Poll: Mavericks vs. Celtics Series Predictions

[scaryjerry]

I’m genuinely terrified of Luka in this series. Should be the Celtics time but I can’t guarantee or predict that with that cold blooded killer on the other side

Don't see why Luka would terrify anyone.  What has he done to be considered a cold blooded killer?  Just thinking about Luka and Kyrie having to play defense against this Celts team ought to put a big grin on any Celtics fan.

I can’t take you serious with a comment like this.
Don’t see why Luka would terrify anyone? Huh?
There defense has been pretty good in the second half of the season too btw. We’ll see.

You didn't say anything to justify your terror but that's okay because terror is often irrational.  Luka isn't Michael, LeBron or even Kobe.  He certainly isn't Bird. Now maybe he does step up to carry Mavs to win this series but to be honest I'd be more concerned about Kyrie.   

I have Luka up in the class of Bird, Magic, Oscar and LeBron.

Luka is incredible. One of the most skilled players of All-Time. A 30-10-10 threat on a nightly basis. Clutch. Performs well in the playoffs.

The only thing that concerns me is that Minnesota was supposedly one of the top defensive teams in the league and Dallas handled them very effectively. Talent wins in this league and Luka is probably the best player in this series. Couple that with Cleveland Championship Winning Kyrie and that's a problem.

Bird back in his day would get his against any defense. They have 2 guys who can do that.  I don't see how we win this without a big contribution from Porzingis - which I think we'll get.

The Timberwolves roster construction was not a good defensive matchup against Dallas. Their top defenders were their interior guys and Gobert and Towns got totally abused defensively by Dallas' guards/wings. The Celtics on the other hand are built for this. They have 6 guys who are all versatile top level 2 way players and their defensive strength is at the guard and wing positions. We know the Celtics can defend at a top level. On the other side, what defenders does Dallas have? They don't stand a chance of guarding Boston. They can only hope the Celtics go cold for enough games to steal a few of them.

IConley is an excellent defender and Irving torched him. That is the concern. Irving is probably too fast for White.  Brown and Jrue as good as anyone on Luka, but he is really good so will probably still do well.

Mike Conley is 36 years old and the rest of the Wolves backcourt and wings were mediocre to poor defenders. The Celtics backcourt of Holliday is the best defensive backcourt in the league and probably the best in the past 5+years. On the wings Brown and Tatum are also excellent defenders, and Porzingis and Horford are no slouches either. The Mavs haven't faced anything near this level of defense yet in the playoffs. Importantly, on the flip side, Dallas has no good defenders to match any of our top 6 guys. They are going to get cooked.

We have a good defensive backcourt. They also have let Donovan Mitchell and Andrew Nembhard absolutely cook in the last 2 series, why are we acting like it’s a given they’ll shutdown Luka and Kyrie?
Also for the millionth time the mavericks defense has been really good in the second half of the season/playoffs.
Too much time in between series to just make things up…time will tell

[cman88]

Celtics have a better chance of slowing down Luka/kyrie than mavs will slowing down Tatum/brown/jrue/white/KP/Horford

It just is what it is. Celtics have 5 guys who all could go for 20 on any given night.

Luka “offensively” may be the best player in the series but there are two sides to the game. And it’s not like Tatum can’t put up 36pts and 10rpg

Kyrie is averaging 20ppg these playoffs why we overrating him? Brown is having a better run

[ozgod]

Contrary to popular opinion (again) Joe doesn't think that beating Dallas has to come down to stopping Luka and Cryrie. He just wants them to play a "complete, connected game of basketball" for as much of the game/s as possible.

The Celtics coach called out the narrative that the series will come down to whether Boston stops or limits Doncic and Irving offensively.

Instead, Mazzulla thinks how his team responds to Dallas’ scoring outbursts is the most important factor, acknowledging that Doncic and Irving are likely to score throughout the series.

“The whole thing is that’s what people like to focus on,” Mazzulla told reporters Saturday. “They don’t look at the game as a connected game. If those guys play well, then they beat you. They don’t look at your offense, your defense, your turnovers, your second-chance points or your execution at the offensive end.

“The whole thing that this series is about ‘stopping those two guys,’ there is no stopping them,” Mazzulla added. “There’s defending them at a high level and there’s playing a complete game because every part of a game is connected.”

Mazzulla pointed to the close games that the Mavericks played against the Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals as examples of how games can be connected. As he remarked that “the first 3 1/2 quarters are just as important as the last two minutes of the game,” Mazzulla also mentioned that the things the Timberwolves gave up are “things you can control over a long period of time.”

“We’re not here to stop these guys,” Mazzulla said. “We’re here to play a complete game of basketball and have an understanding of how everything has an effect on everything else. They’re going to score. It’s what they do best. If we don’t take care of the things that are within our control, then that doesn’t put us in the best possible position to win.”

He does think the Cs are better suited at slowing down Luka and Cryrie than the Wolves were, though.

As Doncic and Irving delivered devastating buckets to the Timberwolves, Mazzulla believes that the Celtics might be equipped to handle the duo’s scoring after what happened in their sweep over the Pacers.

“It can have an emotional impact on you if you let it,” Mazzulla said when asked if what the duo does offensively can have an impact on the Celtics. “I think the Indiana series was a tremendous test for us because it tested our emotional ability to withstand things we were willing to give up. They shot 60 percent from non-layup 2s, which is the shot you’re willing to give up over a long period of time. We managed the fourth quarter better than we managed the end of halves or end of quarters. We were able to keep them out of transition in [Games 3 and 4].

“It’s just a test of the things you can’t control. That’s the biggest thing. If you get into trying to worry about things you can’t control, then it doesn’t put you in the best position to win.”

Quotes from https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2024/06/01/joe-mazzulla-celtics-mavericks-luka-doncic-kyrie-irving-stats-nba-finals/?p1=hp_featurestack

[Vermont Green]

On the "how good is Luka" thing, I wanted to look at his stats more closely and also look at the combined Tatum + Brown vs. Luka + Kyrie.

Luka, based on:    41.5 min / 22.3 FGA / 31.3 usage, is putting up 28.8 pts /  9.6 rebs / 8.8 assts / 43.8 FG% / 34.3 3P%
Tatum based on:   40.5 min / 19.6 FGA / 27.9 usage, is putting up 26.0 pts / 10.4 rebs / 5.9 assts / 44.2 FG% / 29.0 3P%

I think most would argue that Tatum is the better defender.  And this is with Tatum only shooting 29% from 3, well below his career mark.  Also, Tatum is getting 7.9 FTA, Luka 7.3 FTA.  Luka is really good.  That rightfully is getting a lot of attention.  People are forgetting that Tatum is really good too.

Luka + Kyrie is at:        51.6 pts / 13.5 rebs / 14.0 asst
Tatum + Brown is at:    51.0 pts / 16.5 rebs /  8.5 asst

Pretty even on the core box score stats.  I think the assists is an indication that DAL is either a shot by Luka or Kyrie or 1 pass for a lob dunk or kick out 3.  BOS moves the ball more with multiple passes before a shot.  Team assists is 23.6 BOS and 22.4 DAL.  More people than just Tatum and Brown are getting assists.  This is exactly as it seems, pretty even top 2, maybe an offensive edge to DAL but a defensive edge to BOS.

[Vermont Green]

Another thing that I have been hearing is that DAL's defense may be better than people think because the DAL defense played well vs. MIN.  MIN averaged 102.7 pts/gm vs. DEN and 105.6 pts/gm vs. DAL.  DEN was actually a pretty good regular season defensive team (6th best based on ppg, 8th best per 100 poss).  But MIN scored more vs. DAL.  I am not sure the MIN series says much about the DAL defense.

DAL defense improved from 11th / 117.2 opp ppg pre-trade (up to Feb 14) to 5th / 111.7 opp ppg after.  So they are an improved defense.  Adding Gafford and Washington, while subtracting Grant, gave them additional size, athleticism and overall better defense.  Lively and Gafford give them the ability to make up for Kyrie and Luka.  These two are not terrible defenders when they put in the effort.  They just can't do both, dominate the offense and play tough D, at least not for a whole game.  They can dial it up for key possessions though.