 568
  • Tommy Points: 37
Why do people keep acting like we need to decide to trade Rondo or Green NOW? We don't. We're not going anywhere so we can take our time and see what happens.Teams that are interested in Rondo will still be interested in him between now and the deadline.

What I'd like to see the Celtics do is to hold Rondo our for a minimum of 10 games. Even if he is ready to come back to start the season, we should hold him out that long to get relatively good look at our roster without Rondo.

Then we ease Rondo back with limited minutes for another 10 games and finally we let Rondo run out there full strength/minutes for another 10.

Thats 30 games into the season and we'll have gotten a chance to evaluate our team with and without Rondo, but equally as important we can evaluate the landscape of the league at that point. There are a lot of lottery teams that I think could be significantly improved (CHA, ORL, SAC, NO, CLE, WAS, POR).

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2013, 09:24:17 AM »

Offline Evantime34

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11942
  • Tommy Points: 764
  • Eagerly Awaiting the Next Fantasy Draft
Rondo will win us some games.  I'm not sure that Jeff Green will have a major impact on the win / loss column.
According to the Win shares metric Jeff Green was good for 4.7 wins last year, and that was with him not doing much in the first half of the season. Our best player (Paul Pierce) last year accounted for 7.2 wins by this metric. I expect Green to be good for about 5.5-6 wins next year which shouldn't swing the needle to far in either direction.
DKC:  Rockets
CB Draft: Memphis Grizz
Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
Next 3 picks: 4.14, 4.15, 4.19

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2013, 09:44:13 AM »

Offline BleedGreen1989

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5561
  • Tommy Points: 568
I think the tanking decision will come when the Celtics are looking like a late lottery team that has a chance to make the playoffs and it becomes a question of making a playoff push vs selling off useful veterans for assets towards the deadline and slipping into the bottom ten with a better shot of getting lucky in the lottery.

This.

Too soon to tell what the heck the FO is thinking
*CB Miami Heat*
Kyle Lowry, Dwayne Wade, 13th pick in even numbered rounds, 18th pick in odd numbered rounds.

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2013, 09:51:45 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Green isn't going to carry the team to many wins.

We'll see how effective Rondo is at carrying a team in the regular season.  He's never done it before with any consistency.

  We haven't been *that* bad the past few years...

  Just out of curiosity, is how well a team performs when you surround a top player with a weak cast the typical way that you judge how well a player's able to carry a team? If the team performs poorly this year we'll see tons of posts claiming that it's proof Rondo can't carry a team, and about 99% of the people who say that would quickly defend the lack of success that some other star players have by pointing to weak supporting casts.

We haven't been bad at all the past couple of years -- though last season we were mediocre.

I attribute the majority of our (regular season) success to Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett, though.

It's hard to argue with the fact that the team had a better record without Rondo last year than with him.


To answer your question re: carrying, yes, that kind of is how I judge it.

To be clear, if indeed Rondo is unable to "carry" a team with a weak supporting cast, that doesn't mean he's a bad player.  It just means that his skillset makes him best suited to being a key piece on a team with talent already in place.

I think you could come up with examples of players with similar talent who nonetheless would be easier to build around.  Joakim Noah or Roy Hibbert are good examples, I think.  Among guards, I'd point to players like Damian Lillard or Ty Lawson.  None of those guys I mentioned are necessarily better (regular season) players than Rondo, and Rondo has been more dominant in the post-season (though Hibbert was pretty great against Miami). 

I could think of team compositions in which I'd definitely prefer to have Rondo over any of those players.  But for the team we have now, I think we'd probably win more games with those guys.

Of course, when I say "build around," I mean trying to win games in the regular season.  I don't actually think any of those guys is a franchise player that could be the best guy on a contender.  But I don't think that of Rondo, either.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2013, 09:53:11 AM »

Offline Cman

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13068
  • Tommy Points: 120
I have been a proponent of tanking in order to try and secure Wiggins or Parker. I think that they, especially Wiggins, give us the best opportunity to win future championships. That being said, there is no way on earth that this roster can lose enough to be in the bottom couple of teams this upcoming season.

Rondo
Bradley/Lee/Brooks
Green/Wallace
Bass/Humphries/Sullinger
Olynyk

Clearly we have a big hole at the Center spot as Olynyk is much more likely to be effective at the PF spot, but even with him playing Center, this isn't a "worst in the league" talent roster. This is probably a 30-35 win team. Considering there will be one or two of the "rest of the guys" that have a decent year and we are flirting with an 8th seed most of the season. That will result in us being mediocre for another long stretch.

You will see whether or not DA is serious about not tanking if Rondo and Green are on the roster. If Rondo gets traded, then it was lip service. If both, then we are truly in full on tank mode. Without them both, this team is a 15 win team.

Depends on what you get back by trading them.
In any case, "Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank" .... I'm fine with that.
Celtics fan for life.

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #21 on: July 19, 2013, 09:54:20 AM »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Robert Parish
  • *********************
  • Posts: 21835
  • Tommy Points: 2182
Rondo will win us some games.  I'm not sure that Jeff Green will have a major impact on the win / loss column.
According to the Win shares metric Jeff Green was good for 4.7 wins last year, and that was with him not doing much in the first half of the season. Our best player (Paul Pierce) last year accounted for 7.2 wins by this metric. I expect Green to be good for about 5.5-6 wins next year which shouldn't swing the needle to far in either direction.

I think the thing to look at with Win Shares is how the season total compares with other players at his position.

Jeff will have a decent number of win shares next year, but will it be many more than an average player at his position?

Matt Barnes had 6.3 Win Shares last season.  Jared Dudley had 4.8.  Chandler Parsons had 7.  Vince Carter had 6.  Shawn Marion had 5.3
« Last Edit: July 19, 2013, 10:40:14 AM by PhoSita »
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #22 on: July 19, 2013, 10:05:11 AM »

Offline celticsfan8591

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 528
  • Tommy Points: 38
Teams I see being clearly worse than us: Charlotte, Utah, Philly, Phoenix, Sacramento
Teams that may be worse: Orlando, Portland (if they trade Aldridge), Milwaukee (if they lose Jennings), Dallas (if Dirk gets injured or declines, they have little else)

Now that's assuming that Rondo comes back quickly and at full strength. If he misses a good chunk of the season, we could end up behind (or ahead of, depending on how you look at it), Phoenix, Sacramento, and maybe Charlotte.  Without Rondo and Green for the entire season, we'd be in the discussion for worst team in the league, but Philly is also really bad and Utah is too (and plays in the West).

So by doing nothing (and "making sure Rondo's 100% healed"), we have at best a 15.6% chance of winning the lottery (if we finish with the third worst record). By getting rid of Rondo and Green, we might have the worst record, but that only gets us a 25% chance at winning.  I'm not against trading Rondo if we get a young stud and/or a bunch of draft picks back, but just dumping him to improve our odds at the number one pick doesn't make sense to me when a.) it doesn't improve our odds THAT much and b.) there are several potential stars in the draft and we could get one with a top 7 pick without sacrificing Rondo. 

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #23 on: July 19, 2013, 10:21:43 AM »

Offline RJ87

  • NCE
  • Ed Macauley
  • ***********
  • Posts: 11685
  • Tommy Points: 1406
  • Let's Go Celtics!
This is why I don't think we're bonafide tanking.

I think this season is more about evaluating than anything, there's so many question marks and unknowns on this roster: can Rondo be a leader? Can Jeff be a consistent factor now that he's starting at his natural SF position full time? Is Avery a starter or a 6th man? What do we have in Sully and Olynyk? Is Brad Stevens an NBA caliber coach?

The answers to those questions will show how far away from contention we are - I think management and ownership want to make this process as quick as possible and if they can avoid a full blown tank job that'll last 5+ years, they will.
2021 Houston Rockets
PG: Kyrie Irving/Patty Mills/Jalen Brunson
SG: OG Anunoby/Norman Powell/Matisse Thybulle
SF: Gordon Hayward/Demar Derozan
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo/Robert Covington
C: Kristaps Porzingis/Bobby Portis/James Wiseman

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2013, 12:29:31 PM »

Offline nostar

  • Jayson Tatum
  • Posts: 754
  • Tommy Points: 74
I disagree with the OP in a big way.

Last season the worst team in the NBA was the Orlando Magic and they got the 2nd pick. The 1st pick went to the Cavs with a record of 24-58. Here are some comparisons:

Cav's were without Irving for 23 games. When he did come back his minutes were limited. I expect this to be better or equal to what we'll see from Rondo's recovery. That is, I expect him to miss more than 23 games.

The Cavs had a pretty mediocre team outside of Irving last year. However, Waiters is a good player that you could compare to Green as far as his #s and minutes.

Thompson had a great season averaging close to 12/10. This is what I expect from Sully/KO. If they split minutes probably 7/7 from each. If they play along side each other probably 8/6 each.

We're going to trade Humphries. I'd hope that we could do it in the preseason but who knows. I'd put money on him being gone by the deadline though. $12M expiring is nothing to waste. Ditto for Bogans. I expect Danny to take on another bad contract or two this year. If he's really on top of it he'll move Hump and Bogans for a larger worse contract and at least once 1st rounder.

Wallace I expect to be waived via the stretch provision.

Bass/AB/Brooks/Melo etc won't contribute a ton to us winning or losing.

Ok now let's take the #3 picking team, the Washington Wizards.

John Wall played in 49 games, or 60% of the season. This is about what I expect from Rondo. He averaged 18/8/4 in 33 mpg. Also what I expect from Rondo.

Beal was their second best player last season and his #s are almost exactly Jeff Green's. It's eerie.

Then Nene, 12/7. KO is probably going to have these #s if he gets the minutes.

Okafor got 10/9. That's Sully.

Ariza was actually better than AB but they play similar roles. Hustle guys who can defend really well and score when they get a good opportunity.

What I'm getting at is that we're a lotto team. Not as bad as Orlando was (and will be) but still very bad. The teams in the east that will rival us for the worst are Charlotte, Philly, Atlanta and Orlando. Phoenix and Utah out west (maybe LAL too). I expect a top-10 pick and I suspect a top-5 pick. Anything in the top-10 will be valuable in trades and top-5 is worth one failed season for sure.

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #25 on: July 19, 2013, 12:32:42 PM »

Offline dark_lord

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8808
  • Tommy Points: 1126
i dont want to tank

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #26 on: July 19, 2013, 02:52:19 PM »

Offline McNoob

  • Xavier Tillman
  • Posts: 40
  • Tommy Points: 7
The last time the C's tanked, it was the Oden-Durant sweepstakes and they would have either got stuck with Jeff Green or Yi Jianlian (had they not traded the pick for Ray Allen).

Tanking doesn't guarantee anything when the lottery exists.

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #27 on: July 19, 2013, 03:19:34 PM »

Offline 2short

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6080
  • Tommy Points: 428
I don't think we are going to be that far off last years record.  No KG hurts, new coach I think will help.  We got 3 vet scrappers, 2 of whom are playing to show they haven't lost it, humphries/wallace.  Sully is going to be pretty big this year.  Green I think as well.
x factor bradley, if he can stay healthy and put his whole game together that is the best defensive backcourt in the nba

stevens can install tommy ball we don't really need a true low post center!

bartender another green shot!

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #28 on: July 19, 2013, 03:42:07 PM »

Offline tenn_smoothie

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6131
  • Tommy Points: 722
I think we can tank with Green.

beautiful - just give Green as many minutes as possible and we'll be on our way to the lottery without appearing to tank. Jeff Green - our secret weapon.
The Four Celtic Generals:
Russell - Cowens - Bird - Garnett

The Four Celtic Lieutenants:
Cousy - Havlicek - McHale - Pierce

Re: Without Trading Away Rondo and Green We Can't Tank
« Reply #29 on: July 19, 2013, 03:47:59 PM »

Offline rjb182

  • Joe Mazzulla
  • Posts: 133
  • Tommy Points: 10
I still see this as a process of weeding the chaff out from your roster rather than "tanking" per se, but look...

Rondo doesn't stop you from tanking because if you REALLY want to lose games, you hold him out. Still, healthy, maybe he makes this team five games better than his replacement. So, yeah, we could win 30 or so with him if we want to.

As for Green... I wish him well, but he strikes me as a consummate "top player on a bad team" guy. That is, he might score 20 ppg, but if he does, all that means is, you're giving a lot of shots to a guy who isn't any better than Jeff Green.

You can lose 50-60 games with him, easy.