Celtics offseason needs to focus on 8th man

[Sketch5]

8th men never move the needle.  Boston needs a better top end of the rotation to truly compete for championships going forward.

If the Celtics had a Terrance Ross(2021 version not this past season) or Luke Kennard on their roster this past season in place of Pritchard or Nesmith I think they beat the Warriors.

I don't.  Boston lost because they couldn't stop turning the ball over and GS was quite simply better.  Curry was the best player on the floor and Wiggins did a masterful job on both ends against Tatum.  Brown was widely inconsistent, but compared to Horford's inconsistency he was stable.  Smart and Williams can't hit the broad side of a barn away from the rim. 

Boston's issue is the top end talent just isn't good enough.  Upgrading the bench, isn't going to make Boston a champion, upgrading the starters might.

Yes cutting the turn overs down would have helped a lot. But when your main bench guys in games 5&6 score 4 and 5 points you wont win many games. If they would have scored 20pts between White/Grant/Prtichard along with cutting 5 turn overs down, you win.

Wiggins did a great job on Tatum, but the D could also collapse in the paint cause they were only really worried about Brown hitting shots from the out side.

Since you not replacing Robb with anyone right now, Either Smart or Horford has to become a serious out side threat, or you need to get some one that can be. Then when one of the Jays are resting you need a guy who can score to re leave some of the weight off of who ever is on the floor while the other sits. Having more shooting helps keeps the jays from driving into 3 players and getting stripped or getting too deep and turning it over.

So more scoring could help with less turnovers.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

If the Magic really are taking Smith or Banchero, they will need a rotation big man with Carter to play center (assuming they don't resign Bamba) so they can keep them from getting beat up. Isaac is a 4. Okeke and Wagner are both more 4 than 3.

How about this:

Celtics: Isaac, Ross
Magic: Theis, Stauskas, Nesmith, 2024 1st

[LilRip]

This young core of JT-JB is very good. They’ve been successful 3 out of 4 years they’ve been together and they made the finals last year. So the dilemma is, do you run it back given they made the finals or do you make some changes to the rotation?

I’m generally leaning towards the latter but you don’t do it blindly. You need to build around JT-JB (in particular, JT) in a way that maximizes them. Now, how do you build around a versatile superstar wing? If we follow how the other championship or contending teams did it (Kawhi’s Raps, KD’s Big 3 Nets, Lebron’s Cavs, Dirk’s Mavs), the general shell looks like:
Offense:
1) the versatile superstar scorer (Tatum)
2) an outside threat to release the pressure (Horford?)
3) a vertical (or inside) threat to diversify the attack (Timelord)
4) a playmaker to control the team and get guys to their spots (Smart?)
5) either a shooter, a scorer, a cutter. At most, a team can survive having 1 non-threat on the floor (JB, as a microwave scorer)

Defense:
1) a strong paint presence for rebounds and altering shots (Timelord)
2) a swiss knife elite defender who can take on the team’s best player (Smart or even JB)
3) other defenders that are as switchable as possible

Timelord and Jaylen Brown are great fits and the big question marks imo are: 1) can Horford continue to play at a high level (and consistent shooting) like we saw in the playoffs and 2) can Smart improving on his playmaking skills?

A deep bench wins you games in the regular season and hopefully gets you to the playoffs as healthy as possible but rotations are shortened to an extreme in the playoffs. You need your main guys firing.

[Moranis]

8th men never move the needle.  Boston needs a better top end of the rotation to truly compete for championships going forward.

If the Celtics had a Terrance Ross(2021 version not this past season) or Luke Kennard on their roster this past season in place of Pritchard or Nesmith I think they beat the Warriors.

I don't.  Boston lost because they couldn't stop turning the ball over and GS was quite simply better.  Curry was the best player on the floor and Wiggins did a masterful job on both ends against Tatum.  Brown was widely inconsistent, but compared to Horford's inconsistency he was stable.  Smart and Williams can't hit the broad side of a barn away from the rim. 

Boston's issue is the top end talent just isn't good enough.  Upgrading the bench, isn't going to make Boston a champion, upgrading the starters might.

In the finals, our starting 5 was +24.  I agree that this unit showed plenty of warts along the way but had our bench held serve so to speak, it could have had some impact.

I feel the starters or top 5 players have the talent to win a title.  I think we proved that this playoff run.  Offensive execution needs to improve.  I don't think the core team every fully mastered Udoka's offensive system.  Or maybe his system isn't all that good or he isn't coaching it all that well, but that seemed to me to be the issue with the starters or the top end talent.

Rob was +30
Horford was -27
Tatum was -21
Brown was +1
Smart was -12

[Roy H.]

I’d rather find a starting power forward, and move Horford to the bench.  That would upgrade both units.

[LilRip]

8th men never move the needle.  Boston needs a better top end of the rotation to truly compete for championships going forward.

If the Celtics had a Terrance Ross(2021 version not this past season) or Luke Kennard on their roster this past season in place of Pritchard or Nesmith I think they beat the Warriors.

I don't.  Boston lost because they couldn't stop turning the ball over and GS was quite simply better.  Curry was the best player on the floor and Wiggins did a masterful job on both ends against Tatum.  Brown was widely inconsistent, but compared to Horford's inconsistency he was stable.  Smart and Williams can't hit the broad side of a barn away from the rim. 

Boston's issue is the top end talent just isn't good enough.  Upgrading the bench, isn't going to make Boston a champion, upgrading the starters might.

having a better bench would have made a significant difference in the finals -- it's the concept of what 'better' means that's the issue.

A real PG that can hit an outside shot, defend respectably and run an offense would have been huge off the bench -- takes the load of the J's shoulders to run the offense because they clearly are not ready/capable of that responsibility (at least not yet).  White isn't that guy.  PP wasn't reliable enough with his shot and was having real issues on D.

A 3&D wing who has a reliable shot would have been a big help.  We don't have that at all.  Cuts the J's minutes so we can give them more rest to stay fresher during games.   Grant is more of a 4 than a wing.  Nesmith is full of energy but often out of place on D and still cannot hit a 3 to save his life.

An athletic 4/5 that can defend and rebound would have been a big help when Timelord was out and to give Al more rest.  GWill has the strength/mass to defend in the post but not the height to block shots.  Theis has the height but not the athleticism against fast big men or strength for large big men. 

There's 3 pieces the bench could use that would have made a big difference.  Maybe Nesmith puts it together this offseason and makes a real leap for next season.  Maybe PP becomes more consistent with his shot such that he's not a negative on the floor.   Maybe Grant becomes more consistent with his shot as well.  Theis - if we can get a better big off the bench such that Theis slides down the depth chart one spot to take Kornet's slot, that would provide good depth because he can be effective against some of the teams in the league

My only problem with this is that it sounds like you’re describing non-allstar starters, not bench players. I mean, a bench player who is a real PG that can hit an outside shot, AND defend AND run an offense? Give me that guy over Smart.

A 3&D wing with a reliable outside shot is usually a starter for teams with wings whose names don’t start with Jay. Athletic 4/5’s with length and rebounding and presumably won’t get burned on the perimeter sounds like a starter as well.

Grant Williams is a pretty good player off the bench imo. Sure he’ll never win 6MOY but despite his limitations, he does a thing or two great and does a bunch of other things decently. The only way to “cheat” the system is if someone accepts a buyout and agrees to go to the C’s for the minimum, or someone is coming off a terrible injury (like how GSW landed Otto Porter) and needs to recoup his value via the C’s.

 

 

[Vermont Green]

8th men never move the needle.  Boston needs a better top end of the rotation to truly compete for championships going forward.

If the Celtics had a Terrance Ross(2021 version not this past season) or Luke Kennard on their roster this past season in place of Pritchard or Nesmith I think they beat the Warriors.

I don't.  Boston lost because they couldn't stop turning the ball over and GS was quite simply better.  Curry was the best player on the floor and Wiggins did a masterful job on both ends against Tatum.  Brown was widely inconsistent, but compared to Horford's inconsistency he was stable.  Smart and Williams can't hit the broad side of a barn away from the rim. 

Boston's issue is the top end talent just isn't good enough.  Upgrading the bench, isn't going to make Boston a champion, upgrading the starters might.

In the finals, our starting 5 was +24.  I agree that this unit showed plenty of warts along the way but had our bench held serve so to speak, it could have had some impact.

I feel the starters or top 5 players have the talent to win a title.  I think we proved that this playoff run.  Offensive execution needs to improve.  I don't think the core team every fully mastered Udoka's offensive system.  Or maybe his system isn't all that good or he isn't coaching it all that well, but that seemed to me to be the issue with the starters or the top end talent.

Rob was +30
Horford was -27
Tatum was -21
Brown was +1
Smart was -12

OK, and Grant Williams was -55 and White was -62 in the finals.  When the starters played as a unit, they fared well.  When the bench came in, we lost ground in nearly all cases, no matter what combination of starters were still on the court.

Rob Williams was the only starter whose +/- held up when playing with non starters.  But he was +24 with the starters and apparently +6 when playing with at at least one bench player.  He had 82 min with starters and about 76 min with at least one non-starter.  Horford for example played about 112 minutes with bench players.

Brown for another example was +24 with the starters so apparently -23 with at least on non-starter.

The drop off when the bench came in was stark and dramatic.  There is no denying that.  The starters displayed some weakness also but it is statistically true that there was a dramatic drop off on the score board when any of the starters came out.

[Sketch5]

I’d rather find a starting power forward, and move Horford to the bench.  That would upgrade both units.

This. Orlando is going to have a ton of bigs they need to get rid of. Issac would be good if he's healthy, and Carter could play next to Robb.

I think it would be easier to get Issac cause of his health problems. Not sure if its worth using the TPE on, but there may not be many options.

[Moranis]

8th men never move the needle.  Boston needs a better top end of the rotation to truly compete for championships going forward.

If the Celtics had a Terrance Ross(2021 version not this past season) or Luke Kennard on their roster this past season in place of Pritchard or Nesmith I think they beat the Warriors.

I don't.  Boston lost because they couldn't stop turning the ball over and GS was quite simply better.  Curry was the best player on the floor and Wiggins did a masterful job on both ends against Tatum.  Brown was widely inconsistent, but compared to Horford's inconsistency he was stable.  Smart and Williams can't hit the broad side of a barn away from the rim. 

Boston's issue is the top end talent just isn't good enough.  Upgrading the bench, isn't going to make Boston a champion, upgrading the starters might.

In the finals, our starting 5 was +24.  I agree that this unit showed plenty of warts along the way but had our bench held serve so to speak, it could have had some impact.

I feel the starters or top 5 players have the talent to win a title.  I think we proved that this playoff run.  Offensive execution needs to improve.  I don't think the core team every fully mastered Udoka's offensive system.  Or maybe his system isn't all that good or he isn't coaching it all that well, but that seemed to me to be the issue with the starters or the top end talent.

Rob was +30
Horford was -27
Tatum was -21
Brown was +1
Smart was -12

OK, and Grant Williams was -55 and White was -62 in the finals.  When the starters played as a unit, they fared well.  When the bench came in, we lost ground in nearly all cases, no matter what combination of starters were still on the court.

Rob Williams was the only starter whose +/- held up when playing with non starters.  But he was +24 with the starters and apparently +6 when playing with at at least one bench player.  He had 82 min with starters and about 76 min with at least one non-starter.  Horford for example played about 112 minutes with bench players.

Brown for another example was +24 with the starters so apparently -23 with at least on non-starter.

The drop off when the bench came in was stark and dramatic.  There is no denying that.  The starters displayed some weakness also but it is statistically true that there was a dramatic drop off on the score board when any of the starters came out.

The starters were better than the bench, shocking

Golden State's starters
Curry was +35
Klay was +7
Wiggins was +29
Green was +20
Looney was +48

Again Boston lost because Boston's starters weren't as good as Golden State's starters. 

[Vermont Green]

I’d rather find a starting power forward, and move Horford to the bench.  That would upgrade both units.

I agree with this.  It is the trickle down effect.  Finding a starting PF that is going to produce better than Horford did last season/playoffs, and meshes with the other starters as well is no easy task.  But absolutely, a good PF, even if neutral to the performance of the starting unit, would indirectly improve our bench.

In reality, Horford may not be as good next season as last so we may need to upgrade just to stay the same at that position.  And starting PF is a longer term issue that needs to be addressed soon in any case.  So if we can solve that now, great.

[wdleehi]

I think they need to upgrade the SG/SF off the bench.   Someone who can play in the regular season in a meaningful way  that  can cut down on  Tatum and Browns minutes.   

[No Nickname]

Malcolm Brogdon was the ACC POY and also.... the DEFENSIVE Player of the Year.

He's PERFECT for Ime and Brad's brand of defense first basketball.  Plus he averaged almost 20ppg last year.

This dude is there to be had!!! 

I'd trade Smart and two 1st rounders for Brogdon.  He'd put us over the top.

Remember how key he was for the Bucks against us in the playoffs?

[liam]

Malcolm Brogdon was the ACC POY and also.... the DEFENSIVE Player of the Year.

He's PERFECT for Ime and Brad's brand of defense first basketball.  Plus he averaged almost 20ppg last year.

This dude is there to be had!!! 

I'd trade Smart and two 1st rounders for Brogdon.  He'd put us over the top.

Remember how key he was for the Bucks against us in the playoffs?

Maybe I'm wrong on this but Brogdon seems to be hurt a lot.

[Vermont Green]

8th men never move the needle.  Boston needs a better top end of the rotation to truly compete for championships going forward.

If the Celtics had a Terrance Ross(2021 version not this past season) or Luke Kennard on their roster this past season in place of Pritchard or Nesmith I think they beat the Warriors.

I don't.  Boston lost because they couldn't stop turning the ball over and GS was quite simply better.  Curry was the best player on the floor and Wiggins did a masterful job on both ends against Tatum.  Brown was widely inconsistent, but compared to Horford's inconsistency he was stable.  Smart and Williams can't hit the broad side of a barn away from the rim. 

Boston's issue is the top end talent just isn't good enough.  Upgrading the bench, isn't going to make Boston a champion, upgrading the starters might.

In the finals, our starting 5 was +24.  I agree that this unit showed plenty of warts along the way but had our bench held serve so to speak, it could have had some impact.

I feel the starters or top 5 players have the talent to win a title.  I think we proved that this playoff run.  Offensive execution needs to improve.  I don't think the core team every fully mastered Udoka's offensive system.  Or maybe his system isn't all that good or he isn't coaching it all that well, but that seemed to me to be the issue with the starters or the top end talent.

Rob was +30
Horford was -27
Tatum was -21
Brown was +1
Smart was -12

OK, and Grant Williams was -55 and White was -62 in the finals.  When the starters played as a unit, they fared well.  When the bench came in, we lost ground in nearly all cases, no matter what combination of starters were still on the court.

Rob Williams was the only starter whose +/- held up when playing with non starters.  But he was +24 with the starters and apparently +6 when playing with at at least one bench player.  He had 82 min with starters and about 76 min with at least one non-starter.  Horford for example played about 112 minutes with bench players.

Brown for another example was +24 with the starters so apparently -23 with at least on non-starter.

The drop off when the bench came in was stark and dramatic.  There is no denying that.  The starters displayed some weakness also but it is statistically true that there was a dramatic drop off on the score board when any of the starters came out.

The starters were better than the bench, shocking

Golden State's starters
Curry was +35
Klay was +7
Wiggins was +29
Green was +20
Looney was +48

Again Boston lost because Boston's starters weren't as good as Golden State's starters.

The GSW starters as a group were +26 vs. the BOS starters were +24.  Our starting group played almost exactly equal to their starting group.

The difference is that GSW continued to play well (in terms of +/-) even when 1 or 2 of the starters came out where as the Celtics cratered when any of our starters came out.

Poole was -3 (as compared to White -62), Porter was +18 (as opposed to Grant at -55).

The box score does not support the position that our starters were the problem.  Or that their starters were way better.  Our starters looked really bad at times for sure with all the turn overs but statistically our starters as a group were almost exactly equal to their starters as a group.

Against Miami, their starters as a group were -20.  We had Grant Williams as a starter several games so it is hard to sort for us in that series but with Grant and the other 4 starters, we were -4.

I don't disagree that GSW starters played very well, maybe a tick better than our starters.  But in spite of how bad it looked at times with our starters, the result on the scoreboard with the starters on the floor was not the issue.

[Who]

I think it will very much be someone in the 6th-8th spot.  My preference would be to make a run at Luke Kennard, whom I think will be moved, but in any case it would be surprising if we didn’t add a wing.

Some relevant quotes from Brad:

I think we have to walk a fine line a little bit. I think teams are fragile,” Stevens said. “I think the way teams work together and operate together are fragile. And I think your identity as a team, when you find one that’s successful — which we did this year on the defensive end of the floor and when we were at our best sharing the ball offensively — those things are fragile. So just to add doesn’t mean that you’re not taking something away from the group. And to change significant pieces in the group doesn’t mean that that might not totally take your identity and shift it in a direction that’s not as successful.

With our group in particular, it’s not as much about blindly acquiring talent as it is fitting a team together,” he said. “We’ve got some very, very talented guys, and they are young. So it’s about how do we fit together, bring our strengths together to accentuate each other.

And the challenge, again, is making sure whatever you do around the margins of our roster, we have a unique identity and we have uniqueness in our size and our ability to be versatile all across the board. So we have to take that into account when we are adding to our team.

I don’t expect a big shakeup, which makes sense given a core that is largely still at or younger than peak age.

I find these perspectives accurate.  You do have to be careful.  Look at how many teams end up totally messed up.  Another telling statement in my mind is his reference to "around the margins of our roster".  He is coming right out and saying that any changes he makes will be "around the margins" and that even with these types of changes, he is going to be very careful about altering their "unique identity".

Teams need to be open to anything in the off season but this seems pretty clear that he is not looking to change the core.  I think that is the correct approach but I will caveat that by saying you never know what opportunities may present themselves.  I agree that if we can bring in a vet wing 6th man type and maybe a decent up an coming PF, great.  That should be plan A.  But we also need to keep an open mind if something out of the blue presents itself (and I suspect the team will be).

His words almost scare me ...

I agree with the general idea he is representing but CBS sounds too conservative / reluctant to making major for my liking. I'd like to hear him be a bit more open about being opportunistic if the right opportunity were to present itself even if meant moving away from this team's current core or identity.

Too risk adverse ... I guess is what worries me when I read those words.