according to Chris Forsberg's twitter...
How did Robert Williams fare, defensively, vs. Anthony Davis?
The NBA's tracking data had Williams defending Davis on a team-high 32 possessions (tied with Daniel Theis) and allowing 15 points on 7-of-17 shooting with 2 blocks (Theis allowed Davis 21 points on 8-of-13 FG)
So is it correct to interpret this as Davis scoring 15 pts in 32 possessions against Williams so this would be 46.9 pts per 100 possessions? I know by this same math Theis would have given up over 65 pts/100 but I am just trying to make sure I am interpreting these data correctly.
I am not trying to knock Williams (or Theis). It was clear that NOP was working the Davis match up. He took 34 shots. 41 pts on 34 shots is not crazy, it is a lot of shots.
I think Williams is coming along nicely.
I don't think that is what he means. Williams guarded AD on 32 possessions. In those 32 possessions, AD took 17 shots, converting on only 7 of them (this doesn't include free throws). On the remaining possessions, other Pelicans' players took shots with varying levels of success. This would add to the total amount of pts/100 since AD isn't the only player taking and making shots...even if it sometimes feels like it.
What the data does show is the Williams did a considerably better job defending AD 1 on 1 than Theis. Stevens probably also noticed this which is why Williams was re-inserted quickly (I think near the end of the 3rd) when Theis was letting AD have a field day on him on several consecutive possessions.
What the data does not really show is team defense, where I think Theis currently has a discernible edge on Williams...but that's because one is a young rookie and the other a 26 yo former DPOY in his former league.
The tl;dr of it all - Williams was surprisingly good and we should be happy he is developing at a nice pace.
I am not sure I follow this. The original stats said that Davis scored 15 pts in 32 minutes that Williams covered him. What you are getting at is how many points the team scored in those 32 minutes. Two completely different things.
My extrapolation would be based on the assumption that Davis got the same exact usage rate and scored at the same exact efficiency over 100 possessions as he did in the 32 possessions that are referenced. I think the numbers per 100 possessions look high because NOP was forcing the ball to him thinking they had a favorable match up and so Davis had an unusually high usage rate.
Of course it is not realistic that Davis would be on the court for 100 possessions, that is just a way to normalize the data, like per 36 minutes. This type of normalization does create some distortion of course.
I must have misunderstood your point. I was referring to NOP having a total of 32 possessions with Williams guarding AD. On those 32 possessions, AD only scored 15 points (I say only because his usage rate was so high - 17 shots on 32 possessions is very high usage). It is actually possible for AD to be on the court for 100 NOP possessions in a game - he just wouldn't be taking shots on all of them. That is why I referenced other players taking and making shots above.
I think you are referencing a different metric where a player's points are compared to the team's total possessions (rather than team points/team possessions. In this case, AD's 46.9 pts/100 possessions would, on the surface, look quite good, but when you delve deeper, you see that the efficiency is less than impressive (17 shots to get 15 points).
I apologize if you were referring to something different. I have really only ever seen points/100 possessions referenced in terms of team points, not an individual. You are right - two totally different things.