Yeah it shouldn't surprise anyone that I'm the one posting this. I'm a pessimist. This team looked like a lotto squad to me last year too. I'd guess it looked like a lotto squad to Ainge as well.
All I know is that this team was bottom 10 with a few weeks left in the season... essentially tied with Charlotte. Charlotte goes in one direction (losing MKG and Big Al to injury and finishing with 9 losses over their last 12 games)... Boston goes in another direction (late season surge while the league slept... win 9 out of their last 11 games). Suddenly we're in the playoffs with a losing record. I hope we build on that experience.
So this offseason we swapped out Bass for Amir and added some depth to the Red Claws. Cool. Maybe we'll be a bit better. But I think there's a chance some of these teams behind us will catch up. Let's look at them from the bottom up:
Knicks (17 wins): Melo is back. Melo made the playoffs the first 9 years of his career. Typically 50+ win seasons. Go ahead and knock him, but the guy has talent. They added Aaron Afflalo and Robin Lopez. Kyle O'Quinn is a serviceable starting PF with quality defense. Point guard is a concern. Who are they playing there... Jerian Grant or something? I imagine Porzingus comes off the bench. Maybe they should move Porzingus for Ty Lawson or something. Not unthinkable that team will win 40+.
Philly (18 wins): Everything that can be said about them has been said about them. Let's start by just saying they had a top 12 defense last year. Noel showed major improvement the second half. With him on the court, they had the best defense in the league. So they add Okafor who should immediately be an offensive threat for the team. I still think Embiid plays. Stauskas is a nice shooter. They'll get Wroten back. It's starting to look like a basketball team. At any point, they can probably trade one of their three bigs for a fool's ransom. Boston, for instance, would probably give up half their lineup for Okafor. I think as long as HInkie continues to be patient, this will be a lottery team, but it wouldn't be hard for this team to change gears if they want to. Best assets in the league.
Orlando (25 wins): I really like Orlando. They might be one of the most exciting young teams in the league. Anyone see Aaron Gordon tonight in summer league? 22 points, 18 boards and 2 blocks. If that kid shows improvement this year, look out. Check that lineup: PG - Elfrid Payton, SG - Oladipo, SF - Tobias Harris, PF - Aaron Gordon, C - Vucevic... .with Mario Hezonja off the bench? Who knows what that team will do. Could they make a leap? It's possible.
Detroit (32 wins): They lost Monroe. My guess is they are going to be worse unless Drummond turns into a superstar. They don't look like a threat to improve. EDIT: I'll plug in TheFlex's comments: "Really disagree about Detroit. They were better with Anthony Tolliver's stretch 4 game replacing Monroe when Monroe was injured. They got two superior versions of Tolliver in Ilyasova and Marcus Morris and added Stanley Johnson. Reggie Jackson gets more time to learn what SVG wants and Jennings comes back from injury. If the Celts miss the playoffs, I think it'll be because the Pistons stole our spot."
Hornets (33 wins): Who knows. That team is completely dysfunctional. They got hit with injuries last year. If MKG, Al JEfferson and Kemba are healthy, they might get back into the playoffs (they made the playoffs in 2013-14). The addition of Batum might help. Maybe they'll see growth out of Zeller or maybe their infatuation with Kaminsky will pay off. That team was even with us with about 11 games left in the season. Not unthinkable that they'll be better than us this year.
Miami (37 wins): Getting Bosh back. Adding Winslow. PG - Dragic, SG Wade, SF Deng/Winslow, PF Bosh, C Whiteside... I expect that to be a playoff team next year.
Pacers (38 wins): Welcome back Paul George. Hello Monta Ellis. Goodbye Hibbert. Goodbye West? I don't know what to make of the Pacers. I say they have just as good a shot as we do to make the playoffs next year, though. George and Ellis have game.
Brooklyn (38 wins): That team showed real life down the stretch with Brook Lopez back in the starting lineup and the addition of Thad Young. Everyone seems to think they are toast. I don't get it. They have been a playoff team two years in a row. I expect them to be back in the playoffs next year.
Boston (40 wins): Swapped out Bass for Amir. Added some depth to the Red Claws. That's about it.
I wouldn't say it's unthinkable that we'll make the playoffs next year. I just think we overachieved to begin with. We're going to need some real progress out of Smart, Sully, Young, etc. We need Amir Johnson to be a revelation. Otherwise, I think we could very easily win 35 games and barely miss out.
Note: Boston is a roster built for trades. I have to imagine we'll make a trade at some point. It looks like a lotto squad to me RIGHT NOW. I don't know what this team will look like in February.
Your problem is not pessimism.
When you can go into detail about other teams but when it comes to the team of which you are supposedly a fan, you leave out that we're bringing back Crowder and IT, two guys who were key to Boston's second half surge...that's not pessimism.
When you are more impressed with what Aaron Gordon does in one Summer League game than seemingly anything any Celtic player has ever done...that's not pessimism.
When you look at the Knicks, who added a journeyman center, a journeyman 2 guard, a draft bust, a non-lottery pick and a kid whom even his fans say isn't physically ready for the NBA, and think they might win 23+ more games next season...that's not pessimism.
And when you show more enthusiasm for Nik Stauskus, Bismack Biyombo and Anthony Bennett than anyone on the current Celtics' roster...that's not pessimism.
Your problem isn't that you are pessimistic about Boston. The problem is that you are pessimistic about Boston and its players while being optimistic about teams and players who are demonstrably worse.
Be pessimistic. Just stop trying so hard to be smarter than everybody else.
Mike