Thought experiment: Pierce and Allen for LeBron

[drza44]

Neither KG nor LeBron have ever played with an offensive force like the other that would open up the floor and prevent them from getting doubled ever (last season Garnett was the one that was doubled more often than Pierce or Allen

I have to disagree .
Paul is just as good as Bron or at least as close as bron as youre going to get in this world
And from games i watch  , like 90 last year, Pierce was doubled more.

Re: LeBron's vs. Pierce's offense.  I think that Pierce is a better shooter from the perimeter and percentage-wise from the line, but other than that I don't see it.  Even avoiding advanced stats and looking just at the basics like ppg and FG%, LeBron has never averaged fewer than 27.2 ppg nor less than 47.2% FG% since his rookie season.  Those are both better than Pierce has ever achieved in any season in his career.  Pierce's best offensive attributes are his ability to get to the rim and his ability to draw the foul, and LeBron is as good or better in both of those areas.  And LeBron's ball-handling, floor generalship, and athleticism are both an order of magnitude beyond Pierce's which IMO makes him much more difficult to game-plan against.

Re: double-teams.  Really?  My viewing recollections over a similar number of games is the exact opposite of that.  I can't recall Pierce ever being doubled on the perimeter (where he did the majority of his ball-handling) outside of trapping the P & R, and when he went inside if two people met him at the rim that (to me) isn't the same as a double, that's help defense.  KG, on the other hand, I recall getting doubled regularly when he played with his back to the basket, whether that was in the post or at the perimeter elbow.  He would even get doubled when he didn't have the ball (see Kobe or Odom doubling onto him in the Finals to prevent the entry pass), which I don't recall ever seeing with Pierce.  

That said, I know that memory is often the least reliable resource so I very well could be wrong.  Does anyone know if there is a resource that keeps track of miscellaneous stats like double-teams drawn, something like an 82games.com type site?  I'd be interested to see those results.

[drza44]

See, I'm just not sure that I buy that.  Pierce plays better defense, and I wonder if Lebron could have shut down Kobe to the extent that Paul did.  How would he have handled deferring to other players at times?  I'm not sure that he's matured enough as a player to lead like Paul did last year.  Throw is the fact that we'd be missing Ray Allen, and I don't think it's conclusive *at all* that we'd be better last year, or over the next two years.

Re: vs. Kobe.  Though it isn't conclusive evidence, LeBron's teams are 6 - 3 vs. Kobe's teams in their career.  In those games, which comprise Kobe's offensive prime, Kobe is averaging only 25.2 ppg on 42.3% FG shooting...numbers well below Kobe's averages over that stretch, and very comparable to what he produced against the Cs in this year's Finals.  I can't say for sure how much of that was due to LeBron, but the Cavs haven't really had any other perimeter defensive stoppers over that stretch that would be credited with shutting Kobe down.

Re: deference and leadership.  Assuming such a trade would have been made, LeBron wouldn't have needed to defer to the extent that Pierce did.  LeBron and KG would have handled the lion-share of the offensive load, with Rondo and Perk playing similar roles to last season and Posey and House as shooters that don't really need the ball in their hands.  So if that is a weakness in LeBron, that wouldn't really have come into play.  And as for leadership, it seems to me that LeBron has been excellent at handling big-game pressure and having his team prepared/expecting to win even against favored opponents on the big stage.  I really don't think that would have been an issue.

Analyzing this over the defined time frame of last year (when we already know the results) and the next two years, and assuming all other things to be equal, I wouldn't make the trade.  Three stars is better than two, and one guaranteed championship is better than a hypothetical one.

The 100% known of a title last season does skew the debate, so for the sake of more reasonable analysis I try to look at it as if this trade were actually done last season.  In other words, try to look at it as 3-year blank slates and not a given title + 2-more years, because otherwise it's not really a level playing field.

Re: 3 stars better than 2.  I don't necessarily agree with that, because I don't think all stars are created equal.  I would rather have Tim Duncan than Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson.  I would rather have Kobe Bryant than Gilbert Arenas and Antawn Jamison.  Just like McChesney's Superstar theory (http://www.nbadraft.net/mcchesney005.html), I believe there is a difference.  And to me, LeBron is a Superstar while both Pierce and Allen are stars.

If you're saying that Lebron is a better defender than Pierce, and would have played better defense in the playoffs, I think you're way off base.  I find it hard to imagine our defense improving last year under any circumstances (both Paul's and Ray's defensive numbers were tremendous), and I certainly don't see it improving with Lebron James.  Lebron has improved his defense, but he's got a long ways to go before being considered good.

I think that, for the defense that the Cs run, LeBron would be at least as good if not better than Pierce.  The Cs defense uses KG to disrupt the entire middle of the court, Perkins to help him at the rim, and Rondo to disrupt on the perimeter.  Pierce and Allen's roles are to play up on their man and force him to either shoot a contested jumper, or funnel him to the middle where KG and Perk are ready to help.  I think LeBron could do that, and that it plays to areas where he has advantages over Pierce (foot speed, length).  I think LeBron's defensive weaknesses are similar to Pierce's before this year, that he puts more of his energy into the offensive end due to having to carry everything.  But on this Cs team, I think that wouldn't have been an issue.

[Edgar]

Neither KG nor LeBron have ever played with an offensive force like the other that would open up the floor and prevent them from getting doubled ever (last season Garnett was the one that was doubled more often than Pierce or Allen

I have to disagree .
Paul is just as good as Bron or at least as close as bron as youre going to get in this world
And from games i watch  , like 90 last year, Pierce was doubled more.

Re: LeBron's vs. Pierce's offense.  I think that Pierce is a better shooter from the perimeter and percentage-wise from the line, but other than that I don't see it.  Even avoiding advanced stats and looking just at the basics like ppg and FG%, LeBron has never averaged fewer than 27.2 ppg nor less than 47.2% FG% since his rookie season.  Those are both better than Pierce has ever achieved in any season in his career.  Pierce's best offensive attributes are his ability to get to the rim and his ability to draw the foul, and LeBron is as good or better in both of those areas.  And LeBron's ball-handling, floor generalship, and athleticism are both an order of magnitude beyond Pierce's which IMO makes him much more difficult to game-plan against.

Re: double-teams.  Really?  My viewing recollections over a similar number of games is the exact opposite of that.  I can't recall Pierce ever being doubled on the perimeter (where he did the majority of his ball-handling) outside of trapping the P & R, and when he went inside if two people met him at the rim that (to me) isn't the same as a double, that's help defense.  KG, on the other hand, I recall getting doubled regularly when he played with his back to the basket, whether that was in the post or at the perimeter elbow.  He would even get doubled when he didn't have the ball (see Kobe or Odom doubling onto him in the Finals to prevent the entry pass), which I don't recall ever seeing with Pierce.  

That said, I know that memory is often the least reliable resource so I very well could be wrong.  Does anyone know if there is a resource that keeps track of miscellaneous stats like double-teams drawn, something like an 82games.com type site?  I'd be interested to see those results.

(I hate stat sites you will realize that if u know me posting here
stats say what u want to hear
But ure welcome everysingel game in chat room and there we can talk about it.
sadly i cant go deeper in this tight now
I respect your position I am just posting mine
Saludos

Edgar

PS its easy to double on post
but KG its not necesarily a post player
best times of KG kast year was him hitting thos 18 footers

[jdub1660]

Ha..I remember on Nba live ...I think it was 2004(maybe 2005, can't remember) but I had the Twolves and made a legal trade in dynasty mode to get Lebron alongside KG. Even though it was just a game, and I had a few good pieces around the two, my team was sick. A force in the paint, and a force to get to the paint and make shots. Assuming the teams as the were, my vote would be for Celts short term and long term, as the C's would win that year, plus other players would come in afterwards to join the party since there would be 20 mil or so left in cap space b/c of the trade.

On another note, after reading that Iverson is willing to take a pay cut next season, imagine him behind Rondo for our bench offense. Cassell would be coaching, so we could run with House and AI on the bench for crazy offense, plus add in a couple bigs that are free that year. The Celts have a large opportunity to make a dynasty run with this squad. If we win again this year, more than just AI will show up to join the Green team.

[Edgar]

Ha..I remember on Nba live ...I think it was 2004(maybe 2005, can't remember) but I had the Twolves and made a legal trade in dynasty mode to get Lebron alongside KG. Even though it was just a game, and I had a few good pieces around the two, my team was sick. A force in the paint, and a force to get to the paint and make shots. Assuming the teams as the were, my vote would be for Celts short term and long term, as the C's would win that year, plus other players would come in afterwards to join the party since there would be 20 mil or so left in cap space b/c of the trade.

On another note, after reading that Iverson is willing to take a pay cut next season, imagine him behind Rondo for our bench offense. Cassell would be coaching, so we could run with House and AI on the bench for crazy offense, plus add in a couple bigs that are free that year. The Celts have a large opportunity to make a dynasty run with this squad. If we win again this year, more than just AI will show up to join the Green team.

I know most people sidagree with me here
but I LOVED AI in cs uniform in that photoshop image they make for slam
when rumors start...

[johnnyrondo]

The C's might have still won it but, they would be sorely lacking outside shooting.  And any injury to KG or Lebron would have been the deathblow.  They wouldn't have even made it out of the East.

Without the trade any injury to KG or Pierce would have been the "deathblow" and the C's wouldn't have made it out of the East either (or even the first round versus the Hawks).

If trade was made, you wonder what other moves would have followed. Probably a shooter or two would be added. Also House would have gotten a lot more run over Cassell. In fact sometimes you would have seen House at the point and Lebron and Posey at the wings. Or a lineup of House at pg, a shooting guard they would add, Lebron at the 3, Posey at the 4, and KG at the 5. Try doubling Lebron then.

People are underrating Lebron a little. You pair him with KG and that's a Finals trip automatically. Truth be told the Lebron almost singlehandedly beat the C's this year, even though the C's had the better pg, better sg, and a much better pf (KG over wallace). One could argue that Z is better than Perk and PJ, but that's not a difference maker.

On a somewhat unrelated note, thinking about how unstoppable a Lebron/KG duo would be, I thought Minny dropped the ball two yrs ago, by not acquiring Iverson. I think and Iverson/KG duo could have won a title.

[wdleehi]

Scary though on what Lebron could do if he suddenly had two guys that can set him up with easy shots in his happy spots vs. having no one that does that for him in Cleveland.

[Greenwood]

LeBron did look awful good in green during his hs days