Woj: Jrue Extends with Celtics (4 Years, $135M)

[Vermont Green]

Not sure what to make of this deal. Saves money next season and the cap keeps going up. My biggest concern is how redundant White and Holiday are. If we end with Tatum, Brown, White, and Holiday all on big contracts, how do we pay for bigs not named Porzingis.  Trade a guard at some point?  Hope we get lucky in the draft? 

[ozgod]

So based on Woj's reporting on NBA Countdown that the first year will be $30.1m, I updated my graphic from earlier in the year on our cap situation in 2024-25:

click to enlarge


We would still be over the second apron with everyone we have on the books for next season (you can see the numbers on the active roster cap to the right).

So if we wanted to re-sign Luke or X or any of the kids that folks here are so excited about, and give Hauser a raise, it's going to push us to over the $200m mark, and it's only going to go higher with JT and Derrick due extensions. Something's going to give, we're not going to keep the gang together forever. Not unless Brad wants to tell Wyc he might eventually be paying $200m+ in luxury tax (Warriors are paying nearly $400m in salaries and luxury tax now for a team struggling to make the play in) and live over the second apron 

Right now at the top end those salaries we're paying people seem tradable at least - certainly we can argue that after the season he's had there will be takers for Jaylen if we offered him for trade with 5 years of control even at $50m. Same goes for Porzingis. I'm less certain about Jrue at $30m but I think we could probably find takers for him next season or after if we had to trade him with 4 years of control ($25m would have been better obviously so the key will be to trade him while other GMs still think he's worth $30m a year). Even if we re-sign Al for a vet min at the end of his contract end of next year that only saves us $10m so it's going to have to be one of those top 5 that will move the needle if we wanted to reset the repeater tax.

(feel free to point out any errors I may have made to the numbers but I'm pretty confident I checked them all)

[ozgod]

I believe this means there will be a point at which Jaylen is making more than Jrue and Porzingis combined.

An underrated part of Brad’s strategy is he rarely lets core players play with expiring contracts (see: KP, Jaylen, Pritchard). I think it really helps team chemistry and is really informed by his experience coaching contract year Morris and Rozier.

It's also so they remain fungible which increases his financial flexibility if he has to move someone. And someone's definitely going to have to be moved eventually. That's probably the most important aspect of this transaction...the Cs maintain control of Jrue for 4 more years, so they can trade him if they need to rather than him walking away after next year. Brad seems to be a very big believer in maintaining control of assets, he probably backs his ability to trade them elsewhere if he needs to, he's proven he's pretty cold-blooded about that. Of course, Jrue needs to hold up his end of the bargain by playing well enough to not tank his value 

[Roy H.]

That's seems like a premium.  We'll see if Wyc keeps spending.

[Kuberski33]

Ticket prices are going up, that's for sure.

[green_bballers13]

Not sure what to make of this deal. Saves money next season and the cap keeps going up. My biggest concern is how redundant White and Holiday are. If we end with Tatum, Brown, White, and Holiday all on big contracts, how do we pay for bigs not named Porzingis.  Trade a guard at some point?  Hope we get lucky in the draft?

Not sure if we need expensive bigs not named Porzingis. With these expensive guards and wings, I think we can win with affordable backup bigs.

[green_bballers13]

That's seems like a premium.  We'll see if Wyc keeps spending.

After Jaylen, this is two big deals in a row. Tatum's deal will be huge, and I even think they might bring back White on a deserved premium. Does this mean that Wyc might not be cheap for letting TPE's go unused?

[green_bballers13]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

[86MaxwellSmart]

Great deal because Jrue could have left after this season. Takes the pressure off this year a bit...and they could always trade him in a couple of years if things don't work out. Wyc stepping up and doing the smart thing.

[Roy H.]

That's seems like a premium.  We'll see if Wyc keeps spending.

After Jaylen, this is two big deals in a row. Tatum's deal will be huge, and I even think they might bring back White on a deserved premium. Does this mean that Wyc might not be cheap for letting TPE's go unused?

Well, I'm not sure one says much about the other.  If Wyc is fully committed to spending now, it doesn't mean he was previously, or that his fiscal restraint was the best choice.

It does mean that at this moment in time, it would be hard to call Wyc "cheap".  none of us know how long this is going to keep going, but at present Wyc is spending adequately for a contender.

[Moranis]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible. 

[satch]

That is a terrible contract for C's

Ok, let's hear your take.... Is it because he's old, not good, going to get hurt, and could prevent them from signing a better player?

It is way too much and way too many years.  Holiday is in his 15th season this year.  You can count on 1 hand the number of players that perform at even a reasonably high level that deep into their careers and just because we've seen 3 of them recently (i.e. Lebron, Paul, and Durant this year) doesn't make it the norm.  The salary structure even with him off the books was tenuous going forward with Tatum and Brown both on supermax deals and Porzingis still under contract.  You then have White that needs to be re-signed.  Even with the cap going up, it is a ton of money to spend on your 5th most important player that will be in years 16, 17, 18, and 19 during the life of the extension.  Holiday isn't going to be able to play PG at a high level much longer and he isn't big enough or a consistent enough shooter to play off the ball.  He has already lost a couple of steps defensively as well (he is still very good, but not elite, and he isn't going to magically get better, only worse).

In 25-26, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, and KP are going to make over 110% of the cap (around 175 million).  White is presumably going to get something in the same range as Jrue and KP, which adds another 30 million or so (20% or so of cap).  So 205 million or 130% of the cap from just 5 people.  Pritchard is another 7.2 million or 4.5% and is the only other guaranteed contract that season (Horford and Hauser are free agents before that year as well). 

And Jrue's contract won't be easy to trade because of his age, his diminishing production, and his overall skill set so the team is stuck with him, which means it likely isn't signing White or is trading Brown.  The team just isn't financially feasible at those dollars.  This is a move that gives good vibes to the team right now, but is a horrid contract going forward.  It is basically indefensible.

Just a guess but I think JB will eventually be traded.

[bdm860]

One thing to consider, I believe the cap is expected to rise a lot during most of Jrue's extension.

Next year the cap is foretasted to be $141m (a 3.66% increase), but for the '26, '27, and '28 seasons, the cap is likely to rise 10% per year.

10% annual raises is because the NBA's current media deal ($24b) expires after next season, and it's said the NBA is expecting something in the range of $60b to $72b on the next deal.  But one of the things added to the latest CBA last year was that the max the cap could increase is 10% per year, so instead of getting a massive spike in the summer of '25 similar to what we got in '16, it instead will increase 10% per year (until all of the new media deal + regular growth gets factored in).

So in '28 the final year of Jrue's extension, the cap could very well be $188m, the luxury tax $228m, the 2nd apron $252m.

[keevsnick]

That's seems like a premium.  We'll see if Wyc keeps spending.

After Jaylen, this is two big deals in a row. Tatum's deal will be huge, and I even think they might bring back White on a deserved premium. Does this mean that Wyc might not be cheap for letting TPE's go unused?

Well, I'm not sure one says much about the other.  If Wyc is fully committed to spending now, it doesn't mean he was previously, or that his fiscal restraint was the best choice.

It does mean that at this moment in time, it would be hard to call Wyc "cheap".  none of us know how long this is going to keep going, but at present Wyc is spending adequately for a contender.

The Celtics are spending a lot this year, but this is really the first year they've been well into the tax. They'll spend a lot next year as well, tho not dramatically more than this year because although browns contract increases Jrue's will now decrease and offset some of that.

The real test is in 25-26, that year with Brown, Tatum, this contract and extension for White the Celtics would likely be the most expensive NBA team ever assembled with a massive Luxury tax bill due to their salary stricture AND the repeater tax.

SO before we all rush to congratulate Wyc let's see what happens long term. If they end up dumping salary a year from now it won't look quite as rosy.

My take on this is: You do this because you have a two, maybe three, year window and Holiday is a critical part of that. But the last two years of that contract could be VERY ugly and hamstring you in a big way. Its a risk.

[ozgod]

Not that anyone will care since it's not our money but the move, while not doing much to help us get under the second apron, will save Wyc about $30m next year in tax and payroll apparently (assuming they do nothing else).