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Was Marcus a hit pick?

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Author Topic: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick  (Read 16369 times)

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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #15 on: July 20, 2018, 12:11:40 AM »

Offline liam

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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #16 on: July 20, 2018, 12:12:19 AM »

Offline trickybilly

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Always difficult to gauge Smart given his unique skill set that goes against the grain of the current NBA. He’ll never be a star, but he’s clearly a high-end role player who makes his team better on both sides of the ball, which makes him a hit to me.

I think you can assess this question in two ways: compare Smart to his immediate pick range competition (4 - 8) or via the context of the team.

He’s clearly a hit via the pick range criteria, as I think he’s the best of that bunch and fits the needs of our team much better than a Gordon, Exum, Randle, or Stauskas ever could.

As for context, I think of which players I would rather have right now given the context of the current team. And honestly, it’s not that many: (1) For sure - Embiid; (2) Probably - Capela, Harris; (3) Maybe - Jokic (not high on him personally). That’d put him at 5 at the lowest on a redraft per context and fit for the team, so that’s a hit for me.

Smart is just a perfect fit for this team and is surrounded by ideal-fitting teammates, which makes him a hot for me. And I think Smart’s effect on this team’s overall character and passion is also undervalued and something that should be considered.

You trade Smart for Jokic faster than you can say Banner 18.
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #17 on: July 20, 2018, 12:15:52 AM »

Offline chiken Green

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He's a Key contributor on a team with Championship aspirations. 

When he is not on the court you can definitely feel it and

The Guards playing ahead of him are a #1 and a #3 pick respectively.

How is he not a hit?

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #18 on: July 20, 2018, 12:25:45 AM »

Offline Scintan

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#6 pick who's a top 12 player, though one who would probably be passed over for some of the players drafted behind him in most people's re-drafts.  Sure, it's a hit.  It's not one I'd do a lot of bragging about, but it's a hit.



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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #19 on: July 20, 2018, 12:35:08 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Here's your list of #6 picks going back to 1990:

Jonathan Isaac
Buddy Hield
Willey Cauley-Stein
Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Gallinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier
DerMarr Johnson
Wally Szczerbiak
Robert Traylor
Ron Mercer
Antoine Walker
Bryant Reeves
Sharone Wright
Calbert Cheaney
Tom Gugliotta
Doug Smith
Felton Spencer

How many of those guys would you rather have over Smart?

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2018, 01:29:49 AM »

Offline colincb

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A miss in a crappy draft in hindsight becomes a "sort of." I expect starters where he was picked. Pushed to make a hit or miss choice and he's a miss. However, he's a plus player and a specialist and that makes him a playoff rotation player on pretty much any contender.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #21 on: July 20, 2018, 01:37:24 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Here's your list of #6 picks going back to 1990:

Jonathan Isaac
Buddy Hield
Willey Cauley-Stein
Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Gallinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier
DerMarr Johnson
Wally Szczerbiak
Robert Traylor
Ron Mercer
Antoine Walker
Bryant Reeves
Sharone Wright
Calbert Cheaney
Tom Gugliotta
Doug Smith
Felton Spencer

How many of those guys would you rather have over Smart?
What's with the #6 pick producing all these guys who had their career cut short, or otherwise negatively impacted, by injury? Roy, Kaman, Szczerbiak, Gugliotta, Reeves, Mercer, Wagner, Gallinari, Flynn and Nerlens Noel all likely would have had drastically different careers had they been healthy. Especially Brandon Roy
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #22 on: July 20, 2018, 02:52:00 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Here's your list of #6 picks going back to 1990:

Jonathan Isaac
Buddy Hield
Willey Cauley-Stein
Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Gallinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier
DerMarr Johnson
Wally Szczerbiak
Robert Traylor
Ron Mercer
Antoine Walker
Bryant Reeves
Sharone Wright
Calbert Cheaney
Tom Gugliotta
Doug Smith
Felton Spencer

How many of those guys would you rather have over Smart?
What's with the #6 pick producing all these guys who had their career cut short, or otherwise negatively impacted, by injury? Roy, Kaman, Szczerbiak, Gugliotta, Reeves, Mercer, Wagner, Gallinari, Flynn and Nerlens Noel all likely would have had drastically different careers had they been healthy. Especially Brandon Roy

Sheer luck

I remember pick 3 is historically better than pick 2.

The OP's list might be better if he included picks 5 and 7 I guess.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2018, 03:05:46 AM »

Offline mr. dee

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Here's your list of #6 picks going back to 1990:

Jonathan Isaac
Buddy Hield
Willey Cauley-Stein
Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Gallinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier
DerMarr Johnson
Wally Szczerbiak
Robert Traylor
Ron Mercer
Antoine Walker
Bryant Reeves
Sharone Wright
Calbert Cheaney
Tom Gugliotta
Doug Smith
Felton Spencer

How many of those guys would you rather have over Smart?

Bolded part are the only players who made the All-Star/All-NBA teams. Although I'm not sure with the notion of All-Star=instant win and I might take Smart over most of them.

Shane Battier was also a solid defensive player like Smart.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2018, 04:54:45 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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He is slightly above his "floor" of what I felt he could be. So at least he isn't a bust. I don't call that a hit though. A hit at that high in the draft is an NBA all-star level player.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #25 on: July 20, 2018, 05:51:37 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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Was Olynyk a hit too?

Yes, obviously with the Greek Freak drafted just behind him there is regret of something better but he was definitely a good pick for where he was picked.
In terms of not picking GA, remember that in what was a historically weak draft, he wasn't even considered in the top 10. No one can debate what he has become, but there weren't many believers in GM circles back then.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #26 on: July 20, 2018, 05:53:22 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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He is slightly above his "floor" of what I felt he could be. So at least he isn't a bust. I don't call that a hit though. A hit at that high in the draft is an NBA all-star level player.
Take a look at the list in the post above yours. In a strong draft you can get an all star, in most drafts you'll get a starter if they pan out.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #27 on: July 20, 2018, 06:00:39 AM »

Offline ederson

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He is slightly above his "floor" of what I felt he could be. So at least he isn't a bust. I don't call that a hit though. A hit at that high in the draft is an NBA all-star level player.

I used to think that way but at least lately top picks seem to become busts far too often


2011                   
Derrick Williams 
Enes Kanter
Tristan Thompson
Jonas Valančiūnas
Jan Veselý
Bismack Biyombo
Brandon Knight
Kemba Walker
Jimmer Fredette

2012
Anthony Davis
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Bradley Beal
Dion Waiters
Thomas Robinson
Damian Lillard
Harrison Barnes
Terrence Ross
Andre Drummond

2013
Anthony Bennett
Victor Oladipo
Otto Porter
Cody Zeller
Alex Len
Nerlens Noel
Ben McLemore
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Trey Burke
C. J. McCollum

2014
Andrew Wiggins
Jabari Parker
Joel Embiid
Aaron Gordon
Dante Exum
Marcus Smart
Julius Randle
Nik Stauskas
Noah Vonleh
Elfrid Payton

not a big sample size but almost half of them are clearly worse than Smart  and i don't think that more than 10 are better than him. So although is not a Lillard type of star he was o good pick 

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #28 on: July 20, 2018, 06:06:36 AM »

Offline Androslav

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Let's wait for one more year. The one I believe we will hang banner no 18. Then I will be able to evaluate correctly. For now he is below expectations. A non starter on a playoff team, may start on bad teams. Normally at 6th pick you hope to get a longterm starter. I still love that he is back though.

As I wrote after we win the chip, we can realistically say.
"The joy of the balling under the rims."

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #29 on: July 20, 2018, 06:29:00 AM »

Offline Green-18

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Smart is absolutely a "hit" for the Celtics.  A redraft places him in a similar spot and he means a lot to THIS team.  The context is extremely important.  For example, in a vacuum most of us would place Lavine above Smart.  Does this mean we would prefer Lavine on our current team at $18 million per year?

Lavine is a skilled scorer but where does he rank among players with similar skill sets?  I argue that his actual impact on winning is minimal.  His defense is also atrocious.  Opportunity cost needs to come into play at some point.  I'd rather have Smart in a redraft because I can find a close approximation to Lavine.

Clint Capela is another interesting case.  He has a couple of elite skills that are maximized in D'Antoni's system.  Despite this he is actually a minus offensive player for the Rockets.  Capella was unable to have a consistent positive impact against Golden State because his entire offensive game comes from rim running and rebounds.  He recently turned down $17 million per year from the Rockets.  If he get's $20 million or more in the future would we say that this is better value than Smart at $13 million regardless of team?  I don't think the answer is an easy yes.

Embiid, Jokic, and Harris are the only players who I would be comfortable paying big money to regardless of the team.  Wiggins still easily goes above Smart in a redraft but his poor attitude makes me wonder if he was always destined to become an overpaid volume scorer.   I don't like the idea of $25+ million per year for a player who doesn't impact winning.