Similar to the Lebron and Kyrie dilemma, JT’s the better player, but JB’s the better option in the 4th quarter and should be the closer.
In the 4th quarter, when the pace of the game slows, spacing tightens, and conditioning is tested, Jaylen is better suited for those situations. He’s better at breaking his man down in isolation, getting to his spots, and getting a good shot off (this is backed by 4th quarter stats with Jaylen shooting +6.2% in FG% and +4.8% in 3P%).
JT’s struggled in late game situations with decision making against double teams, getting through tight driving lanes, and reading off ball defenders closing passing lanes when he drives. Jaylen doesn’t have those problems because he doesn’t get doubled, look to pass, and gets a good shot off (especially now that he’s one of the best midrange shooters in the NBA).
I don’t really buy this at all. To me Tatum is by far the better closer, as he’s much better at getting to the line, much better at knocking down free throws when needed, and is a much better and more willing passer.
I think any difference you see in their stats or efficiency in those situations is primarily due to the fact that Tatum has reached the level that they almost always try to double him in those situations to take the ball out of his hands. And that’s partly why he’s so fatigued of late and having lackluster efficiency due to carrying such a heavy load all season. And Brown is the primary benefactor of that doubling, as it gives him more room and opportunity to work.
If teams are doubling Tatum in the 4th and making him less efficient than Brown while Brown isn't being doubled, Brown is the better option to close.
This season, 55.4% of Jaylen's FGM in the 4th are unassisted to Jayson's 47.1%. If he's making more unassisted FG in the 4th, he's creating his own looks more often than not, creating them more often than JT, and is more efficient. So JB being "the primary benefactor, as it gives him more room and opportunity to work", is dubious.
TS% includes FTA and Jaylen's outperformed Jayson in TS% since the 2021-22 playoffs.
Assuming that Isolation and P&R are the most common play types in the 4th, Jaylen is 0.93 and 1.03 as the P&R Handler (for the entire game) while Jayson is 0.91 and 0.88, respectively. Tatum and Brown great players, but I'm not going to turn a blind eye to Brown's 4th quarter prowess because you "don't buy it".
