2012 CB Draft Western Conference Playoffs: (4) Suns vs. (5) Clippers

[Roy H.]

[ChampKind]

Busy week for me. I'll try to make it brief.

Kevin Love is great, but Dirk is a tough matchup for him. Neither one excels at defense but the German is the more proficient and experienced scorer. While Love will be able to use his range to get his points, The Hibbert/Favors combination underneath should help limit his interior scoring thanks to their help defense. With Noah as the Suns' only true center, I'm not sure Phoenix has the scoring at the 5 to make our big men pay for being overzealous with help defense on Kevin Love.

Granted, he can absolutely make us pay from long range, but I think a steady diet of Hibs's length and Favors's athleticism will be a deterrent inside if Dirk gets beat. Dirk is a better defender than people give him credit for, and I'm not sure that Love has the quickness to make him look bad in this series.

There is a plan B that makes sense, though. Tayshaun Prince isn't the scoring threat that he used to be, and Shawn Marion still has the feet and old man strength to defend the four. A small-ball lineup predicated on the Marion/Love matchup could be the thing that cools down a hot-handed KLove.

The other big problem will be containing Steve Nash. Nash keeps getting older but fails to play like it. Dragic and Collison are both decent defenders who can throw different techniques at Nash - Dragic is a bit bigger, Collison a bit faster - but neither are lockdown defenders. They'll be able to keep him in check, but if he goes off, he goes off. Fortunately, the last few seasons have proven that Nash can go HAM and still lose basketball games if his team doesn't have a definitive edge at the other positions. I think that's the case here.

My biggest advantage will be at SG, where Eric Gordon and my bench microwave Demar DeRozan will run up against Jason Richardson and Jamal Crawford. Richardson could very well have a bounce back year, but his defense against 2s has been slipping. Crawford is undersized at the 2 and was never known for his defense. Between that gap at SG and Love's lack of big-time D, I think the Suns are a good matchup for us. The two positions that the Clips have their biggest scoring threats are also two of the positions where PHX is weak defensively.

Finally, LAC's depth should be a deciding factor as well. Let's look at (projected) eight man units:

Dragic/Collison/Gordon/DeRozan/Marion/Dirk/Hibbert/Favors

vs.

Nash/Miller/Richardson/Crawford/Prince/Love/Jamison/Noah

The Clips are the younger, more athletic team, and should have the edge defensively. I think that's what gets us over the hump for the slight upset in a tightly fought contest.

[Kane3387]

What's up champ?

Truly an intriguing matchup.

How well do you see Dragic playing against his former mentor?

I read your thoughts on Dirk Vs Love. Why is Dirk going to be more 2011 then 2012?

Also what about the Hibbert and Noah matchup? Noah's activity seems to give Hibbert some issues from a rebounding standpoint.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hibbero01&p2=noahjo01

What are your thoughts on that matchup? Right now I see it as a draw.

I think what ultimately could give you the edge here is the play of Eric Gordon. Assuming Dragic can compete with Nash.

[ChampKind]

How well do you see Dragic playing against his former mentor?

Dragic's development into a high level starter last season was impressive. He averaged 18.9 points and 7.7 assists in the final month of the season while keying Houston's offense through both dribble-drive penetration and long range shooting. His familiarity with Nash will benefit him more in this matchup than it will Steve. Nash has only declined - albeit slightly - since they were teammates on the Suns. Dragic has improved steadily. I think he'll be even better in 2013 and be able to keep pace with Nash in these playoffs.

I read your thoughts on Dirk Vs Love. Why is Dirk going to be more 2011 then 2012?

I'm of the mindset that Dirk's poor 2011 was due to a number of factors. He was out of shape from the lockout, he didn't have Chandler protecting the rim (or providing even just a semblance of offense from the 5), and his ownership basically gave up their chance to defend his title. This year, without Germany in the Olympics, he'll have the chance to come into the season in better shape (back on his normal schedule), he'll have quality defenders to either side of him, and he'll have a team that can finally make a belated defense of his 2011 title.

If you look at the way that Dirk came on towards the end of the season, he still had the juice to be the player he was in 2011. Now that we've got the mental side of things taken care of, he'll have every opportunity to be the best player that he can be.

Also what about the Hibbert and Noah matchup? Noah's activity seems to give Hibbert some issues from a rebounding standpoint.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hibbero01&p2=noahjo01

What are your thoughts on that matchup? Right now I see it as a draw.

Noah's peskiness is definitely something that chips away at a steady, but less athletic, player like Hibbert. Hibs will have to repeat his performance in this year's playoffs to give LAC an edge at the 5. Ultimately, it may take another athletic frontcourt player like Favors to cool off Noah if he ends up beasting out.

Another solid question - is Noah ready to be, ostensibly, the third offensive option for a playoff team? Having Nash in the backcourt will open up plenty of good looks for him, but is he steady enough as an offensive producer to carry that burden?

...actually, I think so. I think Noah will be just fine in this series (I'm...not great at debating). The Suns's bigger problem will be what to do when Noah goes to the bench. Their backup C right now is Tristan Thompson, so if Hibbert and Noah can play each other to a standstill, the Favors/Thompson disparity should be enough to give LA the edge in the frontcourt.

I think what ultimately could give you the edge here is the play of Eric Gordon. Assuming Dragic can compete with Nash.

I'll agree with you there. I think we have the scoring and enough defense to win a tightly contested matchup here. The Clips are more athletic and younger, and that should be enough to pull away in a best-of-seven series.

[jgod213]

Pretty sad to see so little participation today.  Don't know what to make of it...


Anyways, Q for LAC:

Does Dirk need to outplay Kevin Love for you to win this series? 

Based on their last 3 matchups I don't get the feeling he can, especially now that Love is paired next to Noah and he can wash away the nightmare of Darko Milicic.

[ChampKind]

Pretty sad to see so little participation today.  Don't know what to make of it...


Anyways, Q for LAC:

Does Dirk need to outplay Kevin Love for you to win this series? 

Based on their last 3 matchups I don't get the feeling he can, especially now that Love is paired next to Noah and he can wash away the nightmare of Darko Milicic.

Nope. We've got enough scoring across the board to deal with a Love breakout. Even if Love blows up in his first playoff appearance, he doesn't have the defensive game that can limit Dirk enough to cripple the Clips. Even if Love gets the edge on Dirk, our big advantage at the 2 and superior depth should be enough to pull out the series.

Additionally, Dirk's last three matchups with Love came in the midst of his post-lockout, out-of-shape, rough 2011-2012. I'm not sure that that is enough to base a changing of the guard on. And, if we're talking Love's improvement from Milicic to Noah, let's not discount Dirk's improvement going from an upturned mop with a bucket for a head to Hibbert/Favors.

[Kane3387]

Champ matches up well with this team. BigAl better get in here and make some convincing arguments for his squad.

Eric Gordon is key in this series.

How do others feel about the PG matchup?

[jgod213]

Pretty sad to see so little participation today.  Don't know what to make of it...


Anyways, Q for LAC:

Does Dirk need to outplay Kevin Love for you to win this series? 

Based on their last 3 matchups I don't get the feeling he can, especially now that Love is paired next to Noah and he can wash away the nightmare of Darko Milicic.

Nope. We've got enough scoring across the board to deal with a Love breakout. Even if Love blows up in his first playoff appearance, he doesn't have the defensive game that can limit Dirk enough to cripple the Clips. Even if Love gets the edge on Dirk, our big advantage at the 2 and superior depth should be enough to pull out the series.

Additionally, Dirk's last three matchups with Love came in the midst of his post-lockout, out-of-shape, rough 2011-2012. I'm not sure that that is enough to base a changing of the guard on. And, if we're talking Love's improvement from Milicic to Noah, let's not discount Dirk's improvement going from an upturned mop with a bucket for a head to Hibbert/Favors.

Well even if we go back to 2010 the numbers really favor Love - i think a torch is being passed.  I agree with you tho that Dirk should have a bounce back this year.  Too much pride, too much talent.

Also Champ, can i get you on record for some regular season numbers for (real nba) Eric Gordon?  Jump on that train, baby.  I love his game, pullin' for the kid.

[Kane3387]

How well do you see Dragic playing against his former mentor?

Dragic's development into a high level starter last season was impressive. He averaged 18.9 points and 7.7 assists in the final month of the season while keying Houston's offense through both dribble-drive penetration and long range shooting. His familiarity with Nash will benefit him more in this matchup than it will Steve. Nash has only declined - albeit slightly - since they were teammates on the Suns. Dragic has improved steadily. I think he'll be even better in 2013 and be able to keep pace with Nash in these playoffs.

I read your thoughts on Dirk Vs Love. Why is Dirk going to be more 2011 then 2012?

I'm of the mindset that Dirk's poor 2011 was due to a number of factors. He was out of shape from the lockout, he didn't have Chandler protecting the rim (or providing even just a semblance of offense from the 5), and his ownership basically gave up their chance to defend his title. This year, without Germany in the Olympics, he'll have the chance to come into the season in better shape (back on his normal schedule), he'll have quality defenders to either side of him, and he'll have a team that can finally make a belated defense of his 2011 title.

If you look at the way that Dirk came on towards the end of the season, he still had the juice to be the player he was in 2011. Now that we've got the mental side of things taken care of, he'll have every opportunity to be the best player that he can be.

Also what about the Hibbert and Noah matchup? Noah's activity seems to give Hibbert some issues from a rebounding standpoint.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=hibbero01&p2=noahjo01

What are your thoughts on that matchup? Right now I see it as a draw.

Noah's peskiness is definitely something that chips away at a steady, but less athletic, player like Hibbert. Hibs will have to repeat his performance in this year's playoffs to give LAC an edge at the 5. Ultimately, it may take another athletic frontcourt player like Favors to cool off Noah if he ends up beasting out.

Another solid question - is Noah ready to be, ostensibly, the third offensive option for a playoff team? Having Nash in the backcourt will open up plenty of good looks for him, but is he steady enough as an offensive producer to carry that burden?

...actually, I think so. I think Noah will be just fine in this series (I'm...not great at debating). The Suns's bigger problem will be what to do when Noah goes to the bench. Their backup C right now is Tristan Thompson, so if Hibbert and Noah can play each other to a standstill, the Favors/Thompson disparity should be enough to give LA the edge in the frontcourt.

I think what ultimately could give you the edge here is the play of Eric Gordon. Assuming Dragic can compete with Nash.

I'll agree with you there. I think we have the scoring and enough defense to win a tightly contested matchup here. The Clips are more athletic and younger, and that should be enough to pull away in a best-of-seven series.

Nicely done. Thanks.

[Who]

I was very impressed with the way K-Love played against Dirk this past season. Dirk looked very uncomfortable defending that far out on the floor. Couldn't help and recover quick enough on pick and pops or contain Love's step back jumper.

Prior to that, I would've expected Dirk to have the advantage here but now I no longer do. I would put it either at neutral or advantage K-Love due to his superior rebounding (large difference there). 

[Kane3387]

I was very impressed with the way K-Love played against Dirk this past season. Dirk looked very uncomfortable defending that far out on the floor. Couldn't help and recover quick enough on pick and pops or contain Love's step back jumper.

Prior to that, I would've expected Dirk to have the advantage here but now I no longer do. I would put it either at neutral or advantage K-Love due to his superior rebounding (large difference there).

I agree. I give Love the advantage. It's small though, I give Nash the advantage but I think it is only bit more then the one Love has on Dirk. I think the Center matchup and SF matchup are pretty even. However I think Eric Gordon is a big advantage for the Clippers.

And it isn't helping that Phoenix is not here.

[ronaldo943]

Yea where is Phoenix?

[BigAlTheFuture]

Sorry, guys. I will be busy the whole day so I'll try to make this quick.

Kevin Love and Dirk are pretty close in terms of talent level at this stage in their careers, but I think Love will have the upper-hand because he's younger and he will out-hustle Dirk the whole series. Not to mention, he'll make Dirk work hard for every defensive rebound he gets. I don't think Dirk will have enough energy to outwork K-Love for an entire playoff series. K-Love's range will also be a problem. Dirk will have to guard him from the perimeter the whole series.

Goran Dragic is a very good young point guard. But Steve Nash is still Steve Nash. Neither point guard will lock each other down on defense, but Nash's playmaking abilities and deadly jumper will be hard for any of LAC's point guards to defend. I honestly expect Nash to have a field day against Dragic.

I do agree with Champ that he does have an advantage at the 2, but Eric Gordon is coming off a pretty big injury and DeRozan is still very young. Richardson and Crawford are proven veterans and we all know they can be productive in a playoff series while Gordon and DeRozan has never came close to being the playoffs. I expect Richardson to have a bounce back year playing with Nash. I do think Champ has me beat at this position, but it's not by a big margin like everybody thinks.

Offensively, Hibbert is superior to Noah, obviously. But I think Noah's defense will really bother Hibbert. I think Noah will be our key factor in this series. His defensive tenacity and great rebounding will wear down Hibbert.

I have proven starters and bench players that could be counted on to win a playoff game. I think most of these games will come down to the wire, but experience players always pulls out the W at the end.

Ultimately, I think my experience and rebounding will win us the series. Neither Hibbert or Dirk are strong rebounders. Kevin Love and Noah are both arguably the best rebounders at their position. And when you give Nash extra possessions, forget about it.

[Who]

This is the series in the West that is causing me the most problems. Very close series.

[Donoghus]

This is the series in the West that is causing me the most problems. Very close series.

Same here.