JB’s Progress

[Moranis]

Rather than just using a single prior year, career numbers seems like a better comparison and they are fairly close on those shooting as Ingram definitely has more variance in his outside shooting i.e. prone to poor years like last year or excellent years like this year (in more limited games).  His first two years in New Orleans he shot 38.6% on 6.2 attempts per game, which is in the similar range as Brown's two best consecutive shooting seasons.  If you take last year and thus far this year, Ingram is about a percent better from 3 at 35.7 vs. 34.8.  Brown has been much better from 2 but worse from the line and as such they have fairly similar points per shot over the last two (Brown is approximately 0.01 better).  Brown has been a touch better rebounding, but Ingram has continued to be a much better passer. 

They are fairly similar players, value is about the same, but I'd prefer Ingram's fit next to Tatum.  The toe injury is very concerning.

Oh so basically if you pick and choose what years you want to look at you can find years where Ingram is a better shooter. For their whole career, not cherry picking data, Ingram is 36.5% from three and Brown is 36.7%. Ingram is probably a pretty similar shooter to Brown, he's not clearly better.

I don't know this feels like a lateral move for a guy who is a worse fit, has never played on a winning team, and less healthy. Doesn't seem wise.

I just used this year since you know it is this year, but it is only 15 games for Ingram so a small sample size. 

[celticsclay]

Got to ask, in what world do the lakers want assets on top of a currently injured davis for brown? This seems pretty silly. In addition all his injuries he is almost 4 years older than brown. Has any always injured players ever become an iron man in their 30’s?

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

Got to ask, in what world do the lakers want assets on top of a currently injured davis for brown? This seems pretty silly. In addition all his injuries he is almost 4 years older than brown. Has any always injured players ever become an iron man in their 30’s?

Moranis doesn’t care for JB. Roy thinks he is similar to Kyrie. Are there other posters that feel this way?

[Neurotic Guy]

Got to ask, in what world do the lakers want assets on top of a currently injured davis for brown? This seems pretty silly. In addition all his injuries he is almost 4 years older than brown. Has any always injured players ever become an iron man in their 30’s?

Moranis doesn’t care for JB. Roy thinks he is similar to Kyrie. Are there other posters that feel this way?

I think Moranus’ reasoning was more along the lines of Anthony Davis is such a force when healthy that it’d be hard to pass up an opportunity to get him and still have a championship roster.  It’s a gamble (health-wise) that he’d take. It’s not a gamble others would.

I think it’s crazy not to consider Brown for Davis - even if the Cs throw in a couple of 2nds.  I trust Brad mountains before I trust me, so if he thought it a good gamble, I’d be excited.  Without knowing with 100% certainty the fit or the personality impact, the potential dominance of a front court with Tatum, Davis, Rob, and Al is worth a daydream or 2.

[Goldstar88]

Got to ask, in what world do the lakers want assets on top of a currently injured davis for brown? This seems pretty silly. In addition all his injuries he is almost 4 years older than brown. Has any always injured players ever become an iron man in their 30’s?

Moranis doesn’t care for JB. Roy thinks he is similar to Kyrie. Are there other posters that feel this way?

I think Moranus’ reasoning was more along the lines of Anthony Davis is such a force when healthy that it’d be hard to pass up an opportunity to get him and still have a championship roster.  It’s a gamble (health-wise) that he’d take. It’s not a gamble others would.

I think it’s crazy not to consider Brown for Davis - even if the Cs throw in a couple of 2nds.  I trust Brad mountains before I trust me, so if he thought it a good gamble, I’d be excited.  Without knowing with 100% certainty the fit or the personality impact, the potential dominance of a front court with Tatum, Davis, Rob, and Al is worth a daydream or 2.

He is a force when healthy, but that’s the problem. He’s never healthy. Last two seasons combined he played 76 games. Has already missed a boat load of time this year and still isn’t back on the court. It amazes  me how people want a guy that’s rarely available, a max player, and about to turn 30. Doesn’t make sense.

[celticsclay]

Got to ask, in what world do the lakers want assets on top of a currently injured davis for brown? This seems pretty silly. In addition all his injuries he is almost 4 years older than brown. Has any always injured players ever become an iron man in their 30’s?

Moranis doesn’t care for JB. Roy thinks he is similar to Kyrie. Are there other posters that feel this way?

I think Moranus’ reasoning was more along the lines of Anthony Davis is such a force when healthy that it’d be hard to pass up an opportunity to get him and still have a championship roster.  It’s a gamble (health-wise) that he’d take. It’s not a gamble others would.

I think it’s crazy not to consider Brown for Davis - even if the Cs throw in a couple of 2nds.  I trust Brad mountains before I trust me, so if he thought it a good gamble, I’d be excited.  Without knowing with 100% certainty the fit or the personality impact, the potential dominance of a front court with Tatum, Davis, Rob, and Al is worth a daydream or 2.

He is a force when healthy, but that’s the problem. He’s never healthy. Last two seasons combined he played 76 games. Has already missed a boat load of time this year and still isn’t back on the court. It amazes  me how people want a guy that’s rarely available, a max player, and about to turn 30. Doesn’t make sense.

Yeah this is what I am getting at and it is baffling. We aren’t looking at a small sample size with Davis injuries and he is only getting older with a bigger injury history. Is there any history of a guy turning his injury history around like this in this thirties. Grant hill did, but he did it as a role player.

[Phantom255x]

Love JB, but the two biggest issues are FTs and dribbling... and I'm not that sure he's improved on those as much recently... there are still times he dribbles the ball and just loses it and turns it over which is very annoying. And he did it a lot in last year's postseason too

[GreenlyGreeny]

Love JB, but the two biggest issues are FTs and dribbling... and I'm not that sure he's improved on those as much recently... there are still times he dribbles the ball and just loses it and turns it over which is very annoying. And he did it a lot in last year's postseason too

The biggest reason I’ve wanted to trade him is because he clearly does not have the BBIQ of a guy who is a #2 on a championship squad, and I don’t know if it’s possible to win a title with our second best player having one of the lower, if not the lowest, BBIQs among the league’s all-stars…

One of the biggest indicators of BBIQ is the ratio of steals to turnovers, with a ratio in excess of one being Einstein and 0.5-0.9 being genius, 0.40-0.49 being above average, 0.30-0.39 being average, 0.15-0.29 below average, and below 0.15 being Alicia Silverstone in Clueless. There are exceptions for some superstars who get double-teamed a lot, and there are other metrics that have to be weighted too. But this is the biggest one and JB’s metric since the last two years is utterly average, around 0.35 —not good for an all-star because once his athleticism starts to fade around 30, without that BBIQ he’s going to have a hard time making it to age 35 in the league. The maddening part is this was not an issue so much before last year, so I don’t know if it’s post-Covid brain, putting too much pressure on himself in playing for his next contract, prioritizing his scoring stats above all else, personal issues, a combination or what.

BBIQ aside, we need to have confidence we can put the ball in the hands of our two best players at the end of games, but JB’s FT % is not worthy of such confidence (and the turnovers near the end of tight games against elite teams are a psychological killer). He should have spent the entire off-season working on his FT % and figuring out how to up his steals and minimize his turnovers. Instead, he clearly just kept working on the Kobe-esque shooting flash. Sad.

[MarcusSmartFanClub]

JB continues to silence the haters. Big FTs, big time game for a big time player.

[Somebody]

Got to ask, in what world do the lakers want assets on top of a currently injured davis for brown? This seems pretty silly. In addition all his injuries he is almost 4 years older than brown. Has any always injured players ever become an iron man in their 30’s?

Moranis doesn’t care for JB. Roy thinks he is similar to Kyrie. Are there other posters that feel this way?

I think Moranus’ reasoning was more along the lines of Anthony Davis is such a force when healthy that it’d be hard to pass up an opportunity to get him and still have a championship roster.  It’s a gamble (health-wise) that he’d take. It’s not a gamble others would.

I think it’s crazy not to consider Brown for Davis - even if the Cs throw in a couple of 2nds.  I trust Brad mountains before I trust me, so if he thought it a good gamble, I’d be excited.  Without knowing with 100% certainty the fit or the personality impact, the potential dominance of a front court with Tatum, Davis, Rob, and Al is worth a daydream or 2.

I agree - AD was an incredible force in 2020 and he was arguably the best player in the league that year. My main concern would be his health - we'd only have so many cracks at winning a title with him nearing 30 and it isn't unlikely that he gets hamstrung by injuries for all of our next 3-4 runs with him as our #1.

[Kernewek]

One of the biggest indicators of BBIQ is the ratio of steals to turnovers, with a ratio in excess of one being Einstein and 0.5-0.9 being genius, 0.40-0.49 being above average, 0.30-0.39 being average, 0.15-0.29 below average, and below 0.15 being Alicia Silverstone in Clueless. There are exceptions for some superstars who get double-teamed a lot, and there are other metrics that have to be weighted too.

This is interesting. Anyone have the time to do some analysis of how JB's contemporaries (let's just say all stars) stack up?

[#1P4P]

Similar to the Lebron and Kyrie dilemma, JT’s the better player, but JB’s the better option in the 4th quarter and should be the closer.

In the 4th quarter, when the pace of the game slows, spacing tightens, and conditioning is tested, Jaylen is better suited for those situations. He’s better at breaking his man down in isolation, getting to his spots, and getting a good shot off (this is backed by 4th quarter stats with Jaylen shooting +6.2% in FG% and +4.8% in 3P%).

JT’s struggled in late game situations with decision making against double teams, getting through tight driving lanes, and reading off ball defenders closing passing lanes when he drives. Jaylen doesn’t have those problems because he doesn’t get doubled, look to pass, and gets a good shot off (especially now that he’s one of the best midrange shooters in the NBA).

[Roy H.]

Similar to the Lebron and Kyrie dilemma, JT’s the better player, but JB’s the better option in the 4th quarter and should be the closer.

In the 4th quarter, when the pace of the game slows, spacing tightens, and conditioning is tested, Jaylen is better suited for those situations. He’s better at breaking his man down in isolation, getting to his spots, and getting a good shot off (this is backed by 4th quarter stats with Jaylen shooting +6.2% in FG% and +4.8% in 3P%).

JT’s struggled in late game situations with decision making against double teams, getting through tight driving lanes, and reading off ball defenders closing passing lanes when he drives. Jaylen doesn’t have those problems because he doesn’t get doubled, look to pass, and gets a good shot off (especially now that he’s one of the best midrange shooters in the NBA).

I’d be interested in seeing stats on this. 

EDIT:  JT and JB are both really good in the 4th, apparently.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=who+has+scored+the+most+4th-quarter+points+this+season

[LilRip]

Similar to the Lebron and Kyrie dilemma, JT’s the better player, but JB’s the better option in the 4th quarter and should be the closer.

In the 4th quarter, when the pace of the game slows, spacing tightens, and conditioning is tested, Jaylen is better suited for those situations. He’s better at breaking his man down in isolation, getting to his spots, and getting a good shot off (this is backed by 4th quarter stats with Jaylen shooting +6.2% in FG% and +4.8% in 3P%).

JT’s struggled in late game situations with decision making against double teams, getting through tight driving lanes, and reading off ball defenders closing passing lanes when he drives. Jaylen doesn’t have those problems because he doesn’t get doubled, look to pass, and gets a good shot off (especially now that he’s one of the best midrange shooters in the NBA).

I’d be interested in seeing stats on this. 

EDIT:  JT and JB are both really good in the 4th, apparently.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=who+has+scored+the+most+4th-quarter+points+this+season

Doesn’t surprise me. I don’t know how people think that JT isn’t clutch. Plus, JT gets doubled a lot. If JB got doubled as much as JT did, we’d see higher turnovers from him. Tatum has franchise player and MVP candidate written all over him and Brown is an allstar. JB is really good but this year, the separation between them has grown.

[Vermont Green]

Similar to the Lebron and Kyrie dilemma, JT’s the better player, but JB’s the better option in the 4th quarter and should be the closer.

In the 4th quarter, when the pace of the game slows, spacing tightens, and conditioning is tested, Jaylen is better suited for those situations. He’s better at breaking his man down in isolation, getting to his spots, and getting a good shot off (this is backed by 4th quarter stats with Jaylen shooting +6.2% in FG% and +4.8% in 3P%).

JT’s struggled in late game situations with decision making against double teams, getting through tight driving lanes, and reading off ball defenders closing passing lanes when he drives. Jaylen doesn’t have those problems because he doesn’t get doubled, look to pass, and gets a good shot off (especially now that he’s one of the best midrange shooters in the NBA).

I’d be interested in seeing stats on this. 

EDIT:  JT and JB are both really good in the 4th, apparently.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=who+has+scored+the+most+4th-quarter+points+this+season

Doesn’t surprise me. I don’t know how people think that JT isn’t clutch. Plus, JT gets doubled a lot. If JB got doubled as much as JT did, we’d see higher turnovers from him. Tatum has franchise player and MVP candidate written all over him and Brown is an allstar. JB is really good but this year, the separation between them has grown.

Teams focus on stopping Tatum.  It is going to be tougher for him to score in the 4th but that is what stars need to do.  If you go through the list top 4th qtr scorers, it is pretty much all stars but how is Franz Wagner in that mix?

You can sort that list by the per game scoring to normalize for games played.  The Celtics have 2 in the top 10 in per game 4th qtr scoring.  Of course, Tatum and Brown have not played all the same games.  Some games it is just one of them.  Brown is 3rd in 4th qtr 3P%, Tatum is 9th.  Both very good.  Brown (+119) and Tatum (+113) are 2nd and 3rd in 4th qtr +/-.  Garland is first (+127).  Kyrie for example is -2.  I think this list is based on a total point sort, so it may not be catching everything for other categories.