1% or less ...
5. Boston
I'd arbitrarily say higher than 1%, because there's always the possibility that Durant really insists on being traded, the Nets give in, and Boston has the best reported offer.
But, I agree with you that the most likely scenario, by far, seems to be Durant staying in Brooklyn, at least until the season starts. Once we get to January 15, if Durant still wants to be moved maybe the Suns revisit Ayton + Bridges + picks.
Instead of trading Brown + White + #1 for Durant, I hope that we look elsewhere if we make an in-season trade. Like, White + #1 for Harrison Barnes. That may be an overpay, but in terms of a net acquisition, I'd much rather have Brown + Barnes than Durant.