Do Danny's moves this summer indicate he thinks we are ready?

[BudweiserCeltic]

No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

I think you're assuming a lot of Danny Ainge that doesn't quite hold true when you look at his history of making moves. Yes, he doesn't hesitate to go into tax land when needed, but he's always kept an eye on future fiscal responsibility. All you have to do is look at his moves during the Pierce-Garnett-Allen era.

[footey]

No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

Which players where out there this summer that you think would have been worth going into the luxury tax for?

If I thought this team could realistically win a title, any number of players could have been added that would have strengthened the bench, especially at the PF and C positions.  Ilyasova comes immediately to mind.  Heck bringing back Amir Johnson would have made sense or going with Lopez, McDermott or countless other guys that are the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th big on this team (not to mention Cousins, a simple phone call and he might have been a Celtic).  Getting another great shooter for the bench like Belinelli or Curry would have made a lot of sense as well. 

But you see, when you aren't all that close, those players aren't worth signing.  That is the point I was making.

Even if money and luxury tax were not an issue, I just don't see any of those guys getting regular minutes under Stevens with the depth we already have.

Lopez would be used the way Monroe was last year due to his defensive limitations. Stevens relies on centers that can rotate quickly and hit threes. Lopez would not play over Theiss and Baynes.  Amir Johnson was on his last legs when he was here before. He's even more useless now. Stevens had a hard time keeping him in back then.

Ilyasova, McDermott and Belinelli would not get minutes in our crowded rotation either. Who would they take minutes from? Tatum, Hayward and Morris, or Smart, Brown and Rozier? Is that worth going over the cap for? Would that make any difference in the playoffs when rotations generally get even shorter?

I think Ainge is fully willing to use the exceptions we have left and go into the luxury tax if a player worth using it on becomes available. It might happen after the trade deadline.

Ilyasova is a PF.  He probably is the 2nd best big man on the team if he was signed.  He is the perfect stretch 4 for this team.  He was absolutely available at a reasonable price.  He is exactly the type of player that would be in the regular rotation with an important role.  But he isn't going to elevate any team very much, so you don't sign him and go into the luxury tax to sign him.

We all know by now, Stevens doesn't run the team that way. In his mind, there are no 'power forwards'. There are bigs, swings, and ball handlers. He uses one big, who can rotate well and shoot from the outside, and many swings. Ersan would be a swing, as he could never function defensively as a big, and would not take minutes from the other swings on this squad as his defense and perimeter shooting are inferior to the other rotation swings.

so Horford is a swing? I mean him and Baynes started and played a good amount of minutes together?

Sometimes Stevens goes with two 'bigs'. They are interchangeable , neither one is a 'center' or 'power forward' when they play together.  Both of them were shooting threes and switching well on defense. Baynes and Horford both shut down Embiid in the playoffs and were nailing three pointers for example. Theiss can do the same. When Stevens goes smaller, he uses one big and adds another swing, like Morris, Tatum, Hayward, Brown, or when he goes super small, he adds another ball handler, like when he would add Rozier or Larkin instead of a big. There's really no need for Ersan.

This was a team that was within a game of going to the Finals with basically our bench. Going over the cap to add guys who won't get minutes on this super deep roster wont help. This roster is tailor-made for Stevens coaching style. Anyone you consider adding has to be within the perspective of 'do they fit on Stevens system'? Then, are they good enough to take minutes away from any of the other guys already on the roster?

There's already going to be a crunch to keep guys who played 30+ minutes a game during the playoffs last season happy when we add Kyrie, Hayward and Theiss back in the mix. Taking even more minutes away from guys like Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Baynes, and Morris for players who don't make us better is bad management.

Except those guys would in fact get minutes.  Ilyasova, for example, is absolutely better than Theis and Semi, and against many lineups would be a better option than Baynes.  He also does a lot of things a lot better than Morris (he is a better rebounder and more consistent shooter).  This notion that someone like Ilyasova wouldn't play on this team is just nonsense.  The same is also true of excellent shooters like Belinelli or Curry.  Both provide consistent long range shooting that Boston really doesn't have on its bench.  Rozier is incredibly streaky and I frankly consider Tatum a starter even if he starts on the bench.  Having another guard that can consistently hit from deep would have been great and would consistently get minutes.

Those guys would all help a contender, but Boston didn't even bother spending the MLE because I really don't think Ainge believes this team has a chance of beating Golden State or Houston, if it even gets by Toronto (who is an absolute and real threat to Boston in the East, whether this board wants to acknowledge it).

The way you overrate is Illyasova is laughable. Since the 2014-15 season he has switched teams 8 times for a reason. You cited rebounding and shooting, but numbers indicate it's much closer than you think.

Last 3 seasons

Morris RPG
5.1 - 4.6 - 5.4 (don't forget Morris was playing primarily SF in Detroit, thus less reb opportunities)
Illyasova RPG
5.4 - 5.9 - 5.9

Morris FG%
43.4 - 41.8 - 42.9
Illyasova FG%
42.4 - 43.1 - 45.2

Morris 3PT%
36.2 - 33.1 - 36.8
Illyasova 3PT%
36.3 - 35.3 - 36.0


Theis, Morris, Baynes, Rozier, and Smart. That's our bench rotation. Illyasova and Belinelli wouldn't get any playing time at all with a healthy roster. It's almost as though you missed the entire series vs Philly and didn't see how pathetic both those players were against the very players (since you didn't see it we were without Hayward, Irving, or Theis) you think they're going to get minutes from. Plus, both are basically turnstiles defensively. Illyasova can take charges, but he's a sieve otherwise.

Here's what both averaged during the series-
Illyasova
FG% 33.3
3PT% 21.4
PPG 7.8

Belinelli
FG% 34.1
3PT% 31.3
PPG 9.2

per game numbers.  really.  per 36 or RB% there is a significant difference between Morris and Ilyasova.  Significant.  Ilyasova is a much better rebounder than Morris. 

No question they had a bad series (they were both pretty good in the 5 game win over Miami though), but just for the sake of comparison how was Morris in the Philly series?  How did Horford shoot from deep?  Smart was even worse than normal offensively.  If we judge players on a 5 game series, we aren't doing a very good job (look no further than Boston's 5 game loss to the Cavs the year before when guys like Rozier, Olynyk, Bradley, etc. were terrible).

As the person who criticized Jaylen Brown’s abilities off a single game 7 vs. Cleveland, your arguments here ring hollow.

[Androslav]

We will see Ersan probably against us this next playoff. Probably in the 2nd round, I'd safely put  500$ on the table that he won't be a factor. Positive factor that is.

[bogg]

per game numbers.  really.  per 36 or RB% there is a significant difference between Morris and Ilyasova.  Significant.  Ilyasova is a much better rebounder than Morris. 

I mean, this is a rough-and-dirty way of looking at it, but the last few seasons Illyasova's posted rebound percentages of around/a little over 12 (12.9, 12.4, 11.7, and 12.0) whereas in seasons where Morris has been listed primarily as a power forward (since he's a more versatile perimeter player than Illyasova and has spent seasons primarily playing the 3 as well), and thus presumably was in a generally similar situation during games to Illyasova, his rebound percentage has hovered around 10 and change (10.3-10.9). You're talking a difference of a rebound and a half to two rebounds over the course of 100 possessions between the two, and given that Morris spends his time at both forward spots and Ersan moonlights as a very-small-ball center (and thus spends more time immediately around the basket) it's not clear the difference is even that meaningful.

Also worth noting that last season Morris and Illyasova posted almost identical DRB% (18.4 vs 18.0, with Morris actually coming out ahead) leaving the entire difference in total rebound percentage due to Ersan more than doubling Morris' offensive rebounding rate (7.6 vs 3.3), which may point further toward the difference being to some degree use-based rather than ability-based.

Meanwhile, coming back to my initial "there's really isn't anything Ersan does that either Morris or Theis can't do as well/better" argument, last season Theis posted a rebound percentage of 16.0, a mark that Illyasova hasn't hit since all the way back in 2012 (and it was the only time in his career he hit that mark).


Lastly, it continues to be puzzling that you're building your "if they really cared they'd have done into the tax for this guy" argument around a player who was signed using the non-taxpayer mid-level on day one of free agency, with Boston currently in the tax to boot.

[Hoopvortex]

I don't have strong feelings about Ilyasova vs. MMorris. Their games are different, even though you'd nominally call both of them swings, or stretch 4's, or whatever. Marcus creates shots and Ersan doesn't; that's a big difference.

Marcus, to be more exact, creates jumpshots for himself, including a lot of long midrange shots. It is definitely valuable to be able to get a shot on a given possession, even if it's a bad shot.

I think that he would help his future on the Celtics if he could make plays for his teammates, or be more efficient with the shots he creates for himself, or of course both.

About rebounding. Ahem.

Per game numbers don't control for minutes played or team tempo.

Per 36 numbers are an improvement, but they still don't control for team tempo.

Reb %s control for those two things, which is great, but I'd suggest that you also need to separate defensive from offensive rebounding numbers. They are overlapping but distinct skillsets.

bogg, to his credit, makes that distinction, pointing out that Ilyasova's edge over Morris is entirely on the offensive board, which is an excellent observation - though I'm not sure that I'm ready to attribute all of that difference, with him, to being "use-based", rather than "ability-based".

Apart from any comparisons between these two, defreb%s of 18 or so are not very good numbers, and Morris' offreb%s are really rock-bottom.

[Moranis]

No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

I think you're assuming a lot of Danny Ainge that doesn't quite hold true when you look at his history of making moves. Yes, he doesn't hesitate to go into tax land when needed, but he's always kept an eye on future fiscal responsibility. All you have to do is look at his moves during the Pierce-Garnett-Allen era.

But that is in fact my point.  Ainge doesn't hesitate to go into the tax when he has a team he thinks is truly capable of winning a title, but he didn't do that this summer.

[Moranis]

No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

Which players where out there this summer that you think would have been worth going into the luxury tax for?

If I thought this team could realistically win a title, any number of players could have been added that would have strengthened the bench, especially at the PF and C positions.  Ilyasova comes immediately to mind.  Heck bringing back Amir Johnson would have made sense or going with Lopez, McDermott or countless other guys that are the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 5th big on this team (not to mention Cousins, a simple phone call and he might have been a Celtic).  Getting another great shooter for the bench like Belinelli or Curry would have made a lot of sense as well. 

But you see, when you aren't all that close, those players aren't worth signing.  That is the point I was making.

Even if money and luxury tax were not an issue, I just don't see any of those guys getting regular minutes under Stevens with the depth we already have.

Lopez would be used the way Monroe was last year due to his defensive limitations. Stevens relies on centers that can rotate quickly and hit threes. Lopez would not play over Theiss and Baynes.  Amir Johnson was on his last legs when he was here before. He's even more useless now. Stevens had a hard time keeping him in back then.

Ilyasova, McDermott and Belinelli would not get minutes in our crowded rotation either. Who would they take minutes from? Tatum, Hayward and Morris, or Smart, Brown and Rozier? Is that worth going over the cap for? Would that make any difference in the playoffs when rotations generally get even shorter?

I think Ainge is fully willing to use the exceptions we have left and go into the luxury tax if a player worth using it on becomes available. It might happen after the trade deadline.

Ilyasova is a PF.  He probably is the 2nd best big man on the team if he was signed.  He is the perfect stretch 4 for this team.  He was absolutely available at a reasonable price.  He is exactly the type of player that would be in the regular rotation with an important role.  But he isn't going to elevate any team very much, so you don't sign him and go into the luxury tax to sign him.

We all know by now, Stevens doesn't run the team that way. In his mind, there are no 'power forwards'. There are bigs, swings, and ball handlers. He uses one big, who can rotate well and shoot from the outside, and many swings. Ersan would be a swing, as he could never function defensively as a big, and would not take minutes from the other swings on this squad as his defense and perimeter shooting are inferior to the other rotation swings.

so Horford is a swing? I mean him and Baynes started and played a good amount of minutes together?

Sometimes Stevens goes with two 'bigs'. They are interchangeable , neither one is a 'center' or 'power forward' when they play together.  Both of them were shooting threes and switching well on defense. Baynes and Horford both shut down Embiid in the playoffs and were nailing three pointers for example. Theiss can do the same. When Stevens goes smaller, he uses one big and adds another swing, like Morris, Tatum, Hayward, Brown, or when he goes super small, he adds another ball handler, like when he would add Rozier or Larkin instead of a big. There's really no need for Ersan.

This was a team that was within a game of going to the Finals with basically our bench. Going over the cap to add guys who won't get minutes on this super deep roster wont help. This roster is tailor-made for Stevens coaching style. Anyone you consider adding has to be within the perspective of 'do they fit on Stevens system'? Then, are they good enough to take minutes away from any of the other guys already on the roster?

There's already going to be a crunch to keep guys who played 30+ minutes a game during the playoffs last season happy when we add Kyrie, Hayward and Theiss back in the mix. Taking even more minutes away from guys like Rozier, Brown, Tatum, Smart, Baynes, and Morris for players who don't make us better is bad management.

Except those guys would in fact get minutes.  Ilyasova, for example, is absolutely better than Theis and Semi, and against many lineups would be a better option than Baynes.  He also does a lot of things a lot better than Morris (he is a better rebounder and more consistent shooter).  This notion that someone like Ilyasova wouldn't play on this team is just nonsense.  The same is also true of excellent shooters like Belinelli or Curry.  Both provide consistent long range shooting that Boston really doesn't have on its bench.  Rozier is incredibly streaky and I frankly consider Tatum a starter even if he starts on the bench.  Having another guard that can consistently hit from deep would have been great and would consistently get minutes.

Those guys would all help a contender, but Boston didn't even bother spending the MLE because I really don't think Ainge believes this team has a chance of beating Golden State or Houston, if it even gets by Toronto (who is an absolute and real threat to Boston in the East, whether this board wants to acknowledge it).

The way you overrate is Illyasova is laughable. Since the 2014-15 season he has switched teams 8 times for a reason. You cited rebounding and shooting, but numbers indicate it's much closer than you think.

Last 3 seasons

Morris RPG
5.1 - 4.6 - 5.4 (don't forget Morris was playing primarily SF in Detroit, thus less reb opportunities)
Illyasova RPG
5.4 - 5.9 - 5.9

Morris FG%
43.4 - 41.8 - 42.9
Illyasova FG%
42.4 - 43.1 - 45.2

Morris 3PT%
36.2 - 33.1 - 36.8
Illyasova 3PT%
36.3 - 35.3 - 36.0


Theis, Morris, Baynes, Rozier, and Smart. That's our bench rotation. Illyasova and Belinelli wouldn't get any playing time at all with a healthy roster. It's almost as though you missed the entire series vs Philly and didn't see how pathetic both those players were against the very players (since you didn't see it we were without Hayward, Irving, or Theis) you think they're going to get minutes from. Plus, both are basically turnstiles defensively. Illyasova can take charges, but he's a sieve otherwise.

Here's what both averaged during the series-
Illyasova
FG% 33.3
3PT% 21.4
PPG 7.8

Belinelli
FG% 34.1
3PT% 31.3
PPG 9.2

per game numbers.  really.  per 36 or RB% there is a significant difference between Morris and Ilyasova.  Significant.  Ilyasova is a much better rebounder than Morris. 

No question they had a bad series (they were both pretty good in the 5 game win over Miami though), but just for the sake of comparison how was Morris in the Philly series?  How did Horford shoot from deep?  Smart was even worse than normal offensively.  If we judge players on a 5 game series, we aren't doing a very good job (look no further than Boston's 5 game loss to the Cavs the year before when guys like Rozier, Olynyk, Bradley, etc. were terrible).

As the person who criticized Jaylen Brown’s abilities off a single game 7 vs. Cleveland, your arguments here ring hollow.

except I didn't do that and you know it.  I was making a point about using small windows to critique players and used Brown's game 7 as an example as to why that type of argument is silly.

[gouki88]

per game numbers.  really.  per 36 or RB% there is a significant difference between Morris and Ilyasova.  Significant.  Ilyasova is a much better rebounder than Morris. 

I mean, this is a rough-and-dirty way of looking at it, but the last few seasons Illyasova's posted rebound percentages of around/a little over 12 (12.9, 12.4, 11.7, and 12.0) whereas in seasons where Morris has been listed primarily as a power forward (since he's a more versatile perimeter player than Illyasova and has spent seasons primarily playing the 3 as well), and thus presumably was in a generally similar situation during games to Illyasova, his rebound percentage has hovered around 10 and change (10.3-10.9). You're talking a difference of a rebound and a half to two rebounds over the course of 100 possessions between the two, and given that Morris spends his time at both forward spots and Ersan moonlights as a very-small-ball center (and thus spends more time immediately around the basket) it's not clear the difference is even that meaningful.

Also worth noting that last season Morris and Illyasova posted almost identical DRB% (18.4 vs 18.0, with Morris actually coming out ahead) leaving the entire difference in total rebound percentage due to Ersan more than doubling Morris' offensive rebounding rate (7.6 vs 3.3), which may point further toward the difference being to some degree use-based rather than ability-based.

Meanwhile, coming back to my initial "there's really isn't anything Ersan does that either Morris or Theis can't do as well/better" argument, last season Theis posted a rebound percentage of 16.0, a mark that Illyasova hasn't hit since all the way back in 2012 (and it was the only time in his career he hit that mark).


Lastly, it continues to be puzzling that you're building your "if they really cared they'd have done into the tax for this guy" argument around a player who was signed using the non-taxpayer mid-level on day one of free agency, with Boston currently in the tax to boot.

TP for some actually good analysis of stats, not the laziness that's tossed around regularly

[Big333223]

Ilyasova is a PF.  He probably is the 2nd best big man on the team if he was signed.  He is the perfect stretch 4 for this team.  He was absolutely available at a reasonable price.  He is exactly the type of player that would be in the regular rotation with an important role.  But he isn't going to elevate any team very much, so you don't sign him and go into the luxury tax to sign him.

You do know that as of right now Boston's already into the luxury tax, and by rule couldn't outbid Milwaukee for Illyasova even if they had wanted to, right?

That's to say nothing of the fact that Milwaukee had more playing time available for him. The truth is that there's little-to-nothing that Illyasova does that you can't already get out of either Morris or Theis, compounded by the fact that Morris is likely the better 4 while Theis is the better 5. There isn't an easy 20 minutes a night to be found for him, while there is in Milwaukee.

However, this all ignores the real issue with your line of thinking - Illyasova wasn't some guy who hung around on the market well into the summer that Boston could have taken a chance on if they felt like it. Milwaukee came right out the gates on July 1 (meaning the deal was worked out in June) committing their non-tax MLE to him and hard-capped themselves in the process. There's zero chance Ainge would have made a redundant bench big priority 1A going into this season, hard-capped himself to pay him, and handcuffed the team in any trade talks for the full season while establishing an easy-to-identify "beat this and he's yours" benchmark for Smart's restricted free agency.

This point seems to be getting lost in this thread.

The Celtics already went into the tax to retain two of their defensive leaders (Smart and Baynes) so the idea that Ainge "avoided the tax like the plague" is completely wrong.

[Cman]

You couldnt have had a different summer than last than the one Danny had this year.

Last year, danny blew up a team that went to the ECF returning only 4 players. Alot of people were shocked as the team had been successful. But clearly Danny saw them as an over-achieving bunch who made it as far as they ever were. it was a bold move because many gm's/owners would stand pat, happy that they made it that far and for the revenue making the ECF affords.

This summer on the other hand, Danny has stood pat. He refused to offer any of his young stars in a trade for Kawhi, and resigned Marcus smart to a lucrative deal that surely will put them in the tax next year, if not this year.

To me, this indicates that Danny/ownership believes this team can contend this year against the warriors.

Yes, the Celtics are contenders. But, there is still room for improvement, provided the right player is available. At this point, though, there are probably only a handful of players that Danny would trade for. Put differently, in the past he was known as "trader Danny" but now we are going to see a different sort of Danny, the "sit tight Danny" that we saw when the core of Pierce, Garnett, Allen was here.

[hpantazo]

You couldnt have had a different summer than last than the one Danny had this year.

Last year, danny blew up a team that went to the ECF returning only 4 players. Alot of people were shocked as the team had been successful. But clearly Danny saw them as an over-achieving bunch who made it as far as they ever were. it was a bold move because many gm's/owners would stand pat, happy that they made it that far and for the revenue making the ECF affords.

This summer on the other hand, Danny has stood pat. He refused to offer any of his young stars in a trade for Kawhi, and resigned Marcus smart to a lucrative deal that surely will put them in the tax next year, if not this year.

To me, this indicates that Danny/ownership believes this team can contend this year against the warriors.

Yes, the Celtics are contenders. But, there is still room for improvement, provided the right player is available. At this point, though, there are probably only a handful of players that Danny would trade for. Put differently, in the past he was known as "trader Danny" but now we are going to see a different sort of Danny, the "sit tight Danny" that we saw when the core of Pierce, Garnett, Allen was here.

Ainge has also learned from his mistakes in that era, such as signing Jermaine Oneal, Troy Murphy, Mikki Moore, Darko Milicic, etc.

[smokeablount]

per game numbers.  really.  per 36 or RB% there is a significant difference between Morris and Ilyasova.  Significant.  Ilyasova is a much better rebounder than Morris. 

I mean, this is a rough-and-dirty way of looking at it, but the last few seasons Illyasova's posted rebound percentages of around/a little over 12 (12.9, 12.4, 11.7, and 12.0) whereas in seasons where Morris has been listed primarily as a power forward (since he's a more versatile perimeter player than Illyasova and has spent seasons primarily playing the 3 as well), and thus presumably was in a generally similar situation during games to Illyasova, his rebound percentage has hovered around 10 and change (10.3-10.9). You're talking a difference of a rebound and a half to two rebounds over the course of 100 possessions between the two, and given that Morris spends his time at both forward spots and Ersan moonlights as a very-small-ball center (and thus spends more time immediately around the basket) it's not clear the difference is even that meaningful.

Also worth noting that last season Morris and Illyasova posted almost identical DRB% (18.4 vs 18.0, with Morris actually coming out ahead) leaving the entire difference in total rebound percentage due to Ersan more than doubling Morris' offensive rebounding rate (7.6 vs 3.3), which may point further toward the difference being to some degree use-based rather than ability-based.

Meanwhile, coming back to my initial "there's really isn't anything Ersan does that either Morris or Theis can't do as well/better" argument, last season Theis posted a rebound percentage of 16.0, a mark that Illyasova hasn't hit since all the way back in 2012 (and it was the only time in his career he hit that mark).


Lastly, it continues to be puzzling that you're building your "if they really cared they'd have done into the tax for this guy" argument around a player who was signed using the non-taxpayer mid-level on day one of free agency, with Boston currently in the tax to boot.

I'm anxiously awaiting Moranis's response to this.

[bogg]

You couldnt have had a different summer than last than the one Danny had this year.

Last year, danny blew up a team that went to the ECF returning only 4 players. Alot of people were shocked as the team had been successful. But clearly Danny saw them as an over-achieving bunch who made it as far as they ever were. it was a bold move because many gm's/owners would stand pat, happy that they made it that far and for the revenue making the ECF affords.

This summer on the other hand, Danny has stood pat. He refused to offer any of his young stars in a trade for Kawhi, and resigned Marcus smart to a lucrative deal that surely will put them in the tax next year, if not this year.

To me, this indicates that Danny/ownership believes this team can contend this year against the warriors.

Yes, the Celtics are contenders. But, there is still room for improvement, provided the right player is available. At this point, though, there are probably only a handful of players that Danny would trade for. Put differently, in the past he was known as "trader Danny" but now we are going to see a different sort of Danny, the "sit tight Danny" that we saw when the core of Pierce, Garnett, Allen was here.

Ainge has also learned from his mistakes in that era, such as signing Jermaine Oneal, Troy Murphy, Mikki Moore, Darko Milicic, etc.

Jermaine O'Neal was unproductive while taking up a mid-level slot for two seasons, granted, but Murphy and Moore were (I believe) post-deadline buyout guys who got minimum contracts and Darko was a training camp invite who was waived before opening night. They don't merit mentioning in terms of "mistakes" because there wasn't anything real invested in them (unless you were a huge Luke Harangody guy, because I believe Murphy got his roster spot). 

[Boris Badenov]

No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

I think you're assuming a lot of Danny Ainge that doesn't quite hold true when you look at his history of making moves. Yes, he doesn't hesitate to go into tax land when needed, but he's always kept an eye on future fiscal responsibility. All you have to do is look at his moves during the Pierce-Garnett-Allen era.

But that is in fact my point.  Ainge doesn't hesitate to go into the tax when he has a team he thinks is truly capable of winning a title, but he didn't do that this summer.

The 07-11 era was a different animal, so Ainge's behavior then isn't a great analogy. Our window was projected to be "one more year" for the last three years of that run, so of course Danny was emptying the till.

Now, we are looking at 5-7 years of contention if things go reasonably well, and the tax bill we pay this year will affect our options in all subsequent years. The cost-benefit is different.

We also happen to have a deeper team now, and the extra talent we can get with another roster addition is lower on the margin.

[bogg]

No.  I think the opposite actually.  If Danny thought the team was truly ready to win a title he wouldn't have hesitated to go into the luxury tax and use all the exceptions.  The fact that he avoided the tax like the plague says to me that he doesn't think the team is truly ready to win a title and thus he didn't want to start the tax clock ticking on a team that wasn't likely to win the title.  He isn't giving up on the season and the Celtics clearly have a very good shot at coming out of the East, but when you have exceptions and there are players out there that could help, and you don't use them, that says a lot.

I think you're assuming a lot of Danny Ainge that doesn't quite hold true when you look at his history of making moves. Yes, he doesn't hesitate to go into tax land when needed, but he's always kept an eye on future fiscal responsibility. All you have to do is look at his moves during the Pierce-Garnett-Allen era.

But that is in fact my point.  Ainge doesn't hesitate to go into the tax when he has a team he thinks is truly capable of winning a title, but he didn't do that this summer.

The 07-11 era was a different animal, so Ainge's behavior then isn't a great analogy. Our window was projected to be "one more year" for the last three years of that run, so of course Danny was emptying the till.

Now, we are looking at 5-7 years of contention if things go reasonably well, and the tax bill we pay this year will affect our options in all subsequent years. The cost-benefit is different.

We also happen to have a deeper team now, and the extra talent we can get with another roster addition is lower on the margin.

Also, and this can't be stressed enough, Boston is currently a taxpaying team this year.