Welcome back CeltsPr33... TP for jumping in the fray so late!
Sorry too it's taken so long to answer the question on most people's mind:
Orlando:
2) How do you match up specifically with New Jersey, New York, and Detroit?
Here’s how we see those 3 teams:
3. Pistons
2. Knicks
1. Nets
... And how we matchup against them:
Magics vs. PistonsPG: Billups/Telfair vs. Watson/Lowry – Watson is a very good defensively and an underated PG, but he’s giving up 2-3 inches on Billups and is miles behind in big-game experience. Lowry and Telfair are both good young PGs as backups.
EDGE: OrlandoSG: Stuckey/Barnes vs. Redd/Murray — Redd is the best offensive talent in either backcourt, but is slow and at best average defensively. Redd will have as many problems staying with Stuckey going to the hoop as Stuckey/Barnes will slowing Redd’s output. Barnes is big enough to give Redd problems.
EDGE: DetroitSF: Granger/Harpring vs. Turkoglu/Harrington — Remarkabley similar players offensivley (though Turkoglu turns the ball over 3.0 a game to Granger’s 2.1). Granger gets the edge on the defensive end. Turk relies on his size/length to get an advantage on most SF, but won’t have that vs. Granger, and Granger will be able to score on Turkglu more than the other way around. Where Harrington will be able to overpower most SFs, Harpring can hold his own.
EDGE: EvenPF: Duncan/Williams vs. Marion/Landry — Big advantage for Duncan. Marion's a SF... unless he's playing on PHO w/ Marion and Stoudemire. While Marion gets an edge in transition he’s just not big enough to slow Duncan in a playoff series. Landry doesn’t do much to help here.
EDGE: OrlandoC: Brad Miller/Foyle vs. Yao/Brown (or Voskuhl) — Yao has a slight advantage over MIller, but Miller and Foyle are physical, big body types that give Yao problems. I’m tempted to call it even b/c of Yao’s injury history, but i’ll give
EDGE: Detroit.
FINAL EDGE:Orlando – These are 2 evenly matched teams. Where Detroit has an edge it’s relatively small, whereas Orlando has a bigger edge at the PF + PG positions. Experience further tips the scales in Orlando’s favor as none of the Pistons has ever been deep in the playoffs other than Marion.
Magics vs. KnicksPG: Billups/Telfair vs. A. Miller/House — Billups and Miller play each other pretty closely in 17 career games and are both bulky PGs who like to post opposing PGs up. Billups has an edge as a shooter, whereas Miller creates more shots for his teamates. I like Telfair as a PG over House, and House as a scorer over Telfair.
EDGE: Even.SG: Stuckey/Barnes vs. Azubuike/Barry — I like Stuckey & Barnes athleticism here. Az isn’t really a stater, but is a decent defender, and Barry is DONE.
EDGE: OrlandoSF: Granger/Harpring vs. Lewis/Posey — I’m not a Lewis fan, i think he’s way too one-dimensional and a poor defender/rebounder for his size. Posey will give Granger some problems. Harpring will be able to body Lewis the same way Posey does otehr SFs. I’ll be nice and call this
EDGE: EvenPF: Duncan/Williams vs. KG/Humphries — a draw. KG and Duncan are the best PFs in the last 15 years. Williams and Humphries are both decent if unspectacular PFs.
EDGE: EvenC: Brad Miller/Foyle vs. Dampier/Lopez — There are a lot of options with the 4 key bigs for both teams in terms of matchups but Dampier is clearly the weak link. If he covers Miller he’s drawn away from the basket and that negates his rebounding and weakside shotblocking. if he guards Duncan he’ll get in foul trouble (in 31 gms vs. Duncan, Damp averages 4 PFs versus 3 for his career).
EDGE: OrlandoFINAL EDGE:Orlando– Again, these 2 teams are very evenly matched but Orlando has a couple advantages at SG/C while matching NYK’s strengths at their 2 best positions (PF + PG). What really tips the scales though is frontcourt depth. Orlando has 5-6 bigs (Duncan, Miller, Foyle, Harrison, Thompson, Gortat) to throw at KG & Dampier, while NY has the undersized Humphries and the unproven Lopez if KG or Dampier get in foul trouble (Posey can’t match up with either Duncan or Miller for any extended stretch). That will become a big difference in a long series.
Magics vs. NetsPG: Billups/Telfair vs. Kidd/Fisher — if this were even 2 years ago, edge to NJ, but NJ’s PGs are both 2 years older than any of our 3 PGs. Kidd just won’t be able to keep up with Billups anymore. And Fisher will have problems staying with Telfair on the break. It’s slight, but
EDGE: OrlandoSG: Stuckey/Barnes vs. Maggette/Peterson — count me a little curious about how Pierce and Maggette are going to coexist, but NJ has the edge here. This is one of those times where Barnes as SG makes total sense. He’ll be asked to body Maggette for longer stretches than in other series (as will Harpring, who is probably the better matchup vs. Maggette).
EDGE: New JerseySF: Granger/Harpring vs. Pierce/Carroll — Pierce is the Nets’ best player, but Granger is the type of long, quick SF that can give him problems. Carroll is a severe liabilty vs. either Granger or Harpring, whereas Harpring (or Barnes) can make Pierce work for his offense and stay honest on D. Not as big an edge as some might say.
EDGE: New JerseyPF: Duncan/Williams vs. David West/Gooden — I think both West and Gooden are undersized to really slow Duncan. To the extent West was able to guard Duncan in the playoffs, it was b/c he knew he had the shotblocking Chandler to help out. Okur is not that guy. If NJ got the edge at SF, Orlando gets it here (since the gap is similarly small, but among great players).
EDGE: OrlandoC: Brad Miller/Foyle vs. Okur/Przybilla — A 5th close matchup. Okur is younger, and a better outside shooter, but is not a great defender or rebounder. Miller’s won 11 of 14 matchups vs Okur and held him to 7 reb/43% shooting. Przybilla and Foyle are both nice defensive backups.
EDGE: OrlandoFINAL EDGE:Orlando — Probably should be even, but that’s like Wilbon saying “Push”. This is the closest of the matchups and really would come down to injuries or foul trouble in the ECF. NJ has the experience (Pierce, Kidd) to match ORL's.
But here’s why i think the Magics advance to the Finals. I look at this like the PHO/SA series the last 2-3 years. NJ (like Phoenix) is maybe more dynamic and is loaded with firepower, but in a long series ORL (like SA) has the edge (a) defensively and (b) in the frontcourt (PF/C) where most series are won/lost. Throw in an advantage at PG and Orlando wins a hard-fought 7-game series.
I'm curious what other GMs think...
(Before anyone thinks i’m a homer, before getting Billups and Stuckey, I would have conceded the NJ series b/c of the backcourt edge; Those moves were made in large part to matchup with NJ better).
UBUNTU, Y'ALL!