So, I set out to answer the question: "Just what kind of impact are our young players making, particularly in comparison to their peers?" The standard "one number for everything" stats have been unsatisfying to me, in large part because I don't understand how they are calculated.
I decided to try and determine, simply, the net positive contributions that our players make - I.e. Positives minus negatives. I weighed certain categories more heavily than others, but I think it's fairly straightforward and obvious.
The basic equation:
Positives = (O-Rating / 10) + (Points + Assists + DReb + 3PM + FTA) + ((Steals + Blocks + OReb) * 2)
Negatives = (D-Rating / 10) + (FGA + PF) + (TO * 2)
I did not attempt to adjust for pace, or minutes played. Those are to be considered by the viewer of the results. This equation gives double value to box score events related to the creation / loss of a possession, because it's a double-sided event (one team gets a possession, the other team loses one). Extra points are given for three point makes and free throw attempts because they have intrinsic value beyond the points scored.
It should be noted that the baseline for each position / role is going to be different. Centers naturally do more box score things than off-ball guards, for example.
I plugged stats for the Celtics' younger players and similar young players around the league into this equation to try to get a sense of how the Celtics stack up.
I.
First: Marcus Smart versus Other Young Point Guards
Smart - 29.1 POS / 21.0 NEG ... 8.1 NET in 22 mpg
Payton - 33.6 POS / 25.1 NEG ... 8.5 NET in 27.5 mpg
Napier - 24.4 POS / 20.4 NEG ... 4.0 NET in 21.1 mpg
Schroder - 26.4 POS / 22.5 NEG ... 3.9 NET in 17.8 mpg
Lavine - 27.8 POS / 26.2 NEG ... 1.6 NET in 23.5 mpg
Exum - 20.5 POS / 19.5 NEG ... 1.0 NET in 18.6 mpg
Smart leads this group in overall productivity by a significant margin, despite getting less positive attention nationally than most of them. Payton has a higher number, but plays 5 more mpg. Smart does fewer negative things per minute, gets steals, has a good assist to turnover ratio, and hits threes.
Guys like Lavine, Exum, and Schroder are overrated for being more scoring oriented and having greater athleticism, in my opinion. I won't be surprised to see Smart continue to lead this group in the future.
For comparison, a high-end example of this role:
Isaiah Thomas - 42.2 POS / 28.4 NEG ... 13.8 NET in 25.6 mpg.
The perfect sparkplug guard.
II.
Bradley vs Other Youngish Off-Ball SGs
Bradley - 31.9 POS / 28.0 NEG ... 3.9 NET in 30.3 mpg
Shumpert - 31.9 POS / 26.5 NEG ... 5.4 NET in 26 mpg
Fournier - 34.3 POS / 27 NEG ... 7.3 NET in 30.5 mpg
Ross - 31.1 POS / 25.1 NEG ... 6.0 NET in 27.3 mpg
Caldwell-Pope - 33.2 POS / 26.3 NEG ... 6.9 NET in 31.5 mpg
Bradley doesn't look so hot in this grouping. His negatives lead the group. It hurts him that he doesn't get to the free throw line, rebound, or get assists. His points are basically equal to his field goal attempts. He also doesn't get many steals despite his ball hawk rep, and his defensive rating is actually really high. That comes from playing big minutes on a bad defensive team, but still he hasn't made a big enough defensive contribution to impact the team defense in a significant way.
None of these guys is a huge contributor, though.
For comparison, a high-end example of this role:
Danny Green - 38.9 POS / 24.7 NEG ... 14.2 NET in 30.9 mpg.
Low-usage perfection.
Just to give you an idea of the upper bound of this, check out Anthony Davis's historic season.
Anthony Davis - 67.8 POS / 31.8 NEG ... 36.0 NET in 36 mpg.
Exactly two positives for every negative each minute he's on the floor. Wow.
I'll post about the young big men - Sully, KO, Zeller - later.
Thoughts? Comments? Constructive criticism of my method and corrections in my calculations (the numbers are a week or so old, though) are welcome.