2012 CB Draft Western Conference Playoffs: (2) Blazers vs. (7) Hornets

[Roy H.]

[jgod213]

New Orleans Hornets Gainesville Celtic

Tony Parker
Ray Allen
Shane Battier
David Lee
Tyson Chandler

JJ Barea, Eric Bledsoe, Leandro Barbosa, James Johnson, Trevor Booker, Dante Cunningham, JJ Hickson, Gustavo Ayon

HC: Jeff Van Gundy



Portland Trailblazers jgod213

Ricky Rubio
Joe Johnson
Wilson Chandler
Paul Millsap
Dwight Howard

Beno Udrih, Marco Belinelli, Brandon Knight, Matt Barnes, Matt Bonner, Charlie Villanueva, Josh McRoberts, Chuck Hayes

HC: Eric Spoelstra

[Kane3387]

Seeing as how Portland finished so strong. I have to think Howard is at full strength.

So how well does Chandler neutralize him?

How well can Rubio play against Tony?

I think these are two areas NO has to respond strong too. Milsap and Lee won't be too different, but Joe gets the edge over Ray. The SF matchup is pretty neutral.

The bench is pretty even also.

[jgod213]

Rotation:


PG: Rubio (38) / Udrih {8) / Belinelli (2)
 
SG: Johnson (38) / Belinelli (10)
 
SF: Chandler (35) / Barnes (9) / Johnson (4)
 
PF: Millsap (40) / Bonner (6) / Chandler (3)
 
C : Howard (43) / Hayes (5)



Matchup Breakdown:


PG:

2011 H2H (1 game where both started)

Rubio: 18pts, 10ast, 4 rebs, 59% fg - W!

Parker: 20pts, 3ast, 3rebs, 49% fg  - L!

Despite that strong showing from Rubio, definitely an edge: N.O. here - but the gap will be ever-narrowing.  Parker will be asked to do a lot more than Rubio with respect to each team.  Rubio's defensive acumen will allow him to battle Parker well.

 
SG:
 
Since 2008, while both have had drops in career playoff numbers against each other, Johnson is the only one with an excuse. Johnson was game planned against and was surrounded by inferior offensive players in ATL (compared to POR). He was also going up against one of the best defensive teams of the past couple decades. Flip the tables and this is a huge matchup advantage for Portland.

Shane Battier is the only man on the Hornets' roster that can hope to cover JJ - If this switch is made, does Ray Allen cover Wilson Chandler?


SF:

5 H2H games since ‘09

Chandler: 14/7/2 44%fg, 24% 3pt
 
Battier: 7/6/2 44%fg, 33% 3pt

Another difficult matchup for POR. Battier will limit good looks for Chandler and force difficult shots. BUT. Shane Battier will be a non-factor offensively.

Chandler is essentially the 4th scoring option on this team. N.O.’s most versatile player, their x-factor, is left guarding an offensive peripheral.  A matchup wash.

N.O. may elect to play Battier on Joe Johnson, but where does that leave Allen? Ray Allen cannot cover Wilson Chandler and this will lead to a huge disparity on the boards. Chandler is a good post-scorer and will demand a double team if matched against Allen in the post.

　
PF:

Lee indeed had better scoring/rebounding numbers last year...but much of this was due to higher usage.

Every single advanced metric except for assist% points in favor of Paul Millsap.

While Lee is extremely talented and evidently a better passer than Millsap, advanced stats indicate Millsap is the better all around player and teammate. He contributes more to winning than David Lee.  This matchup is at worst a wash and at best a slight advantage Portland.

Both players will get a huge boost defensively thanks to their center teammates, but Millsap is the only one playing next to Dwight Howard, the best defensive player in basketball.
 
 
C:

My counterpart will likely show you H2H stats, which show that Chandler limits Dwight well, but let us not forget that the past 2 years Chandler was with Dallas and NY - two teams with better surrounding talent than Dwight Howard has ever had in ORL (YES, including that finals team!).

Let’s also note that Ty Chandler has just not played good basketball since Mid April. He had a poor playoff showing against MIA (6pts 4 fouls on 44% shooting). He was virtually nonexistent on the team USA roster despite being 1 of 3 actual big men on the team, the other 2 with a combined 2 years of nba experience.

Obviously a gifted defender but can’t stay out of foul trouble lately and virtually a non-factor offensively. Howard will be completely healthy and committed by this time. One of the top 5 players in the NBA.

HUGE advantage POR.

　
Summary:

In terms of starters, N.O. has an advantage at PG, and that is it. The gap will be narrowing as Rubio gets a full season under his belt and progresses from half a season to a full season + (leading the 4th best team in the nba). Positions 2, 3, 4, and 5 possess numerous matchup issues for N.O. Their x-factor Battier will be neutralized by Portland’s offensive diversity.

For all the playoff accolades that the N.O. players possess on their resume’s (Parker, Allen, Battier, Chandler), this N.O. team is collectively worse than Parker’s Spurs, Allen’s Celtics, Battier’s Heat, and Chandler’s Mavs. Conversely, not one member of my starting unit has ever played on a team as talented and multi-dimensional as this Blazers team.


Bottom line:

What the playoffs come down to are - are my 5 best players better than your 5?

The answer is a resounding YES for Portland.

While N.O. will be able to limit certain aspects of Portland’s game on an individual level (Howard’s rebounding, Chandler’s shooting), collectively this Hornets starting unit is slower, less athletic, smaller, poorer offensively, defensively and at rebounding when compared to Portland.

We concede the jump shooting advantage to the Hornets, but if you can win at all other aspects of the game you are going to win that playoff series, home court or not. And that’s just what the Blazers are going to do, in 5 games to boot!

[KCattheStripe]

Intriguing.

[Kane3387]

Who is Shane Battier defending in this series and who is Ray Allen defending?

[ronaldo943]

Nice series both are really good teams.

[Gainesville Celtic]

Sorry I'm having a really busy work day so I'll repost my presser here now and when i grab my lunch come back and tell you how the Hornetzz might win.

Sadly due to work-time constraints, the New Orleanses Bugzzz presser won't have the same pizzaz as Gainesville Celtics' previous teams... Please don't hold this against us...


1. Roster

PG - Tony Parker* / JJ Barea* / Eric Bledsoe
SG - Ray Allen* / Leandro Barbosa
SF - Shane Battier* / James Johnson
PF - David Lee / Trevor Booker / Dante Cunningham
C - Tyson Chandler* / JJ Hickson / Gustavo Ayon

* = NBA champion

Coach - Jeff Van Gundy
Director of In Game Entertainment - Mike Patton
House Band - Dikembe




1b. Rotation

During the regular season we'll go 9 deep:

Parker (33 min/gm)
R. Allen (28*)
Battier (26*)
D. Lee (33)
Chandler (33)

J. Johnson (24)
Barea (25)
Hickson (26)
------------
Booker (10)
Bledsoe/Barbosa/Ayon (10)

* = reduced regular season mins to save their legs for the playoffs

Playoff rotations will be shortened with Allen and Battier playing more mins; the rest of the rotation will involve our starters + Barea, Johnson & Hickson with spot minutes depending on matchups.


2. Overall philosophy

We always draft to win now, ALWAYS. Since we were drafting in the 20s (FOR THE 3rd YEAR IN A ROW -- COME ON!!!), we had no choice but to build the most balanced, efficient team we could. We put a premium on players that we think fit together, play as a team with a premium on defensive players.

In a division with Lebron and the same conf. as Dwight Howard the added challenge was to build a team that could attempt to defend each come playoff time.


3. Pictures & Stats


Tony Parker, PG


18.3 ppg, 7.7 apg, 2.9 rpg, 1.0 spg, 48% FG, in 32.1 mpg 22.0 PER

This was the year that the Spurs undeniably became Parker's team. Parker finished 5th in the MVP balloting after leading the Spurs to back-to-back best records in the NBA.

An underated PG with a 3.0 asst/to ratio he's the perfect guy to lead our underated squad.


Ray Allen, SG


14.2 ppg, 2.4 apg, 3.1 rpg, 2.3 3PG, 45% 3FG in 34 mpg 14.8 PER

Allen compliments Parker's drive and dish and pick-and-roll game perfectly. Allen is older, but the Ray Allen we saw at the end of the year was hampered by injury that will be a thing of the past next season. A willing defender, Allen makes for a stellar, ultra-efficient backcourt with Parker.


Shane Battier, SF


4.8 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.3 apg, 1.0 spg, 0.5 bpg, 1.0 3pG, 34% 3FG in 23.1 mpg

The main reason Lebron got Riley to go out and get Battier was simply because he's given Lebron the biggest problems defensively over the last couple of years. It's the same reason we drafted Battier -- to defend Lebron and hit the corner 3 on passes from Parker and Allen. He may not be the elite defender he once was but he's still among the league's best and our best option to limit Lebron.



David Lee, PF


20.1 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 0.9 spg, 0.4 bpg, 50% FG, 19.7 PER in 37.2 mpg.

David Lee will be our low post anchor and we think another good fit alongside Tyson Chandler. A plus rebounder Lee will be asked to rebound and score.



Tyson Chandler, C


11.3 ppg, 9.9 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.4 bpg in 33.2 mpg.

The league's reigning Defensive Player of the Year (who was moronically left off the all-defensive team) and the defensive anchor of the US olympic team and the 2011 NBA Champions, Chandler will anchor the Bugzz defense too. A skilled pick-and-roll guy, he'll fit beautifully with Tony Parker's game.


James Johnson, SF
An underated defender who was one only 7 players (min 13 gms) to average a block and a steal this season. He'll form a formidable 1-2 defensive punch with Battier at the 3.


JJ Barea, PG
Our sparkplug off the bench, Barea is an efficient (sense a theme here?) PG who avg 5.7 assists off the bench last year and shot 37% from 3 while adding 11 points and nearly 3 rebounds. Barea is the kind of offensive change-of-pace guy that can turn a game round.

JJ Hickson, PF/C
Hickson is a load down low who can play both the 4 and the 5. If you overlook his time on the Kings -- who had 38 PFs and no real PG early in the year -- his 2 yr averages (incl. SAC) are 11.6 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 0.7 apg in 26 mpg. He'll backup both Lee and Chandler and play well alongside both.

Trevor Booker, PF/C
Another gritty guy and team-first defender, Booker was, at 6-7", 7 blocks away from avergaing 1blk + 1stl. He adds depth at the 4 (and 3 where he's already told WAS he's willing to play if need be).

Deeper Bench

Gustavo Ayon PF/C
A rookie surprise who missed that 1blk + 1stl plateau by 8 blocks. He's a highly efficient player who rebounds well for a youngster

Eric Bledsoe, PG
Burried behind CP3 and Billups, Bledsoe lost playing time last year, but CP3 raved about his defense and willingness to be ready when called on. He made the difference in at least one playoff game for the Clips off the bench

Leandro Barbosa
A veteran speedster who can shoot the 3 and defend Barbosa will get minutes at the PG and SG slots, and is very strong, deep bench injury insurance.

Dante Cunningham, PF
A versatile 13th man who can play the 3 or the 4 and defend well off the bench


4. Toughest Decision
I think our toughest decision was one we didn't make... at different times we discussed moving David Lee for Kenneth Faried. While I had Faried ranked a few spots higher than Lee, I ultimately thought Lee fit a little better with his bulk and added scoring on a team already low on scoring with Chandler and Battier.


5. Best/Worst move
Best - DRafting Tony Parker at #20 --- I know that's a bit odd to be my best move, but Parker is criminially underated in this and the real NBA --- he's a 3-time champion, Finals MVP, led the Spurs to back-to-back best regular season records and finished 5th in the MVP voting this year. Parker has been a top 10 player for the last 2 seasons.


Worst -- Trading down to often -- I dealt 3.5 for 3.17 for 4.5... missing out on Luol Deng, Danny Granger and Gerald Wallace at SF.

(probably have some other Best/Worst, but my spreadsheet crashed so i'm going a bit on memory).



6. Season Outlook
I think we're a little bit like last year's Celtics.... we're not concerned or realistic about getting the #1 seed in the West, but we do think that our team's balanced makeup, efficiency and defensive commitment will give us a legit, if non-favorite, chance at making the finals.

For a team picking #20, that ain't to shabby.

[StartOrien]

Can Lee hold up against Milsap

[Kane3387]

Can Lee hold up against Milsap

I got to give the edge to Milsap based on the eye test. I think it's pretty close though.

[jgod213]

Can Lee hold up against Milsap

I got to give the edge to Milsap based on the eye test. I think it's pretty close though.

Oh it's absoluely close.  Really close.

What seperates it for me was looking at those advanced stats.  I'm not a be-all end-all person when it comes to those metrics, but when every single one gives an edge to Millsap, it's pretty telling.

This matchup is also interesting because both guys have a definite "rap" on this blog.  Not an actual hip-hop single...that would be pretty sweet...

but Lee has that Mo Williams scarlett-letter to a degree, too much of it if you ask me.  And Millsap, well he's just the forgotten man at times.  Does his job quietly, efficiently, and in Utah, so he tends to get lost in the shuffle.

[StartOrien]

I think this series comes down to Tony Parker. He's the Hornets best chance.

Portland - do you have an overall strategy on how to combat TP?

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Blazers by a hair.

I love the Lee - Parker combo and I think it'll do a ton of damage, but I just don't see Chandler and any wing defender from NO slowing down Howard and Joe Johnson. And even if the do, I think they'll do enough production and that will take the cake.

[Kane3387]

Who is Shane Battier defending in this series and who is Ray Allen defending?

^ Important.

[Gainesville Celtic]

New Orleans Hornets Gainesville Celtic

Tony Parker
Ray Allen
Shane Battier
David Lee
Tyson Chandler

JJ Barea, Eric Bledsoe, Leandro Barbosa, James Johnson, Trevor Booker, Dante Cunningham, JJ Hickson, Gustavo Ayon

HC: Jeff Van Gundy



Portland Trailblazers jgod213

Ricky Rubio
Joe Johnson
Wilson Chandler
Paul Millsap
Dwight Howard

Beno Udrih, Marco Belinelli, Brandon Knight, Matt Barnes, Matt Bonner, Charlie Villanueva, Josh McRoberts, Chuck Hayes

HC: Eric Spoelstra

I'll be honest -- I voted PORTLAND as the #1 seed in the West. I think they're a well-put together team with a once-in-a-generation defensive talent.  But here's how I see us matching up. The Hornets got a chance of an upset, but it'd be just that: an upset.



Point Guard

Tony Parker/JJ Barea vs. Ricky Rubio/Beno Udrih

Parker is by far the better player -- though Rubio is an exciting talent who will be a very good NBA player. But he's only played 1/2 a NBA season.

Parker will frustrate him on the defensive end and will regularly get by him on the offensive end.

Edge: Hornets



Shooting Guard

Ray Allen/Leandro Barbosa vs. Joe Johnson/Marco Bellineli

Ray Allen will have his hands full with JJ, but if we've seen anything over the last few years its that Allen is a willing if unspectacular defender.

I'd argue the guard position will largely be a draw, but this one is

Edge: Blazers


Small Forward

Shane Battier/James Johnson vs. Wilson Chandler/Matt Barnes

Battier & Johnson -- who are being really underrated in this draft IMO -- were selected as lock-down wing defenders to have to deal with the likes of Lebron, Chandler and Rudy Gay. I think between the two of them, they'll limit Chandler's athleticism. Chandler's a guy i like a lot, but he's a bit inconsistent.



Edge: Very Slight Blazers


Power Forward

David Lee/Trevor Booker vs. Paul Milsap/Matt Bonner

Another slight edge Portland. Lee is a prolific offensive talent. Milsap and Lee are both plus rebounders and will play to another virtual draw.


Edge: Very Slight Blazers


Center

Tyson Chandler/JJ Hickson/ Gustavo Ayon vs. Dwight Howard/Chuck Hayes

Like the Celtics have done with Howard over the years, we're gonna play him straight up, use all 18 fouls we have along the front line (and a few more from our bench guys) to put him on the line and break up the flow of the Blazers game.

Howard can win you a game on the defensive game and take you out of a game on the offensive end when he tries to do too much. That's our hope -- that we can goad him into taking too many bad shots and that our other 4 positions can hold their own defensively.

Edge: Blazers



Keys to Hornet Victory

1. Parker playing like Tony Parker can and getting consistently into the lane drawing the defenders to open up shots for Allen, Battier, Lee and Chandler. He's overlooked consistently in Celticblog drafts, but Parker has proven to be a top-10 player over the last 2 seasons. We go as far as he takes us and vs. a much slower Rubio/Udrih combo, we think he cna be dominant for this series.

2. Getting Howard trying to do too much and getting in his head by getting him to the line often.

3. Jeff Van Gundy figuring out ways to outmanuever Eric Spoelstra... JVG knows much more than I about strategy so we'll defer to him...