JB’s Progress

[td450]

JB is a star. His shooting, his skill set, his defense is on high level for sure. Where he still lacks is decision making. Lose ball, contested shots, bad pass, usually comes after bad decision in a moment. That's what still makes difference between him and JT.

I don't think that is his issue. He's not a bad decision maker at all.

For a player with his level of talent, he has substantial flaws with his footwork and balance. He doesn't get his feet up off the floor when he runs, and he stumbles a lot for an elite scorer. He often sets a problematic pivot foot. He's only able to perform so well because he is truly gifted at shooting slightly off balance. Most of what are seen as decision making or handle problems are really struggles with balance.

That being said, he's pretty great at making up for it, and when he does get his balance and pivoting right, he looks very nearly Jordan-like out there. These are issues that can be worked on. Most players improve their footwork as they age.

[Neurotic Guy]

Not too many players I’d trade JB for straight up today.  Giannis, Luka, Jokic, Morant, probably Embiid. A couple young superstars in waiting - Mobley; Banchero.

After that, it’s either a firm no or it’s a not sure. That includes George, Booker, Young, Leonard, Bam, Butler, KAT, Durant, Middleton, Beal, Davis, Hardin, Curry, Zion, Mitchel or Lebron.

I figure if there aren’t too many players I’d rather have than Jaylen, he must be pretty good.

I imagine Moranis’ list is pretty long.

[slamtheking]

Not too many players I’d trade JB for straight up today.  Giannis, Luka, Jokic, Morant, probably Embiid. A couple young superstars in waiting - Mobley; Banchero.

After that, it’s either a firm no or it’s a not sure. That includes George, Booker, Young, Leonard, Bam, Butler, KAT, Durant, Middleton, Beal, Davis, Hardin, Curry, Zion, Mitchel or Lebron.

I figure if there aren’t too many players I’d rather have than Jaylen, he must be pretty good.

I imagine Moranis’ list is pretty long.

going by his long history of talent assessment, that'd be anyone not in a celtic uniform

[Roy H.]

I don’t think there’s another #2 that I’d trade JB for.  Having him is a luxury that most teams don’t have.

[Moranis]

I don’t think there’s another #2 that I’d trade JB for.  Having him is a luxury that most teams don’t have.

For put #2 guys on their teams and considering both this year and long term there aren't many I'd swap Brown for.  I think Davis, even with the health issues, is a guy that would be too hard to pass up.  Additionally, I'd think pretty long about Ingram or Towns.  Ingram's health is a bit concerning and Towns mentality gives me pause, but the talent is pretty equivalent.  I'd probably take Garland or Mobley as more of a long term play (whoever you consider the 2 in Cleveland), but we'd take a step back this year doing that.  If we didn't have Rob, then Bam would be a consideration, but he can't play with Rob.  The only other 2's you could even think about would be Murray and then the older guys like Harden, Irving, Klay, and George, though I don't really like the fit or health of the older guys such that I'd rather keep Brown.  Murray would be somewhat intriguing, but I'd worry about the fit of the rest of the roster if it was just a straight 1 for 1. 

[keevsnick]

I don’t think there’s another #2 that I’d trade JB for.  Having him is a luxury that most teams don’t have.

For put #2 guys on their teams and considering both this year and long term there aren't many I'd swap Brown for.  I think Davis, even with the health issues, is a guy that would be too hard to pass up.  Additionally, I'd think pretty long about Ingram or Towns.  Ingram's health is a bit concerning and Towns mentality gives me pause, but the talent is pretty equivalent.  I'd probably take Garland or Mobley as more of a long term play (whoever you consider the 2 in Cleveland), but we'd take a step back this year doing that.  If we didn't have Rob, then Bam would be a consideration, but he can't play with Rob.  The only other 2's you could even think about would be Murray and then the older guys like Harden, Irving, Klay, and George, though I don't really like the fit or health of the older guys such that I'd rather keep Brown.  Murray would be somewhat intriguing, but I'd worry about the fit of the rest of the roster if it was just a straight 1 for 1.

I just don't think there's anyway you can trade Brown for Davis. He for sure a better player but the guy just does not stay healthy. He is also far more expensive right now. That matters to a team way over the tax.

Towns is a hard no. Centers that are actively bad defensively are just too hard to win with. Thats a defensive position, if a guy is bad defensively he basically has to be one of the best offensive players in the history of the league (like Jokic) to be worth it.

Everybody else isn't as good as Brown right now, which is a non-starter for a team trying to win now or is older/more expensive which also makes no sense.

[Moranis]

I don’t think there’s another #2 that I’d trade JB for.  Having him is a luxury that most teams don’t have.

For put #2 guys on their teams and considering both this year and long term there aren't many I'd swap Brown for.  I think Davis, even with the health issues, is a guy that would be too hard to pass up.  Additionally, I'd think pretty long about Ingram or Towns.  Ingram's health is a bit concerning and Towns mentality gives me pause, but the talent is pretty equivalent.  I'd probably take Garland or Mobley as more of a long term play (whoever you consider the 2 in Cleveland), but we'd take a step back this year doing that.  If we didn't have Rob, then Bam would be a consideration, but he can't play with Rob.  The only other 2's you could even think about would be Murray and then the older guys like Harden, Irving, Klay, and George, though I don't really like the fit or health of the older guys such that I'd rather keep Brown.  Murray would be somewhat intriguing, but I'd worry about the fit of the rest of the roster if it was just a straight 1 for 1.

I just don't think there's anyway you can trade Brown for Davis. He for sure a better player but the guy just does not stay healthy. He is also far more expensive right now. That matters to a team way over the tax.

Towns is a hard no. Centers that are actively bad defensively are just too hard to win with. Thats a defensive position, if a guy is bad defensively he basically has to be one of the best offensive players in the history of the league (like Jokic) to be worth it.

Everybody else isn't as good as Brown right now, which is a non-starter for a team trying to win now or is older/more expensive which also makes no sense.

If wining a championship is the goal then money shouldn't be an object.  The health of Davis is obviously a real concern, but you'd pretty much have to do Brown for Davis.  That said, I don't think that would ever happen as the Lakers would want more than Brown and that is where that stuff starts to become tricky.

Towns is a poor defender, but I do think he could play with Rob so I'd feel ok with that duo going forward and what Towns can do on offense is incredible.

I think Ingram is every bit as good as Brown.  He is a better outside shooter and a much better passer, both of which make him a better off the ball player and a better fit with Tatum.  Brown is better defensively, but I think Ingram's more versatile offensive skill set and better shooter overall give him a slight edge as a player.  Ingram, though, is hurt and they haven't really said when he will back (though he is apparently practicing).  Toe injuries though can be problems for years as they can sometimes leave weak points and get reinjured (not always).  You also usually don't miss 2 months for a toe injury, so that is concerning. 

[Kernewek]

Health is too big of a concern I think when you're talking about ADNP. It's a bit silly to put an asterisk on the bubble season in general but there's a reason why the Lakers won their championship in Florida - lots of guys are great players when they don't have to travel around, but that's part of the game, and Davis just doesn't stay healthy in general.

[Sophomore]

On the lockedon Celtics podcast today, they said the Cs are plus six per hundred possessions this year when Jaylen is in the lineup without Tatum. I don’t know how to check/confirm that but I assume it’s right.

[LilRip]

JB has worked hard on his game and it shows. His IQ on both ends of the floor are probably the weakest part to his game and unfortunately, is probably one of the hardest to work on in the offseason.

On offense, he probably registers the most “bad” turnovers among our regular ballhandlers (although Smart could give him a run for his money at times). Thank goodness he’s rarely doubled or pressed the way Tatum is. And on defense, he’s the most liable to get lost or miss a rotation. He’s not trash, and he is a terrific on-ball defender, but getting lost does seem to happen the most with him.

[Hoopvortex]

I think Ingram is every bit as good as Brown.  He is a better outside shooter and a much better passer, both of which make him a better off the ball player and a better fit with Tatum.

First of all, this is a really interesting comparison. Since they went 2-3 in the same draft and are both starting wings there is a lot of basis for it; and since a lot of their statistics are similar it looks worth a deeper dive.

I like to play GM, and a GM is always making choices between two players; but I don't subscribe to the usual one-dimensional rankings that people use. Even if you just use hard numbers, no matter how sophisticated (problematic, but understandable - and I guess you have to start somewhere), you seldom have an equal basis for comparing two players. With Jaylen vs. Brandon, there's at least an argument for comparability.

But let's compare as equally as we can. If you use Ingram's 22-23 stats, it's hard to justify, since he's only played 15 games; while his 3-pt% is at a gaudy .427, for example, that is way out of line with his previous season or his career norms. As a basis for comparison, it's most logical to compare their most recent full seasons, i.e. 21-22.

As usual, Jaylen logged more minutes and more games played, so per game and total numbers have to be adjusted for, but what else can we do? And it's much better than comparing Brandon's few games this season to a big body of work from Jaylen.

Brown is better defensively, but I think Ingram's more versatile offensive skill set and better shooter overall give him a slight edge as a player. 

I agree that Brown is better defensively (I would say "much better", but that's something I don't have good means to quantify) - but less versatile on offense? Better shooter?!

Firstly to the most obvious numbers: Jaylen shot a tick over league-average from 3, at .358, while Brandon shot below replacement, at .327. Furthermore, Jaylen had to create more of those shots himself (.759 vs. .892 assisted) off the dribble, meaning that they were on the whole more difficult shots.

Brandon shot a replacement .501 from two, vs. Jaylen's .544. Jaylen got to the rim more often, and was a much better finisher, apropos of versatility. Brandon had a make at the rim every 19.9 minutes, while Jaylen had one every 16.8 minutes.

Jaylen is a better ballhandler. He has more repertoire and more moves, and he attacks more. Even as he got to the rim more often, he also had fewer offensive fouls; and it wasn't close: at one every 123.3 minutes compared to Ingram's 81.3, he was almost exactly 50% better.

By considering only the 21-22 season we are not accounting for Jaylen's remarkable new effectiveness this year on both short and long midrange shots - again apropos of his versatility.

On the other hand, Ingram got lots of his points at the line, sporting a golden .329 FTr and an A-plus FT% of .826 - compared to Jaylen at a middling .261 FTr and a grade-B FT% of .758. This is the one shooting area - and an important one - where Brandon was better.

You say that Brandon is a better passer; here you're on firmer ground, I think. Obviously AST% is a proxy for that, though an imperfect one; and here Brandon has a clear advantage. He had a point guard number of 27.8; if he were on the Celtics he'd have only Marcus Smart to beat. While that's a stark outlier in his career, he did sustain that for the 55 games he played; and his career average of 18.4 is still better than Jaylen's best, which he logged in 21-22.

Jaylen's 17.9 is a respectable number for a scoring wing, but clearly a level below Ingram. On the other hand, Jaylen had a substantially better season for bad passes; he threw a bad pass every 30 minutes, while Brandon had one every 27.9, dulling some of the luster of his AST% advantage.

Ingram, though, is hurt and they haven't really said when he will back (though he is apparently practicing).  ... so that is concerning.

I agree, it's concerning. Unfortunately, this is a career-long pattern for him. I'm always reluctant to label a player as "fragile" - there are just too many exceptions and too much unpredictable random stuff that goes on in an NBA season - but he hasn't played more than 62 games since he was a rookie.

And while you couldn't call Jaylen Brown an Ironman, it's looking like he'll have played a season's worth of games in his career more than Ingram by the end of this season (the gap is currently 62 games); of course that is only in the regular season, and obviously if you include playoffs games Brown is miles ahead).

Brown's clear superiority on the defensive end is a more critical part of his value for the Boston Celtics for me, perhaps, than for you, I think. Perhaps I overvalue it - I see it as contributing to everyone's sense of shared sacrifice, not just an individual contribution to winning on the court. It makes a difference in the dog days late in the season when everyone's beat up and searching their hearts for another effort on another possession.

[Moranis]

Rather than just using a single prior year, career numbers seems like a better comparison and they are fairly close on those shooting as Ingram definitely has more variance in his outside shooting i.e. prone to poor years like last year or excellent years like this year (in more limited games).  His first two years in New Orleans he shot 38.6% on 6.2 attempts per game, which is in the similar range as Brown's two best consecutive shooting seasons.  If you take last year and thus far this year, Ingram is about a percent better from 3 at 35.7 vs. 34.8.  Brown has been much better from 2 but worse from the line and as such they have fairly similar points per shot over the last two (Brown is approximately 0.01 better).  Brown has been a touch better rebounding, but Ingram has continued to be a much better passer. 

They are fairly similar players, value is about the same, but I'd prefer Ingram's fit next to Tatum.  The toe injury is very concerning.

[Hoopvortex]

Rather than just using a single prior year, career numbers seems like a better comparison and they are fairly close on those shooting as Ingram definitely has more variance in his outside shooting i.e. prone to poor years like last year or excellent years like this year (in more limited games).  His first two years in New Orleans he shot 38.6% on 6.2 attempts per game, which is in the similar range as Brown's two best consecutive shooting seasons.  If you take last year and thus far this year, Ingram is about a percent better from 3 at 35.7 vs. 34.8.  Brown has been much better from 2 but worse from the line and as such they have fairly similar points per shot over the last two (Brown is approximately 0.01 better).  Brown has been a touch better rebounding, but Ingram has continued to be a much better passer. 

They are fairly similar players, value is about the same, but I'd prefer Ingram's fit next to Tatum.  The toe injury is very concerning.

You make good points, of course, including their similarity. It was certainly worth responding at length, and your arguments are always both provocative and thoughtful, a valuable contribution.

While I'm not persuaded about Ingram's superior compatibility with Jayson, I would agree that you could make a case. But all other things considered, Brown's defensive edge is for me decisive.

[keevsnick]

Rather than just using a single prior year, career numbers seems like a better comparison and they are fairly close on those shooting as Ingram definitely has more variance in his outside shooting i.e. prone to poor years like last year or excellent years like this year (in more limited games).  His first two years in New Orleans he shot 38.6% on 6.2 attempts per game, which is in the similar range as Brown's two best consecutive shooting seasons.  If you take last year and thus far this year, Ingram is about a percent better from 3 at 35.7 vs. 34.8.  Brown has been much better from 2 but worse from the line and as such they have fairly similar points per shot over the last two (Brown is approximately 0.01 better).  Brown has been a touch better rebounding, but Ingram has continued to be a much better passer. 

They are fairly similar players, value is about the same, but I'd prefer Ingram's fit next to Tatum.  The toe injury is very concerning.

Oh so basically if you pick and choose what years you want to look at you can find years where Ingram is a better shooter. For their whole career, not cherry picking data, Ingram is 36.5% from three and Brown is 36.7%. Ingram is probably a pretty similar shooter to Brown, he's not clearly better.

I don't know this feels like a lateral move for a guy who is a worse fit, has never played on a winning team, and less healthy. Doesn't seem wise.

[keevsnick]

I don’t think there’s another #2 that I’d trade JB for.  Having him is a luxury that most teams don’t have.

For put #2 guys on their teams and considering both this year and long term there aren't many I'd swap Brown for.  I think Davis, even with the health issues, is a guy that would be too hard to pass up.  Additionally, I'd think pretty long about Ingram or Towns.  Ingram's health is a bit concerning and Towns mentality gives me pause, but the talent is pretty equivalent.  I'd probably take Garland or Mobley as more of a long term play (whoever you consider the 2 in Cleveland), but we'd take a step back this year doing that.  If we didn't have Rob, then Bam would be a consideration, but he can't play with Rob.  The only other 2's you could even think about would be Murray and then the older guys like Harden, Irving, Klay, and George, though I don't really like the fit or health of the older guys such that I'd rather keep Brown.  Murray would be somewhat intriguing, but I'd worry about the fit of the rest of the roster if it was just a straight 1 for 1.

I just don't think there's anyway you can trade Brown for Davis. He for sure a better player but the guy just does not stay healthy. He is also far more expensive right now. That matters to a team way over the tax.

Towns is a hard no. Centers that are actively bad defensively are just too hard to win with. Thats a defensive position, if a guy is bad defensively he basically has to be one of the best offensive players in the history of the league (like Jokic) to be worth it.

Everybody else isn't as good as Brown right now, which is a non-starter for a team trying to win now or is older/more expensive which also makes no sense.

If wining a championship is the goal then money shouldn't be an object.  The health of Davis is obviously a real concern, but you'd pretty much have to do Brown for Davis.  That said, I don't think that would ever happen as the Lakers would want more than Brown and that is where that stuff starts to become tricky.

Towns is a poor defender, but I do think he could play with Rob so I'd feel ok with that duo going forward and what Towns can do on offense is incredible.

I think Ingram is every bit as good as Brown.  He is a better outside shooter and a much better passer, both of which make him a better off the ball player and a better fit with Tatum.  Brown is better defensively, but I think Ingram's more versatile offensive skill set and better shooter overall give him a slight edge as a player.  Ingram, though, is hurt and they haven't really said when he will back (though he is apparently practicing).  Toe injuries though can be problems for years as they can sometimes leave weak points and get reinjured (not always).  You also usually don't miss 2 months for a toe injury, so that is concerning.

Well like I said, I don't think almost any of this is right but to each his own i suppose.