If you are what you are.....

[jasail]

I think Nick makes a very good point in his OP (TP) and I think the lynch-pin of that argument is that they have been 7-7 since everyone has been healthy and in their roles.  While not a tremendous amount of games, I think that 12% of the season is a large enough sample size to conclude that have played at a very average level.

I heard that they would turn it one down the stretch when everyone was healthy, and they haven't. So, I have a very hard time believing that once the post-season starts their going to rebound, run the floor, not settle for jump shots and play 48 minutes of defense.  

The reason for my pessimism is that when I watch this team I see a group of guys that do not have their legs under them. I think age, injury and general fitness has killed this team's endurance.  A team that does not run, slash, rebound or play defense throughout the game, is a team that is out of shape. Personally I do not think it is a lack of heart or hustle, rather a lack of legs.  The biggest indicator of this may be second half performances.  Often they come out and play hard in the first half and go into the break with a strong lead. But in the second half they come out and they are tight, they become a jump shooting team and they take possessions off on defense.  IMO the tired legs stiffen up and sap the endurance.

To an extent I have to blame this on Danny and Doc.  Their focus on pampering the vets (ie fewer practices) is part of the root problem.  I think they worried about the mileage at the expense of the maintainence.  It's like letting and old car sit.  If you do not run i,t it may not turn over. But if you take it out too much, you are going to need to repair it.  It is a horrible metaphor, but as the owner of a 1992 Camry (210,000 mi) it was the first thing that came to mind.

Having watched Paul and KG since they have come into the league, I have a hard time believing that any team they are on would dog it.  They are both true competitors and spent most of their careers playing their hearts out for terrible teams.  I just cannot see those two guys resting on their laurels and playing half-assed.  Yes there are guys in the locker room who are notorious for it, but those two are the leaders and the team should take their personality.  I honestly do not think it is a lack of effort.  Unfortunately, it is a lack of physical ability to make good on the effort.

[Potapenko Boxout]

let's get shelden out there

[mobilija]

Then since Christmas Night, when the Celtic beat Orlando to go 23-5, a span of 98 days or 14 weeks, the Celtics are 24-23. That's right, for a span of time that is longer than a quarter of a calendar year the Boston Celtics have been basically a .500 team.

And the time for reasoning is up. They were injured. They had people playing in different roles. They were bored. They were rehabbing and playing back into game shape. They were saving themselves. When everyone was healthy and playing together again, you watch, things will change.

Well, they haven't. Since March 7th they have, with the exception of Perk missing two games, been healthy and intact and playing their roles. They have looked much better on a consistent basis but the results have been the same. In that time they are 7-7.

You want to be optimistic and positive and not count this team out until they are down by more than one possession of the ball with seconds left on the clock in a season ending loss in the playoffs, well, that's your prerogative and it's understandable. I will be cheering to the very end right along with you.

But you can not deny admitting that this team is what it is. And what it is is a very inconsistent, very mediocre .500 team that has trouble giving a proper effort every game and has major rebounding and turnover prone deficiencies that tax an already aging core to do more than they might have within themselves to give.

Could they suddenly shelve everything that plagues them and go on a roll and beat everyone? Sure they could. Anything is possible. But how even the most optimistic of Celtics fans can't look at the results of the last 3+ months and can't admit that the likelihood of a championship is diminishing quicker than the likelihood of a Tiger and Elin reconciliation, is beyond me.

I don't think the horse you're beating has any life left in it. I think most educated celtics fans (which I think this blog is largely comprised of) get it. This team has several flaws that have been widely discussed. There are probably 5 or 6 teams that are currently in a better space to make a championship run.

But, the outlook of this team changed after Christmas and the outlook of this team could change after Easter or whenever. While there are still games to play, there is still a chance. I for one, will not give up hope because the percentages are against us. I hope all the Debbie Downers populate only this blog and not the Celtics Orginization/Team.

Rock On and Go Celtics!

[Who]

The Celtics are 10 and 7 in their last 17 (48 win pace).

They are 6 and 4 in their last 10 (49 win pace) and lost two of those games right at the death. Two games which could have easily gone the other way.

I do not think their form has been mediocre. It's been good-to-very good. Nowhere near Championship form but not mediocre either.

[BballTim]

  I think it's hard to get a read on these guys because they're (supposedly) trying to get ready for the playoffs and not going all out to win games. We, on the other hand, are using the results of the games to judge if they're ready for the playoffs. Doc seems to be pretty happy with how the team's doing, and he doesn't have much of a reason to lie about it.

[Chris]

  I think it's hard to get a read on these guys because they're (supposedly) trying to get ready for the playoffs and not going all out to win games. We, on the other hand, are using the results of the games to judge if they're ready for the playoffs. Doc seems to be pretty happy with how the team's doing, and he doesn't have much of a reason to lie about it.

I think this is true.  I don't think they are mailing it in like they were earlier in the season, but its pretty clear to me that playoff focus is not there yet.  Even if they are trying, they are not all there mentally yet.  The question is, will they be able to regain that mental edge for the playoffs, or is this just who they are now?  We won't know that until probably May.

[nickagneta]

The Celtics are 10 and 7 in their last 17 (48 win pace).

They are 6 and 4 in their last 10 (49 win pace) and lost two of those games right at the death. Two games which could have easily gone the other way.

I do not think their form has been mediocre. It's been good-to-very good. Nowhere near Championship form but not mediocre either.

Dude, we can both play the same game until we are blue in the face:

Over the last 8 games they are 4-4, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 14 games they are 7-7, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 22 games they are 12-10, a pace of 44 wins.
Over the last 38 games they are 20-18, a pace of 43 wins.
Over the last 47 games they are 24-23, a pace of 42 wins.

[Who]

The Celtics are 10 and 7 in their last 17 (48 win pace).

They are 6 and 4 in their last 10 (49 win pace) and lost two of those games right at the death. Two games which could have easily gone the other way.

I do not think their form has been mediocre. It's been good-to-very good. Nowhere near Championship form but not mediocre either.

Dude, we can both play the same game until we are blue in the face:

Over the last 8 games they are 4-4, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 14 games they are 7-7, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 22 games they are 12-10, a pace of 44 wins.
Over the last 38 games they are 20-18, a pace of 43 wins.
Over the last 47 games they are 24-23, a pace of 42 wins.

For the first third of the season -- Boston played like a title contender

For the next half of the year -- Boston played like a .500 team

For the final quarter of the season -- Boston has played like a 50 win caliber team

[celticinorlando]

.500 basketball teams dont just turn it on come playoff time.

[PosImpos]

The Celtics are 10 and 7 in their last 17 (48 win pace).

They are 6 and 4 in their last 10 (49 win pace) and lost two of those games right at the death. Two games which could have easily gone the other way.

I do not think their form has been mediocre. It's been good-to-very good. Nowhere near Championship form but not mediocre either.

Dude, we can both play the same game until we are blue in the face:

Over the last 8 games they are 4-4, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 14 games they are 7-7, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 22 games they are 12-10, a pace of 44 wins.
Over the last 38 games they are 20-18, a pace of 43 wins.
Over the last 47 games they are 24-23, a pace of 42 wins.

For the first third of the season -- Boston played like a title contender

For the next half of the year -- Boston played like a .500 team

For the final quarter of the season -- Boston has played like a 50 win caliber team

...and a team with that kind of inconsistency isn't making it out of the second round.

[guava_wrench]

  I think it's hard to get a read on these guys because they're (supposedly) trying to get ready for the playoffs and not going all out to win games. We, on the other hand, are using the results of the games to judge if they're ready for the playoffs. Doc seems to be pretty happy with how the team's doing, and he doesn't have much of a reason to lie about it.

I think this is true.  I don't think they are mailing it in like they were earlier in the season, but its pretty clear to me that playoff focus is not there yet.  Even if they are trying, they are not all there mentally yet.  The question is, will they be able to regain that mental edge for the playoffs, or is this just who they are now?  We won't know that until probably May.

How much of the 'not being concerned about regular season wins' is just sour grapes?

[nickagneta]

The Celtics are 10 and 7 in their last 17 (48 win pace).

They are 6 and 4 in their last 10 (49 win pace) and lost two of those games right at the death. Two games which could have easily gone the other way.

I do not think their form has been mediocre. It's been good-to-very good. Nowhere near Championship form but not mediocre either.

Dude, we can both play the same game until we are blue in the face:

Over the last 8 games they are 4-4, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 14 games they are 7-7, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 22 games they are 12-10, a pace of 44 wins.
Over the last 38 games they are 20-18, a pace of 43 wins.
Over the last 47 games they are 24-23, a pace of 42 wins.

For the first third of the season -- Boston played like a title contender

For the next half of the year -- Boston played like a .500 team

For the final quarter of the season -- Boston has played like a 50 win caliber team

I just don't see it.

You say they have been playing like a 50 win team but over the last 22 games they are playing like a 44 win team, by the numbers. If you want to say they've been playing much better and only barely lost to Houston and Oklahoma and that if those games were wins they would be on a 50 win pace, I can point to the need for a comeback from 12 down to save themselves to a pathetic Washington, and poor performances in close games to New York, Detroit and a near collapse in a Sacramento game where they were up by 24 and a loss to a ten win New Jersey team. All in the last quarter of the season.

They are what they are Who. They are playing inconsistently form game to game, half to half and quarter to quarter and the results show long term near .500 records in just about any way you look at things for three plus months.

I mean do teams playing like teams on a 50 win pace really go 9-6 at home over their last 15 games?

[Who]

Next seven games

• Cleveland
• at New York
• at Toronto
• Washington
• at Milwaukee
• at Chicago
• Milwaukee

Out of their final seven games, Boston should win five or six games. Likely loss to Cleveland and possibly splitting the pair of games against Milwaukee. The four other games should be comfortable wins.

At that point, the Celtics have finished the season winning 11 or 12 of their final 17 games and 15 or 16 of their final 24.

[snively]

  I think it's hard to get a read on these guys because they're (supposedly) trying to get ready for the playoffs and not going all out to win games. We, on the other hand, are using the results of the games to judge if they're ready for the playoffs. Doc seems to be pretty happy with how the team's doing, and he doesn't have much of a reason to lie about it.

I think this is true.  I don't think they are mailing it in like they were earlier in the season, but its pretty clear to me that playoff focus is not there yet.  Even if they are trying, they are not all there mentally yet.  The question is, will they be able to regain that mental edge for the playoffs, or is this just who they are now?  We won't know that until probably May.

I think they will have a mental edge for the playoffs.  The more vexing question is whether we'll have the physical edge. Our defense, despite its statistical ranking, is showing fundamental weaknesses that are no longer overshadowed by offensive ineptitude.

Scola joins Al Harrington, Rashard Lewis, Lamar Odom, Anderson Varejao, Josh Smith, Jeff Green, Andray Blatche, Al Thornton, Amare Stoudemire and even Kris Humphries as quicker forwards who have broken down the Celtics D with apparent ease while our defense has gone into "lockdown" mode.  

This weakness has also manifested in declining pick and roll defense that has yielded devastating onslaughts from Manu, Jamal Crawford, Aaron Brooks, Chauncey Billups, Darren Collison, Devin Harris, Andre Miller, Baron Davis, Russell Westbrook, JR Smith, Deron Williams and Monta Ellis.

We've always had trouble with big, physical points who can bully Rondo and iso nightmares like Lebron, Joe Johnson and Carmelo Anthony, but pick and roll defense and KG-4th quarter mode used to be our strong points. I don't think mental effort can make up for the physical decline/personnel problems (Sheed/Baby) that have created these weaknesses.

[snively]

The Celtics are 10 and 7 in their last 17 (48 win pace).

They are 6 and 4 in their last 10 (49 win pace) and lost two of those games right at the death. Two games which could have easily gone the other way.

I do not think their form has been mediocre. It's been good-to-very good. Nowhere near Championship form but not mediocre either.

Dude, we can both play the same game until we are blue in the face:

Over the last 8 games they are 4-4, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 14 games they are 7-7, a pace of 41 wins.
Over the last 22 games they are 12-10, a pace of 44 wins.
Over the last 38 games they are 20-18, a pace of 43 wins.
Over the last 47 games they are 24-23, a pace of 42 wins.

For the first third of the season -- Boston played like a title contender

For the next half of the year -- Boston played like a .500 team

For the final quarter of the season -- Boston has played like a 50 win caliber team

I just don't see it.

You say they have been playing like a 50 win team but over the last 22 games they are playing like a 44 win team, by the numbers. If you want to say they've been playing much better and only barely lost to Houston and Oklahoma and that if those games were wins they would be on a 50 win pace, I can point to the need for a comeback from 12 down to save themselves to a pathetic Washington, and poor performances in close games to New York, Detroit and a near collapse in a Sacramento game where they were up by 24 and a loss to a ten win New Jersey team. All in the last quarter of the season.

They are what they are Who. They are playing inconsistently form game to game, half to half and quarter to quarter and the results show long term near .500 records in just about any way you look at things for three plus months.

I mean do teams playing like teams on a 50 win pace really go 9-6 at home over their last 15 games?

Pierce is healthy and effective, Ray is out of his slump, KG's pretty consistent, and Rondo has sustained his high performance level.  Perk has had his ups and downs, but the top 4 are performing at reasonably high levels.

Compare this to the team that slogged through those awful winter months with Pierce looking like he was 42, Ray clanking Js, KG alternating good and bad health days, and Perk beginning to regress, while House/Sheed/Baby completely failed in their efforts to pick up the offensive void left by the Big 3.  

We still have major issues that keep us from being elite, primarily the lack of a lock-down defensive mode and the complete lack of offensive identity once the bench players take the floor (a result of mid-season additions, declining minutes for the big 3 and the inability of Marquis Daniels to seize hold of the back-up wing role, but at least our starting 5 is back to being a potent unit.