Kawhi likely stays in Toronto. He bought a house there. He has a whole nation behind him. And Toronto is a very nice city, Americans wildly underrate its appeal. It is clean, safe, the women are beautiful, the food is excellent. Canadians also have an infectiously cheerful view of winter. Take a walk on any winter day and see the kids in the parks playing hockey and soccer.
And the team is good. The fans are great. Enthusiastic but forgiving. Perhaps too forgiving. Perfect for his low-key persona. Maybe he splits for the Clippers, but he probably stays.
I think Durant stays as well. He is getting plenty of credit for the Warriors success. All the time I read about how he is definitely a top-2-or-3 player. The narrative on him has changed. He elevated that team. And if Draymond really is a problem behind the scenes the team can ship him out easily enough to appease Durant.
KD could lead the best dynasty since the 90's Bulls. Yeah, if he leaves and wins he could claim he did it "on his own." But by default he is not winning without elite help. He failed year after year in OKC playing alongside all-stars. He's not LeBron and will never be good enough to do it on his own.
He is winning now and could become a legend. If he leaves and fails it would do enormous damage to his legacy.
I think he stays.